Should the Habs sign 2024 UFA William Nylander if they can?

[Habs]

i'm pretty sure he has the biggest head in pro sports , where do they find a helmet for him? is it 2 glued together?

 

[Habs10Habs]

i'm pretty sure he has the biggest head in pro sports , where do they find a helmet for him? is it 2 glued together?

 

[nhlfan9191]

No. Let other teams give retirement contracts. We’re in a rebuild. We aren’t desperate to compete now.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Having watched a ton of Nylander as I live close to Toronto I am going to have to vote no.

While he has improved on his flaws and isn't as soft as he used to be I don't trust him to compete for the duration of a long contract and I expect him to try and get as close as he can to a max contract.

I understand the allure as he absolutely has super star skills but he does disappear for stretches and has been an extremely polarizing player with fans and with Leafs management for his entire career. I am very weary of his increased compete level leading up to his UFA payday and would absolutely avoid him as I think he very well could revert back to the soft Willy who grossly under achieves and becomes his new teams whipping boy.

 

[Stoneburg]

Initially, I thought, yes, if you have a chance at a talent like that, take it. Then you think about it, and other posters are correct, we need a top guy, just not this guy, this early in the rebuild.

 

[Gustave]

Ok, but this begs the question; when will we ever have a potent enough offense to bring in such a player?

If we don’t force anything in the coming years, Suz and CoCo will be too far appart for what might become our “other” yet still undrafted offensive stars. The gap between waves of incoming players in our system in less then ideal.

We’ll have to do something offensively sometime guys, we need too.

 

[HuGort]

No, rumour has it he is asking for 10m long term. Be another Huberdeau contract

 

[the valiant effort]

Ok, but this begs the question; when will we ever have a potent enough offense to bring in such a player?

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Ok, but this begs the question; when will we ever have a potent enough offense to bring in such a player?

If we don’t force anything in the coming years, Suz and CoCo will be too far appart for what might become our “other” yet still undrafted offensive stars. The gap between waves of incoming players in our system in less then ideal.

We’ll have to do something offensively sometime guys, we need too.

I think we are close to that spot in the rebuild I just don't think that he is the guy that you take a gamble on as he has the potential to be an anchor that sinks the whole process. Maybe he continues on his upward trajectory and is a perennial 100 point guy......but the risk that he reverts back to a 65-70 point disappearing act is just too great, especially at the price that he will command.

 

[CHwest]

No, he would hurt our drafting and by the time we hopefully become contenders he will be to old to be a go to guy anymore. Love his game but he is not at the age to be in our "window".

 

[26Mats]

Some pros:
- The Habs are clearly missing an elite forward. Nylander has 230 points in his last 228 regular season games (going back to 2020-2021), that includes a slightly above-average goals-to-assist ratio.
- Nylander has 40 career points in 50 career playoff games.
- Appears to have a negligible injury history, and is 6 feet tall.
- Nylander is 27, and a 7-year contract would take him to 35. It is expected that the cap will go up increasingly in that time period.
- Nylander is a RW, so he pushes Gallagher, Ylonen, Armia, and Anderson down the depth charts.
- Would undermine a division rival.

Some cons:
- Safe to assume that this would cost 11+ million/year.
- Acquiring Nylander in 2024 would probably mean not acquiring Draisatl in 2025 or McDavid in 2026, or to go after Elias Petersson by trade or offersheet.

Personally I vote yes. That is because there is no way the Habs compete for anything until Hughes acquires one more elite forward, and he needs to pull the trigger when one is available. I'd be comfortable with Hughes going up to 12 million a year, give or take.

I predict the Leafs will convincexTavares to waive his NTC, give him to a team for free, and re'sign Nylander.

 

[Gustave]

I think we are close to that spot in the rebuild I just don't think that he is the guy that you take a gamble on as he has the potential to be an anchor that sinks the whole process. Maybe he continues on his upward trajectory and is a perennial 100 point guy......but the risk that he reverts back to a 65-70 point disappearing act is just too great, especially at the price that he will command.

I feel you, 100%.

My own personal line in the sand is this; if you are a PPG player, I’m sending you an offer no matter what. I want to achieve two things; build up something around our two known quantities (they can’t wait forever), and I want to use up my cap on worthy assets.

