Confirmed with Link: Sharks acquire Yaroslav Askarov (w/extension, 2yr @ $2m per), F Nolan Burke 2025 3rd for Edstrom, VGK 1st, and G Chrona

[Mattb124]

I assume this is not aimed at me, who is just a bit skeptical, or am I lumped into this mis-characterization?

And I'm not selling the risk long. You can have this opinion/ risk assessment and I can have mine without ONE OF US BEING WRONG.

I was agreeing with your assessment of risk.

 

[TheBeard]

One could argue he has Celebrini upside at the goaltender position, but Celebrini is as safe as an elite prospect can get and Askarov is not. That's the difference to me. I'd say Askarov is a Will Smith level prospect but that G is a far less important position than C so I value him less than Smith.

I agree with this. I think this is standard for most of the elite goaltending prospects. They get drafted because of their unlimited potential, but their ceilings are completely bottomless. It's not like you can find a different role. There are tons of guys on bottom lines or pairings that were drafted high for entirely different reasons. Not for goalies though. You're either good enough or you're not. The problem, and why goalies rarely get drafted, is because of the time it takes to find out and the new day of immediate gratification and instant success means GMs don't have the time or the patience to wait.

Right, I don’t think that argument holds weight because, exactly, goalies are valued completely differently now. Teams are happy to stuff an Adin Hill back there and very few would take a risk on a goalie in the top 1-3. I’m honestly not sure Price would’ve gone 1-3 at this point.

Which is why this point is correct. GMs basically have a 3-4 year window to make things happen before they're on the hot seat. You have to be really secure in your job to risk going for a position that high knowing you may never see the fruits of that in your tenure. There are goalies out there that for sure can win, but for every Adin Hill (who wasn't even anything more than a worst case scenario for Vegas and basically thrived because of a deep team and a particularly elite defense) there's 30-40 goalies who just can't hack it. It ain't easy. I thought I was the best when I was 13 until I ran into Alexandre Daigle every day in practice.

 

[sampler]

There is an image that goalies are largely interchangable. I dont think that's true. I know that their numbers/performance is often a function of the team in front of them in terms of GAA and save % (if your team gives up 10 breakaways per game, your numbers will stink), but I dont think they are so irrelevant.

A great goalie instills confidence in a team. You hear it all the time how players can play looser and more confidently when they know their goalie can back 'em up. I think having a young goalie prospect with that ability is tremendously valuable.

Also, I am always reticent to annoint any player with 1C labels. Celly looks that way, but anything can happen, and just as a goalie is a function in part of the team in front of him, any center is a function of both opportunity and linemates/D with him. Top line C's get to play with better players and get more ice time and get more PP time and favorable matchups (at leaset at home) and more O zone starts. All of these boost point totals, sometimes significantly. This is partly why sometimes players come out of nowhere to become stars. Previous teams did not give them the optimal scenario for that.

Its also true that since there is only one goalie in the net, yet 12 forwards, a supposed 1C that plays only so so will be a 20-20 player, which still qualifies as a solid NHLer. A goalie that plays so so is far more obvious with far less space to fall and still be a solid contributor. As such, its much easier and much less risky to get a forward thatn a goalie, but a big upside goalie is so so important, just harder to predict at 18. (not as hard at 22).

 

[coooldude]

The discussion is centering around whether Askarov is a "Celebrini" or "Smith/Musty" level prospect. Relative to his peers and his risk profile I agree with others who put him more in the Smith camp - sky high upside, bottomless downside. But also as others have noted, top of the lineup C prospects, or 1RD/1LD, are probably more important to a rebuild/team than a G prospect with top end upside, or maybe even a top end G who is already established -- see recent trade values.

We should ask the question: would we have been ecstatic with this trade if it were a Smith-Askarov trade straight up (obviously not) -- what about Musty or Dickinson (I think some would still be excited but definitely more tempered and others would be more upset).

