Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[Dreakmur]

Leafs are 0-10 in elimination games across multiple series. Why is that?

Bad luck disguised as an analytic.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

A real discussion isn't consulting a pie chart and pretending you watch game tape.

When my team loses, I try to understand why, so I can make adjustments and improve next year. Your priority seems to be defending Dubas' every move, and team success is an aftertought.



Doesn't take a psychic to know you're always going to side with Dubas.



Analysing context and then forming an opinion is important. Searching for fake context to support an already held idea that Dubas was right isn't valuable at all.



I didn't claim that all losses are a result of those things, but these losses are.



They're all 100% true and obvious to anyone who's ever laced up a pair of skates.



No game data measures traffic. Game tape shows it.



It's just one of the many excuses you've used over the years. I'm actually kind of excited to see what you'll use next year.



Every stat is flawed, but especially ones that don't even know how to measure what they're supposedly representing.



What's the lie?

Don't waste your time .. even Dubie himself has stated on record that in current world of hockey analytics 30% is PURE LUCK and he has also stated in 20 years we won't even be using todays advanced stats .. at least he is smart enough to realize this as he has progressed in hockey (remember he is still a kid) .. my issue is Leafs should not be teaching a kid and its key executive how to run a hockey team .. but truth is that is Larry's fault and he believes in these guys too .. nothing is gonna change for next 3 years unfortunately .. I thought they would but they re upped Dubie last summer with no fanfare

 

[Dekes For Days]

A real discussion isn't consulting a pie chart and pretending you watch game tape.

I've watched every single second of our season, and shockingly, it doesn't prevent you from utilizing valuable statistics, data, and information. Doing so actually makes you better at understanding what you're seeing, and catching some of your natural biases.

When my team loses, I try to understand why, so I can make adjustments and improve next year.

Ideally that is what you would do, like I do, but unfortunately, you've just arbitrarily claimed incorrect reasoning and concluded that you don't need to support it.

Your priority seems to be defending Dubas' every move, and team success is an aftertought.

Team success is the #1 priority, obviously. I don't care about Dubas. I only care about the positive impact he has on the team. The ones that seem to see team success as an afterthought are the ones who want to fire Dubas. It doesn't matter if it hurts the team, and we don't need an actual reason - we lost, so we need a blood sacrifice to show how angry we are about losing.

Doesn't take a psychic to know you're always going to side with Dubas.

Not only is that untrue, and not only does playoff predictions have nothing to do with Dubas, Dubas wasn't even here 5 years ago either.

Analysing context and then forming an opinion is important.

Glad we agree. Maybe now you can stop dismissing legitimate context as "excuses" and excluding it.

I didn't claim that all losses are a result of those things, but these losses are.

So other losses don't mean that, but these losses do mean that, and it means that because you said so, and you don't have to actually support that with anything. Hmm. Convincing.

They're all 100% true and obvious to anyone who's ever laced up a pair of skates.

Not that it has much relevance, but I've laced up skates countless times, and it's very obvious that it's not true.

No game data measures traffic. Game tape shows it.

Game tape did indeed show that we got traffic.

Every stat is flawed

The stats aren't as flawed as you like to pretend, and the eye test is also flawed. Ideally, you improve both by utilizing the other.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Nice post.

Fire Dumbas, Shanahan and Keefe

Fire them? They will be with the team next year, and according to one poster, perhaps beyond if Dubas did in fact sign an extension. I suppose they could get fired but there doesn't appear to be any rush in doing so.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Columbus was #1 with a 2.33 xGA/60, Minnesota was #2 with a 2.38 xGA/60, and Boston was #3 with a 2.48 xGA/60.

Then I guess that perhaps Dubas should have thought a little more about building a strong defensive team rather than a strong offensive (in regular season) team.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Then I guess that perhaps Dubas should have thought a little more about building a strong defensive team rather than a strong offensive (in regular season) team.

Building a strong defensive team is exactly what Dubas has done. We've improved defensively every year under Dubas, and we were the 3rd best defensive team in the league this year.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Neither is Dubas seeing as how he keeps blocking Sandin's path towards any meaningful minutes with the team with free agent signings.

Wouldn't be surprised if he's traded for more immediate roster help since Dubas is basically in career-survival mode in present time.

