Confirmed with Link: Sharks trade 20th pick to Sabres for 27th and D Michael Kesselring (RFA)

[The Nemesis]

What if Lin is drafted at 19 and turns out to be an all star?

then I won't feel so bad because we never had a chance even before this trade. But if he somehow makes it to 20 or beyond...

 

[zombie kopitar]

yea i am hoping one of two pop in camp but i can easily see them signing a stop gap vet to create competition. heck maybe they resign klingy to give Poky more time lol.

Ew on Klingberg. Polkhamp got that dog in him, just throw him to the wolves and see if he can hack it or not. He's played at high enough levels where he deserves the chance

 

[beanie]

We made the Kesselring in only 7 parsecs. I mean draft picks.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Actually, the more I analyze this move, the more I think Spence is exactly the next move. Grier got his poor man's K'Andre Miller. Now, he can go get his gostisbehere.

I bet we see the Spence trade soon. Ottawa is shopping him and his profile fits us perfectly. Offensively gifted 25 year old with big upside, respectable defensively, but not yet at the price of a bona fide top pair guy.

Can Spence become our Adam Fox? I could easily see it. He's now my top realistic trade target as he also fits the Grier profile to a T.

Hell, I'd be OK trading that #27 pick for him straight up (though I bet grier could do cheaper). Spence fits the mold quite nicely.

Having our entire D age 20-26 (except orlov) and signed to 3+ year terms at low cap hits is very attractive as they enter their primes. And given the relatively low cap hits they will have, Grier will still have the flexibility to make further moves if they don't work out as planned or if he deems ready to take a big swing.

Kesselring and Spence for a combined 7.5M for the next 3+ seasons sounds pretty good, and a whole lot better than klingberg and leddy for the same price or Ferraro for just under that.

I would be ecstatic if Spence was our next move. Him and Kesselring would be a huge upgrade.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[Surfer Dude]

then I won't feel so bad because we never had a chance even before this trade. But if he somehow makes it to 20 or beyond...

ironically i'd be like what's wrong with him why is he dropping to 20 since there must be something wrong with him clearly and skip him lol /s

 

[Hodge]

Not by good scouting teams, and the value is in paying below market value.

Sherwood was paying above market value in both assets, and salary for a declining asset.

Spending the 20th pick on a player with a 50/50 chance of being as good as Sherwood in 5 years = below market value

Trading two mid 2nds for current Kiefer Sherwood = above market value

???

 

[Surfer Dude]

I would be ecstatic if Spence was our next move. Him and Kesselring would be a huge upgrade.

if i squint real hard with my teal glasses, Kesslring is our KAndre Miller and Spence is Gotis...

 

[Hodge]

Actually, the more I analyze this move, the more I think Spence is exactly the next move. Grier got his poor man's K'Andre Miller. Now, he can go get his gostisbehere.

I bet we see the Spence trade soon. Ottawa is shopping him and his profile fits us perfectly. Offensively gifted 25 year old with big upside, respectable defensively, but not yet at the price of a bona fide top pair guy.

Can Spence become our Adam Fox? I could easily see it. He's now my top realistic trade target as he also fits the Grier profile to a T.

Hell, I'd be OK trading that #27 pick for him straight up (though I bet grier could do cheaper). Spence fits the mold quite nicely.

Having our entire D age 20-26 (except orlov) and signed to 3+ year terms at low cap hits is very attractive as they enter their primes. And given the relatively low cap hits they will have, Grier will still have the flexibility to make further moves if they don't work out as planned or if he deems ready to take a big swing.

Kesselring and Spence for a combined 7.5M for the next 3+ seasons sounds pretty good, and a whole lot better than klingberg and leddy for the same price or Ferraro for just under that.

Kesselring, Spence, Dickinson and Mukhamadullin are all third pairing defensemen at this point. Who's playing top 4 minutes?

 

[Zarzh]

Spending the 20th pick on a player with a 50/50 chance of being as good as Sherwood in 5 years = below market value

Trading two mid 2nds for current Kiefer Sherwood = above market value

???

They have been shitty at drafting past the lottery but a good drafting team will end up drastically beating the market with 20th overall picks over any reasonable sample size, giving them a fairly high expected value.

Kiefer Sherwood at 5.5 million is drastically different than him on an ELC, and that's assuming that he keeps up his current level of play for his contract (which is unlikely).

 

[timorous me]

You can't keep planning for 5-10 years down the road; getting a guy who could be an in-his-prime 2nd pairing RD at the expense of dropping from 20 to 27 is exactly the kind of move this team needs to be making right now.

Guys picked in the 20s in this year's draft are going to be 5+ years down the road and if they make it, odds are high they won't be as good as Kesselring is now. There's soooooo little actual downside to this move if you're looking at it logically from the context of where the Sharks are right now in their rebuild.

