Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[deprw]

And did so his first year as GM, which completely refutes your original contention.

BTW, love the comment beginning with "probably", keep those creative juices flowing and that agenda spinning.

I think this narrative around Dubas is so funny because we had Lou. GM that couldn't address these issues and you don't have to use word probably when you talk about Lou and understanding importance of physical play and intangibles. We also had Babcock that as first thing bashed Dubas for acquiring Muzzin. We actually had experienced hockey minds that made this same mistake, that Dubas started to fix.

Basicly Dubas was out of this bunch first that really acted on this physical front. We can argue that if he did enough or got it right, but it wasn't about fans telling him after two years that his philosophy was wrong. Building our core started with Tavares and Muzzin.

It can be argued that if we should have made room for Lucic or over paid Reaves. I think Lou would have done that Muzzin trade and much more, but NHL isn't supermarket where you buy physical players in the peak of their career for scraps. Trouba wanted to New York, so you can't get any player you want.

 

[Gabriel426]

The core guys all had very good playoffs. The fact that you can point to some McDavid and a few other guys and say but look, these guys had more points doesn't change that fact.

I mostly agree with regular season vs playoffs but it doesn't quite mean nothing. In terms of goals/accomplishments I'd mostly agree but in terms of assessing how we're set up for the future, it's far from nothing. If it was nothing then you'd have MTL as one the top cup favourites going into last season which would be ridiculous.

I don't agree that they're "quite far" from TB. They finished ahead of them over the 82 game regular season and while I might agree that that means nothing had they got destroyed by TB in the playoffs, they played them like equals over those 7 games. I'd say they were pretty close to TB this season, hard to say about next year until we see the roster (and especially who's in net for us) but this year, this was a very good team.

Mentally weak - again, their play this season suggests otherwise. Last summer I would have been more likely to think you're onto something though I'd have trouble saying which guys specifically are the problem, as we've seen so many players over the years go to other teams and have a ton of success. But if you'd like to say which players are keepers, the ones that "we can win with" and which are the losers who we need to move because they're mentally weak and therefore they'll never have success in the playoffs, I'd be interested in hearing what you think.

Compare to the past few seasons, core guys had very good playoffs but compare to their regular season, they are a bit underwhelming and didn't really hit that playoff switch or gear. That could also be bc TB is a great team too. But like I said many times in the past, if the current Leafs wants to win the Cup, they will have to beat teams like the Bruins, TB... they will have to find ways to beat goalies who are playing out of their minds, or teams playing great D. You cannot hope to run into goalies playing bad or easy teams or whatever.

At this point, Leafs being a playoffs team unless huge injury crisis, regular season really means nothing. I think you would agree that Leafs is not fighting for a playoffs spot, they are a team challenging for the Cup. It is what they do in the playoffs that matters. AM can score 80 goals next season, MM and Willie can both hit 100 pts, but if they can't move past the first round, that will be 7 years in a row. Also, getting into the 2nd round is a step forward but thats far from enough. The team should not be proud of winning a round, they should be piss for not advancing to the Cup.

They are far from TB bc they don't have a goalie like Vas, even though the boys made him look human in the series. Also, they don't have the buy in from everyone top to bottom. Look at how TB plays and how each players were blocking shots in all those elimination games. I don't see that from the Leafs yet. That could change next season but to think they would have swept the Panthers like TB did, I don't think the Leafs is capable of that. Also this goes back to a few years, when I mentioned in the WJC thread. I asked that how does TB do it. It seems like the best players from each teams are often TB mid to late round picks. I know WJC is a small sample size but it is also one of the few times these players are playing against the best players in their age. Point being the ultimate outliner. It shows either TB is really lucky to pick players who can pick up their game or their scouts can really spot the intangibles in pre-draft players. The good thing is, I am seeing that from the Leafs too in the last two WJC, hopefully, thats something the Leafs can continue.

