Confirmed with Link: Sheldon Keefe extended 2 years

[Zybalto]

TB is the Champs and they should be the measuring stick for all teams.

However, TB might have missed the playoffs 5 seasons ago, and over the past 10 seasons, they didn't qualify three times and didn't advance past the first round TWICE and those 5 years didn't happen in a row. While also appearing in 3 Cups finals and winning two of them and losing two Conf Finals. Their worst stretch were missing playoff for two years and then losing in the first round. After that it is Cup Finals, Conf Finals, missed playoffs, Conf Finals, 1st round exits and two Cup wins.

TB has built for long term success because of a combination of factors, drafting(they always seem to have players even late round picks playing in the WJC and also doing well for their respective countries), developing, trading players to fill holes and also trading players for assets.

Point I am trying to make is that TB didn't go through 5 first round exits with the existing core. (Don't think any Cup teams went through 5 1st round exits in a row with the same core) Also if you look back at that three years stretch, only Hedman and Stamkos were playing in the first year, then Killhorn and Palat joined them the second year and the year they finally made the playoffs again, TJ and Kuch joined the team. Now a lot of that had to do with changing of the old guards. The kept building and changing till they win the Cup.
The thing is Dubas kept moving the supporting pieces around but if the results remain the same then maybe the core is just not the right mix, something will be done about it. Ultimately, Dubas or any MGT job needs to do pull the trigger on a trade or two of the core in order to help the Leafs win the Cup.

How did Tampa win the cup last year though?

I mean, we can talk ourselves in circles about the team in front of the goaltending in elimination games but I still feel the need to re-post this for some reason:

No advanced stats, just the plain shots, points and outcomes.

Tampa in elimination games this year:

Against the Panthers: Won 4-0
Against the Hurricanes:Won 2-0
Against the Isles: Lost 3-2
Against the Isles: Won 1-0
Against the Habs: Won 1-0

Tampa outshoots their opposition 134-125

Total Goals scored: 10 Goals allowed: 3
Kucherov/Point/Stamkos/Hedman combined for 9 points in 5 games but held scoreless in 2.

Points/game in series-clinching games for the Tampa stars:
Point: 0.8
Kucherov: 0.6
Stamkos: 0.2
Hedman: 0.2

Opposition Goaltending: .866%
Tampa Goaltending: .958% (Wins playoffs MVP)

Total Cap hit for star players + goaltending: 42,123,000

Here are the Leafs last 5 playoff series-deciding games over the 2 years:

Against the Jackets: Win 4-3 (OT)
Against the Jackets: Lost 3-0
Against the Habs: Lost 4-3 (OT)
Against the Habs: Lost 3-2 (OT)
Against the Habs: Lost 3-1

Toronto outshoots their opposition 175-132

Total Goals scored: 10 Goals allowed: 16
Matthews/Nylander/Marner combined for 16 points in 5 games but held scoreless in 2.

Points/game in series-clinching games for the Leafs stars:
Matthews: 1.0 (PPG)
Nylander: 1.0 (PPG)
Marner: 0.8
Tavares: 1.0 (PPG, missed last 3 games with injury)

Opposition Goaltending: .943% (Jackets team MVP goaltending sets NHL save playoff record against Tampa the next game, Habs team MVP goaltending leads Cinderella run to the finals)
Leafs Goaltending: .879%

Total Cap hit for star players + goaltending: 42,155,616(with Campbell) - 45,655,616 (with Andersen)

I mean, what stands out the big reason these two teams had such different outcomes in their elimination games? I could do more math on support scoring but lets just say it would tilt hard towards Tampa>Toronto in this area to go along with their healthier team advantage.

With the NHL back to somewhat normal, there are going to be surprises this year and Toronto, provided the new pickups perform as well as they are looking early, look primed to go on a real run. I wouldn't be selling off when this team is looking so strong, from coaching to an absolutely elite core in their primes.