 

[zombie kopitar]

Kesselring, Spence, Dickinson and Mukhamadullin are all third pairing defensemen at this point. Who's playing top 4 minutes?

I mean if you have a competent d squad that are young and improving you let them compete for it. Believe it or not players can get better in that environment

 

[hohosaregood]

You can't keep planning for 5-10 years down the road; getting a guy who could be an in-his-prime 2nd pairing RD at the expense of dropping from 20 to 27 is exactly the kind of move this team needs to be making right now.

Guys picked in the 20s in this year's draft are going to be 5+ years down the road and if they make it, odds are high they won't be as good as Kesselring is now. There's soooooo little actual downside to this move if you're looking at it logically from the context of where the Sharks are right now in their rebuild.

definitely. outside of the top prospects of a draft, you're generally expecting a D+5 timeline for a prospect to maybe establish themselves in the NHL.

 

[Chainshot]

The local Sabre and Shark beat guys have a piece on it for those who subscribe -

Sabres trade Michael Kesselring to Sharks, move up 7 spots in 2026 NHL Draft

The teams swapped 2026 first-round picks in the deal, with Buffalo receiving the No. 20 choice and San Jose getting the No. 27 selection.

www.nytimes.com

 

[sampler]

because we really should be swinging for the fences when it comes to who we pick to be the 1D (Hronek specifically). I don't think Spence has ever been used in a top pairing role where he has to play 28 to 30 minutes a night nor has he put up enough offensive numbers to justify throwing up on the top pair just yet. He's best used as the middle pairing RD which is where Kesselring is expected to be.

Now if we ended up with Werenski somehow (highly unlikely), then hell yeah bring over Spence too.

Id love to swing for the fences too and Hronek would be such a prize. But, realistically, grier has said he's gunna be patient, which implies more low risk, high reward type moves for mid 20's players. This Kesselring move is exactly that.

Acquiring Spence for anything less than a 1st (like 27+62 for Spence and 32) would be a similar move. Spence did play top pair (or at least top 3) minutes in the final months of the season for Ottawa.

Here are his month by month avg TOI:

Oct: 17:48
Nov: 18:15
Dec: 18:46
Jan: 15:26 (dog house?)
Feb: 16:18
mar: 21:22
Apr: 23:01.
POs 25:01 (though that includes 39:01 in the double OT game).

In other words, he started off playing #4/5 mins but ended the year in the last two months playing 2/3 type minutes. In SJ, where we do not have a Sanderson or Chabot (or Zub), Spence could get the consistent 22 mins/night of a clear top 4. His PROD was 44:05 (so if he got 22 min/gm, we could expect around 40-45 pts). and he got almost no PP time, so with some top PP time, he could be upwards of 50-60 pts.

Imagine grier gets spence, signs him for 4 x 4.5M, and then he goes off for 12 goals, 43 assists for 55 pts, +20 in 22+ mins TOI. Our little Adam Fox clone.

Totally and completely realistic possibility. Crossing my fingers for this complete Grier-esque move.

 

[timorous me]

Kesselring, Spence, Dickinson and Mukhamadullin are all third pairing defensemen at this point. Who's playing top 4 minutes?

I think we're realistically at the point where guys are going to be playing one pairing above where they should be at this stage of their careers, though it's getting better in the sense that these guys all could realistically bump up to belonging as 2nd pairing guys within the next year or so (Kesselring could easily do that if he regains health and his Utah form; the other two likely will need more time).

And I think that's okay. Of course I'd like some genuine first pairing d-men immediately, but you can't really rush that. Just keep making a reasonable amount of forward progress while the kids keep growing—and if an opportunity arises, pounce!

 

[sampler]

Kesselring, Spence, Dickinson and Mukhamadullin are all third pairing defensemen at this point. Who's playing top 4 minutes?

Not spence. he's establishing himself as a clear top 4 with top pair potential. Kesselring, dick, and mukh are all question marks ranging from bottom pairing (or worse, or injured) to mid pairs, to top pair in time.

I think Spence ends up playing 22 mins, Orlov 21 mins, Kessel 19 mins, Dick, 18 mins, Mukh, 18 mins. Basically, the sharks would kinda role their D lines and see who emerges, rewarding the best play.

 

[The Nemesis]

ironically i'd be like what's wrong with him why is he dropping to 20 since there must be something wrong with him clearly and skip him lol /s

Most projections I've seen have him slotted somewhere between 14-15 and maybe the early 20s. Him making it to or just past 20 is probably unlikely but I wouldn't view it as impossible or significantly concerning. A lot of the reckoning around Lin comes down to how badly teams are scared off by him being like 5'10, because otherwise he seems a pretty safe bet in terms of tools (smart, good skater, capable passer, leader/take-charge type, etc)

The only thing now that frustrates me is I won't get to see him next year because this stupid NCAA rules realignment means he's left to play at DU.

