Pizza!Pizza!
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- Sep 25, 2018
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Red Wings fan here with the eye test stats. Wings played their worst games of the season with Greiss in net. I am not sure if he was unpopular in the locker room OR if they had total confidence in him to bail them out, but almost every game he was the starter were the Wings 'no effort' games. They literally let up and never tried or hustled. It got so bad that I stopped watching Wings games where Greiss started, but not because I didn't have faith in him. He's definitely lost a step from his prime but he still plays well and can stand on his head from time to time.Last year the Red Wings were 28th in xGA at 5 on 5. The Blues were 29th. The Wings were 31st in scoring chances against while the Blues were 27th. The gap was better for shots against (we were 23rd and they were 30th) and high danger chances (we were 22nd and they were 32nd).
We weren't as bad as the Wings defensively, but we weren't a good defensive team. And our improvement on the blueline happened to be a Red Wing last season. Playing behind a better team should help him, but I'm not remotely confident that his play was all on the D.
His GSAA at 5 on 5 was -10.35 and his goals saved above expected was -11.45 through just 31 games. He faced fewer rush attempts per 60 than Binner or Husso last year (80th most in the NHL, which is below the average) and his average goal distance was middle of the pack. He was still genuinely bad when you control for the quality of shots faced.
Goalies fall off hard in their mid 30s all the time. Halak was a .920 backup in Boston until he was suddenly .905 in his final year there as a 35 year old. Khudobin was a .930 backup who then took the Stars on a run to the final in 2020. The next year he sported a .905 at 34 and then last year he was a disaster when he wasn't on the IR.
I'm hopeful that last year was a one off on a bad team, but I wouldn't bet a ton of money on it. A healthy bounce back from last year could very well be him playing .900-.905 hockey, which isn't all that good.
He may not be better than Husso, but he shouldn't challenge Binny for the starter role and maybe that will help Binny stay in the correct headspace this year.
Greiss behind an NHL defense and Husso on the Wings is going to give a great assessment of both goalies.