 

[zeke]

I wouldn’t say your upgrades that you just listed are actually upgrades. We have had no more success then with the guys they replaced. Shouldn’t upgrades make you better ?

You don't think Tavares Muzzin Brodie Holl are upgrades on Kadri Gardiner Hainsey Zaitsev?

 

[Gabriel426]

How did Tampa win the cup last year though?

I mean, we can talk ourselves in circles about the team in front of the goaltending in elimination games but I still feel the need to re-post this for some reason:

No advanced stats, just the plain shots, points and outcomes.

Tampa in elimination games this year:

Against the Panthers: Won 4-0
Against the Hurricanes:Won 2-0
Against the Isles: Lost 3-2
Against the Isles: Won 1-0
Against the Habs: Won 1-0

Tampa outshoots their opposition 134-125

Total Goals scored: 10 Goals allowed: 3
Kucherov/Point/Stamkos/Hedman combined for 9 points in 5 games but held scoreless in 2.

Points/game in series-clinching games for the Tampa stars:
Point: 0.8
Kucherov: 0.6
Stamkos: 0.2
Hedman: 0.2

Opposition Goaltending: .866%
Tampa Goaltending: .958% (Wins playoffs MVP)

Total Cap hit for star players + goaltending: 42,123,000

Here are the Leafs last 5 playoff series-deciding games over the 2 years:

Against the Jackets: Win 4-3 (OT)
Against the Jackets: Lost 3-0
Against the Habs: Lost 4-3 (OT)
Against the Habs: Lost 3-2 (OT)
Against the Habs: Lost 3-1

Toronto outshoots their opposition 175-132

Total Goals scored: 10 Goals allowed: 16
Matthews/Nylander/Marner combined for 16 points in 5 games but held scoreless in 2.

Points/game in series-clinching games for the Leafs stars:
Matthews: 1.0 (PPG)
Nylander: 1.0 (PPG)
Marner: 0.8
Tavares: 1.0 (PPG, missed last 3 games with injury)

Opposition Goaltending: .943% (Jackets team MVP goaltending sets NHL save playoff record against Tampa the next game, Habs team MVP goaltending leads Cinderella run to the finals)
Leafs Goaltending: .879%

Total Cap hit for star players + goaltending: 42,155,616(with Campbell) - 45,655,616 (with Andersen)

I mean, what stands out the big reason these two teams had such different outcomes in their elimination games? I could do more math on support scoring but lets just say it would tilt hard towards Tampa>Toronto in this area to go along with their healthier team advantage.

With the NHL back to somewhat normal, there are going to be surprises this year and Toronto, provided the new pickups perform as well as they are looking early, look primed to go on a real run. I wouldn't be selling off when this team is looking so strong, from coaching to an absolutely elite core in their primes.

Let me ask you a question would you trade Marner, AM or Willie for someone like Vas?

 

[zeke]

Let me ask you a question would you trade Marner, AM or Willie for someone like Vas?

I most definitely would not.

 

[Zybalto]

I don't think Tampa gets involved unless it is at minimum Marner+Nylander type deal and I dont think the Leafs are willing to go that far. Vasy is so much better than every other keeper they have in the system it would gut the team even if they got a massive package from the Leafs.

Personally, I would be willing to go as far as a Nylander+ Sandin+Amirov+Robertson+more prospects/picks for Vasy+lesser prospects/picks type deal for a stud prime goalie like him but it's just such a high risk trade for both sides. Leafs would gut their future and what if Vasy gets hurt? Tampa would gut their crease and what if they become irrelevant due to poor goalkeeping and not in the cup picture (and prospects/picks dont work out).

With the Leafs a much better defensive team and going tandem (a la Islanders), lets see how a hopefully far healthier team shakes out this year.

 

[Gabriel426]

It is a hypothetical situation.

Point I am trying to make is that nobody is untouchable on the Leafs if the right deal present itself bc they are a team who lost in the 1st round for the past 5 years.