 

[Hodge]

I think we're realistically at the point where guys are going to be playing one pairing above where they should be at this stage of their careers, though it's getting better in the sense that these guys all could realistically bump up to belonging as 2nd pairing guys within the next year or so (Kesselring could easily do that if he regains health and his Utah form; the other two likely will need more time).

And I think that's okay. Of course I'd like some genuine first pairing d-men immediately, but you can't really rush that. Just keep making a reasonable amount of forward progress while the kids keep growing—and if an opportunity arises, pounce!

I like the bet on Kesselring (I'll like it more if we're able to lock him up for 4-5 years at a reasonable cap hit) but I wouldn't add Spence on top of him.

If none of those four guys I listed can hack it in top four minutes we would risk taking a step back in the standings and further hurting Askarov and potentially Dickinson's development.

Kesselring is a good low risk bet but the other defensemen we acquire this offseason need to be established vets like Rielly, Nurse, Raddysh, Peeke, etc. who have proven they can play top four or preferably top pair minutes.

 

[Palaeontologists]

Somehow some people can still complain about getting a NHL-level top 4 potential RHD for moving down 7 spots in a deep draft.

 

[themelkman]

It's one of those low-key really terrible trades that make me really hate Grier.

You're trading someone that's really promising like Hermansson, Morozov, Pugachyov, Suvanto, or Novotny for what's likely a nothing prospect, like the best case scenario is someone like Murtyn who is a tier and a half below for a bottom pairing defenseman coming off major injury.

We don't know if that's true at all. One of those guys could easily drop another 7 picks

 

[Star Platinum]

You can't keep planning for 5-10 years down the road; getting a guy who could be an in-his-prime 2nd pairing RD at the expense of dropping from 20 to 27 is exactly the kind of move this team needs to be making right now.

Guys picked in the 20s in this year's draft are going to be 5+ years down the road and if they make it, odds are high they won't be as good as Kesselring is now. There's soooooo little actual downside to this move if you're looking at it logically from the context of where the Sharks are right now in their rebuild.

Agree with the logic, just not sure this is the guy I wanted to be doing that deal with. If he ends up being the guy he was in his last year in Utah pre injuries, then I don't mind giving up the opportunity to draft the next Musty level prospect. But the amount of injuries he had last year and where he had them gives me a lot of pause.

 

[Hodge]

Not spence. he's establishing himself as a clear top 4 with top pair potential. Kesselring, dick, and mukh are all question marks ranging from bottom pairing (or worse, or injured) to mid pairs, to top pair in time.

I think Spence ends up playing 22 mins, Orlov 21 mins, Kessel 19 mins, Dick, 18 mins, Mukh, 18 mins. Basically, the sharks would kinda role their D lines and see who emerges, rewarding the best play.

Spence is a career 17ish minute guy and you want to bump him up to 22 minutes a night? That's a recipe for stagnating or getting worse next season.

 

[Surfer Dude]

Most projections I've seen have him slotted somewhere between 14-15 and maybe the early 20s. Him making it to or just past 20 is probably unlikely but I wouldn't view it as impossible or significantly concerning. A lot of the reckoning around Lin comes down to how badly teams are scared off by him being like 5'10, because otherwise he seems a pretty safe bet in terms of tools (smart, good skater, capable passer, leader/take-charge type, etc)

The only thing now that frustrates me is I won't get to see him next year because this stupid NCAA rules realignment means he's left to play at DU.

yea i was just joking. i am still happy with MG's move. DU is a great place for Lin and his style.

as an aside to other poster about Desh, it depends on cost but I'd rather have Logan Stanley easily if Desh leave or bring both. Logan is way more physical and fights more than Desh. Let Poky develop and call up in case of injury.

 

[sampler]

BTW, I really dont care much about that 20 (or 27) pick. The cupbard is so stacked for the sharks that we just dont need another army of mid level prospects. Utilizing that pick to add NHL guys now is a far better use. I dont need Klepov or Novotny. I dont need Mutryn. I would much rather have Spence and Kesselring for the next 3-4 years than another so so prospect, especailly at forward sicne he D expected to be there around 20 or 27 are not particularly good.

We have Musty, haltunnen, Bystedt, and Lund in the AHL at forward. Wetch, Mckinney, and Mutryn coming soon. Not to mention Celly, Misa, Cherny, Smith, Graf, and Eklund as U24s in the NHL already. We dont need another Musty-like prospect. A likely future top line W like Stenberg? Sure. But not another Bystedt or Haltunnen.

We could use more D prospects but anyone you pick in the late 1st round is VERY unlikely to be a stud. We dont need more LSW types. Reid level prospect is different, but we dont need depth D prospects.

We need NHL D with significant upside. Much to my disaapointment, I think Grier is not yet ready to cash in for established top pair guys in their primes. So, we can keep opting for guys with big upside who are underutilized. It's not a bad strategy at this stage of the rebuild to take a lotto ticket on a few high cieling guys and hope. I see Spence and kesselring similarly.