He's a top 3 goalie prospect in the world, the narrative is he's top 1-2 (Wallstedt, Cossa, etc), with upside for top 5 G in the whole league, but as the game has evolved that level of G prospect is less impactful than others. That said, we now have an enviable goalie pipeline on a good timeline, where 2 days ago we had a dogshit goalie pipeline. And we still have a strong C pipeline, even league-best at the prospect level. The rationale for the move makes sense, I just balk at all the comments anointing Askarov as "Celebrini level" or only a failed trade if the other pick ends up being a hall of famer. This could be a failed trade with no impact, a failed trade that really hurts, a positive trade with slightly positive impact, or a game changer trade that wins us a cup. This is the definition of "risk" and it is not asymmetric risk to the upside, there's risk both directions.

Ad nauseum -- ballsy move by Grier.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Almost everyone.

Using where the Vegas pick ultimately ends up when that information is not known at the time of the trade is an incorrect way to judge a decision made at a given time. The Vegas pick has a PV based on their median expected outcome (which can vary between different people). Judgement on the value of the trade should only be done using the present value that was known at the time of the trade. Where the Vegas pick ends up is irrelevant to the present value of the pick at the time of the trade because actual outcome is unknown and therefore has a wide range of potential outcomes.

It’s like buying a stock and saying “it would be a good buy if the stock goes up in a year and a bad buy if the stock goes down in a year”. Of course in hindsight if the stock goes up it was a good decision but the decision should be judged based on the available information at the time of the purchase.

People do not understand how small of a sample size a single season in sports is. That is how most people make incorrect statistical assumptions in sports.

If you really want to condescend people like this regarding statistics, you should know that the median outcome is not sufficient to judge the trade.

To illustrate this, consider the case when the absolute top outcome for the pick is that the player becomes Claude Giroux, and there is a 10% chance of this happening.

Now consider the case when this top outcome is that the player becomes Wayne Gretzky, and there is still a 10% chance of this happening.

The value of the pick is significantly higher in the second case. Yet the median outcome is exactly the same in both. You could also bump the top outcome probability up to 49% and leaving the rest constant, and it would still not change the median.

Clearly, the median does not capture everything. In fact, no single number summary does; you need the full distribution of outcomes for the pick, along with the utility to the Sharks of each outcome. Here, the utility of a top-5 pick is very high, and there are strong arguments that the pick being top-5 is a reasonable possibility.

Also, the problem with using strictly the information available at the time is that everybody has a different perspective on this information. You might believe Vegas has a 1% chance of finishing bottom-5, and Jimbob over there might believe Vegas has a 50% chance of finishing bottom-5. This is a good trade if you're correct, and a bad trade if Jimbob is correct. While we will never know what the true probability was, we can use the outcome as evidence to suggest whose perspective was more accurate. (E.g, if Vegas finishes with 117 points, it will support that your beliefs were probably more accurate, while they finish with 67 points, it will support that Jimbob's probably were.)

 

[TheBeard]

So let's summarize some of what I've seen on the boards:

There's a 2% chance Vegas finishes in the bottom 5
There's a 10% chance the pick is Wayne Gretzky
There's a 50% chance Askarov turns into Roman Cechmanek

Feel free to add

 

[Alaskanice]

I just hope he leads us to greater days.

 

[coooldude]

So let's summarize some of what I've seen on the boards:

There's a 2% chance Vegas finishes in the bottom 5
There's a 10% chance the pick is Wayne Gretzky
There's a 50% chance Askarov turns into Roman Cechmanek

Feel free to add

100% snarky with a chance of meatballs from TheBeard

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1828512002454757579

 

[TheBeard]

100% snarky with a chance of meatballs from TheBeard

Old news

 

[Mattb124]

As STL Shark noted, according to betting books the Vegas pick was valued at about #23 at the time of the trade. IMO that’s how the pick should be valued.

I completely agree with this assessment. There are far too many things that were unknowable at the time of the trade which influence the ultimate position of that pick for it to make sense to use the actual draft position as the basis for evaluation.

 

[Jargon]

I think that’s a fair answer — he’s got Celebrini-level potential but Smith-level floor.

