Should the Habs sign 2024 UFA William Nylander if they can?

[MXD]

In theory, it would be a fit, player-wise.

(...)

I'd still target no more than 9M for Nylander, personally, because he doesn't have that 100-point resumé to justify a payment of 10M or more. That would be an overpayment for Montreal, but we could afford it and make it work, I suppose, provided Nylander kept producing at a PPG pace without Tavares or Matthews.

Caufield - Suzuki - Nylander
Slafkovsky - Dach - Roy
Heineman - Monahan - Anderson
RHP- Dvorak - Gallagher

Translation for bolded : You don't really want him.

 

[Colezuki]

yes, we’re missing another top 6 fwd and will have the cap space

 

[Revansky]

Feel like we miss two elites forwards (ideally a 1C and 1W) and we don't have a 1D or 1 G either. If we get Nylander our chance of getting an 1 C would be greatly reduce and we would have to hope Suzuki and Dach would be enough offensively, which is risky. Feel like we should think about that kind of signings in one or two years maybe, get one or two higher end prospect offensively and let our better prospect develop. At the point in time you have the gallagher and anderson contract nearly finished and a clean state salary wise.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

We need offence. It's probably not coming from our prospect pool, chances of trading for another Dach are slim, and the top UFAs aren't lining up to play in Montreal. If Nylander is available and interested, we should pull the trigger on the kind of talented forward we haven't had in ages. Do you think another top forward will be there at the perfect time at the right price? I don't. If we can get him, grab him. Of course there are risks. So what?

That's exactly how I feel about it.

Fans are way too risk-averse thinking there will always be someone else and that we'll be able to get them when we're ready to get them.

You'd think people would learn from the Dubois situation. If you want someone, and they're interested and you can make the money work, do it.

Do you get starstruck every time you see a big name? Nylander will be 28, likely 36 when his next contract expires. You need to start using forward vision when you’re thinking of players. You’re thought process is like Bergevin was. Overexcited and without thought of the future. Same thing with you and Dubois.

On the contrary, Bergevin thought about the future way too much and was way too risk-averse.

 

[DAChampion]

The trend is the same reguardless. The players who maintain their play into there 30’s are outliers, not the norm. Eventually they start to slow down around 30, that’s just Father Time. Paying a player the most they’ve ever made on a contract that takes them well into their 30’s is a disaster waiting to happen, particularly for a team that isn’t even competing for a cup and isn’t going to for a while. Nylander will be in his 30’s before the Habs hopefully begin to contend and well on his way to declining.

Hard pass for me.

Regardless, you're using / not understanding the mathematics incorrectly.

The plot says that the average player peaks at age 23 -- and for what it's worth I am willing to completely believe that statistic. Let's assume that the average player peaks at age 23. Note that this includes a lot of players like Galchenyuk and Poehling, who peak before 23.

But we're not discussing the average player, we're discussing Nylander. Nylander is 27 now ... And he's peaking at 27 and counting. He hasn't declined in the past four years, he's actually gotten substantially better. So he's already an outlier.

Second, a long term contract already accounts for depreciation. If Nylander is signed for 7 years, and the cap increase is by 5%/year, then the contract at fixed cap hit allows for a 41% decrease in value.

Third, Hughes isn't supposed to just accumulate players, he's supposed to build a team. Every single championship team has players older than 27, so take a hint. A good GM needs to be able to identify the outliers.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Regardless, you're using / not understanding the mathematics incorrectly.

The plot says that the average player peaks at age 23 -- and for what it's worth I am willing to completely believe that statistic. Let's assume that the average player peaks at age 23. Note that this includes a lot of players like Galchenyuk and Poehling, who peak before 23.

But we're not discussing the average player, we're discussing Nylander. Nylander is 27 now ... And he's peaking at 27 and counting. He hasn't declined in the past four years, he's actually gotten substantially better. So he's already an outlier.

Second, a long term contract already accounts for depreciation. If Nylander is signed for 7 years, and the cap increase is by 5%/year, then the contract at fixed cap hit allows for a 41% decrease in value.

Third, Hughes isn't supposed to just accumulate players, he's supposed to build a team. Every single championship team has players older than 27, so take a hint. A good GM needs to be able to identify the outliers.

I understand it fine. Players decline over time and it begins to go into steep decline after 30. This is an average, not specific to Nylander and as I said, there are players that don’t follow this trend but they’re outliers.

As for Nylander improving and having his best year, I call that the “contract year” effect, where he will get paid millions of dollars more if he has a good year. Know who else was “peaking” in their late 20’s? Huberdeau and you’re seeing the train wreck his contract has become and he’s only just started it.

You can index league revenue growth all you want. $10+M for 7 years for a guy who’ll be in his mid 30’s for most of the contract can go south real quick. One nagging injury, natural, statistical decline, etc. can make this an anchor contract that you can’t trade out of.

