Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Megathread XXI: "New, improved, and wayyyy too much info" Edition

[sampler]

Scoring-by-committee, as a strategy, has never worked. It's like bringing knives to a gun fight.

How much of that is a function of not having many first-round picks?

I think a lot of the focus on drafting forwards was DW misanalyzing the team, thinking he had the defense locked down while searching for cheap bottom-6 depth and/or the next Thornton/Marleau.


I still think the team never adjusted to Strelow's death or Thomas's retirement


Consider it this way; from 2005-2021, the Panthers have drafted 12 forwards and 5 defensemen in the first round; the Sharks have drafted 9 forwards and 4 defensemen. Not a big difference

Since 2005-21, the sharks have picked in the top 15 4 times. All four were forwards. In fact dick is the first top 15 D pick since Jeff Jillson ('14 in 1999).

And the sharks have not picked a D in the top 10 since Brad Stuart in 1998. Much of that is the amazing on ice product that made the POs year after year, but not wholly. From 1999 to today, the sharks have picked in the top 10 seven times. ALL seven were forwards.

BTW, Im not sure thats a bad strategy (same with not taking goalies so early). Goalies and D seem more variable in their outcomes than forwards, and there are a lot more forward spots on a roster so even a semi-bust forward can still find an NHL home on a team, while a D semi bust usually never really sees a sniff. After all, a roster has double the O than D. I also wonder if the spread of success between 1st round D and later round D is alot wider than 1st round O ad later round O.

If have to do a deep dive on the analytics of D vs O vs G in the top 10.

Just looking at the top 10 scoring forwards. You had 3 of the top 6 in the league were former 1st overall. one was 3rd overall, one 8th, one 10th. one 11th overall. Kucherov was a 2nd rounder and Panarin was a star KHL import. In other words, 8 of the top 10 scorers in the NHL were top 11 first round picks with 3 1st overalls.

On D, I suppose its similar. Hughes and makar lead and they were 7th and 4th overall. Then Josi, a second rounder. Then bouchard #10, Hedman #2 overall. Fox 3rd round, then dobson #12. The #13 overall, #23 overall, and lastly a #1 overall. In other words, 8 out of 10 are 1st rounders, though only one was a top 3 pick.

Nevertheless, I suppose talent is talent and maybe BPA is accurate.

.......

You know, maybe its alot of dumb luck

 

[Munnyro]

He was a top liner on the WJSS, paired with the current consensus #1 overall for next year after destroying the O. He also looked terrific in development camp last year and this year.

From what I heard, he was put into a middle six spot to see what he could do versus the folks that weren't there from last year aka had a spot. I think most folks figured he'd be in but it wasn't a lock.

 

[matt trick]

Looked at the elite prospects top 100. Was curious about RHD availability as we don't have much there.

• There are (by my count) 17 RHD prospects. Only Montreal (Reinbacher, Mailloux) have two. 8 of them were drafted last year.
• 15 LHD prospects. Only San Jose (Dickinson, Muk) and the Avs (Gulayev, Behrens) have two
• Amongst combined D prospects, Montreal is the only one to have 3 top 100 prospects. 12 teams don't have any. Nine teams have two, and 10 teams have one.
• Potential RHD to target from playoff teams would be Beau Akey (Edm), Ben Danford (Toronto), Emery (NYR), and maybe Willander (Vancouver). For each team it's their lone defensive prospect in the top 100.
• Teams without a top 100 D prospect: Vegas, Boston, Buffalo, NYI, Washington, Winnipeg, Nashville, Tampa, Florida and LA (however Clarke is ineligible).

Was heartened to see Dickinson+Muk as upper half, however, important to keep in mind several teams also have a young superstar d-man (or several quality young guys) in the NHL. We have Thrun and Emberson, both of whom may not ever lock down full time top 6 slots. Grier's down a tremendous job with those two (not to mention all the assets spent on forwards). Need a few more pieces there though.

Beau Akey might be a nice return pickup in exchange for solving Edmonton's cap problem. Beyond that, it seems like ensuring we get a quality RHD after our 1st will be a major priority in the 2025 draft, as I don't know where else we're going to find one. Heard Dickinson was fairly fluid in playing both right and left for team Canada. That'd be big.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

I think that a rebuilding team needs to focus on the four most important and difficult to obtain players. Two top six centers and two defensemen to anchor each of your top two pairings. One of the defenseman and ideally one of the centers should be adept at playing shut down defense. It looks like we have obtained three of these players in the last two drafts.

