Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 13: Jett Luchanko, C, Guelph (OHL) - 7/6 Upd: Signed 3yr ELC

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deadhead

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I’m sure you, the Marcel Proust of this message board, could squeeze in a couple games.

Humor me. On which side of the line is arguing about CHL games you don’t watch?
If you're going to seriously scout a player at that level, you need to watch 10-20 games, one or two isn't going to tell you much, especially if you aren't familiar with the league and can benchmark against opposing players.

I watch the Flyers, and LHV when they're on Philly TV. That's enough of my life.
 
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freakydallas13

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Much easier to not be set back by those draft whiffs when a franchise defenseman (Fox) and a franchise forward (Panarin) both decide they will only play for your organization and either force a trade to you or sign with you as a FA the year after those whiffs. Then get the 1st overall pick in the lottery on top of that.
Not saying it was easy, just that it's possible. Plus, like Deadhead said, you can attribute a lot of their success to the goalie they drafted.
 

Magua

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If you're going to seriously scout a player at that level, you need to watch 10-20 games, one or two isn't going to tell you much, especially if you aren't familiar with the league and can benchmark against opposing players.

I’ll let famed Flyers scout, Simon Nolet, debunk that one:

“You watch a game and they come to you. They do little things. Vision. How they pass the puck. Work ethic. So you watch for those kinds of things, but it is still hard to say after the first couple of games if a player is going to be a first-rounder. It usually takes about five times, unless the guy is a superstar — you see that right away.

"Mostly, you can't go on just one or two games. What if he has a cold one night? What if he is a little bit hurt? You don't get to see what he has. About five games, you can tell. You try to see him on the road, in different situations, how he reacts. About five games.

That’s been my experience too. If you know what you’re watching (a big if), any more games than that you don’t learn much. Diminished returns and such. He’s also on the money with guys that look like stars: it smacks you in the face instantly. 20 games? That only makes sense if you want to gate-keep or mythologize amateur scouting.
 

deadhead

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I’ll let famed Flyers scout, Simon Nolet, debunk that one:



That’s been my experience too. If you know what you’re watching (a big if), any more games than that you don’t learn much. Diminished returns and such. He’s also on the money with guys that look like stars: it smacks you in the face instantly. 20 games? That only makes sense if you want to gate-keep or mythologize amateur scouting.
Except for one problem, at the CHL level, a 17/18 year old can make substantial progress from October to April, you're not going to see the same improvement at say the AHL level from a 22 year old prospect.

My rule is simple, if a player doesn't jump out at you, he's probably not head and shoulders above his peers. Though again, for really young players, this can change over 6 months to a year due to physical maturing and gaining a HC's confidence.
 

FLYguy3911

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The best prospects tend to have long track records of success, across multiple levels, and seasons. A legit prospect is unlikely to throw out 5 consecutive stinker performances no matter what sample of games you pick. Breakouts tend to come via usage (and confidence that may come with it) and not some substantial physical growth - especially in season. The ingridents are almost always there though.
 

deadhead

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You've been saying this for almost 10 years.

At what point do you stop trolling?
Hextall started right, then stopped. Had he continued to rebuild in 2015-16, by 2018 they would have been a competitive team, instead he stopped for two years, then traded Schenn in the summer of 2017. Then Holmgren ran out of patience.

With Fletcher it was always about the window closing with G, Voracek, etc.
They didn't have two more years, they had two years period.

This is Briere's 2nd season (took over in spring 2023).
Given the emphasis on the 2025 draft, you have to figure 2027-28 is when he'll stop rebuilding.
5 years is a reasonable time for a rebuild (a tank takes 7-10 years).
 

04hockey

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Flyers draft history, aside from the last 2/3 years, would get a solid D from me. It's depressing going on hockey db and reading their choices 😵‍💫
 
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captainpaxil

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Kid is friggin fast. I'm hoping briere is as infatuated with speed as history has been with size. Jet can be a flyer
 

Ghosts Beer

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Flyers draft history, aside from the last 2/3 years, would get a solid D from me. It's depressing going on hockey db and reading their choices 😵‍💫
Hextall's entire strategy was to acquire draft picks.

