Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[Willchel Marlynder]

Watching the playoffs I have a hard time trying to grasp how this team hasn’t even managed to fluke out 1 series win in 6 tries.
People would take a wet dump in their pants if we were getting the kind of goaltending Edmonton is. And they are in the 3rd round.

All the cast offs, Bozak,Kadri,Barrie,Ceci immediately get further than we have.

The Rangers were in the finals (2014) the year we started the rebuild and hit the skids hard. Already back in the 3rd round.

This team is like putting Ketchup in orange juice and hot sauce on top. All good things by themselves, together it just doesn’t get it done.

Now on lucky number 7 try, I laugh at all the can’t blow it up posts. Another 1st round exit next year and this thing blew itself.

We will see for sure.

Honestly to not fluke out 1 win in 10 elimination games tells me that this team is one of three things 1. cursed 2. cripplingly mentally weak 3. Has the absolute worst luck ever.

I'm leaning to the second option, but won't rule out the first.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Honestly to not fluke out 1 win in 10 elimination games tells me that this team is one of three things 1. cursed 2. cripplingly mentally weak 3. Has the absolute worst luck ever.

I'm leaning to the second option, but won't rule out the first.

It is all three I tell you!

If it is 1 or 2, I mean what can you really do

 

[Gabriel426]

You bring up an interesting point in decision science. Prior vs. posterior belief.

Simple problem: You have a coin. Prior belief is that it is a fair coin and therefore you should have a 50/50 chance of winning independent of any prior result.

Then when you start flipping the coin, you get heads 5 times in a row. Based on the prior belief, the chances of that happening are (1/2)^5, or 3.125%. It is not zero, obviously, but then you really start questioning whether it is actually a fair coin. Maybe you start believing it is actually 60/40 towards heads, simply because it is very unlikely for 5 straight heads to occur with a fair coin. However if you flip the coin 1000 times, and the coin is, in fact, fair, you will see that there will almost certainly be some instance of 5 straight heads (or tails) over those 1000 trials but in the end, it will be approximately equal between heads and tails.

Why does any of this matter in hockey? Right now, it is statistically unlikely that the Leafs should have lost this often based on expectation. Which bares the question: Is our team just not good as expected or are they just really unlucky? The answer right now could be either. Maybe we are just in that stage of 5 straight heads on a fair coin, or maybe the coin is not as fair as we thought.

In reality, we were not as good as expected at the beginning. We had Lou and Babcock, two legends, in charge and a group of young stud talent and we hoped they would take us to the promise land right away like they had done in the past. In reality, there was a lot of pain, those two probably didn't do as good of a job as we would have expected/hoped, and especially in the case of Babcock, there was little hope/trust that things would get better with time or more iterations. Then with Dubas/Keefe, there has been progression in terms of expectations because this team has shown what it is capable of doing. Matthews is a 60 goal scorer. Marner has blossomed into a triple-digit player. We are significantly better defensively. We have a more well-rounded team that has challenged or looked better than many teams that, in terms of results, have been better than us. So those in charge and those making decisions are leaning towards a stretch of bad luck, or just one of those mental hurdles that needs to be climbed and they are confident will be climbed, before the flood gates open and this team can meet or exceed the lofty expectations that they, and Leafs fans, have for them. And that for now, the fact that this is a team that still is put into situations where we should be succeeding, and should be performing well, is about the best they can hope for. It is time for those who truly make the difference, which are the players (and especially the core players who have been given a ton of trust), to finally step up and exceed analytical expectation (although meeting analytical expectation through execution would be a good start and would get us far on its own) to win a Cup.

The saying is always you gotta be good to be lucky.
I don’t think the group is good enough to win the Cup.
Even if they beat TB, I don’t think they can sweep the Panthers like TB did.
AM and MM and even JT showed up this series but they didn’t dominate the series. AM did in Game one and I would say JT had many moments in Game 5-7. But again, they didn’t do it in the whole series. Look at McDavid, Mack and Makar. Makar had 9 pts in 4 games, I think that’s more points than any Leafs in a 7 games series.
I could careless if they finished top 5 in the regular season standings, bc it means nothing if they can’t win the Cup. This also applies to every team in the NHL.

They boys played better this playoffs but they are still quite far from TB. But that also applies to every team in the League too.

Honestly to not fluke out 1 win in 10 elimination games tells me that this team is one of three things 1. cursed 2. cripplingly mentally weak 3. Has the absolute worst luck ever.