 

[Xirik]

EP put out their top-100 NHL-affiliated prospects and here's where the Sharks land:

1. Macklin Celebrini
10. Will Smith
15. Quentin Musty
21. Sam Dickinson
45. Igor Chernyshov
96. Shakir Mukhamadullin
HM. Cagnoni, Edstrom
No mention of Bystedt, Halttunen

My take is that Smith is a little low (I would take him over Levshunov, Parekh, and Iginla who they have over him; Leonard, Gauthier, and Lindstrom are close enough that I wouldn't fight it), Musty is a little high, and Mukhamadullin is way too low. They grade Mukh as having below average skating and hockey IQ, which I just don't agree with, but they do think he can be a #4D. They've always been low on Smith, so that ranking doesn't surprise me. I was interested to see that they have Gabe Perreault all the way down at 30.

Still, five guys in the top-45 seems pretty good.

Elite prospects listed Muk as a "Do not draft" before the 2020 Draft. Clearly he's made a fool out of them and and I remember hearing that they block people on twitter who bring that up. I'm surprised they put him on the list at all. Guess they have some integrity.

Psst. Any Devils prospects on the honorable mentions list?

 

[Juxtaposer]

Elite prospects listed Muk as a "Do not draft" before the 2020 Draft. Clearly he's made a fool out of them and and I remember hearing that they block people on twitter who bring that up. I'm surprised they put him on the list at all. Guess they have some integrity.

Psst. Any Devils prospects on the honorable mentions list?

Seamus Casey!

 

[The Nemesis]

Looks like I'm going to have to adjust things for the departure of Emberson. It might take until later in the week, as I have lots of stuff on my plate for the next few days

 

[LadyStanley]

And as it's past 8/15 (and didn't get signed by Sharks), Young became UFA.

 

[Patty Ice]

Brock's top 20 drafted OHL prospects

1. BDE
8. Musty
15. Halttunen

 

[Cas]

 

[The Nemesis]

Alright, I'm going to try and fix the prospect thread over the weekend. My current to-do list stands at the following:

1) Remove Ty Emberson in the wake of the Ceci trade.
2) Remove Alex Young after he was not offered a contract
3) Alter Leo Sahlin Wallenius' info to reflect his loan to Nybro
4) Remove David Edstrom and Magnus Chrona as a result of the Nashville trade
5) Add Yaroslav Askarov and Nolan Burke from the Nashville trade
6) Adjust the graphs and stats to reflect the above.
7) Add Brandon Coe's contract
8) Add a "Version history" header to the first post to try and keep track of what has and hasn't been changed over time.

Is there anything anyone has noticed that I am missing or anything else that needs to be corrected?

If I have extra time I may add sections or notations for each prospect who placed in our top prospect polls and a link to their threads (the prospect poll thread and/or draft/acquisition threads) but that's a low-priority thing at the moment because I am juggling several plates right now in terms of things I need to get done.

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827121323862274334

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827134559588380769

Cool

 

[The Nemesis]

I'm in the process of updating the front-end of the thread. I have a version history and have changed all the prospect listings to account for arrivals and departures. I still have to fix the graphs though. But until then there is now info for Askarov and Burke.

 

[The Nemesis]

Pool overview graphs are now updated and the discussion has been modified to reflect some of the changes (such as the nationality silver medal now being claimed by Russia after adding Askarov and subtracting Emberson, thus also dropping the US into the bronze spot)

Positional graphs (centers, RD, and G) for their respective posts are being worked on slowly. For stupid reasons I don't understand Excel is clearing the graphic pie filling for nationalities and developmental tracks (the flags and league logos) on those pie charts every time I quit the workbook and/or switch which position is shown. So now I have to re-apply the graphics to each version of each pie graph in order to make them presentable.

Plus it is like 8 graphs per position that need to be shown, screenshotted, formatted, and uploaded. I'm thinking I might leave fixing that until tomorrow because it's 7:30 and I've been working on these updates for like 2 hours.

 

[spintops]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5630734/2024/08/29/san-jose-sharks-nhl-prospect-pipeline-rankings-2024?source=user-shared-article

1. Macklin
2. Smith
3. Dickerson
4. Askarov
5. Eklund
6. Igor
7. Sahlin
8. Muka
9. Bystedt
10. Musty

 

[Barrie22]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5630734/2024/08/29/san-jose-sharks-nhl-prospect-pipeline-rankings-2024?source=user-shared-article

1. Macklin
2. Smith
3. Dickerson
4. Askarov
5. Eklund
6. Igor
7. Sahlin
8. Muka
9. Bystedt
10. Musty

Good top 10, but i personally would change it a bit.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5630734/2024/08/29/san-jose-sharks-nhl-prospect-pipeline-rankings-2024?source=user-shared-article

1. Macklin
2. Smith
3. Dickerson
4. Askarov
5. Eklund
6. Igor
7. Sahlin
8. Muka
9. Bystedt
10. Musty

Context: This is a U23 ranking, composed of players drafted between 2020 and 2024. They are low on Musty and Muhkamadulin (although to be fair Muhkamadulin is 1 year away from aging out of this ranking and still hasn't been an NHL guy)

 

[Juxtaposer]

Good top 10, but i personally would change it a bit.