I actually hope he is traded. The guy is way too slow and his offensive skill doesn't make up for his defensive shortcomings like being smallish and a horrible skater. We have Reilly for another 8yrs...one pure offense D is enough in my books. Lilly is at least more well rounded...better defensively and showing some offense lately. BTW...I never thought I would say that about Lilly...I thought he had bust written all over him.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Your ability to analyze game tapes has led you to think Toronto would win the last 5 playoff series, so I’m not sure why you think your analysis should mean very much.


Strange that you always need context for negative results from the leafs, but positive results are just unimpeachable.



I sure got caught by calling a mediocre team not good. How will I ever recover?



They had the same record as the 8th seed and lost the tie-breaker, which is why they were the 9th seed.



Losses don’t necessarily mean poor construction or poor coaching, but these particular losses did.



They’re soft. If you need a bar graph to demonstrate it, that’s your problem.

They’re too easy to play against. Same, no pie chart.

They avoid contact. Nope, no data matrix.

You’re just going to have to figure it out. I can’t watch for you.


They do fluctuate for reasons beyond luck… like playing a team that avoids the front of the net because it’s dangerous.



It gets brought up because you keep denying we’ve repeatedly lost to lesser teams.



What data shows traffic? What data shows obstruction of the the goalie’s vision?

That’s why expected goals is flawed. You can’t measure a scoring chance with nothing more than a scatter plot.



He takes any side of any argument to make Dubas look good. It’s too bad, because Dubas has done a pretty good job. The shills just make such ridiculous remarks that you can’t help but disagree and argue against the few mistakes made by Dubas.

Those are great points that I bolded. That seems to be the main issue. We think we are doing everything under the sun to uncover why we can't win...but it's not something you can see in a chart. According to the stats Mikyhev had an ok series by getting a couple of goals. Look deeper and you see they were empty netters and he made little noise besides that. The way our team looks at things they would assume he played well because the box car stats said X amount of points but they would be missing on the real play that he did during the TB series.

We don't screen goalies for whatever reason. Is it being afraid of the puck? is it being afraid of the cross checks? All I know is we make too easy to get goalied and we have had 6 years of this shit happening and nobody has a clue what the problem is. We don't take take slappers from the point because some nerd says they are hard to deflect...so instead we take weak wristers that a goalie can easily stop and smother versus a hard shot that bounces around in the crease. We don't screen...we don't slap shot...we play nice. If only the other teams would be more accommodating..we would be Kings!!

 

[hamzarocks]

Fire them? They will be with the team next year, and according to one poster, perhaps beyond if Dubas did in fact sign an extension. I suppose they could get fired but there doesn't appear to be any rush in doing so.

there will definitely be a rush depending on what happens next off-season if a 5th 1st round exit occurs.

Matthews asks out? Management are all likely removed and done at the NHL level (except for maybe Shanahan who can use his ties to get another role perhaps)
Win the division and lose to a wild card team in game 7 (or less somehow), then there will be more outrage

Management got fortunate, the leafs lost to Tampa the defending two-time champs as opposed to Boston/Flordia/NYR, etc.

They got an additional year as a result of the Bolts being a pending dynasty if they win another. A loss to Washington or NYR would have been a different story.

Need to avoid a 1st round loss next year if Dubas wants to continue as our GM. He won't get a chance to break David Poile's record for most consecutive 1st round losses in the salary cap era.

 

[Leaf Fans]

there will definitely be a rush depending on what happens next off-season if a 5th 1st round exit occurs.

Matthews asks out? Management are all likely removed and done at the NHL level (except for maybe Shanahan who can use his ties to get another role perhaps)
Win the division and lose to a wild card team in game 7 (or less somehow), then there will be more outrage

Management got fortunate, the leafs lost to Tampa the defending two-time champs as opposed to Boston/Flordia/NYR, etc.

They got an additional year as a result of the Bolts being a pending dynasty if they win another. A loss to Washington or NYR would have been a different story.

Need to avoid a 1st round loss next year if Dubas wants to continue as our GM. He won't get a chance to break David Poile's record for most consecutive 1st round losses in the salary cap era.

That is one set of possibilities.

