Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 13: Jett Luchanko, C, Guelph (OHL) - 7/6 Upd: Signed 3yr ELC

[deadhead]

This is one instance where two things can be true at the same time: Luchanko is a very good prospect and was the wrong choice at 13OA.

I'd wait three years to make a definitive conclusion.
Patrick wasn't considered the wrong choice at #2 at the time.

If Luchanko develops his offense and becomes a two way 1C, it's the right choice no matter how Buium turns out b/c top centers are harder to find than offensive LHDs.

 

[FLYguy3911]

1C

 

[BernieParent]

I'd wait three years to make a definitive conclusion.
Patrick wasn't considered the wrong choice at #2 at the time.

If Luchanko develops his offense and becomes a two way 1C, it's the right choice no matter how Buium turns out b/c top centers are harder to find than offensive LHDs.

Thanks for your comment, dead. According to the experts, Luchanko is likely a 3C while Buium has 1D potential. You are right in citing the caveat about Patrick and how the consensus 2OA blew up in our faces. But the Flyers also have a pretty empty track record of developing 3C's into 1C's so Luckanko would need to do so on his own on a horrible OHL team. I don't like the odds.

 

[volnoir]

I'd wait three years to make a definitive conclusion.
Patrick wasn't considered the wrong choice at #2 at the time.

If Luchanko develops his offense and becomes a two way 1C, it's the right choice no matter how Buium turns out b/c top centers are harder to find than offensive LHDs.

Do you know anything about Buium or are you just assuming he is an all offense LHD based on stats? If you look into his numbers you will realize he was one of the best two-way defensemen in the NCAA last year. He defended extremely well, drove play out of his zone at an elite level and of course drove the offense on that team. Stop trying to downplay how good a prospect he was. The only argument people seem to have right now for why he wasn't picked are:

1) The Flyers thought he was undersized
2) Agent issues
3) Conspiracy theories about him being a headcase

Note that none of those 3 "issues" are related to his skill. Now let's quote Scott Wheeler who you love to quote (who loves Buium btw):

Despite his historic production, his game is also so much more than just his offense. By year’s end, he was known for locking opposing players up defensively, which included assignments to stay on top of players like Celebrini and Leonard.

According to Carle, Buium “spent a lot of time with (Denver assistant coach) Dallas Ferguson watching video, he spent a lot of time watching Sean Behrens, he spent a lot of time watching his brother Shai (a Red Wings prospect and teammate at Denver), and he became a student of the game on the defensive end of it.”

As the year progressed, Zeev learned what Carle and his staff always try to impart to their players, which is “the better you defend the less you have to do it.”

“We’re keenly aware that players want to play offense, they want to score goals, they want to make plays. But the players who defend the best get to play offense more. And I think Zeev really connected on that point,” Carle said.

“I told people, ‘Take away the power play for many elite power-play defensemen that we’ve seen over the last 5-7 years and what (are) their games?’ Well Zeev didn’t have power play at the world juniors and he was still impactful, he still helped the team win, he produced at a five-on-five level but he also defended at a five-on-five level,” Carle said.

“So there’s just layers to his game that, again, that’s where I go back to: There’s not a more impactful player in the draft than him.”

 

[deadhead]

Do you know anything about Buium or are you just assuming he is an all offense LHD based on stats? If you look into his numbers you will realize he was one of the best two-way defensemen in the NCAA last year. He defended extremely well, drove play out of his zone at an elite level and of course drove the offense on that team. Stop trying to downplay how good a prospect he was. The only argument people seem to have right now for why he wasn't picked are:

1) The Flyers thought he was undersized
2) Agent issues
3) Conspiracy theories about him being a headcase

Note that none of those 3 "issues" are related to his skill. Now let's quote Scott Wheeler who you love to quote (who loves Buium btw):

He didn't fall b/c he was undersized, he's going to end up somewhere around 6'0 200.
I'm not sure the agent is that much of an issue, I mean Phillies learned to deal with Boras.

However, the fact he fell to #12 should raise eyebrows, if he was head and shoulders above the D-men taken ahead of him, someone would take a chance (like the Flyers with Michkov).

Size may have mattered with Yakemchuk and Dickinson, but they are talented big D-men.
I think if Dickinson had fallen to #12, Flyers might have bit.

Parekh went #9, and he is very similar to Buium in terms of size and offense.

The strange one is Silayev, at 6'7, history suggests he's high risk (few players over 6'5 make it in the NHL), and hasn't been very productive offensively. #10.

But we'll see in a few years.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Very few. You have to have the right circumstances, for example, Carolina under performed for years due to Peters being an incompetent HC, so when Brind'Amour took over, they had a core of young talent. Good moves around that core, but it was also about jacking up an underachieving team.

Same when Zito took over Florida, the 2019-20 team was a 93 point team (pro-rated) with Huberdeau (26), Barkov (24), Ekblad (23), Trocheck (26), Vatrano (25), Matheson (25), Weegar (26), Bob (31). He made good moves, but it's not like he took over a bad team.