In terms of mentally weak, I really don't know who to keep and who not to keep. AM might scored 60 goals but maybe he can't play under pressure. Willie might stop skating to break up an icing but he seems to always elevate his game when the going gets tough, I think he is also the only guy who led a team to Championship while turning pro. I know Muz and JT won stuff with TC but they didn't really lead, they were just part of the team. MM might overthink when the team is not playing well but he seems to be all hussle when the team needs him. JT might be quiet for 59mins of the game but all he needs is 10secs to make magic. Unless I am inside the room, I really don't know who to keep or not to keep. To me, I don't think anyone on the team is untouchable, but it also has to make sense for the team. Personally, getting a goalie is the #1 priority bc having someone reliable in net solves and masks a lot of defensive problems. Kerfoot, Holl and Sandin are three top trading chips. They need to resign Boosh but put him in the bottom pairing with Gio and let Muz plays with Lilly. Or sign someone to play with Reilly, and let Muz pair with TJ while having Gio and Lilly as bottom pairing. The person to play with Reilly doesn't even need to be great, he just needs to be really solid in Defense, like Hanisey. Would like a forechecking 3rd line. Appleton is someone I would bring in, and so is Kap if their price is right. Also figuring out how to allocate JT, AM, Willie and MM in the line up is also important. Are they at a point where they are comfortable with dropping 10-15pts in their regular season stats in order to have a more balance lineups thus better chance in advancing in the playoffs.

Also, my point had more to do with Keefe stating earning respect from others in the handshake line. If thats the mentality he has, just imagine what he said to the boys behind closed doors. "We did great guys, we almost beat the 2 times reigning Champs, you guys should be proud of yourself....." I would rather someone say, "We should beat them, they didn't beat us, lets work hard and kill them next season." There is no doubt that they team made progress and I am glad they no longer think if only JT didnt get injured or we did the same thing but just could score....This past playoffs is a good building block but it came a few years too late and most importantly, it really depends on what they do in the next playoffs. IF they win a few rounds, then it is a good building blocks, but if they lose again in Game 7 at home while having a 3-2 lead after 5 games, then what happened this year is for nothing. A lot like the come back against BJs in Game 4, I even said it in the post game thread, the comeback is great but it means nothing if they can't win Game 5.

 

[deprw]

Win something - less negativity and the posters like myself will gladly eat words
Keep losing - Dubas supporters will never sway - he's the man to them. Regardless of results.

It seems like some just want a cheering forum, and negative posters stay away

I think the issue are hot takes that are easily debunked, but here those are parroted around. If we have this dubasites or advanced stats front that tries to find positive things and people are accusing them for bogus and skewing numbers. There is also this negative front, that takes every move and spin it to the absolute negative stance, that has no substance to back it up anymore.

You call these wasted years, but if you really think this core is flawed. We will have tons of those, since it will be another 5-10 years rebuild to fix that up.

I don't think so. This is absolute pressure cooker and we have to find way to build our core up to the point, that it can handle that pressure, all the ridicule from league and fight their way trough playoffs. We preach for character and toughness, but it's way different way of thinking how you really handle pressure and build environment where you can succeed. This team and city needs that more than fake toughness.

It's interesting to read takes from Finnish coaches that have found that winning formula in international hockey. We crumbled with pressure earlier (since this sport is so popular and we still lack top end talent, but still expect to win) and the solution behind the scenes isn't ultra competitive tough mentality. It's putting things in right context and not making this life and death. It's sports in the end.

We look things differently and I'm no dubasite I just see the logic behind our actions. You don't.

 

[Gabriel426]

In terms of toughness. I think Dubas never really said, screw physical toughness, but rather he used to believe that physical toughness is easier to acquire than skills. Thats why he would draft skills than physical toughness(big and tough). Muz is a tough player but he is not Tom Wilson playing in defence and even Muz admitted that. I think one of the earlier quotes from Muz was something like, 'I don't know why they cheer so loud whenever I land at hit.' I think that quote just shows what type of team the Leafs were at that time.
Dubas is learning and I can see he is not relying too much on stats or wanting to beat the system by reinventing the wheel as before. The question should be, is Keefe the right coach under this new Dubas vision.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Compare to the past few seasons, core guys had very good playoffs but compare to their regular season, they are a bit underwhelming and didn't really hit that playoff switch or gear. That could also be bc TB is a great team too. But like I said many times in the past, if the current Leafs wants to win the Cup, they will have to beat teams like the Bruins, TB... they will have to find ways to beat goalies who are playing out of their minds, or teams playing great D. You cannot hope to run into goalies playing bad or easy teams or whatever.