I want to avoid the Copp’s, Compher’s and all these weirdo signatures. I only want the best possible assets on the UFA market.

We aren’t in luck either in the “attractive” high end destination for high end UFA’s, so I’m shooting my shot every time one of them becomes available. We’ll be lucky to get one bite.

 

[Yasuo]

I think we are close to that spot in the rebuild I just don't think that he is the guy that you take a gamble on as he has the potential to be an anchor that sinks the whole process. Maybe he continues on his upward trajectory and is a perennial 100 point guy......but the risk that he reverts back to a 65-70 point disappearing act is just too great, especially at the price that he will command.

He has been an almost ppg since 2019 when he was 23 yo. I don't think it's fair to asume he will revert back to when he was 22 or younger. But that being said with the recent Huberdeau contract i dont think i would do it. Even tough i think Nylander skill set would allow him to produce with lesser talent than Toronto.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

No, he would hurt our drafting and by the time we hopefully become contenders he will be to old to be a go to guy anymore. Love his game but he is not at the age to be in our "window".

While I am against signing him, if he plays to his potential and is a 100 point player for the next 5 years he would greatly accelerate the rebuild and with the return of Dach and addition of Roy we would have two very strong offensive lines with a the potential to also have one of the best young two way D corps in the entire league early in this window.

This is definitely the shiny toy in the window that Nylander represents if you can ignore the obvious risks that he also presents.

 

[DAChampion]

I predict the Leafs will convincexTavares to waive his NTC, give him to a team for free, and re'sign Nylander.

The thread poll is under the assumption that Nylander makes it to UFA.

 

[DAChampion]

No because of this.

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…

hockey-graphs.com

View attachment 766755

That curve is irrelevant as it averages over many kinds of players. It's not targeted toward the relevant sample.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

incredible animation in that gif. bless classic Simpsons

anyway, i say yes. Nylander is very impressive and you gotta take several big swings, you can't always wait for the perfect pitch (Draisaitl or whoever).

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I feel you, 100%.

My own personal line in the sand is this; if you are a PPG player, I’m sending you an offer no matter what. I want to achieve two things; build up something around our two known quantities (they can’t wait forever), and I want to use up my cap on worthy assets.

I want to avoid the Copp’s, Compher’s and all these weirdo signatures. I only want the best possible assets on the UFA market.

We aren’t in luck either in the “attractive” high end destination for high end UFA’s, so I’m shooting my shot every time one of them becomes available. We’ll be lucky to get one bite.

Entirely agree about only targeting premiere assets and developing the supporting cast. The problem with Nylander is he will hold out for a huge over payment as someone will give it to him. He will need to be a consistent 100 point guy to be worth the investment and his past effort or lack thereof is a huge red flag for me.

I won't lie, it would be exciting to see us sign him but it would also be the move that could potentially derail the whole rebuild process if he becomes a grossly overpaid whipping boy that we can't move ala Huberdeau in Calgary.

I acknowledge his elite skill level and our need for such a talent but I also am aware of some scary character flaws that have been very evident watching him over the years in Toronto.

 

[Gustave]

Entirely agree about only targeting premiere assets and developing the supporting cast. The problem with Nylander is he will hold out for a huge over payment as someone will give it to him. He will need to be a consistent 100 point guy to be worth the investment and his past effort or lack thereof is a huge red flag for me.

I won't lie, it would be exciting to see us sign him but it would also be the move that could potentially derail the whole rebuild process if he becomes a grossly overpaid whipping boy that we can't move ala Huberdeau in Calgary.

I acknowledge his elite skill level and our need for such a talent but I also am aware of some scary character flaws that have been very evident watching him over the years in Toronto.

Yup, risks are evident here. Only, compared to CGY, we are young enough to try to get a 28 year old UFA and “make it work”.

CGY f***ed up by trading their young star for a seven (?) year older star. And then signing everyone with a pulse on the market.

Our makeup is HARD to read. I have no idea where our offense will come from if not from the exterior. So from my POV, sign the big ones.

 

[Scriptor]

The odds that he reaches free agency and there is any chance he comes to MTL seem remote. At his age he should want to compete for a cup.

The Habs should have interest in players like this and the money wouldn't scare me as much as the term. Hopefully, if they ever do land a big fish it will be a centre.

In theory, it would be a fit, player-wise.