 

[hamzarocks]

Building a strong defensive team is exactly what Dubas has done. We've improved defensively every year under Dubas, and we were the 3rd best defensive team in the league this year.

We were 19th/32 in GA/Game and 9th/32 in shots/game, 8th/32 in PK%

I know you will say that GA is a stat that shows defense + goaltending, however even combining these two stats it's clear we were around the 7th-13th best defensive team in the league, not the 3rd.

Perhaps XGA we were 3rd per game and that is why you think we were the 3rd best defensive team in the league, but its tough to take that claim seriously when we allowed so many goals over the course of the reg season. Even faulting our goaltending which wasn't great, won't elevate it from 19th to 3rd. 7th-13th range is more accurate

 

[Dreakmur]

Building a strong defensive team is exactly what Dubas has done. We've improved defensively every year under Dubas, and we were the 3rd best defensive team in the league this year.

Mediocre blueline and mediocre goaltending adds up to elite defense?

I've watched every single second of our season, and shockingly, it doesn't prevent you from utilizing valuable statistics, data, and information. Doing so actually makes you better at understanding what you're seeing, and catching some of your natural biases.

Ideally that is what you would do, like I do, but unfortunately, you've just arbitrarily claimed incorrect reasoning and concluded that you don't need to support it.

Team success is the #1 priority, obviously. I don't care about Dubas. I only care about the positive impact he has on the team. The ones that seem to see team success as an afterthought are the ones who want to fire Dubas. It doesn't matter if it hurts the team, and we don't need an actual reason - we lost, so we need a blood sacrifice to show how angry we are about losing.

Not only is that untrue, and not only does playoff predictions have nothing to do with Dubas, Dubas wasn't even here 5 years ago either.

Glad we agree. Maybe now you can stop dismissing legitimate context as "excuses" and excluding it.

So other losses don't mean that, but these losses do mean that, and it means that because you said so, and you don't have to actually support that with anything. Hmm. Convincing.

Not that it has much relevance, but I've laced up skates countless times, and it's very obvious that it's not true.

Game tape did indeed show that we got traffic.

The stats aren't as flawed as you like to pretend, and the eye test is also flawed. Ideally, you improve both by utilizing the other.

At this point, I think I’d have better luck explaining string theory to a goldfish. This has to be some kind of shtick.

We were 19th/32 in GA/Game and 9th/32 in shots/game, 8th/32 in PK%

I know you will say that GA is a stat that shows defense + goaltending, however even combining these two stats it's clear we were around the 7th-13th best defensive team in the league, not the 3rd.

Perhaps XGA we were 3rd per game and that is why you think we were the 3rd best defensive team in the league, but its tough to take that claim seriously when we allowed so many goals over the course of the reg season. Even faulting our goaltending which wasn't great, won't elevate it from 19th to 3rd. 7th-13th range is more accurate

He believes in whatever stat makes Dubas look the best.

 

[Racer88]

Leafs are 0-10 in elimination games across multiple series. Why is that?

Good question…..I’m guessing the answer is they are not as good as the competition in those 10 games and sadly they are not as good as a few posters here think they are.

Building a strong defensive team is exactly what Dubas has done. We've improved defensively every year under Dubas, and we were the 3rd best defensive team in the league this year.

And we still lose yet again.

 

[Gabriel426]

Just win. Honestly, I am getting sick and tired of they played well, they got out goalied, the refs, COVID....
If Dubas is really as good as some claim, the team should have won a playoff round by now.
If Keefe is really a good coach, he would have coached the boys to win a round by now.
If Player X is really an elite player, then Player X would have showed up in any of the 10 elimination games by now and steal the game thus the series.

There should be no more excuse for the boys and MGT regardless of what they did or do in the regular season.
They have literally set such a low bar that I am 100% sure, if they win a round and lose in the 2nd round, some here might even think that's amazing. GOAL IS TO WIN THE CUP AND NOT A ROUND.

Having said all that, I do seen improvements but they need to do more, a lot more in order to WIN THE CUP.

 

[rocketman588]

Kucherov was red hot directly before the Leaf series, and was red-hot directly after the Leaf series. Leafs are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and the Matthews/Marner line is one of the best lines in the league, that players often struggle against. Kucherov is a veteran back-to-back Cup champ, and players, especially ones like that, don't just randomly decide not to try for no reason in a closely-contested playoff battle - which is what was being suggested. The most logical conclusion is that Kucherov's performance was the result of the Leafs.