Hughes and Gorton also both said they weren’t fans of going after UFAs. Too expensive for too long and likely paying for past performance. They even said they’re racking up picks and prospects specifically to use as trade chips to trade for younger talent like that better fits the core. While you do need some UFAs to build a championship team, you’re usually doing that when you’re actually competing and not rebuilding stage. So while they might go all in with a big name UFA in the future, now is not the time to tie up tens of millions of dollars in a UFA. There will be other Nylander type players that will become available when the Habs need that type of player. Nylander isn’t someone who you need to go after now. Wait until you’re a competitive team and go nuts.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

I said yes because we always need good player and cap space won't be an issue but I believe that if we drop +10M on a free agent player, it has to be a center or a #1 defenseman.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Regardless, you're using / not understanding the mathematics incorrectly.

The plot says that the average player peaks at age 23 -- and for what it's worth I am willing to completely believe that statistic. Let's assume that the average player peaks at age 23. Note that this includes a lot of players like Galchenyuk and Poehling, who peak before 23.

But we're not discussing the average player, we're discussing Nylander. Nylander is 27 now ... And he's peaking at 27 and counting. He hasn't declined in the past four years, he's actually gotten substantially better. So he's already an outlier.

Second, a long term contract already accounts for depreciation. If Nylander is signed for 7 years, and the cap increase is by 5%/year, then the contract at fixed cap hit allows for a 41% decrease in value.

Third, Hughes isn't supposed to just accumulate players, he's supposed to build a team. Every single championship team has players older than 27, so take a hint. A good GM needs to be able to identify the outliers.

Please articulate how I’m not understanding the chart…

 

[Kaiden Ghoul]

7×10

 

[CHwest]

That's exactly how I feel about it.

Fans are way too risk-averse thinking there will always be someone else and that we'll be able to get them when we're ready to get them.

You'd think people would learn from the Dubois situation. If you want someone, and they're interested and you can make the money work, do it.



On the contrary, Bergevin thought about the future way too much and was way too risk-averse.

Dubois sucks balls, we dodged a real bullet there.

 

[nhlfan9191]

If you wanna compete you have to go after a big name here and there. If all you bank on is prospects especially ours then you’ll be waiting for a while. Pretty much every winning team makes a splash via trade or FA. Once our D develops more what are they gonna have? Roy?

If we can move assets that we’ve built up in the rebuild for some talent, I’m all for it. Unrestricted Free Agency is typically a horrible time to get top end talent. Its a bunch of guys looking to cash out and they’re typically older then you’d like looking for term that will inevitably hurt you.

 

[calder candidate]

Nylander isn’t a player that will make you win in the playoff because he allergic to corners and defense… That being said it doesn’t mean he can be part of a winning team, he is probably the best UFA in the next 2 season, you weaken TO and exactly the high end talent we need to add. So if you get a shot you take it even if is contract isn’t in line with Suzuki and CC and it might screw you cap a bit.

 

[River Meadow]

Nylander isn’t a player that will make you win in the playoff because he allergic to corners and defense… That being said it doesn’t mean he can be part of a winning team, he is probably the best UFA in the next 2 season, you weaken TO and exactly the high end talent we need to add. So if you get a shot you take it even if is contract isn’t in line with Suzuki and CC and it might screw you cap a bit.

You're not wrong..

He's soft as butter, however he does show a lot more heart and ballz than Matthews and Lil' Mitchy Marner.

 

[calder candidate]

You're not wrong..

He's soft as butter, however he does show a lot more heart and ballz than Matthews and Lil' Mitchy Marner.

I don’t know if he show more ballz but he just seem less intimidated by big moments… looking at potential UFA there aren’t many 40g scorer, if we can get a Nylander that is the most difficult piece to add we would be instant contender because will be able to attract or trade the complimentary or missing pieces.

 

[Kennedys]

I don't want anything coming from the Leafs. That would mean 1st round exit until he retire anyway.

 

[ReHabs]

It's hard to imagine anybody in the fanbase who'd be unhappy after the Habs signed Nylander. He's as good as a UFA as it could get.

The issue is his caphit -- he'd get around 10-11m but that's a significant premium over Suzuki and Caufield. It pretty much guarantees the next big contract (Guhle, perhaps) will seek a maximum payout as well. I think Hughes has to act as if every upcoming contract will seek the max cap hit and operate accordingly. So that means finding ways to dump inefficient cap performers (eg Armia, Allen, Gallagher, Savard) in order to stay nimble and also to not be shy to get rid of players coming up for renewals. You need a pipeline of talent for that. I think we have it for defensive players but not on offence where it's next to barren after Roy.

In short and long: yes it's obvious that UFA Nylander would be a huge addition to any NHL roster and especially ours.

 

[Kimota]

For sure. But the Leafs will never let him go.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Dubois sucks balls, we dodged a real bullet there.

You're missing the point. It's not about the quality of the player. It's about the team having been interested in him and a bunch of fans going 'we can wait'.

No, you can't.