To answer your question @coooldude — I definitely wouldn’t be okay trading Smith for him and I’d be less excited about losing Musty AND the 1st, for sure, though I’d probably swallow that pill. It’s why having it be Edstrom feels like a pretty great trade.

But yes, ultimately, it’s a fair point - he's a Smith-level prospect, then. Which I think still makes it a great trade.

 

[The Nemesis]

So let's summarize some of what I've seen on the boards:

There's a 2% chance Vegas finishes in the bottom 5
There's a 10% chance the pick is Wayne Gretzky
There's a 50% chance Askarov turns into Roman Cechmanek

Feel free to add

But if you add Musty's 33 1/3% chance of being elite to Smith's 66 2/3% chance then Askarov's chance of being the best non-Celebrini prospect in the pool drastic go down.

 

[TheBeard]

But if you add Musty's 33 1/3% chance of being elite to Smith's 66 2/3% chance then Askarov's chance of being the best non-Celebrini prospect in the pool drastic go down.

See? The numbers don't lie, and that spells disaster for Blackwood.

 

[Nth Turtle Reborn]

As always, fascinating read on the various opposing views, i've nothing to contribute beyond being happy to be rid of both the ex-Vegas prospect & pick, Askarov adds another link's worth of distance from the pain of Hertl's, previously unimaginable, treachery.

Regardless of moving on from Hertl being the correct health of the franchise move, those returns were forever tainted from whence they came, to insert another degree of separation from that dark day gives me comfort on days I remember Fun mustn't be always.

Hope Askarov works out, I've been lukewarm on most of our choices in net during the Lombardi/Wilson era, I like Grier's approach here, especially given Ask has had years in a good tendy factory like NSH

 

[Star Platinum]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1828512002454757579

 

[Hodge]

Trotz and Korn's public statements since the trade have been f***ing embarrassing.

Maybe they're just pandering to their fanbase/media but hopefully it fires up Askarov.

 

[sharski]

the continued goaltending development by Nabby & Speer is the key to all of this...

if they can just get Askarov working...

 

[Star Platinum]

Trotz and Korn's public statements since the trade have been f***ing embarrassing.

Maybe they're just pandering to their fanbase/media but hopefully it fires up Askarov.

Trotz, for all his success, seems like a colossal asshole to me

 

[weastern bias]

Trotz and Korn's public statements since the trade have been f***ing embarrassing.

Maybe they're just pandering to their fanbase/media but hopefully it fires up Askarov.

It's been shockingly unprofessional, it doesn't do much to make yourself look appealing to players in other organizations, but I don’t think Trotz plans to be there very long term anyway, he's 62 years old, it's all about right now for them

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1828235989451415884

NHL Network take

 

[Juxtaposer]

Trotz and Korn's public statements since the trade have been f***ing embarrassing.

Maybe they're just pandering to their fanbase/media but hopefully it fires up Askarov.

Seriously. The character assassination attempts are just pathetic, but I know Preds fans will eat it up.

 

[The Nemesis]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1828512002454757579

What a weird thing to go off about.

"oh you want to leave, do you? Well too bad we had this great plan that was going to work to make you great. But I guess we'll just use it on someone else. It doesn't matter who because we're great at this and any rando can become the next big goalie. But it won't be you because you left and we're not bitter about it at all. Nope. It's fine."

I know Trotz plugs in a quick "he'll do great there" at the end, but burying a kid because he looked at the freshly signed 8-year Saros contract and thought "ain't no way I'll ever get over that wall" is hardly something you can blame him for. But flexing that he's missing out because you had this foolproof path to stardom for him that he was too short-sighted to see is a hell of a choice.

This is big time "texting your ex to tell them they won't be able to do better than being with you, only you're the one sitting outside their place with a bag of triple cheeseburgers because you've got nothing else to do on a Friday night." energy

 

[Alaskanice]

Regardless of what Trotz and Corn say, MGGM did great in taking advantage of the situation.

 

[Saskatoon]

the continued goaltending development by Nabby & Speer is the key to all of this...

if they can just get Askarov working...

Yea not sold on Nabby as a coach but cautiously optimistic about Speer