I'm leaning to the second option, but won't rule out the first.

1. Cursed, don’t believe it.
2. Mentally weak, I agree with that. But I think it is more guys from the top telling that, it is okay, we got respect at the handshake line.
3. They might have used all their luck with the 6 V 5 in Game 4 against BJs.

 

[Leafblooded]

Maybe Shanny could play for the team too so they could save some money off the cap

 

[Gary Nylund]

Excuses/60 words is off the charts in this post.

Losing 6 times in a row in the opening/qualifying round and somehow spinning this into a positive not just for the team but the management group responsible for it is definitely a brave task that few could possibly attempt without the sheer volume of excuses packed into an essay-long spiel.

I commend you.

You've packed them all into one tidy group of words.

You just forgot the one where the dog ate Dubas/Shanahan/Keefe's homework...

That's not what he said at all. Is there where we should compliment you on your spinning abilities?

 

[Dekes For Days]

We were 19th/32 in GA/Game and 9th/32 in shots/game, 8th/32 in PK%

The leafs gave up more goals in the season then literally every team in the playoffs besides minny who they tied

Yes, goaltending (which is different than defense) dragged down our goals against quite significantly. Which shouldn't exactly come as a shock to anybody that watched this season (especially the first few months of 2022).

Analytics has mcdavid and drai as the two worst defensive players in the league late into the season

That's not even true. Draisaitl is at least not very good defensively (though not the worst defensive player in the league), but no idea where you got McDavid from.

and Mike Smith is ass yet we gave up more goals.

Smith has some horrible memorable moments, but overall he hasn't been that bad this year.

Maybe we should stop valuing metric's that reward us for circling around and drop passing

I'm not sure what metric you're looking at that you think does that, but they don't.

He hasn't sold prospects but he's definitely sold picks

All teams in our position utilize these types of assets, but we've actually used less than most. For the record, we've made 30 draft picks under Dubas. 4 drafts is naturally 28 picks. And our prospect pool is very healthy, especially for a competitive team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The saying is always you gotta be good to be lucky.
I don’t think the group is good enough to win the Cup.
Even if they beat TB, I don’t think they can sweep the Panthers like TB did.
AM and MM and even JT showed up this series but they didn’t dominate the series. AM did in Game one and I would say JT had many moments in Game 5-7. But again, they didn’t do it in the whole series. Look at McDavid, Mack and Makar. Makar had 9 pts in 4 games, I think that’s more points than any Leafs in a 7 games series.
I could careless if they finished top 5 in the regular season standings, bc it means nothing if they can’t win the Cup. This also applies to every team in the NHL.

They boys played better this playoffs but they are still quite far from TB. But that also applies to every team in the League too.


1. Cursed, don’t believe it.
2. Mentally weak, I agree with that. But I think it is more guys from the top telling that, it is okay, we got respect at the handshake line.
3. They might have used all their luck with the 6 V 5 in Game 4 against BJs.

The core guys all had very good playoffs. The fact that you can point to some McDavid and a few other guys and say but look, these guys had more points doesn't change that fact.

I mostly agree with regular season vs playoffs but it doesn't quite mean nothing. In terms of goals/accomplishments I'd mostly agree but in terms of assessing how we're set up for the future, it's far from nothing. If it was nothing then you'd have MTL as one the top cup favourites going into last season which would be ridiculous.

I don't agree that they're "quite far" from TB. They finished ahead of them over the 82 game regular season and while I might agree that that means nothing had they got destroyed by TB in the playoffs, they played them like equals over those 7 games. I'd say they were pretty close to TB this season, hard to say about next year until we see the roster (and especially who's in net for us) but this year, this was a very good team.

Mentally weak - again, their play this season suggests otherwise. Last summer I would have been more likely to think you're onto something though I'd have trouble saying which guys specifically are the problem, as we've seen so many players over the years go to other teams and have a ton of success. But if you'd like to say which players are keepers, the ones that "we can win with" and which are the losers who we need to move because they're mentally weak and therefore they'll never have success in the playoffs, I'd be interested in hearing what you think.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Leafs are 0-10 in elimination games across multiple series. Why is that?

I'm not sure how you got 0-10. Which games exactly are you looking at?

Mediocre blueline and mediocre goaltending adds up to elite defense?