At this point, Leafs being a playoffs team unless huge injury crisis, regular season really means nothing. I think you would agree that Leafs is not fighting for a playoffs spot, they are a team challenging for the Cup. It is what they do in the playoffs that matters. AM can score 80 goals next season, MM and Willie can both hit 100 pts, but if they can't move past the first round, that will be 7 years in a row. Also, getting into the 2nd round is a step forward but thats far from enough. The team should not be proud of winning a round, they should be piss for not advancing to the Cup.

They are far from TB bc they don't have a goalie like Vas, even though the boys made him look human in the series. Also, they don't have the buy in from everyone top to bottom. Look at how TB plays and how each players were blocking shots in all those elimination games. I don't see that from the Leafs yet. That could change next season but to think they would have swept the Panthers like TB did, I don't think the Leafs is capable of that. Also this goes back to a few years, when I mentioned in the WJC thread. I asked that how does TB do it. It seems like the best players from each teams are often TB mid to late round picks. I know WJC is a small sample size but it is also one of the few times these players are playing against the best players in their age. Point being the ultimate outliner. It shows either TB is really lucky to pick players who can pick up their game or their scouts can really spot the intangibles in pre-draft players. The good thing is, I am seeing that from the Leafs too in the last two WJC, hopefully, thats something the Leafs can continue.

In terms of mentally weak, I really don't know who to keep and who not to keep. AM might scored 60 goals but maybe he can't play under pressure. Willie might stop skating to break up an icing but he seems to always elevate his game when the going gets tough, I think he is also the only guy who led a team to Championship while turning pro. I know Muz and JT won stuff with TC but they didn't really lead, they were just part of the team. MM might overthink when the team is not playing well but he seems to be all hussle when the team needs him. JT might be quiet for 59mins of the game but all he needs is 10secs to make magic. Unless I am inside the room, I really don't know who to keep or not to keep. To me, I don't think anyone on the team is untouchable, but it also has to make sense for the team. Personally, getting a goalie is the #1 priority bc having someone reliable in net solves and masks a lot of defensive problems. Kerfoot, Holl and Sandin are three top trading chips. They need to resign Boosh but put him in the bottom pairing with Gio and let Muz plays with Lilly. Or sign someone to play with Reilly, and let Muz pair with TJ while having Gio and Lilly as bottom pairing. The person to play with Reilly doesn't even need to be great, he just needs to be really solid in Defense, like Hanisey. Would like a forechecking 3rd line. Appleton is someone I would bring in, and so is Kap if their price is right. Also figuring out how to allocate JT, AM, Willie and MM in the line up is also important. Are they at a point where they are comfortable with dropping 10-15pts in their regular season stats in order to have a more balance lineups thus better chance in advancing in the playoffs.

Also, my point had more to do with Keefe stating earning respect from others in the handshake line. If thats the mentality he has, just imagine what he said to the boys behind closed doors. "We did great guys, we almost beat the 2 times reigning Champs, you guys should be proud of yourself....." I would rather someone say, "We should beat them, they didn't beat us, lets work hard and kill them next season." There is no doubt that they team made progress and I am glad they no longer think if only JT didnt get injured or we did the same thing but just could score....This past playoffs is a good building block but it came a few years too late and most importantly, it really depends on what they do in the next playoffs. IF they win a few rounds, then it is a good building blocks, but if they lose again in Game 7 at home while having a 3-2 lead after 5 games, then what happened this year is for nothing. A lot like the come back against BJs in Game 4, I even said it in the post game thread, the comeback is great but it means nothing if they can't win Game 5.

