It feels like there's too much recency bias on this list--maybe because Pronman does so much work on the draft, he ends up favoring the guys he's covered most recently? And maybe just not as plugged in on guys after they're drafted?
I think he places more emphasis on ceiling potential than closeness to contribution. Freshly drafted guys have their whole development ahead of them to become possibly the best versions of themselves, whereas someone who's been in the system for a couple of years has grown at their actual pace instead of their projected one and may have had some of the higher branches on their tree of possible outcomes lopped off already.
I simply cannot figure out the logic behind Musty being so low--how in the world is he four spots behind Chernyshov?
In the writeup he focuses on the fact that Musty is a one-dimensional player who is not a defensive contributor at all and the fact that he has more inconsistency in his game and is not necessarily a great skater. Chernyshov, on the other hand, is highlighted as an excellent all-around player who competes hard and can control play physically.
This is his complete brief on Chernyshov:
Skating: NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: NHL average
Compete: Above NHL average
Shot: Above NHL average
Analysis: Chernyshov was very good at the junior level in Russia and earned ice time up in the KHL with a regular shift for a top team in Dynamo Moscow. He’s a big, powerful winger who skates well and has a lot of offensive creativity. He beats defenders routinely with his one-on-one plays, sees the ice well and can create at the net. He’s not going to run players over with his physical play, but he uses his body to create offense. He has the ability to control play at even strength due to his variety of tools and looks the part of a potential strong top-six winger in the NHL.
And this is Musty:
Skating: Below NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: Above NHL average
Compete: NHL average
Analysis: Musty was one of the best forwards in the OHL this season. He is a highly skilled puckhandler who can make difficult plays with the puck at a high rate. He tries to make things happen and shows a strong level of creativity. Musty is a great passer who can hit open lanes and has the patience to pull up and make plays. He can score goals and is a shot threat from range but is certainly a player with a pass-first mentality. His effort is fine and he can use his big body to win battles but his game-to-game consistency isn’t the best. He’s a one-way winger which, combined with his so-so skating ability, is a concern for higher levels. He projects as a middle-six wing who will help a power play but may frustrate coaches at times, too.
As for the defenders...
--and even though I'm a fan of Wallenius, to put him at 7 and Mukhamadullin, a guy who's several years ahead of him in terms of development (and seems to be perfectly on-track in his development toward being an NHL regular, maybe as soon as this season), feels a bit mad.
They're right next to each other. And it seems to come down to the fact that aside from size, Sahlin Wallenius is a more complete package. He's a better skater, a solid defender, and shows decent offensive chops even if that won't be his calling at the NHL level. Meanwhile Mukhamadullin is a good skater for his size, but not as good overall, is not quite as sound in his own zone, and also has a bit of a cap on his offensive output even though that is the stronger facet of his game. Both look like good two-way defenders at the NHL level, but he's just giving a small edge to Sahlin Wallenius because it's not about Mukhamadullin being ready for the NHL as soon as early this year, it's that by the end of their respective dev cycles Sahlin Wallenius looks like he could end up better overall.
I also will attest to probably being something of a homer when it comes to Eklund, but I really liked the steps he took last year in terms of his overall game, but I suppose you won't have gotten that if you didn't watch him regularly, and who--except some of us demented freaks--would have done that last season? But no matter: I think he's being slept on and is going to be a valuable member of our top six for a long time.
This is pretty much Pronman's take too. He's not "down" on Eklund. 5th behind 1) an all-NHL, franchise-cornerstone center, 2) an elite offense driver center, 3) an excellent top-4 defenseman who can play in all situations and 4) a high caliber starting goaltender is a fairly solid result. His review of Eklund is that he's an excellent all-around offensive winger who skates very well and can make plays in a variety of ways, he's just not "the most dynamic small winger I've ever seen" and may not have the elite star potential that was projected for him at some points around his draft year. But he will still probably be a strong long-term scoring winger in the league.
I also would argue that I don't know if anyone is sleeping on him. He's projected by basically everyone to be a long-term member of this team's top 6. Before we even entertain the idea of trades and other ways to fill in slots on the team, the top 6 could have as many as 5 spots filled by the likes of:
Chernyshov - Celebrini - Eklund
Musty - Smith - Halttunen
It probably doesn't go that way entirely because trades will be made, and guys may not make it, but even if we say that only one of Chernyshov, Musty, and Halttunen are likely to hit their top tier projections, that still puts Celebrini, Smith, and Eklund in place as your more-than-likely anchors of the future top 6.
Also just in general I think that there will be something coming in the next little bit that might help give some perspective on the whole issue of how the list is ranked. Basically I don't think that any of these possible ranking issues are all that big of a deal in the long run.
