Speculation: Simple question, Playoffs Yes or No

[Psycroptic86]

Yes. (I hope I'm right)

 

[Knave]

Yes. I think Ullmark holds up and gives us slightly above average goaltending. Jensen and Chabot make a good pairing. Our forward group isn't amazing but it's good enough given the last 3 years.

 

[Sun God Nika]

I think that they can. but if i had to put 1000$ of my own money on either outcome i would say they dont.

Not because of the talent, more so because how prone 16M of our cap is in Norris, and Chabot they really needed to find a way to get one of those guys out of here rolling into another season with both of them is going to land a similar result.

 

[hockey20000]

i gonna say no but atleast give me a wildcard chase into the last 3-5 games of season.

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

One injury to our D and we are f***ed.

 

[Micklebot]

One injury to our D and we are f***ed.

Why?

Other teams don't have top 4 caliber guys sitting in the AHL, we have Hamonic as a 7th D (hopefully healthier this year), Guenette as a callup. Addison might get a 2-way contract as a another callup option. Roos is a callup option with NHL experience, as is Davies. Then there's Matinpalo who I think had a very good first year in NA, I think he's a decent callup option.

That's 12 deep with guys that all have played at the NHL level.

 

[Cosmix]

i gonna say no but atleast give me a wildcard chase into the last 3-5 games of season.

That is quite a lot to ask for, considering the team shat the bed at the start of last season.

I hope the team is realistically (not just hopelessly mathematically) in the race for a playoff spot for at least 80% of the season (i.e., about 65 games) rather than out of it by Xmas.

 

[Micklebot]

That is quite a lot to ask for, considering the team shat the bed at the start of last season.

I hope the team is realistically (not just hopelessly mathematically) in the race for a playoff spot for at least 80% of the season (i.e., about 65 games) rather than out of it by Xmas.

Well, we shouldn't get league worst goaltending with Ullmark, that should keep us in a lot more games early on. We also should have all of Stu, Norris, and Pinto in the lineup from the start of the year, which really helps our center depth, especially if Stu doesn't injury his wrist in game 4 again.

 

[Xspyrit]

One injury to our D and we are f***ed.

Same thing if an injury happens to Stutzle, Tkachuk or Batherson. Offense would then be challenged.

We were 20th in GF/GP last season, a key injury could put us in trouble as we need to be 15th or better

Joseph 35 pts vs Amadio 27 pts
Tarasenko 41 pts (in 57 games) vs Perron 47 pts
Kelly 18 pts vs Gregor 12 pts
Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts (3 pts in 13 games for AC)
Chychrun 41 pts vs Jensen 14 pts
Brannstrom 20 pts vs Kleven 1 pt (in only 9 games)

Total : 180 pts vs 119 pts

My hope is on Pinto and Norris both playing most of the season and no major injury to key players. And Stutzle being able to play at his best

 

[bicboi64]

Same thing if an injury happens to Stutzle, Tkachuk or Batherson. Offense would then be challenged.

We were 20th in GF/GP last season, a key injury could put us in trouble as we need to be 15th or better

Joseph 35 pts vs Amadio 27 pts
Tarasenko 41 pts (in 57 games) vs Perron 47 pts
Kelly 18 pts vs Gregor 12 pts
Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts (3 pts in 13 games for AC)
Chychrun 41 pts vs Jensen 14 pts
Brannstrom 20 pts vs Kleven 1 pt (in only 9 games)

Total : 180 pts vs 119 pts

My hope is on Pinto and Norris both playing most of the season and no major injury to key players. And Stutzle being able to play at his best

If Stu goes down, I do think Pinto can step up. Same with Greig if one of our wingers go down

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Same thing if an injury happens to Stutzle, Tkachuk or Batherson. Offense would then be challenged.

We were 20th in GF/GP last season, a key injury could put us in trouble as we need to be 15th or better

Joseph 35 pts vs Amadio 27 pts
Tarasenko 41 pts (in 57 games) vs Perron 47 pts
Kelly 18 pts vs Gregor 12 pts
Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts (3 pts in 13 games for AC)
Chychrun 41 pts vs Jensen 14 pts
Brannstrom 20 pts vs Kleven 1 pt (in only 9 games)

Total : 180 pts vs 119 pts

My hope is on Pinto and Norris both playing most of the season and no major injury to key players. And Stutzle being able to play at his best

I think this can be made up without even considering Pinto, Norris & Stu being healthy. This list is a little misrepresented imo because you've taken raw numbers in some cases, not extrapolated averages.

Joseph's 35 were a career high and he paced at 28.5 previously, so no guarantee it's repeated. Amadio has also almost double Joseph's goals per 82 the last 3 seasons at 18v11, so there's some positive there, even if slightly less production, Amadio appears to be the better goal scorer.