I mostly agree with your post. The abbreviated quote from Keefe does bother me,( not just because you used it, but because it took a life on its own on the board), people start to believe that was the quote when it is only part of it, and not even the main point of the quote. The part about not being in the respect game, but being in the winning game was the point. Besides, there is nothing essentially wrong with gaining respect. Sutter said so as well without the fanfare.

 

[Gabriel426]

I mostly agree with your post. The abbreviated quote from Keefe does bother me,( not just because you used it, but because it took a life on its own on the board), people start to believe that was the quote when it is only part of it, and not even the main point of the quote. The part about not being in the respect game, but being in the winning game was the point. Besides, there is nothing essentially wrong with gaining respect. Sutter said so as well without the fanfare.

To me, maybe Keefe wanted to be political and nice...but the game is about winning not gaining respect from the opposing team. If Leafs win the Cup, thats respect. Respect is earned from winning.
I just don't think Keefe is the right coach for the Leafs when Trotz is available.

 

[Leaf Fans]

To me, maybe Keefe wanted to be political and nice...but the game is about winning not gaining respect from the opposing team. If Leafs win the Cup, thats respect. Respect is earned from winning.
I just don't think Keefe is the right coach for the Leafs when Trotz is available.t

I have no problem with your beliefs. I don't share them completely though I would like the Leafs to win.

 

[justashadowof]

The Leafs have lost 4 straight playoff series since Dubas "addressed" the team's hardness issues by acquiring Muzzin.

 

[Lightsol]

In terms of toughness. I think Dubas never really said, screw physical toughness, but rather he used to believe that physical toughness is easier to acquire than skills. Thats why he would draft skills than physical toughness(big and tough). Muz is a tough player but he is not Tom Wilson playing in defence and even Muz admitted that. I think one of the earlier quotes from Muz was something like, 'I don't know why they cheer so loud whenever I land at hit.' I think that quote just shows what type of team the Leafs were at that time.
Dubas is learning and I can see he is not relying too much on stats or wanting to beat the system by reinventing the wheel as before. The question should be, is Keefe the right coach under this new Dubas vision.

Physical toughness IS easier to obtain than skill. But what people here want isn't physical toughness; it's a combination of physical toughness AND skill, and to get a player like that either requires tanking (because they're generally gone near the top if they have real potential) or repeated failed picks, because finishing a Milan Lucic is NOT easy (and you'd think Leaf fans would be aware of that, considering finding that player was Burke's goal for his entire time in Toronto, and he repeatedly failed).

Skilled guys with potential tend to be easier to find, and if you hit on more than you can ice in one lineup, you can bundle them together to get alternate options. Dubas' goal is clearly to try and hit on as many picks as he can, which is a different drafting philosophy than previous regimes had (most of them were willing to invest draft picks in possible unicorns hoping that one would turn out to actually BE a unicorn).

The Leafs have lost 4 straight playoff series since Dubas "addressed" the team's hardness issues by acquiring Muzzin.

The Leafs have lost 6 straight playoff series. In EVERY one of those series, the Leafs have had the second-best goalie in the series. That's with Lou & Babcok, Dubas & Babcock and Dubas & Keefe.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Compare to the past few seasons, core guys had very good playoffs but compare to their regular season, they are a bit underwhelming and didn't really hit that playoff switch or gear. That could also be bc TB is a great team too. But like I said many times in the past, if the current Leafs wants to win the Cup, they will have to beat teams like the Bruins, TB... they will have to find ways to beat goalies who are playing out of their minds, or teams playing great D. You cannot hope to run into goalies playing bad or easy teams or whatever.

At this point, Leafs being a playoffs team unless huge injury crisis, regular season really means nothing. I think you would agree that Leafs is not fighting for a playoffs spot, they are a team challenging for the Cup. It is what they do in the playoffs that matters. AM can score 80 goals next season, MM and Willie can both hit 100 pts, but if they can't move past the first round, that will be 7 years in a row. Also, getting into the 2nd round is a step forward but thats far from enough. The team should not be proud of winning a round, they should be piss for not advancing to the Cup.

