Confirmed with Link: Sheldon Keefe to be named the next head coach of the New Jersey Devils

[vtdevils2k]

There's no sign of the assistants being kept around is there? Seems like he's evaluating?

He never said he was keeping the assistants. Was going to evaluate I believe.

Sarge was at the press conference and I assume will have some role with the Devils, however it doesn't mean he'll be a part of the coaching staff.

Would assume Keefe wants to bring in his own guys

 

[devilsblood]

I certainly think it will help with in zone coverages on D and where shots should come from in the o-zone. If they can focus on getting shots from those high danger areas while minimizing them on the other end it'll help. I can't imagine he's going to be like well Tomas Nosek has a 54CF let's give him PP1 time.

I guess it leads to the blending of coaching and mgmt, or maybe better put, coaching taking their que's from mgmt. Something baseball has very much evolved into.

In hockey, I think I'd rather have real coaches as coaches, with the analytics feeding them info. Granted the coaches have to be open to it, but I kind of feel that is a prerequisite these days.

Edit: I also think it's more then just getting shots form high danger areas. Thought the Florida OT goal is really the perfect example of what makes a great chance is the movement before the shot, more so then where the shot comes from. Tons of PP goals are scored from relatively "low danger areas" via cross ice one timers.

 

[Devils731]

I certainly think it will help with in zone coverages on D and where shots should come from in the o-zone. If they can focus on getting shots from those high danger areas while minimizing them on the other end it'll help. I can't imagine he's going to be like well Tomas Nosek has a 54CF let's give him PP1 time.

I think the public metrics on the Devils defense were overly kind to the Devils since the Devils problem stemmed from time and space given to opponents rather than shot location.

Internally, I imagine the Devils have much more robust and helpful models. I also assume they are updated to reflect whatever the team sees as their strengths and weaknesses to ensure they’re not missing out on a big piece of something that matters to the Devils.

I also think there is a general misconception that the analytics guys aren’t watching videotape as well. I don’t think the stigma that some have on analytics guys would be so severe if they thought of those guys as video analysts who bring visual aids.

——————

So I agree the analytic groups are probably helpful in most places, that they have much more in-depth evidence than we see publicly, and that they add much more physical hockey talk then some people realize.

As long as everyone knows who the chief is, having some additional voices is usually helpful to the chief.

 

[Bleedred]

Watching the full press conference , it's making me like this move even more. Keefe seems like a guy the locker room will respect right away and he does have a ton of coaching experience for being only in his early 40's. Tom just needs to get that starting goalie and a few depth players.

I'm glad we kept Sarge and McGill around as well assistants. @Bleedred buddy Rogalski's job looks to be safe for now though haha.

Sarge always felt like a lock to be kept. I’m not sure about McGill. I think he will be, but there’s always a chance that Keefe brings in his own guy and slots him into that spot.

I’d have to think Chris Taylor is definitely gone. That was Lindy’s guy he brought in.

And then there’s the spot that was left vacant by Green, but there’s a lot of teams that only have 3 assistants and a goalie coach. That’s how we normally rolled until 22-23.

If we don’t have an associate coach this year, we may only have 3 assistants not including the goalie coach. Which would be Sarge, McGill and a yet to be named assistant to replace Green. Sarge may even be bumped up somewhat and be the Chris Taylor replacement; while there really is no new hire to replace the spot occupied by Sarge.

 

[Bleedred]

I wouldn’t be suprised if they done away with the hire an ex head coach as an assistent

That seemed like a fail safe for Lindy if he was just to abrubtly retire or had to leave due to age

That could be true.

It will be interesting to see if we have someone under the title of associate coach here this year. We very well may not.

Last two years were the only time I remember ever having an associate coach with Brunette and then Green.

 

[devilsblood]

I think the public metrics on the Devils defense were overly kind to the Devils since the Devils problem stemmed from time and space given to opponents rather than shot location.

Internally, I imagine the Devils have much more robust and helpful models. I also assume they are updated to reflect whatever the team sees as their strengths and weaknesses to ensure they’re not missing out on a big piece of something that matters to the Devils.

I also think there is a general misconception that the analytics guys aren’t watching videotape as well. I don’t think the stigma that some have on analytics guys would be so severe if they thought of those guys as video analysts who bring visual aids.

——————

So I agree the analytic groups are probably helpful in most places, that they have much more in-depth evidence than we see publicly, and that they add much more physical hockey talk then some people realize.

As long as everyone knows who the chief is, having some additional voices is usually helpful to the chief.

I'm not sure how it's done, but I feel each organization's analytics department is gathering their own info, via watching film, as opposed to going over the numbers someone else is feeding them.

 

[BurntToast]

It was mentioned in the introduction, Keefe all ready started reaching out to players, and he needs to “develop” the coaching staff. I am not sure what that means, but I wouldn’t assume any of the assistants are safe.