Kelly's 18 were in 80 games compared to Gregor's 12 being in 63, so that's basically null. Gregor has averaged 21/82 in his NHL games.

Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts. Extrapolated over 82 games, the Cousins/Crookshank combo actually exceeds the other two in PPG by 3 points.

This one is not arguable, but they play different roles. It'll obviously be up to Chabot/Sanderson to step up and replace that production, or if one goes down, someone other than Jensen thrust into that role. IF Chabot can stay healthy and Sanderson takes a step forward, it's reasonable to think they can make that 27 points up.

Almost half of Brannstrom's relatively low production is made up if Kleven also played 76 games instead of 9, and Kleven was just breaking in, so who knows. 10-20 points is not a reasonable expectation for a bottom pairing D, even guys like Holden, JBD and Hamonic were meeting or pacing above 15.

 

[Micklebot]

I think this can be made up without even considering Pinto, Norris & Stu being healthy. This list is a little misrepresented imo because you've taken raw numbers in some cases, not extrapolated averages.

Joseph's 35 were a career high and he paced at 28.5 previously, so no guarantee it's repeated. Amadio has also almost double Joseph's goals per 82 the last 3 seasons at 18v11, so there's some positive there, even if slightly less production, Amadio appears to be the better goal scorer.

Kelly's 18 were in 80 games compared to Gregor's 12 being in 63, so that's basically null.

Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts. Extrapolated over 82 games, the Cousins/Crookshank combo actually exceeds the other two in PPG by 3 points.

This one is not arguable, but they play different roles. It'll obviously be up to Chabot/Sanderson to step up and replace that production, or if one goes down, someone other than Jensen thrust into that role. IF Chabot can stay healthy and Sanderson takes a step forward, it's reasonable to think they can make that 27 points up.

Almost half of Brannstrom's relatively low production is made up if Kleven also played 76 games instead of 9, and Kleven was just breaking in, so who knows. 10-20 points is not a reasonable expectation for a bottom pairing D, even guys like Holden, JBD and Hamonic were meeting or pacing above 15.

Its worth noting Jensen had 29 pts a year earlier when paired Orlov instead of Edmundson/Sandin

People have made the valid point that Chychrun will be in a better situation playing his right side with a defensive minded partner, well Jensen should also benefit playing with one of Chabot or Sanderson instead of Sandin or Edmundson.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Its worth noting Jensen had 29 pts a year earlier when paired Orlov instead of Edmundson/Sandin

People have made the valid point that Chychrun will be in a better situation playing his right side with a defensive minded partner, well Jensen should also benefit playing with one of Chabot or Sanderson instead of Sandin or Edmundson.

Good point. Jensen also had 21 the year before that and 14 in 53 the year before that. ~20 points seems reasonable.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

We’re making the f***ing playoffs, and whoever doesn’t think so is a loser and isn’t invited to the parade on Elgin in 3 years.

 

[Xspyrit]

I think this can be made up without even considering Pinto, Norris & Stu being healthy. This list is a little misrepresented imo because you've taken raw numbers in some cases, not extrapolated averages.

I was thinking Kleven and Crookshank not playing full seasons was offset by Tarasenko only playing 57 games for us

Joseph's 35 were a career high and he paced at 28.5 previously, so no guarantee it's repeated.

It doesn't matter as I am only looking at last season production. The question here is about who replace that production and what happens if a key forward goes down?

Amadio has also almost double Joseph's goals per 82 the last 3 seasons at 18v11, so there's some positive there, even if slightly less production, Amadio appears to be the better goal scorer.

I wish Joseph was still here (but doesn't look like it was possible?) but I have not much worries about Amadio, he became a solid all around bottom-6 forward due to going to one of the best classes in the NHL. He will replace Jos differently but adequately.

Kelly's 18 were in 80 games compared to Gregor's 12 being in 63, so that's basically null. Gregor has averaged 21/82 in his NHL games.

Another replacement I am not worried about, it was meant to calculate the overall difference to show that there was already a production downgrade and highlight how a key injury could hurt.

Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts. Extrapolated over 82 games, the Cousins/Crookshank combo actually exceeds the other two in PPG by 3 points.

Same thing, part of the overall list for the totals

This one is not arguable, but they play different roles. It'll obviously be up to Chabot/Sanderson to step up and replace that production, or if one goes down, someone other than Jensen thrust into that role. IF Chabot can stay healthy and Sanderson takes a step forward, it's reasonable to think they can make that 27 points up.