And he whiffed on way, way too many of them for his strategy to succeed.

His talent evaluation is awful. A guy who gave a 4 year deal to Dale Weise. Whose best professional level acquisition in 5 years was Radko Gudas.

A guy who in Pittsburgh traded a 2nd rd pick to rent Mikael Granlund for a month, who proceeded to score 1 goal and 5 assists in 21 games as they missed the playoffs.

Thankfully, they appear to be drafting much better under Flahr, whether that be with Fletcher or Briere.
 
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deadhead

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The best prospects tend to have long track records of success, across multiple levels, and seasons. A legit prospect is unlikely to throw out 5 consecutive stinker performances no matter what sample of games you pick. Breakouts tend to come via usage (and confidence that may come with it) and not some substantial physical growth - especially in season. The ingridents are almost always there though.
I.e. the most talented offense players. The elite offense producers tend to show up earlier, b/c speed, agility, body control, vision, etc. will tend to show at an early age and almost always by 18-19.

The list of top prospects for the next draft will change drastically between August and next June. While some players are already mature for their age, a lot will make a big jump from 17 to 18. These jumps come from physical maturity, experience and sometimes just developing better coordination and body control, especially for bigger players or those who physically mature later.
 

renberg

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My rule is simple, if a player doesn't jump out at you, he's probably not head and shoulders above his peers. Though again, for really young players, this can change over 6 months to a year due to physical maturing and gaining a HC's confidence.
It's hard to predict what an eighteen year old will be three years down the line. Not only physically but mentally and emotionally.
My call is that with Provorov and Patrick, the Flyers were lazy and didn't dig down with their evaluation of these guys beyond fleeting looks at them on the ice and recommendations from Hextall's buddies back in Brandon.
Draft choices are huge investments in the future of a business and should be treated as such. No stone should go unturned in getting to know what the organization is attempting to buy when they make a selection. Do you think that Warren Buffet just picks his investments from what his buddies tell him or from reading the writing on the bathroom walls? The Flyers really need to up their ante with draft evaluations. There's no excuse for not knowing what a Gauthier or Kolosov is like and might do as a draft pick. The Flyers need to do their homework.
 

deadhead

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Kid is friggin fast. I'm hoping briere is as infatuated with speed as history has been with size. Jet can be a flyer
Signed Poehling, traded for Drysdale, drafted Ciernek, Luchanko.

However, speed is just one attribute valued highly, hockey IQ is also high on the list, along with work ethic and high motor.

Size is more about balance, when Briere took over they were one of the smallest teams in the NHL (despite that, only average speed).
 
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deadhead

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Good IQ, decent size, good puck handling, strength, and f***ing FAST haha
That's why I see him as a high floor center, at worst an above average, two way 3C.
With his speed, stout body and high IQ, should be a top defensive center.

Question is his offense, a two way center who scores 50 ES points is a top 1C, 40, 2C, 30, 3C.
 

Beef Invictus

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No, when you completely blow the 2nd overall pick (that you lucked into via lottery); screw up a 7th overall pick; sign Weise, Boyd Gordon, and JVR; trade Hartnell for Umberger; and your best trade acquisition is Radko Gudas; blow other first round and 2nd round picks on Jay O'Brien, German Rubtsov, Isaac Ratcliffe, Pascal Laberge, um, yeah, that's not easy to just "fix," especially after a pandemic that leads to an unprecedented salary cap halt.

Six. Years.

You would have a point in 2020. Not six years later and with the team in worse overall shape aside from one massive stroke of luck.

When 2030 rolls around and the team still isn't over the hump, are you still going to be blaming Hextall?
 

renberg

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I'm not able to watch, what has he shown today? Outside of being fast, that is.
This kid has the “it” factor. I’m recalling that some evaluators had him neck and neck with Bedard going into the draft year. He may be that good. He has hands, moves and vision that few have. It’ll more than make up for not having elite speed.
 