 

[Guttersniped]

I like analytics in terms of player acquisition, but in terms of coaching? I dunno. Unless the idea is "this is how goals are scored, so let's work on those setups" but it still get's down to actually coaching guys up, or putting the right guys in those situations, to be able to perform "what works".


Wasn't Ruff ahead of the game in this regard?

And this year's team kind of points to that, in that the analytics(at least the one's we see) were better then the results, especially early in the year.

Corsi was named after Ruff’s goalie coach Jim Corsi.

From 2014: link

The first thing Jim Corsi wants the world to know? He didn’t invent the Corsi stat.

If that is a mystery to you, maybe you don’t know who Corsi is or what the stat named after him represents. If so, you haven’t been paying attention to the statistics revolution in the NHL that has made the last two months hockey’s summer of analytics.

Throughout the NHL, teams like the Maple Leafs, Devils, Penguins and Oilers have been gobbling up executives and statisticians who can walk them through what the blogosphere has been promoting for years — what some call analytics, or advanced statistics.

It’s growing social-media-powered movement with a fanatical following that believes there are means to measure a hockey player’s contribution to a team beyond the obvious stats of goals, assists and ice time.

And it all started with Corsi, hired this summer as goalie coach of the St. Louis Blues; he was previously with the Buffalo Sabres. He might otherwise be known as the WHA goalie who got a cup of coffee in the NHL with the Edmonton Oilers and, though born in Montreal, played on Italy’s national team.

But the stat named after him is his legacy.
“I’m humbled and happy because it gives coaches and fans and some reporters a way to try to address what a player’s contribution is to a game,” said Corsi, in an interview with thestar.com.

An outside-the-box thinker, Corsi was trying to measure just how busy his goalies were in a game. He didn’t believe the simple shots-against total — usually around 30 a game — was totally reflective of just how busy a goalie was. And since it’s up to the goalie coach to ensure the goalie is in shape, it was up to Corsi to find out how much workout time goalies needed between games.

So he added all shots and shot attempts, including ones that went wide, and ones that were blocked, figuring a goalie had to be in position or moving around regardless. He reasoned the shot total was more in the region of 50 to 70.

There are more shots and shot attempts in a game than goals, meaning the larger sample size of Corsi events is more reflective of a player’s performance than whether a player is on the ice for an unlucky bounce.
By measuring the various shots in 5-on-5 situations — like plus-minus — it puts all players on a level playing field. The stars don’t get the advantage that power plays give them. The grinders aren’t hurt by their time killing penalties. They can be measured with various linemates and against strong or weak opposition.

At the same time, the blogosphere was trying to find out what teams were best at puck possession. The NHL dropped time of possession as a stat in 2002. So bloggers turned to Corsi as its proxy, figuring if one team shot the puck more than the other team, it meant one team controlled the puck more than the other team.

The blogosphere realized that teams with good Corsi numbers typically went very deep in the playoffs. They told anyone who would listen — and, in the beginning, few did — that a good Corsi rating was a predictor of what was to come.

And the creator of Corsi considered calling stat “Regier” or “Ruff” because he didn’t know who was behind it and first heard it in a Darcy Regier interview. link

Legend has it that Vic Ferrari heard long-time Buffalo Sabre goalie coach Jim Corsi on a radio interview talking about measuring a goalie’s workload by tallying up not only shots on goal but missed shots and blocked shots as well and then Ferrari went into his secret hockey nerd lair in Edmonton, crunched the numbers, sprinkled some magic dust and, poof, Corsi was born, named for the cerebral goalie coach and former math teacher who inspired it.

Not true.

Ferrari told me it was actually then Buffalo Sabre general manager Darcy Regier he originally heard on the radio talking about shot attempts, not Jim Corsi. In fact, at that moment, when Ferrari was listening to Regier, he had never even heard of Jim Corsi.

Here’s what Ferrari told me in April:

I was going to call (the new metric) the “Regier” number. But it didn’t sound good; it didn’t seem right. Then I was going to call it the “Ruff” number (after then Sabres’ coach Lindy Ruff), but that obviously sounded bad. So I went to the Buffalo Sabre website and looked at a picture of a guy on their website, and Jim Corsi kind of fit the bill. So I called it a “Corsi number” and then I pretended it was (Corsi) I heard on the radio talking about it – that’s what I told people. That’s basically (how Corsi got named).

Ferrari had no idea back then, or even during our interview in April (until I told him), that Jim Corsi was actually the individual responsible for measuring a goalie’s workload by counting shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots and, therefore, Ferrari’s random naming of Corsi turned out to be oh so fortuitous, that Regier wouldn’t have been talking about it if not for Corsi.

“Oh, I had no idea of that,” Ferrari said. “I just liked his moustache.”