Very few teams have drastically changed their fortunes in a five year window? Everyone just stays on the exact same path with the same people doing the same things endlessly?

Are you sure?

 

[mr figgles]

There’s a good chance Luchanko does become 1C… not because he actually is a 1C, but because he is their 2/3C with the most chemistry with Michkov. It’s not like there is much competition. Luchanko, Frost, Barkey…? I’m sure the Flyers will pay him like a 1C though.

 

[deadhead]

There’s a good chance Luchanko does become 1C… not because he actually is a 1C, but because he is their 2/3C with the most chemistry with Michkov. It’s not like there is much competition. Luchanko, Frost, Barkey…? I’m sure the Flyers will pay him like a 1C though.

Flyers have 3 1sts and 3 2nds in the coming draft, plus, if Frost doesn't step up, he could be part of a trade package.
Odds are they trade for a young top 6 center with some of those picks.
If not, they'll probably draft at least 1 center and 1 offensively skilled LHD with those 3 1st rd picks.

So the situation is fluid and will remain so for the next couple years.

The player to watch is Couts, for all his struggles last season (mostly shooting, 5.73% Sh%)
xGF 55.00%, HDCF 57.74%.
He can still be a top 6 center if he improves 2 years after surgery.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

And kept everyone else after praising what he walked into.

Waiving NAK was a mistake, BTW.

Yeah, NAK who has played in four different organizations in the last three seasons, who has been waived multiple times by multiple organizations, and who spent 11 games in the AHL last season at age 27 with 1 goal and 2 assists.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

As stated the whole league faced covid so no excuse...

Flat cap is not an excuse either - you need to have contingency planning and part of that is cap management. Do nto spend like a drunken sailor so no excuse here..

While the SC contract was signed before the bacj issues, he was already a beaten down (albeit productive) player. When you sign a 29/30 year old for 8 years it is always buyer beware, so no excuse here...

While Flyers did not sign Ellis the same concept applies as SC -- buyer beware...

Yeah, the whole league faced Covid & the flat cap.

But when you inherit a team that's 2nd to last in the conference, full of prospects who ultimately fall flat, your best players like Couturier and Hayes and Ellis basically miss entire seasons with injuries, your supposed star prospect in Patrick can't even play, you have a young goalie who falls apart for reasons that we now probably know, and you have no cap room, you're kind of up against it.

This wasn't an even playing field for all teams in the league.

To say you should be able to snap your fingers and solve it is ridiculous. No, in that situation you're pretty much resolved to drafting better, which it seems they have, but we're talking about 18 year olds who are typically going to take years before making a meaningful impact, if they do.

 

[freakydallas13]

We must heed the cautionary tale of drafting Patrick. Remain vigilant at all times, and don't hype up draftees because that one we drafted once busted. Buium could BUST just like Patrick did.

Not Luchanko though, we'll revisit the decision to draft him in 5 years when he's a two way 1C, obviously.

 

[freakydallas13]

I mean Chuck basically turned over half of Hextall's awful roster.

Hextall's last full season the Flyers finished 6th in the east and won a divisional playoff spot.

Fletcher's last full season the Flyers were the 3rd worst team in the east, well behind powerhouse teams like Buffalo and Ottawa. After also missing the playoffs the previous 2 seasons.

Turned over Hextall's awful roster indeed.

 

[deadhead]

Yeah, the whole league faced Covid & the flat cap.

But when you inherit a team that's 2nd to last in the conference, full of prospects who ultimately fall flat, your best players like Couturier and Hayes and Ellis basically miss entire seasons with injuries, your supposed star prospect in Patrick can't even play, you have a young goalie who falls apart for reasons that we now probably know, and you have no cap room, you're kind of up against it.

This wasn't an even playing field for all teams in the league.

To say you should be able to snap your fingers and solve it is ridiculous. No, in that situation you're pretty much resolved to drafting better, which it seems they have, but we're talking about 18 year olds who are typically going to take years before making a meaningful impact, if they do.

Well, a smart organization would have thrown in the towel after 2020-21 and started a rebuild.
But AV had 3 years left and Scott wouldn't allow that word to be spoken.

Hextall's last full season the Flyers finished 6th in the east and won a divisional playoff spot.

Fletcher's last full season the Flyers were the 3rd worst team in the east, well behind powerhouse teams like Buffalo and Ottawa. After also missing the playoffs the previous 2 seasons.

Turned over Hextall's awful roster indeed.

That's very disingenuous, since what got Hextall fired was the next season, when they cratered.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Hextall's last full season the Flyers finished 6th in the east and won a divisional playoff spot.

Fletcher's last full season the Flyers were the 3rd worst team in the east, well behind powerhouse teams like Buffalo and Ottawa. After also missing the playoffs the previous 2 seasons.