The Leafs had a significant sample of play showing them to be a high generating and well-executing offensive team. They still generated relatively well within the series, but struggled to get them past Korpisalo. Directly after our series, the same thing continued for a while against a different team - the eventual Stanley Cup champions; also a high generating and well-executing offensive team - leading to the goalie setting the NHL playoff save record against somebody other than us. The most logical conclusion is what we see often - a goalie on a hot streak, instead of two well-executing rosters suddenly executing badly around the same time against the same goalie despite generating well.

The leafs gave up more goals in the season then literally every team in the playoffs besides minny who they tied

That includes Edmonton who gives no f***s about D and have ass goalies

We're an atrocious defensive hockey team especially in our own zone

 

[rocketman588]

Building a strong defensive team is exactly what Dubas has done. We've improved defensively every year under Dubas, and we were the 3rd best defensive team in the league this year.

We gave up the most goals of any team in the playoffs within the season. This includes teams that don't try to play D

Analytics has mcdavid and drai as the two worst defensive players in the league late into the season and Mike Smith is ass yet we gave up more goals.

Maybe we should stop valuing metric's that reward us for circling around and drop passing to nowhere and kerfoot wouldn't have lost game 6 for us

I actually hope he is traded. The guy is way too slow and his offensive skill doesn't make up for his defensive shortcomings like being smallish and a horrible skater. We have Reilly for another 8yrs...one pure offense D is enough in my books. Lilly is at least more well rounded...better defensively and showing some offense lately. BTW...I never thought I would say that about Lilly...I thought he had bust written all over him.

Like all of his picks they are over hyped and have produced nothing.

Robertson is the same. We're going into year 5 and slot about to have 0 dubas picks on the roster

 

[Menzinger]

This seems to be a popular narrative these days but IMO it's nonsense. People were saying the same thing thing a few months ago - Dubas would trade a ton of futures in a desperate attempt to keep his job. Instead, he kept our top picks and prospects and nevertheless managed to swing the very excellent trade that brought Giordano (and Blackwell) into the fold.

I know it's all the rage to hate on Dubas these days but a lot of people should be giving Dubas props and eating crow on this one.


I would also say that our high priced snipers were below par when it came to finishing our chances. Too many shots in the goalies chest etc. and of course Tavares missing the empty net was the best example of a high danger chance that didn't result in a goal but had nothing to do with how their goalie played.

Of course I have no spreadsheets to back this up, it's JMHO from watching every minute of every game so take it FWIW.

Yep. I mean Has Dubas' traded a single meaningful prospect outside of the Muzzin trade, which landed a core player?

So far he's refused to trade Sandin, Lily, Knies, Robertson, or any of the orgs other top 10 prospects.....

If all the legit things to criticize Dubas' for, selling prospects or young players isn't one of them

 

[rocketman588]

Yep. I mean Has Dubas' traded a single meaningful prospect outside of the Muzzin trade, which landed a core player?

So far he's refused to trade Sandin, Lily, Knies, Robertson, or any of the orgs other top 10 prospects.....

If all the legit things to criticize Dubas' for, selling prospects or young players isn't one of them

He hasn't sold prospects but he's definitely sold picks

 

[Menzinger]

He hasn't sold prospects but he's definitely sold picks

He has. But I don't see that as evidence he will look to move out a guy like Sandin.

The front offices trade strategy is clearly to avoid moving prospects because they're closer to potentially contribute.

Theyve arguably moved too many picks but not prospects.

 

[rocketman588]

He has. But I don't see that as evidence he will look to move out a guy like Sandin.

The front offices trade strategy is clearly to avoid moving prospects because they're closer to potentially contribute.

Theyve arguably moved too many picks but not prospects.

I agree unfortunately none of them have worked out as of yet

If you can sell Rasmus and roberston high and get a useable starter while also getting rid of mrazeks deal for example you do that all day

 

[AllDay28]

Can all the people who rag on analytics and claim their eyes and analysis are so good, post their betting account totals… gotta be making a killing betting hockey if you’re so good at it. I mean it’s not like massive betting syndicates use analytics or anything…

Thanks!