They are far from TB bc they don't have a goalie like Vas, even though the boys made him look human in the series. Also, they don't have the buy in from everyone top to bottom. Look at how TB plays and how each players were blocking shots in all those elimination games. I don't see that from the Leafs yet. That could change next season but to think they would have swept the Panthers like TB did, I don't think the Leafs is capable of that. Also this goes back to a few years, when I mentioned in the WJC thread. I asked that how does TB do it. It seems like the best players from each teams are often TB mid to late round picks. I know WJC is a small sample size but it is also one of the few times these players are playing against the best players in their age. Point being the ultimate outliner. It shows either TB is really lucky to pick players who can pick up their game or their scouts can really spot the intangibles in pre-draft players. The good thing is, I am seeing that from the Leafs too in the last two WJC, hopefully, thats something the Leafs can continue.

In terms of mentally weak, I really don't know who to keep and who not to keep. AM might scored 60 goals but maybe he can't play under pressure. Willie might stop skating to break up an icing but he seems to always elevate his game when the going gets tough, I think he is also the only guy who led a team to Championship while turning pro. I know Muz and JT won stuff with TC but they didn't really lead, they were just part of the team. MM might overthink when the team is not playing well but he seems to be all hussle when the team needs him. JT might be quiet for 59mins of the game but all he needs is 10secs to make magic. Unless I am inside the room, I really don't know who to keep or not to keep. To me, I don't think anyone on the team is untouchable, but it also has to make sense for the team. Personally, getting a goalie is the #1 priority bc having someone reliable in net solves and masks a lot of defensive problems. Kerfoot, Holl and Sandin are three top trading chips. They need to resign Boosh but put him in the bottom pairing with Gio and let Muz plays with Lilly. Or sign someone to play with Reilly, and let Muz pair with TJ while having Gio and Lilly as bottom pairing. The person to play with Reilly doesn't even need to be great, he just needs to be really solid in Defense, like Hanisey. Would like a forechecking 3rd line. Appleton is someone I would bring in, and so is Kap if their price is right. Also figuring out how to allocate JT, AM, Willie and MM in the line up is also important. Are they at a point where they are comfortable with dropping 10-15pts in their regular season stats in order to have a more balance lineups thus better chance in advancing in the playoffs.

Also, my point had more to do with Keefe stating earning respect from others in the handshake line. If thats the mentality he has, just imagine what he said to the boys behind closed doors. "We did great guys, we almost beat the 2 times reigning Champs, you guys should be proud of yourself....." I would rather someone say, "We should beat them, they didn't beat us, lets work hard and kill them next season." There is no doubt that they team made progress and I am glad they no longer think if only JT didnt get injured or we did the same thing but just could score....This past playoffs is a good building block but it came a few years too late and most importantly, it really depends on what they do in the next playoffs. IF they win a few rounds, then it is a good building blocks, but if they lose again in Game 7 at home while having a 3-2 lead after 5 games, then what happened this year is for nothing. A lot like the come back against BJs in Game 4, I even said it in the post game thread, the comeback is great but it means nothing if they can't win Game 5.

Yeah I agree with most of this. I'm super tired so just a couple of quick thoughts.

I agree that getting a goalie is the #1 priority.

I'd like to keep Sandin. If we trade him, we better get something really good in return.

The handshake comment was so dumb. I'm not freaking out about it because actions are more important than words but yeah, it was dumb. I'll mollify myself by reminding myself that the last time Keefe said something that everyone thought was really dumb, he was right. That was if you remember, when we lost to CAR early in the season and Keefe said something about us playing better, measuring ourselves against a contender and taking a step in the right direction or whatever it was. It sounded incredibly stupid but guess what, that quote marked the end of our horrible start to the season and we immediately went on a tear that went on for months.