 

[Devils731]

I'm not sure how it's done, but I feel each organization's analytics department is gathering their own info, via watching film, as opposed to going over the numbers someone else is feeding them.

Oh yes, that’s intern or low man on the totem pole work. They definitely do create a lot of proprietary data nobody else has.

 

[Guttersniped]

He never said he was keeping the assistants. Was going to evaluate I believe.

Sarge was at the press conference and I assume will have some role with the Devils, however it doesn't mean he'll be a part of the coaching staff.

Would assume Keefe wants to bring in his own guys

If you look at staff turnover with NHL teams it typically shakes out the same way.

Some NHL coaches have one guy they’ve worked with who joins them in another job but it’s usually just one if any.

Staff will often stick around for a year but then often get fired. Sometimes they stay on though. This isn’t the NFL.

Not sure if it’s because they want to give them a shot, have some continuity, let their contract run out or they’re waiting for someone in particular to become available.

They have to replace Green, I find it hard to believe Chris Taylor gets that job.

I feel like Ryan McGill has a real shot at staying but who knows.

 

[Torontonian]

Forgot to mention in the previous post I made, the Devils better hope to god Keefe changes his stance on putting the 4th line out after you guys score a goal.

Nothing more infuriating was scoring a big goal to take the lead/tie the game and out comes the 4th line to get caved in by the other teams top line leading to a goal against/pressure in ur zone.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Forgot to mention in the previous post I made, the Devils better hope to god Keefe changes his stance on putting the 4th line out after you guys score a goal.

Nothing more infuriating was scoring a big goal to take the lead/tie the game and out comes the 4th line to get caved in by the other teams top line leading to a goal against/pressure in ur zone.

A lot of coaches use this tactic unfortunately

 

[Rhodes 81]

I'm not sure how it's done, but I feel each organization's analytics department is gathering their own info, via watching film, as opposed to going over the numbers someone else is feeding them.

There's a mixture of doing their own video work and getting data from third party companies (that are more sophisticated data than the guys you see on twitter). And then even when they get data from those companies, they have their own models they feed it in to. This is data regarding everything from variations of the stuff we use on here like xG and possession metrics, to super in depth analysis of whether shots were "good" or not, to how often a player is making the right read in their system. Just as much time is devoted to systems analysis, roster optimization from a contracts/salary distribution perspective, asset evaluation, contract projections, and basically anything else that could reasonably be quantified.

I have no secret insight into this past what I put here, but I've talked to a friend of a friend that works for a major league analytics department in another sport and they definitely opened my eyes to how much of the business they touch. Giving cute letter grades to each player is fun for us online but that's only a small part of what they do. And yes, they definitely work closely with the video guys.

 

[Torontonian]

A lot of coaches use this tactic unfortunately

You gotta take the chance when given the opportunity to put Ryan Reaves on the ice to defend Jack Hughes .

I'll never understand the logic behind it, but you are right.

 

[Guttersniped]

There's a mixture of doing their own video work and getting data from third party companies (that are more sophisticated data than the guys you see on twitter). And then even when they get data from those companies, they have their own models they feed it in to. This is data regarding everything from variations of the stuff we use on here like xG and possession metrics, to super in depth analysis of whether shots were "good" or not, to how often a player is making the right read in their system. Just as much time is devoted to systems analysis, roster optimization from a contracts/salary distribution perspective, asset evaluation, contract projections, and basically anything else that could reasonably be quantified.

I have no secret insight into this past what I put here, but I've talked to a friend of a friend that works for a major league analytics department in another sport and they definitely opened my eyes to how much of the business they touch. Giving cute letter grades to each player is fun for us online but that's only a small part of what they do. And yes, they definitely work closely with the video guys.

Video is huge part of the major stat services like Sportslogiq.

As I understand it, all that video is tied to stats, so you see every play on video behind every stat, watch every shift taken by a specific line, etc.

Sportslogiq has video from 26 different leagues, some of the big scouting sites use that and it’s an obvious advantage.

 

[devilsblood]

There's a mixture of doing their own video work and getting data from third party companies (that are more sophisticated data than the guys you see on twitter). And then even when they get data from those companies, they have their own models they feed it in to. This is data regarding everything from variations of the stuff we use on here like xG and possession metrics, to super in depth analysis of whether shots were "good" or not, to how often a player is making the right read in their system. Just as much time is devoted to systems analysis, roster optimization from a contracts/salary distribution perspective, asset evaluation, contract projections, and basically anything else that could reasonably be quantified.

I have no secret insight into this past what I put here, but I've talked to a friend of a friend that works for a major league analytics department in another sport and they definitely opened my eyes to how much of the business they touch. Giving cute letter grades to each player is fun for us online but that's only a small part of what they do. And yes, they definitely work closely with the video guys.