Other than Musty being too low and Sahlin-Wallenius being way too high, it's not a terrible ranking I think.

 

[Alessandro Seren Rosso]

Just published a translated interview with Sharks prospect Yegor Rimashevsky
He talks summer work, playing in the first line at such a young age, his prospects for the 24-25 campaign in the KHL.

Have a good read!

Sharks Prospect Yegor Rimashevsky Primed for 2024-25 Breakout - The Hockey Writers San Jose Sharks Latest News, Analysis & More

In this translated interview, Sharks prospect Yegor Rimashevsky talks summer work, his KHL debut season, and his plans for the 2024-2025.

thehockeywriters.com

 

[coooldude]

Just published a translated interview with Sharks prospect Yegor Rimashevsky
He talks summer work, playing in the first line at such a young age, his prospects for the 24-25 campaign in the KHL.

Have a good read!

Sharks Prospect Yegor Rimashevsky Primed for 2024-25 Breakout - The Hockey Writers San Jose Sharks Latest News, Analysis & More

In this translated interview, Sharks prospect Yegor Rimashevsky talks summer work, his KHL debut season, and his plans for the 2024-2025.

thehockeywriters.com

Good read, seems like he is a mature 19 year old. Just extended through 2025-26 I believe. Wonder how much he wants to come to the US. Seems, at least from the interview, pretty content in the Russian / Belorussian world of hockey.

 

[The Nemesis]

Can't do the link because I'm reading it in the app and my tablet is kinda fumbly, but The Athletic has completed their prospect (including u24 nhlers) rankings. Sharks were 2nd behind Chicago. I'll update with the actual rankings within the system in a couple hours when I get on a computer.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Can't do the link because I'm reading it in the app and my tablet is kinda fumbly, but The Athletic has completed their prospect (including u24 nhlers) rankings. Sharks were 2nd behind Chicago. I'll update with the actual rankings within the system in a couple hours when I get on a computer.

Seems fair enough.

 

[LadyStanley]

Can't do the link because I'm reading it in the app and my tablet is kinda fumbly, but The Athletic has completed their prospect (including u24 nhlers) rankings. Sharks were 2nd behind Chicago. I'll update with the actual rankings within the system in a couple hours when I get on a computer.

Podcast (free to listen) on top prospect teams linked on season preview thread.

 

[The Nemesis]

Separated by Pronman's tiers:

Elite NHL Player
1) Celebrini

Bubble NHL All-Star & Top of the Lineup Player
2) Smith

Top of the Lineup Player
3) Dickinson

Bubble Top and Middle of the Lineup Player
4) Askarov
5) Eklund
6) Chernyshov

Middle of the Lineup Player
7) Sahlin Wallenius
8) Mukhamadullin
9) Bystedt
10) Musty
11) Halttunen

Projected to Play Games (This sounds like a tier for guys who won't make it, but in reading the reports it's more like "has extremely limited upside beyond a low-level or niche role (Wetsch, Misskey)" or "has a significant flaw that might prevent them from cementing a regular lineup spot (Graf, Bordeleau, and Rimashevsky are low-physicality or heavy perimeter players, Cagnoni is tiny and that may impact his ability to defend larger bodies)")
12) Graf
13) Wetsch
14) Bordeleau
15) Cagnoni
16) Misskey
17) Rimashevsky

Has a Chance to Play (unranked and listed alphabetically)
-Furlong
-Gushchin
-Havelid
-Kashnikov
-Lund
-Pohlkamp
-Roberts
-Svoboda

and I was wrong, it's not U24, it's U23 as of September 15th

The big talking point is probably Musty down at 10. His rationale is that he considers Musty a one-way, offence-only player which is an issue when combined with a wavering level compete level and iffy skating.

Most of the other stuff is fair within ranges that people have said are extremely fluid. Some may say Sahlin Wallenius is a bit high, but I think our polls undersold him a bit. He's not likely to become a sexy D prospect with outstanding play on one side of the puck or the other, but he looks like he could/should be a solid contributor on both sides and a great skater to make that work, which is quite valuable.

Kashnikov on there is surprising, but he does seem like he has a solid skillset. His major flaw is that he bailed on North America and seems content in the KHL.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5630734/2024/08/29/san-jose-sharks-nhl-prospect-pipeline-rankings-2024/

I should also note that slotting below Chicago seems to mostly be a function of Pronman believing that Bedard > Celebrini and Levshunov > Smith and weighting things heavily on that top-end talent.