Yeah I'm counting on Chabot/Sanderson, would really like to see Chabot go 100% healthy with a defensive minded presence

Almost half of Brannstrom's relatively low production is made up if Kleven also played 76 games instead of 9, and Kleven was just breaking in, so who knows. 10-20 points is not a reasonable expectation for a bottom pairing D, even guys like Holden, JBD and Hamonic were meeting or pacing above 15.

Not too worried about it, Kleven has shown in the NCAA/AHL/NHL that he is not the offensive blackhole he was made out to be. I think he could maybe get 15 pts if he plays all season. Note that Brannstrom production was entirely coming at ES, which is valuable.

Overall, I don't think you perfectly understood where I was going with that. My fault as I didn't explain why I made theses calculations.

It was not about comparing these players 1 by 1 offensively but more the overall change. I don't think it's as a big downgrades as the numbers suggest (however Chyhcrun and Tarasenko are talented offensively) but it's already some production that will be to be made up and I think it will. But the problem I see is who would replace a Tkachuk/Stutzle/Batherson as there is alreadypressure on the group to score more to finish above 20th in GF/GP

 

[DylanSensFan]

I am going to say YES. Come at me bros.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I was thinking Kleven and Crookshank not playing full seasons was offset by Tarasenko only playing 57 games for us

That is fair but also not a total wash as Perron had about a 51 per 82 pace not that far off Tarasenko's 59 per 82 in Ottawa, so it's more like an 8 point spread. It was also one of Perron's least productive seasons of his career, but he is getting older, so not gonna argue that'll increase, although same applies to Tarasenko potentially.

It doesn't matter as I am only looking at last season production. The question here is about who replace that production and what happens if a key forward goes down?

My argument would be that had Joseph stayed, we wouldn't have been able to reliably assume he would repeat his own production last year since it exceeds his career averages by a fair bit. Their career numbers track pretty comparatively.

I wish Joseph was still here (but doesn't look like it was possible?) but I have not much worries about Amadio, he became a solid all around bottom-6 forward due to going to one of the best classes in the NHL. He will replace Jos differently but adequately.

They have different strengths for sure. I liked Joseph's speed, but for the 3rd line I like the idea of a guy that flirts with 20 goals per 82 instead of barely above 10.

Another replacement I am not worried about, it was meant to calculate the overall difference to show that there was already a production downgrade and highlight how a key injury could hurt.

Right, and it is a nothing burger agreed, but it's only a 3 point difference if Gregor played the same games as Kelly, which is in the territory of a bounce or two, not a difference in ability. And that was well below Gregor's career paces, so if we're hedging bets on the future, Gregor is a better bet as a more known quantity who produces 20+ per 82.

Same thing, part of the overall list for the totals

Do raw numbers matter when you're comparing something like a guy that played 13 games to a guy that played 80 though? That just seems like stretching to try to make a point rather than the very safe assumption that almost any 2 NHL bodies put in for Kubalik/Kastelic will easily recoup their production. If anything, the likelihood is to exceed their poor production combined. I get that's not what you're going for as outlined below, but I think this one is a bit silly because their production was very unspectacular and easily filled.

Yeah I'm counting on Chabot/Sanderson, would really like to see Chabot go 100% healthy with a defensive minded presence

Yes, that's obviously the plan. The PP time will be taken by them for sure and they've made their bed contractually. Chychrun has also been just as injury prone, if not more, and looked to be actively playing not to get hurt, so no guarantee with him had he stayed and tried to play effectively. I do think Jensen has shown to be at least capable offensively too, just depends what he's got left in the tank.

Not too worried about it, Kleven has shown in the NCAA/AHL/NHL that he is not the offensive blackhole he was made out to be. I think he could maybe get 15 pts if he plays all season. Note that Brannstrom production was entirely coming at ES, which is valuable.

I agree it has value that it was all even strength, but I still think it's relatively pedestrian, pretty easily recouped numbers for a bottom pairing D, even more defensively minded ones usually pot 12-20 points a year while not playing on the PP either.

Overall, I don't think you perfectly understood where I was going with that. My fault as I didn't explain why I made theses calculations.

It was not about comparing these players 1 by 1 offensively but more the overall change. I don't think it's as a big downgrades as the numbers suggest (however Chyhcrun and Tarasenko are talented offensively) but it's already some production that will be to be made up and I think it will. But the problem I see is who would replace a Tkachuk/Stutzle/Batherson as there is alreadypressure on the group to score more to finish above 20th in GF/GP

I feel like maybe I did understand but was sort of refuting the use of the exercise. You are technically correct with what you posted, but I think taking a reasonable look at each individually, it is clear, at least imo, that it's not a factor to be concerned with basically at all.

 

[ColinM]

I don't see a team ahead of them from last year that is meaningfully regressed so I will say no.

I think they will play meaningful games at the end of March.

 

[The Waffler]

Gonna be hard to miss when they go 82-0.