What I like the most about this post is this part:

There is no doubt that they team made progress and I am glad they no longer think if only JT didnt get injured or we did the same thing but just could score....This past playoffs is a good building block but it came a few years too late and most importantly, it really depends on what they do in the next playoffs. IF they win a few rounds, then it is a good building blocks, but if they lose again in Game 7 at home while having a 3-2 lead after 5 games, then what happened this year is for nothing. A lot like the come back against BJs in Game 4, I even said it in the post game thread, the comeback is great but it means nothing if they can't win Game 5.

I agree 100%. This year was either just another failure, or a decent building block that just should have happened a few years ago FFS but still ... so too early to judge this team, gotta give them at least another year. Most people here are too impatient to wait and they'd rather just blow it up but it's absolutely possible that good things will still happen with this group.

 

[fahad203]

I'm baffled Sutter won coach of year award

#fastestcoachto100

 

[Leaf Fans]

I'm baffled Sutter won coach of year award

#fastestcoachto100

Getting respect is also important to him. "I think just meeting the standards that are necessary to get some respect as an organization, as a player back, as a team back in the league,”

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

The leafs have decent defensive metrics because there’s no real way to measure defensive play.

Toronto is a good team, and we have the puck a lot. We have the puck a lot, which means the other team has is less. The other team has it less, so they get few chances. According to stats, that makes us good defensively.

What matters is what we do when we don’t have the puck, regardless of how often that is, and that’s really tough to measure. If somebody put together a defensive measure that compared certain chances against vs opponent’s offensive possession time, that would be a much more accurate measurement of actual defensive play.

That's why I always said Corsi was a stupid metric because it never accounted for quality. If you have a crappy D-man like Karlsson who has a crazy 65% corsi...but is literally useless for the other 35% when he doesn't have the puck and gets scored on a lot...is the 65% good? is 50-50 better if you are good defensively? see what I mean?

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

If you bring in Clifford and Simmonds to address it, to offset TB 4th line, and then you put them in the pressbox and lose 3 of the last 4 games while Perry and company impact the outcome, is it the type of players to address physicality, or the execution to stick with the plan?

I wouldn't be surprise if they now scrap that plan despite both players under contract for next year and rebuild the 4th now that Spezza is retired and most of next years changes come from icing a new 4th line,

I think one of the issues was the 4th line had zero identity. What was it supposed to be?.. A scoring line because of Spezza or a hitting line because of Clifford and Simmonds? This was the problem...they just assumed by putting a hodge-podge group together that had elements of both skill and sandpaper that it would work...it didn't.

 

[Racer88]

I think one of the issues was the 4th line had zero identity. What was it supposed to be?.. A scoring line because of Spezza or a hitting line because of Clifford and Simmonds? This was the problem...they just assumed by putting a hodge-podge group together that had elements of both skill and sandpaper that it would work...it didn't.

That’s how an amateur GM builds the team

 

[Gabriel426]

Yeah I agree with most of this. I'm super tired so just a couple of quick thoughts.

I agree that getting a goalie is the #1 priority.

I'd like to keep Sandin. If we trade him, we better get something really good in return.

The handshake comment was so dumb. I'm not freaking out about it because actions are more important than words but yeah, it was dumb. I'll mollify myself by reminding myself that the last time Keefe said something that everyone thought was really dumb, he was right. That was if you remember, when we lost to CAR early in the season and Keefe said something about us playing better, measuring ourselves against a contender and taking a step in the right direction or whatever it was. It sounded incredibly stupid but guess what, that quote marked the end of our horrible start to the season and we immediately went on a tear that went on for months.

What I like the most about this post is this part:

There is no doubt that they team made progress and I am glad they no longer think if only JT didnt get injured or we did the same thing but just could score....This past playoffs is a good building block but it came a few years too late and most importantly, it really depends on what they do in the next playoffs. IF they win a few rounds, then it is a good building blocks, but if they lose again in Game 7 at home while having a 3-2 lead after 5 games, then what happened this year is for nothing. A lot like the come back against BJs in Game 4, I even said it in the post game thread, the comeback is great but it means nothing if they can't win Game 5.