Elite defense equals elite defense. Goaltending is goaltending, not defense.

He believes in whatever stat makes Dubas look the best.

I see you're back to lying about me because you don't have an actual answer again.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Watching the playoffs I have a hard time trying to grasp how this team hasn’t even managed to fluke out 1 series win in 6 tries.
People would take a wet dump in their pants if we were getting the kind of goaltending Edmonton is. And they are in the 3rd round.

All the cast offs, Bozak,Kadri,Barrie,Ceci immediately get further than we have.

The Rangers were in the finals (2014) the year we started the rebuild and hit the skids hard. Already back in the 3rd round.

This team is like putting Ketchup in orange juice and hot sauce on top. All good things by themselves, together it just doesn’t get it done.

Now on lucky number 7 try, I laugh at all the can’t blow it up posts. Another 1st round exit next year and this thing blew itself.

We will see for sure.

Right!? Boggles the mind.
But we have a narrow-minded GM who praises regardless, a President who supports him, a coach who is ok with a split, and respected in the handshake line - and who has been outcoached 3 years in a row. There is no urgency here. There is no failure will not be tolerated mindset. It's accepted, but now they've run out of excuses - learning how to win, killer instinct etc etc

 

[ToneDog]

2013 tied 3-3 lost game 7
2018 tied 3-3 lost game 7
2019 up 3-2 lost games 6 and 7
2020 tied 2-2 lost game 5
2021 up 3-1 lost games 5,6 and 7
2022 up 3-2 lost games 6 an 7

 

[ToneDog]

Right!? Boggles the mind.
But we have a narrow-minded GM who praises regardless, a President who supports him, a coach who is ok with a split, and respected in the handshake line - and who has been outcoached 3 years in a row. There is no urgency here. There is no failure will not be tolerated mindset. It's accepted, but now they've run out of excuses - learning how to win, killer instinct etc etc

Does it? How long have some fans been saying they need to add heavier players, need to be tougher to play against, need heavier dmen ? Dubas stuck to his vision for his first two years and then started to adapt and poorly at that. Now there is talk that he needs to fix the bottom 6, get a heavy winger for the top 6, and find 2 goalies. All this while emptying the cupboard of picks and drafting small skilled players until Knies. What boggles the mind is how they still have jobs.

 

[ACC1224]

2013 tied 3-3 lost game 7
2018 tied 3-3 lost game 7
2019 up 3-2 lost games 6 and 7
2020 tied 2-2 lost game 5
2021 up 3-1 lost games 5,6 and 7
2022 up 3-2 lost games 6 an 7

Incredible. 0-10 in elimination games. That’s some serious bad luck.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Does it? How long have some fans been saying they need to add heavier players, need to be tougher to play against, need heavier dmen ? Dubas stuck to his vision for his first two years and then started to adapt and poorly at that. Now there is talk that he needs to fix the bottom 6, get a heavy winger for the top 6, and find 2 goalies. All this while emptying the cupboard of picks and drafting small skilled players until Knies. What boggles the mind is how they still have jobs.

Because failure is acceptable in Leaf land. Even players have said they're too easy to play against. We have all 3 guys learning on the job and wasting away the years

2013 tied 3-3 lost game 7
2018 tied 3-3 lost game 7
2019 up 3-2 lost games 6 and 7
2020 tied 2-2 lost game 5
2021 up 3-1 lost games 5,6 and 7
2022 up 3-2 lost games 6 an 7

Ok, ok but you forgot expected wins

 

[Gary Nylund]

Does it? How long have some fans been saying they need to add heavier players, need to be tougher to play against, need heavier dmen ? Dubas stuck to his vision for his first two years and then started to adapt and poorly at that. Now there is talk that he needs to fix the bottom 6, get a heavy winger for the top 6, and find 2 goalies. All this while emptying the cupboard of picks and drafting small skilled players until Knies. What boggles the mind is how they still have jobs.

Where does this BS come from?

His first big trade, which BTW was made during his first year as GM was for a "tougher to play against" Jake Muzzin.

It's amazing that these ridiculous narratives appear out of nowhere, with no basis in fact and people just keep mindlessly parroting them.