 

[ReHabs]

You're missing the point. It's not about the quality of the player. It's about the team having been interested in him and a bunch of fans going 'we can wait'.

No, you can't.

Guarantee you there are fans who said "phew, bullet dodged" when Tavares signed with the Leafs. As if the Price+Weber core could wait. Bergevin didn't have a Plan A much less a Plan B or Plan C. So dodging bullets actually means not doing anything and standing pat. How more many years of Suzuki and Caufield's prime will be squandered dodging bullets and not doing anything? One, two, or more?

Hughes couldn't get Pierre-Luc Dubois ("dodged a bullet") so he spent relatively big to acquire Newhook but I don't think they're comparable players in style or skill level. Hopefully there are plans to acquire Pettersson, Nylander, etc and if the plans fall through there are contingencies. Rebuilding doesn't mean we don't need to build.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Guarantee you there are fans who said "phew, bullet dodged" when Tavares signed with the Leafs. As if the Price+Weber core could wait. Bergevin didn't have a Plan A much less a Plan B or Plan C. So dodging bullets actually means not doing anything and standing pat. How more many years of Suzuki and Caufield's prime will be squandered dodging bullets and not doing anything? One, two, or more?

Hughes couldn't get Pierre-Luc Dubois ("dodged a bullet") so he spent relatively big to acquire Newhook but I don't think they're comparable players in style or skill level. Hopefully there are plans to acquire Pettersson, Nylander, etc and if the plans fall through there are contingencies. Rebuilding doesn't mean we don't need to build.

Yep, agreed. I liked a lot of what I saw of Dubois with the Jets last year and while I have seen very little with the Kings, quick look at their board and their fanbase seem massively disappointed with him this far though. With that said, I've liked Newhook so far and I don't think the price was paid was big at all. It was a really low 1st and a second. Based on what he's shown so far, I'd say that's well worth it, especially with the contract he's signed.

 

[ole ole]

Depends on the salary. if its 9M + then no.

The way he's playing he's easily worth 11 +

 

[ReHabs]

Yep, agreed. I liked a lot of what I saw of Dubois with the Jets last year and while I have seen very little with the Kings, quick look at their board and their fanbase seem massively disappointed with him this far though. With that said, I've liked Newhook so far and I don't think the price was paid was big at all. It was a really low 1st and a second. Based on what he's shown so far, I'd say that's well worth it, especially with the contract he's signed.

I think PLD will play better and at the very least play up to his existing level. I don't have any interest in his career now that there's little chance he'll ever be a Hab but it's not fair to call him or Tavares or anybody else who snubs the Habs as a "bullet" to be "dodged".

We need roster upgrades and should get them anywhere anytime. I think Newhook is already trending better than he did in Colorado but his game hasn't changed much. I hope he hits a higher gear -- then the trade will be really worthwhile. His cap hit is good, that's for sure.

 

[DAChampion]

The way he's playing he's easily worth 11 +

It's worth noting that it's Nylander's third year of being a PPG player in a row.

If it was the first year, I would not hope for the Habs' to sign him, as that would just be a contract year performance.

 

[BLNY]

I can't see this happening....

He's a good player but we don't have Matthews, Marner, Tavares or a PP for that matter, that tends to increases the stats line. He would cost more than CC and Suzuki at this point. This is not the time for the Habs to make the acquisition of such a player timing wise and also, the only reason he'd sign here as a UFA is if we overpay which we shouldn't.

In the pandemic years he was easily their best playoff forward. The straw that stirred the drink.

That said, I think he's going to command $10 million per on the market and I don't think you give a ppg player $10 million per. Also, beware the career year in a contract year.

 

[Lshap]

Guarantee you there are fans who said "phew, bullet dodged" when Tavares signed with the Leafs. As if the Price+Weber core could wait. Bergevin didn't have a Plan A much less a Plan B or Plan C. So dodging bullets actually means not doing anything and standing pat. How more many years of Suzuki and Caufield's prime will be squandered dodging bullets and not doing anything? One, two, or more?

Hughes couldn't get Pierre-Luc Dubois ("dodged a bullet") so he spent relatively big to acquire Newhook but I don't think they're comparable players in style or skill level. Hopefully there are plans to acquire Pettersson, Nylander, etc and if the plans fall through there are contingencies. Rebuilding doesn't mean we don't need to build.

Tavares is/was a very good player who would've really helped the Habs in their weakest area. In a magical what-if world, maybe Tavares would've made a difference on our comparably strong 2017 or 2021 rosters. Sure, he hasn't led the Leafs anywhere, but just because he's not McDavid doesn't mean he hasn't been an important piece. Tavares, like Nylander, represents an opportunity to make the Habs much better. Nylander's timeline isn't perfect and his cap hit will be a bit high, but he's a legit opportunity. If he's unavailable, so be it, but one way or another, Hughes' biggest challenge is to identify, pursue, and sign a forward of that calibre.