I agree 100%. This year was either just another failure, or a decent building block that just should have happened a few years ago FFS but still ... so too early to judge this team, gotta give them at least another year. Most people here are too impatient to wait and they'd rather just blow it up but it's absolutely possible that good things will still happen with this group.

I don't believe blowing it up and rebuild but rather, it needs to look at whats out there that can improve the team.
For example, if Sandin plus can get you someone like Carlo. Dubas needs to think about that bc a Dman like Carlo could be the defensive partner Reilly needs.
Trotz is another option, bc he is a better coach than Keefe.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think one of the issues was the 4th line had zero identity. What was it supposed to be?.. A scoring line because of Spezza or a hitting line because of Clifford and Simmonds? This was the problem...they just assumed by putting a hodge-podge group together that had elements of both skill and sandpaper that it would work...it didn't.

That’s how an amateur GM builds the team

Thats something needs to be done. The 4th line needs an identity. If it is up to me, it should be a crash and bang line.

 

[justashadowof]

The Leafs have lost 6 straight playoff series. In EVERY one of those series, the Leafs have had the second-best goalie in the series. That's with Lou & Babcok, Dubas & Babcock and Dubas & Keefe.

In the end, our goaltending has mostly performed up to and beyond their level of compensation. The decamillionaires repeatedly haven't performed up to the level of their compensation at crunch time in every single playoff series.

 

[fahad203]

Kadri trade alone should have been enough to fire Dubas
Zamboni lost alone should have been enough to fire Keefe

But we don't do that stuff

This is a safe space

 

[justashadowof]

I think one of the issues was the 4th line had zero identity. What was it supposed to be?.. A scoring line because of Spezza or a hitting line because of Clifford and Simmonds? This was the problem...they just assumed by putting a hodge-podge group together that had elements of both skill and sandpaper that it would work...it didn't.

I felt like for the first time in several seasons the team's defense corps looked like it had close to a proper mix. I don't feel the same way about the forward group. It feels like successful playoff teams have different styles of players in places where we had Engvall, Kerfoot, Spezza, Mikheyev. No personal hate on for any of these players, I recognize all of their abilities, but there's just something missing for their roles in intense playoff hockey.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

That's why I always said Corsi was a stupid metric because it never accounted for quality. If you have a crappy D-man like Karlsson who has a crazy 65% corsi...but is literally useless for the other 35% when he doesn't have the puck and gets scored on a lot...is the 65% good? is 50-50 better if you are good defensively? see what I mean?

If a player has a 65% Corsi, they are almost certainly a very high end player. There is always context, like usage and QOC and QOT which may result in some numbers looking better, but we if you are asking if the 65% is good, then the answer is without a doubt 'yes'. Nobody, not even Karlsson, had that kind of Corsi though. His best ES year with any kind of serious sample size was 59%, and he was deservedly a top defenseman that year.

And if you have a guy who has a 35 CF%, there is practically no situation where that player is "good", even if they played tough minutes on a bad team.

You can just look at the players who have those respective Corsi's and it speaks for itself.

Now if you are comparing 55% vs. 50%, then there are certain situations where the 50% is better. If the 55% guy is heavily sheltered, vs. the 50% guy who is not, then you take the 50% guy.

That does not mean the metric is "stupid". It just means it needs context, like literally any other piece of evaluation, whether it is a scouting report or a metric.

And it also does not mean winning the Corsi battle necessarily means you win the game, just like having more shots than the other team, or just plain dominating the other team, does not mean you win the game. But if you are telling me that doing these things, controlling the game more than the other team, spending more time in their zone, getting more chances on them, etc. does not lead to more wins, then you are just ignoring reality, because there is tangible proof that it does.

 

[pcruz]

The Leafs have lost 4 straight playoff series since Dubas "addressed" the team's hardness issues by acquiring Muzzin.

You don't "address" a philosophical issue by acquiring one player, or 2, or 3.

In the end, our goaltending has mostly performed up to and beyond their level of compensation. The decamillionaires repeatedly haven't performed up to the level of their compensation at crunch time in every single playoff series.