What if Avs ask for MM for Mack bc they don’t think they can resign Mack but Mack is willing to extend 11mil for 8 yrs with the Leafs. Let’s not get into the contract details but just the hockey side.

Dubas’s job is to build a team that could Win the Cup. Right now, he is betting on the guys to do that. I hope they do too bc they don’t lack the talents. They just need to understand talents is not the only thing that wins in playoffs, also hard work is the minimum you need to out hard the opponents.

 

[Zybalto]

It is a hypothetical situation.

Point I am trying to make is that nobody is untouchable on the Leafs if the right deal present itself bc they are a team who lost in the 1st round for the past 5 years.

What if Avs ask for MM for Mack bc they don’t think they can resign Mack but Mack is willing to extend 11mil for 8 yrs with the Leafs. Let’s not get into the contract details but just the hockey side.

Dubas’s job is to build a team that could Win the Cup. Right now, he is betting on the guys to do that. I hope they do too bc they don’t lack the talents. They just need to understand talents is not the only thing that wins in playoffs, also hard work is the minimum you need to out hard the opponents.

Hard work is the whole reason to give the core a chance here. The Matthews/Marner line completely outplayed and outworked anyone else in the series IMO. Having only 9 points to show for it really sucks I know but of all the strange narratives out there, hard work shouldn't be pushed here.

 

[Gabriel426]

Hard work is the whole reason to give the core a chance here. The Matthews/Marner line completely outplayed and outworked anyone else in the series IMO. Having only 9 points to show for it really sucks I know but of all the strange narratives out there, hard work shouldn't be pushed here.

I didn’t say they are lazy or don’t work hard. They just need to work harder bc they still could not get the job done.
For example, my kids getting 90s in all their classes are great but if they still cannot get into the Uni programs bc other kids who applied are averaging 96, my kids need to work harder bc their completions are higher than expected.
In hockey or in life, if you don’t get the results, it means you are not good enough. And if you really want it, you just need to put your head down and work even harder for it.

 

[Zybalto]

I didn’t say they are lazy or don’t work hard. They just need to work harder bc they still could not get the job done.
For example, my kids getting 90s in all their classes are great but if they still cannot get into the Uni programs bc other kids who applied are averaging 96, my kids need to work harder bc their completions are higher than expected.
In hockey or in life, if you don’t get the results, it means you are not good enough. And if you really want it, you just need to put your head down and work even harder for it.

Fair enough but lets say they only get in if other kids also average 90's and they average .879?

 

[Racer88]

You don't think Tavares Muzzin Brodie Holl are upgrades on Kadri Gardiner Hainsey Zaitsev?

Individually I think they are, but as a team they have done no better.
I know I am beating a dead horse but I can’t help but feel that the 11 million for Tavares distributed to other positions might have been a better use as far as team success goes.
That contract is something I feel cannot be ignored when discussing team success

 

[Racer88]

Hard work is the whole reason to give the core a chance here. The Matthews/Marner line completely outplayed and outworked anyone else in the series IMO. Having only 9 points to show for it really sucks I know but of all the strange narratives out there, hard work shouldn't be pushed here.

I guess they were just unlucky……..unlike a Willy, Spezza and Kerfoot.

 

[Zybalto]

I guess they were just unlucky……..unlike a Willy, Spezza and Kerfoot.

but maybe not quite as unlucky as Mikheyev, Engvall, Thornton, Simmonds, Hyman only combining for 4 points over 7 games (and certainly not as unlucky as poor Tavares)?

 

[Racer88]

but maybe not quite as unlucky as Mikheyev, Engvall, Thornton, Simmonds, Hyman only combining for 4 points over 7 games (and certainly not as unlucky as poor Tavares)?

I hear ya………that Tavares hit was bad but it could have been a lot worse

 

[The CyNick]

I know. That is reason I correctrd you. You thought there was a downward trend.

Regular season the team went from franchise best to regular season declines under Dubas. In the playoffs the previous regime had them on an upward trend getting to seven games against a Boston team with more points.