Beef Invictus

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If you're going to seriously scout a player at that level, you need to watch 10-20 games, one or two isn't going to tell you much, especially if you aren't familiar with the league and can benchmark against opposing players.

I watch the Flyers, and LHV when they're on Philly TV. That's enough of my life.

So 10-20 games is a good idea for assessment?


But five days of practice and scrimmage is even better??????????
 

deadhead

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2024 is six years later than 2020? Must be "new math."

That 2020 team didn't have much of a future
JVR (31), G (33), Voracek (31), Couts (28), Hayes (28), Raffl (32)
Ghost (27), Gustaffson (28), Braun (33)

25 and under:
Farabee (20), TK (23), Lindblom (24), NAK (24), Patrick (22), Allison (23), Bunnaman (22)
Sanheim (24), Provorov (24), Myers (24), Hagg (25)
Hart (22)

Some bad luck, but that was a team built to "win now," should have been blown up after that season.
Instead, two more years of futility before CF and Scott were fired.
 

Beef Invictus

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2024 is six years later than 2020? Must be "new math."

That 2020 team didn't have much of a future
JVR (31), G (33), Voracek (31), Couts (28), Hayes (28), Raffl (32)
Ghost (27), Gustaffson (28), Braun (33)

25 and under:
Farabee (20), TK (23), Lindblom (24), NAK (24), Patrick (22), Allison (23), Bunnaman (22)
Sanheim (24), Provorov (24), Myers (24), Hagg (25)
Hart (22)

Some bad luck, but that was a team built to "win now," should have been blown up after that season.
Instead, two more years of futility before CF and Scott were fired.

2018 is when Hextall was fired. It has been six years since he had been making any decisions. Nothing currently wrong with the team is his fault anymore, because there has been an eon of time to address all of it. Not new math. Just basic facts!

The idea the 2020 team didn't have much future is insane, especially given how much you were hyping up that future at the time.
 

deadhead

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So 10-20 games is a good idea for assessment?


But five days of practice and scrimmage is even better??????????
Rookie camp is less about evaluation than giving the kids a sense of NHL facilities and play.
Fun to watch, but I doubt anyone makes decisions off two rookie games.

Now 4-5 exhibition games in TC will give talent evaluators a feel about a prospect's readiness, especially those coming out of college or the CHL. How they handle more physical play, smaller windows, etc.
 

Beef Invictus

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Rookie camp is less about evaluation than giving the kids a sense of NHL facilities and play.
Fun to watch, but I doubt anyone makes decisions off two rookie games.

Now 4-5 exhibition games in TC will give talent evaluators a feel about a prospect's readiness, especially those coming out of college or the CHL. How they handle more physical play, smaller windows, etc.

Oh ok, so 4-5 workout scrimmages is superior to 10-20 actual real games. OK.
 
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deadhead

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2018 is when Hextall was fired. It has been six years since he had been making any decisions. Nothing currently wrong with the team is his fault anymore, because there has been an eon of time to address all of it. Not new math. Just basic facts!

The idea the 2020 team didn't have much future is insane, especially given how much you were hyping up that future at the time.
Hextall's last couple drafts didn't arrive until 2022-2023.

Farabee 2018 - starter in 2020-21
Ersson 2018 - starter in 2023-24
Frost 2017 - starter in 2022-23
Cates 2017 - starter in 2022-23
Lycksell 2017 - 2024-25?
Zamula 2018 - starter in 2023-24
Patrick 2017 -
Ratcliffe 2017 -
O'Brien 2018 -
Ginning 2018 -

Drafts impact a team 3-5 years after, only a few elite players start by their D+2 season.
So we won't know for 2 more years if the 2019-2022 (CF/Flahr) drafts have an impact
Brink, Attard, Andrae, Desnoyers, Tuomaala, Kolosov, Bump, McDonald.
 
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