 

[Trapper]

Watching the playoffs I have a hard time trying to grasp how this team hasn’t even managed to fluke out 1 series win in 6 tries.
People would take a wet dump in their pants if we were getting the kind of goaltending Edmonton is. And they are in the 3rd round.

All the cast offs, Bozak,Kadri,Barrie,Ceci immediately get further than we have.

The Rangers were in the finals (2014) the year we started the rebuild and hit the skids hard. Already back in the 3rd round.

This team is like putting Ketchup in orange juice and hot sauce on top. All good things by themselves, together it just doesn’t get it done.

Now on lucky number 7 try, I laugh at all the can’t blow it up posts. Another 1st round exit next year and this thing blew itself.

We will see for sure.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Just win. Honestly, I am getting sick and tired of they played well, they got out goalied, the refs, COVID....
If Dubas is really as good as some claim, the team should have won a playoff round by now.
If Keefe is really a good coach, he would have coached the boys to win a round by now.
If Player X is really an elite player, then Player X would have showed up in any of the 10 elimination games by now and steal the game thus the series.

There should be no more excuse for the boys and MGT regardless of what they did or do in the regular season.
They have literally set such a low bar that I am 100% sure, if they win a round and lose in the 2nd round, some here might even think that's amazing. GOAL IS TO WIN THE CUP AND NOT A ROUND.

Having said all that, I do seen improvements but they need to do more, a lot more in order to WIN THE CUP.

You bring up an interesting point in decision science. Prior vs. posterior belief.

Simple problem: You have a coin. Prior belief is that it is a fair coin and therefore you should have a 50/50 chance of winning independent of any prior result.

Then when you start flipping the coin, you get heads 5 times in a row. Based on the prior belief, the chances of that happening are (1/2)^5, or 3.125%. It is not zero, obviously, but then you really start questioning whether it is actually a fair coin. Maybe you start believing it is actually 60/40 towards heads, simply because it is very unlikely for 5 straight heads to occur with a fair coin. However if you flip the coin 1000 times, and the coin is, in fact, fair, you will see that there will almost certainly be some instance of 5 straight heads (or tails) over those 1000 trials but in the end, it will be approximately equal between heads and tails.

Why does any of this matter in hockey? Right now, it is statistically unlikely that the Leafs should have lost this often based on expectation. Which bares the question: Is our team just not good as expected or are they just really unlucky? The answer right now could be either. Maybe we are just in that stage of 5 straight heads on a fair coin, or maybe the coin is not as fair as we thought.

In reality, we were not as good as expected at the beginning. We had Lou and Babcock, two legends, in charge and a group of young stud talent and we hoped they would take us to the promise land right away like they had done in the past. In reality, there was a lot of pain, those two probably didn't do as good of a job as we would have expected/hoped, and especially in the case of Babcock, there was little hope/trust that things would get better with time or more iterations. Then with Dubas/Keefe, there has been progression in terms of expectations because this team has shown what it is capable of doing. Matthews is a 60 goal scorer. Marner has blossomed into a triple-digit player. We are significantly better defensively. We have a more well-rounded team that has challenged or looked better than many teams that, in terms of results, have been better than us. So those in charge and those making decisions are leaning towards a stretch of bad luck, or just one of those mental hurdles that needs to be climbed and they are confident will be climbed, before the flood gates open and this team can meet or exceed the lofty expectations that they, and Leafs fans, have for them. And that for now, the fact that this is a team that still is put into situations where we should be succeeding, and should be performing well, is about the best they can hope for. It is time for those who truly make the difference, which are the players (and especially the core players who have been given a ton of trust), to finally step up and exceed analytical expectation (although meeting analytical expectation through execution would be a good start and would get us far on its own) to win a Cup.

 

[Bomber0104]

We were 19th/32 in GA/Game and 9th/32 in shots/game, 8th/32 in PK%

I know you will say that GA is a stat that shows defense + goaltending, however even combining these two stats it's clear we were around the 7th-13th best defensive team in the league, not the 3rd.