Team then went seven game against Boston, then missed 16 team round of the playoffs, then was beat 3 straight to a team 18 points worse than them.

Seems like a downward trend to me.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Regular season the team went from franchise best to regular season declines under Dubas. In the playoffs the previous regime had them on an upward trend getting to seven games against a Boston team with more points.

Team then went seven game against Boston, then missed 16 team round of the playoffs, then was beat 3 straight to a team 18 points worse than them.

Seems like a downward trend to me.

They won a division this Year. Still lost in 7

 

[The CyNick]

They won a division this Year. Still lost in 7

A fake division, which was far and away the worst in hockey, and in only 56 games. If that's what this organization calls progress, that's really sad. And imagine bragging about taking an 18 point inferior team to seven games.

 

[ACC1224]

They won a division this Year. Still lost in 7

Do you believe the team feels they made progress this past season?

 

[Leaf Fans]

Do you believe the team feels they made progress this past season?

Yes, I think so. I also think the team feels that they could have and should have done better. The playoff loss what a bitter pill to swallow for the team in my opinion.

 

[Leaf Fans]

A fake division, which was far and away the worst in hockey, and in only 56 games. If that's what this organization calls progress, that's really sad. And imagine bragging about taking an 18 point inferior team to seven games.

It was a real division. It was also the only division they could win and they did. No one is bragging from the Leafs or their fans. Besides, it was the team is that finished 18 points behind the Leafs that took us to seven games on their way to the Cup final. They might be the ones bragging in your imagination.

 

[zeke]

Do you believe the team feels they made progress this past season?

Yep the defense improvement was tremendous.

 

[The CyNick]

It was a real division. It was also the only division they could win and they did. No one is bragging from the Leafs or their fans. Besides, it was the team is that finished 18 points behind the Leafs that took us to seven games on their way to the Cup final. They might be the ones bragging in your imagination.

It's not real in the sense of it being a shot deal gimmick. It was also a terrible division. So it's like bragging about being the tallest, whats the PC word these days, little person?

And Shanny was bragging about it in the Amazon series. Tried to sell it as success of the season. Shows this organization is content with be okay, just okay. And lastly some poster brought it up here to say it's evidence the team is heading upwards, which is comical, hence my response.

 

[The CyNick]

They won a division this Year. Still lost in 7

So in your mind the measuring stick for the team is winning a division that far and away the worst in hockey?

Context is king. If the NHL for some reason created a division with the bottom 6 teams from the previous year plus the Leafs, and the Leafs won that division, you would be satisfied with that? If I were running the Leafs, I wouldn't.

Then going into the playoffs, the Leafs under Dubas lost to Boston (good team), Columbus (average team at best and not even in the round of 16 mind you), and Montreal (18 points behind Leafs). You think the quality of those teams is increasing or decreasing? The correct answer is decreasing.

Under Lou, the Leafs were like Andre de Grasse trying to catch the best sprinters in the world and getting closer every year. Under Dubas its like they took Andre de Grasse and said let's race against middle school kids instead and he still fails to win a race, but people are bragging that at least he was close.

 

[The CyNick]

Yep the defense improvement was tremendous.

Playing exclusively garbage teams.

 

[zeke]

There's no evidence that the Canadian division was notably weak. And it was clearly better than, say, the pacific has been in years.

Also had a good argument to be considered the best offensive division of all of them last year.

 

[ToneDog]

It's not real in the sense of it being a shot deal gimmick. It was also a terrible division. So it's like bragging about being the tallest, whats the PC word these days, little person?

And Shanny was bragging about it in the Amazon series. Tried to sell it as success of the season. Shows this organization is content with be okay, just okay. And lastly some poster brought it up here to say it's evidence the team is heading upwards, which is comical, hence my response.

Hey we lost to the SC finalist, not a team that finished 18 points behind us and probably does not make the playoffs this year. Get your blue and white glasses on straight.