As an add on, If I'm an old school hockey guy who realizes the importance of analytics, and I think most do at this point, I'm telling the analytics what to look for. If I want a team to play a certain way, and that requires xyz, find me guys who give xyz consistently. Has to be a two way street, a heavily trafficked two way street.

Video is huge part of the major stat services like Sportslogiq.

As I understand it, all that video is tied to stats, so you see every play on video behind every stat, watch every shift taken by a specific line, etc.

Sportslogiq has video from 26 different leagues, some of the big scouting sites use that and it’s an obvious advantage.

Public site?

 

[Guttersniped]

As an add on, If I'm an old school hockey guy who realizes the importance of analytics, and I think most do at this point, I'm telling the analytics what to look for. If I want a team to play a certain way, and that requires xyz, find me guys who give xyz consistently. Has to be a two street, a heavily trafficked two way street.


Public site?

Sportslogiq? Alas, no, and it’s a B2B thing for teams, broadcasters, scouting sites, etc.

 

[devilsblood]

Sportslogiq? Alas, no, and it’s a B2B thing for teams, broadcasters, scouting sites, etc.

Just went to their job openings page, unfortunately for them I have no qualifications.

 

[HellOnIce]

Brylin is the Don Zimmer.

 

[Bleedred]

Forgot to mention in the previous post I made, the Devils better hope to god Keefe changes his stance on putting the 4th line out after you guys score a goal.

Nothing more infuriating was scoring a big goal to take the lead/tie the game and out comes the 4th line to get caved in by the other teams top line leading to a goal against/pressure in ur zone.

I think we're used to that. A lot of coaches do this around the league, which sometimes is and sometimes isn't the worst idea, depending on what kind of a 4th line you have. Ruff would often times do it (From what I remember) with the BMW line in 22-23.

With the 4th lines we've had the last two years (minus from March onward of this past year) the 4th line after a goal isn't really a bad thing.

However, with MacDermid definitely being a regular, that's gonna make the 4th line bad and useless, no matter who else is on the line with him.

Although, I wouldn't want MacDermid to be on the ice at any point. Right after a goal is scored or otherwise.

 

[Bleedred]

You gotta take the chance when given the opportunity to put Ryan Reaves on the ice to defend Jack Hughes .

I'll never understand the logic behind it, but you are right.

Kurtis MacDermid against Auston Matthews will be extremely infuriating.

 

[My3Sons]

That could be true.

It will be interesting to see if we have someone under the title of associate coach here this year. We very well may not.

Last two years were the only time I remember ever having an associate coach with Brunette and then Green.

So apparently you are going to be the goalie coach. From what I understand it was the design of your coaching office that sold the team on your approach. Thanks for sharing the picture with us.

 

[Guadana]

So apparently you are going to be the goalie coach. From what I understand it was the design of your coaching office that sold the team on your approach. Thanks for sharing the picture with us.

View attachment 877113

Oh, playroom of my childhood.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

How much do coaches get paid at the most?

Pandolfo would have been a great hire but I would have been shocked if he was willing to leave BU. He’s got a great gig, salary and benefits, no travel and none of the bullshit of the NHL. The only way to have lured him would have been to offer so much money and term that he simply couldn’t refuse. Enough to set him up more or less for life. 8 million or more guaranteed, that sort of thing. Not worth it. I don’t think many pro coaches get that sort of compensation. But I don’t know.

According to CapFriendly, Pandolfo earned almost $13 million during his playing career. Assuming he invested fairly soundly and was not foolish with his spending, he is already "set for life".

However, the stability of the college game relative to pro hockey (though not what it once was) makes BU a more attractive option; particularly with the current ownership group and state of the Devils' front office.

 

[Bleedred]

How much do coaches get paid at the most?

Pandolfo would have been a great hire but I would have been shocked if he was willing to leave BU. He’s got a great gig, salary and benefits, no travel and none of the bullshit of the NHL. The only way to have lured him would have been to offer so much money and term that he simply couldn’t refuse. Enough to set him up more or less for life. 8 million or more guaranteed, that sort of thing. Not worth it. I don’t think many pro coaches get that sort of compensation. But I don’t know.

Perhaps I'm overestimating here, but I'd think he's probably getting paid anywhere between $500-$800k a year as a college head coach. Maybe $800k is probably more than what he makes? I'd have to assume it's at least $500k for a school with a prestigious hockey program like BU.

Probably not in the million dollar range though.

I'd say the minimum wage for an NHL head coach these days/entry level NHL head coach probably starts around a million per.

Pando is probably making more money as the BU head coach than he would be as an NHL assistant coach. Some of them get paid less than half a million per, especially if they're not very experienced/in their first gig in the league.

He actually was an assistant coach for the Bruins for quite a while before switching to college hockey.

Maybe someone like Red Berenson who was a college head coach for like 50 years was in the million dollar a year range.