2 of the 3 did rise to the top though, this year.
1 of the 3 didn't get the chance to do so last year, and while Marner and Matthews were not good last year, they were hardly the reason the team lost.

Have we forgotten the Dermott giveaway in overtime leading directly to a goal and the bad goal in the other overtime game?


This year, finally, the big boys came to play.
They utterly dominated the odds-on favourites to win the Cup, a team that went on to sweep their next opponents by allowing all of 3 goals in 4 games.
The only real reasons that Tampa made it past Toronto was that Vasilevsky was amazing in Games 6 and 7, and that the special teams were a landslide win for Tampa.

Kucherov, one of the best players in the game, has finally surpassed Matthews in even strength points this post-season. He's played in 2 more series since Matthews has been sent home.

 

[LeafEgo]

If a player has a 65% Corsi, they are almost certainly a very high end player. There is always context, like usage and QOC and QOT which may result in some numbers looking better, but we if you are asking if the 65% is good, then the answer is without a doubt 'yes'. Nobody, not even Karlsson, had that kind of Corsi though. His best ES year with any kind of serious sample size was 59%, and he was deservedly a top defenseman that year.

And if you have a guy who has a 35 CF%, there is practically no situation where that player is "good", even if they played tough minutes on a bad team.

You can just look at the players who have those respective Corsi's and it speaks for itself.

Now if you are comparing 55% vs. 50%, then there are certain situations where the 50% is better. If the 55% guy is heavily sheltered, vs. the 50% guy who is not, then you take the 50% guy.

That does not mean the metric is "stupid". It just means it needs context, like literally any other piece of evaluation, whether it is a scouting report or a metric.

And it also does not mean winning the Corsi battle necessarily means you win the game, just like having more shots than the other team, or just plain dominating the other team, does not mean you win the game. But if you are telling me that doing these things, controlling the game more than the other team, spending more time in their zone, getting more chances on them, etc. does not lead to more wins, then you are just ignoring reality, because there is tangible proof that it does.

This explanation reads how I feel most advanced stats work in hockey. Helpful in the extremes, but not worth much in the middle ground.

 

[pcruz]

This explanation reads how I feel most advanced stats work in hockey. Helpful in the extremes, but not worth much in the middle ground.

Advanced stats are just data.

Alone, they mean nothing in sports.
You can't score a goal by taking 10 shots where each shot is worth 0.1 expected goals, that's just not how it works in real life.

However, they can be extremely useful when combined with real world data as well.

If a player takes 300 shots in a season and scores 45 goals, that's a real good season.
How can we delve a little deeper to see whether this is an outlier year, or if these stats are sustainable year to year?

We can look into where the shots are coming from on the ice, what kind of shots they are, etc.

Say the player took 200 shots from the slot. Those are always going to be higher danger shots and you would expect more of said shots to go into the net.

VS

The player taking 200 shots from the perimeter where there is a much lower chance of the puck going in.

At the end of the year, one player could have an expected goal tally of say 50, and the other of 30.

When you compare the 2, they both scored 45 goals, had 300 shots in total, but it's more likely that the player who shot more from in close will replicate that season whereas the other player had a really lucky year.

 

[Kalaish26]

Kadri trade alone should have been enough to fire Dubas
Zamboni lost alone should have been enough to fire Keefe

But we don't do that stuff

This is a safe space

Agreed, that Kadri trade is the reason I cannot get behind Dubas fully. I was so shocked to see a majority of people on here were really happy with the trade at the time, the idea of getting a Kadri "replacement" in Kerfoot to go along with Tyson Barrie. We just saw how another offensive minded D-man in Jake Gardiner was for us, so instead of learning from that he goes on to trade our best cost controlled asset for another one? The idea that Dubas thought adding Ceci and Barrie into our top 4 would improve our poor defence was mind boggling. Glad to see Kadri proving a lot of people wrong here.

Dubas has done some great things, but he has also made some rookie mistakes that have cost this team unfortunately. We can't afford to have a GM that is still learning on the job.