 

[ShaneFalco]

His first big trade, which BTW was made during his first year as GM was for a "tougher to play against" Jake Muzzin

And guess who kept saying they needed to be tougher to play against - Jake Muzzin
And you can add "toughness" but if your core isn't willing to go to war it won't matter all that much

 

[Gary Nylund]

And guess who kept saying they needed to be tougher to play against - Jake Muzzin
And you can add "toughness" but if your core isn't willing to go to war it won't matter all that much

Thanks for butting in and making yet another sarcastic comment that doesn't address the post you're quoting.

 

[BlackandOrange]

I watched the last two Leafs game 7 losses (friends are fans of the TML), what jumped out at me was that Keefe kept double shifting his top guys when they were ice cold, he had no pulse on the team.

There has definitely been some eggs laid in terms of finishing as well over the years in the playoffs for them as well. Most of their playoff games they dictated and controlled the pace of the game.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Thanks for butting in and making yet another sarcastic comment that doesn't address the post you're quoting.

Give it a rest Gary. You're sounding like an old man yelling at the clouds

 

[ACC1224]

And guess who kept saying they needed to be tougher to play against - Jake Muzzin
And you can add "toughness" but if your core isn't willing to go to war it won't matter all that much

That's certainly been one of their bigger failings at team building.
They looked a bit better this playoff but more is still needed.

 

[Trapper]

Honestly to not fluke out 1 win in 10 elimination games tells me that this team is one of three things 1. cursed 2. cripplingly mentally weak 3. Has the absolute worst luck ever.

I'm leaning to the second option, but won't rule out the first.

When I close my eyes and think of this team it’s the vision of constant head hanging in defeat.

Did you watch the Canada vs. Sweden comeback game? Nylander with the same exact look.

My worry is it becomes part of the fire mentality. Playing to avoid losing rather than taking control to win. It’s for this reason I say their needs to be a new core member brought in here. Or change on some level, be it coach to GM and then core examination to some degree.

 

[Dekes For Days]

2013 tied 3-3 lost game 7

Ah, I didn't realize we were including 2013, even though it has absolutely nothing to do with anything.

And to be clear, we're talking about specifically the games where we can eliminate the other team. The 2 elimination games we won in 2013, the 2 elimination games we won in 2018, and the elimination game we won in 2020 aren't included for some reason.

But if those are the games we're looking at, there are varying reasons we've lost those games over the decade, but there is certainly one consistent disparity that's pretty glaring. Within those 10 games, our opponents have received 0.933 goaltending, while the Leafs have received 0.888 goaltending.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Give it a rest Gary. You're sounding like an old man yelling at the clouds

It's been a while since you've posted something on topic and with substance. What the hell happened to you?

 

[ToneDog]

Ah, I didn't realize we were including 2013, even though it has absolutely nothing to do with anything.

And to be clear, we're talking about specifically the games where we can eliminate the other team. The 2 elimination games we won in 2013, the 2 elimination games we won in 2018, and the elimination game we won in 2020 aren't included for some reason.

But if those are the games we're looking at, there are varying reasons we've lost those games over the decade, but there is certainly one consistent disparity that's pretty glaring. Within those 10 games, our opponents have received 0.933 goaltending, while the Leafs have received 0.888 goaltending.

The 10 games I listed are winner takes the series. Leafs have won games facing elimination. Record in games played with a series lead is also not so good.

 

[Dreakmur]

The leafs gave up more goals in the season then literally every team in the playoffs besides minny who they tied

That includes Edmonton who gives no f***s about D and have ass goalies

We're an atrocious defensive hockey team especially in our own zone

The leafs have decent defensive metrics because there’s no real way to measure defensive play.

Toronto is a good team, and we have the puck a lot. We have the puck a lot, which means the other team has is less. The other team has it less, so they get few chances. According to stats, that makes us good defensively.

What matters is what we do when we don’t have the puck, regardless of how often that is, and that’s really tough to measure. If somebody put together a defensive measure that compared certain chances against vs opponent’s offensive possession time, that would be a much more accurate measurement of actual defensive play.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The leafs have decent defensive metrics because there’s no real way to measure defensive play.

Toronto is a good team, and we have the puck a lot. We have the puck a lot, which means the other team has is less. The other team has it less, so they get few chances. According to stats, that makes us good defensively.

What matters is what we do when we don’t have the puck, regardless of how often that is, and that’s really tough to measure. If somebody put together a defensive measure that compared certain chances against vs opponent’s offensive possession time, that would be a much more accurate measurement of actual defensive play.

Almost everything in hockey is tough to measure. Not saying stats are useless but you really have to watch the games.