Turned over Hextall's awful roster indeed.

When Ron Hextall was fired, in November 2018 in the fifth season of his grand plan, the Flyers were 10-12-2 and in last place in the Eastern Conference.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yeah, NAK who has played in four different organizations in the last three seasons, who has been waived multiple times by multiple organizations, and who spent 11 games in the AHL last season at age 27 with 1 goal and 2 assists.

Who is better than Deslauriers, and cheaper.

By the way, per your "Authority Must Always Be Respected and Obeyed" mantra, the fact that this many teams has wanted him to play is an argument against Fletcher's decision. They're authorities, you know. You must bow to them. You cannot question the wisdom of several superior teams.

 

[freakydallas13]

That's very disingenuous, since what got Hextall fired was the next season, when they cratered.

It's also true.

When Ron Hextall was fired, in November 2018 in the fifth season of his grand plan, the Flyers were 10-12-2 and in last place in the Eastern Conference.

Which do you think is more valuable, a whole season or the first 24 games of a season?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Now when they say "rebuild" it's because they know they have to utter it as a lie to get basic buy-in. Otherwise everything is the same.


What an improvement!

 

[deadhead]

It's also true.


Which do you think is more valuable, a whole season or the first 24 games of a season?

Ask Holmgren.

 

[freakydallas13]

Ask Holmgren.

The same Holmgren you tell us is entirely at fault for how piss poor the team was during the Fletcher years, and who is single handedly responsible for running the Flyers into the dirt?

Is that the Holmgren to whom's authority you are appealing? I just want to double check.

 

[deadhead]

Now when they say "rebuild" it's because they know they have to utter it as a lie to get basic buy-in. Otherwise everything is the same.


What an improvement!

They've accumulated 6 1sts and 6 2nds from 2023-2025. I'd say that's a pretty strong commitment to rebuilding. Hextall accumulated 8 1sts and 6 2nds over a 5 year period.

11 of the 20 players who'll play on a regular basis are 25 and under.

The only big money contract has been to 27 year old TK.
The only veteran FA signing was Hathaway (Seeler was on the roster).
The only trade for a veteran was a 4th rd for Johnson during a PO push.

I expect Briere to make some more moves over the next year or so, Laughton, Risto, Deslauriers. Maybe move out some prospects they don't see their future to make room for these draft picks the next couple years.
Maybe a package for a young top six center.

 

[Beef Invictus]

They've accumulated 6 1sts and 6 2nds from 2023-2025. I'd say that's a pretty strong commitment to rebuilding. Hextall accumulated 8 1sts and 6 2nds over a 5 year period.

11 of the 20 players who'll play on a regular basis are 25 and under.

The only big money contract has been to 27 year old TK.
The only veteran FA signing was Hathaway (Seeler was on the roster).
The only trade for a veteran was a 4th rd for Johnson during a PO push.

I expect Briere to make some more moves over the next year or so, Laughton, Risto, Deslauriers. Maybe move out some prospects they don't see their future to make room for these draft picks the next couple years.
Maybe a package for a young top six center.

Ah yeah? Is it? Are they actually going to use them? Why are they doing that now, and not 1-2 years ago? Will they actually let any of those picks play? How many of them will they drive off by being intensely toxic?

You've been insisting they're rebuilding based upon occasional draft pick acquisitions for years now. In response, Jones revealed that the rebuild thing is just a lie for the fans.

 

[deadhead]

If they were trying to make the playoffs, why didn't they sign a FA center?
Why haven't they traded draft picks for veterans?

The complaints come down to not trading Laughton and Hathaway and Seeler.
Laughton might get you a Walker deal (i.e. 2nd rd unless you take on money and give picks back)
Hathaway a 3rd? Seeler a 3rd?
Not exactly moves that would have a major impact, but would leave gaping holes.

 

[freakydallas13]

If they were trying to make the playoffs, why didn't they sign a FA center?
Why haven't they traded draft picks for veterans?

The complaints come down to not trading Laughton and Hathaway and Seeler.
Laughton might get you a Walker deal (i.e. 2nd rd unless you take on money and give picks back)
Hathaway a 3rd? Seeler a 3rd?
Not exactly moves that would have a major impact, but would leave gaping holes.

If they're rebuilding, why haven't they traded Laughton at any of the half dozen opportunities they have had to do so?

 

[Flyerfan4life]

If they're rebuilding, why haven't they traded Laughton at any of the half dozen opportunities they have had to do so?

pssst cuz they arent rebuilding...

 

[deadhead]

If they're rebuilding, why haven't they traded Laughton at any of the half dozen opportunities they have had to do so?

Because they don't have enough centers.

Cates has been moved back to LW, Rizzo they want to see in AHL. That's pretty much it for alternatives.

I think if Briere could land another center Laughton would be made available (he's not playing ahead of Foerster and Cates at LW, maybe move Foerster to RW and bench Brink).