Perhaps XGA we were 3rd per game and that is why you think we were the 3rd best defensive team in the league, but its tough to take that claim seriously when we allowed so many goals over the course of the reg season. Even faulting our goaltending which wasn't great, won't elevate it from 19th to 3rd. 7th-13th range is more accurate

Expected goals is almost entirely a measure of how-close-puck-is-shot-from-net.

That's certainly one metric that may influence the quality of a shot or scoring chance, but how complete is that really?

Has anyone bothered to consider there's potentially more than just that or do we just accept this as the written incontestable truth?

Not me.

From years of playing and watching this wonderful game, it's very clear that there's at least 4 or 5 more key metrics that are equally as important as where a shot is shot-from on the ice.

Those 4 or 5 key data points unfortunately can't be data-scraped from the NHL.coms datahouse because they require eyes and in-depth sequence analysis that a 2D shot ticker just simply can't account for.

So what people like to do is pretend that these 4 or 5 key metrics don't actually exist or diminish their value to measuring scoring chances..

1) Shot accuracy
2) Shot speed
3) Goaltender-shot visibility
4) Goaltender positioning
5) Defensive net-front presence

All of the above entirely unmeasured and unaccounted for in "Expected Goals" stats. By the way, what a grandiose/diva title to call such a simple/flawed stat that does a terrible job of expecting virtually anything.

All of those metrics are equally, if not, more important than shot location.

But we'll pretend those don't exist of course because the blogger stats haven't found a way to scrape that data for free on the NHL.com's website yet, or god forbid watch games to ascertain that information themselves.

 

[Bomber0104]

You bring up an interesting point in decision science. Prior vs. posterior belief.

Simple problem: You have a coin. Prior belief is that it is a fair coin and therefore you should have a 50/50 chance of winning independent of any prior result.

Then when you start flipping the coin, you get heads 5 times in a row. Based on the prior belief, the chances of that happening are (1/2)^5, or 3.125%. It is not zero, obviously, but then you really start questioning whether it is actually a fair coin. Maybe you start believing it is actually 60/40 towards heads, simply because it is very unlikely for 5 straight heads to occur with a fair coin. However if you flip the coin 1000 times, and the coin is, in fact, fair, you will see that there will almost certainly be some instance of 5 straight heads (or tails) over those 1000 trials but in the end, it will be approximately equal between heads and tails.

Why does any of this matter in hockey? Right now, it is statistically unlikely that the Leafs should have lost this often based on expectation. Which bares the question: Is our team just not good as expected or are they just really unlucky? The answer right now could be either. Maybe we are just in that stage of 5 straight heads on a fair coin, or maybe the coin is not as fair as we thought.

In reality, we were not as good as expected at the beginning. We had Lou and Babcock, two legends, in charge and a group of young stud talent and we hoped they would take us to the promise land right away like they had done in the past. In reality, there was a lot of pain, those two probably didn't do as good of a job as we would have expected/hoped, and especially in the case of Babcock, there was little hope/trust that things would get better with time or more iterations. Then with Dubas/Keefe, there has been progression in terms of expectations because this team has shown what it is capable of doing. Matthews is a 60 goal scorer. Marner has blossomed into a triple-digit player. We are significantly better defensively. We have a more well-rounded team that has challenged or looked better than many teams that, in terms of results, have been better than us. So those in charge and those making decisions are leaning towards a stretch of bad luck, or just one of those mental hurdles that needs to be climbed and they are confident will be climbed, before the flood gates open and this team can meet or exceed the lofty expectations that they, and Leafs fans, have for them. And that for now, the fact that this is a team that still is put into situations where we should be succeeding, and should be performing well, is about the best they can hope for. It is time for those who truly make the difference, which are the players (and especially the core players who have been given a ton of trust), to finally step up and exceed analytical expectation (although meeting analytical expectation through execution would be a good start and would get us far on its own) to win a Cup.

Excuses/60 words is off the charts in this post.

Losing 6 times in a row in the opening/qualifying round and somehow spinning this into a positive not just for the team but the management group responsible for it is definitely a brave task that few could possibly attempt without the sheer volume of excuses packed into an essay-long spiel.

I commend you.

You've packed them all into one tidy group of words.

You just forgot the one where the dog ate Dubas/Shanahan/Keefe's homework...