He's a RW that is a good playmaker, but also can score. H'ed slide in perfectly next to Caufield and Suzuki. He can also play C and would add injury insurance to our roster.

He'd play through ages 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 and 34 on a 7-yr contract as an UFA that doesn't sign with his own team.

We ought to start being competitive as a playoff team with an eye on a long playoff push starting in 2027-2028, in year five from now,including this season, with four years left on Nylander's contract where he would be 31.

I reckon he'd cost at least 10.5M, as noted by another poster, but the Cap should rise to make that equivalent to an 8M-8.5M contract by the time we are angling for a Cup run in 5 years.

That should not be a problem, especially if it helped Suzuki and Caufield produce at levels that would make their own long term contracts look like highway robbery.

If Nylander helps Suzuki and Caufield both be consistent PPG players, nobody, including Caufield and Suzuki would complain about Nylander's salary.

Up and coming prospects, unless they produced at a PPG pace immediately upon arriving, or had that production later on and were imminent UFAs, would still have around Caufield and Suzuki's Cap figure as a long term contract target, IMO.

I'd still target no more than 9M for Nylander, personally, because he doesn't have that 100-point resumé to justify a payment of 10M or more. That would be an overpayment for Montreal, but we could afford it and make it work, I suppose, provided Nylander kept producing at a PPG pace without Tavares or Matthews.

Caufield - Suzuki - Nylander
Slafkovsky - Dach - Roy
Heineman - Monahan - Anderson
RHP- Dvorak - Gallagher

 

[the valiant effort]

There was a play against Tampa in round one last year that still stands out to me. Nylander picks up the puck in his own zone and starts speeding through the NZ. The ACC was quiet but now it’s buzzing a bit with Nylander showing some life. He chips in and gives chase, the dman collects behind the net and reverses back to Vasi’s left. Nylander arrives and just flies by, heads behind the net in the opposite direction lol. Dude, it’s the playoffs. Even if it was the end of the shift and he’s heading off, why pretend to chase?!

 

[Scriptor]

I think the biggest problem is that we are still going to be in full rebuild mode so we will want to have our young stars improve. Signing a player like this seems a bit premature.... but I do like him. Toronto should get rid of the pig face.

The only thing it does, as per your design, is actually help our young stars to improve, starting with Caufield and Suzuki,if he plays as the RW on their liner Slafkovsky and Dach,if heplayson their line.

We could end up with a top-6 asfollowsif we sign Nylander as an UFA and the advantage to that (or signing another UFA than Nylander with elite skills) is that it costs nothing in terms of player or draft assets:

Caufield - Dach - Nylander
Slafkovsky - Suzuki - Roy

Without knowing, ahead of time, what chemistry could develop, all options would be open:

Slafkovsky - Dach - Nylander
Caufield - Suzuki - Roy

 

[Gustave]

The only thing it does, as per your design, is actually help our young stars to improve, starting with Caufield and Suzuki,if he plays as the RW on their liner Slafkovsky and Dach,if heplayson their line.

We could end up with a top-6 asfollowsif we sign Nylander as an UFA and the advantage to that (or signing another UFA than Nylander with elite skills) is that it costs nothing in terms of player or draft assets:

Caufield - Dach - Nylander
Slafkovsky - Suzuki - Roy

Without knowing, ahead of time, what chemistry could develop, all options would be open:

Slafkovsky - Dach - Nylander
Caufield - Suzuki - Roy

Seeing your projected top 6, it dawns on me that we only have two known quantities in there.

One doesn’t exist, two of them aren’t NHL players and Dach is not fully established and just got to play a single game in a crucial season for him.

You just depressed me man

 

[Lshap]

We need offence. It's probably not coming from our prospect pool, chances of trading for another Dach are slim, and the top UFAs aren't lining up to play in Montreal. If Nylander is available and interested, we should pull the trigger on the kind of talented forward we haven't had in ages. Do you think another top forward will be there at the perfect time at the right price? I don't. If we can get him, grab him. Of course there are risks. So what?

 

[Scriptor]

Seeing your projected top 6, it dawns on me that we only have two known quantities in there.

One doesn’t exist, two of them aren’t NHL players and Dach is not fully established and just got to play a single game in a crucial season for him.

You just depressed me man

It's a rebuilding team. Plenty of uncertainty still, but talent coming up...