Prospect Info: Shakir Mukhamadullin (#20 pick - 2020 draft)

[My3Sons]

That sucks that he cannot sign a one year KHL deal. Kind of odd that it is a rule that it has to be 2.
In an ideal world , Id like him to come to NA as soon as this KHL season is over.
Get him used to NA and maybe get some Comet games in this year and start fresh in the AHL next year.
Two more years in the KHL seems like maybe too long . Hopefully there is an out clause so he can leave after next year.

But there is the rub, he apparently won't sign if he has to play in the AHL.

 

[Blackjack]

That sucks that he cannot sign a one year KHL deal. Kind of odd that it is a rule that it has to be 2.
In an ideal world , Id like him to come to NA as soon as this KHL season is over.
Get him used to NA and maybe get some Comet games in this year and start fresh in the AHL next year.
Two more years in the KHL seems like maybe too long . Hopefully there is an out clause so he can leave after next year.

Russian players (meaning drafted from the KHL,VHL, MHL rather than Russian nationals playing in the CHL) generally don't want to play in the AHL. I would rather Muk play two more years in Russia than get into a fight with the team like Kravtsov. I'm guessing that Fitz tried to sign him to an ELC but wouldn't guarantee him an NHL spot (smart), and Muk won't leave without that guarantee. I'm glad that Fitz was upfront with him, unlike the Rangers that misled Kravtsov into thinking he would be on the roster, and poisoned their relationship with him.

He's playing against the the best players outside the NHL. I don't care about ice size, if he's not ready in 2024, he's not NHL caliber and we just send him back.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

khl wants to keep their young talent there as long as possible i understand them having that rule

I mean at the same time it can be a deterrent and they can lose guys earlier because of the rule. If someone is looking at playing 1 more year but they definitely don’t want to stay for another two years they could leave earlier. A player basically has to decide between staying 2 more years or leaving right away. They may choose right away if they feel they have a chance to play in the NHL right away or soon and they don’t want to wait two more years.

 

[jkrdevil]

So that Coleman trade isn’t looking great.

 

[Devils731]

So that Coleman trade isn’t looking great.

Shak is having a good season.

The Devils look much better with what they got than with having nothing at all.

 

[Devs3cups]

So that Coleman trade isn’t looking great.

Why? Mukhamadulin is looking good in the KHL and will most likely be the #1 d-man for Russia at this year's WJC. He's a very solid prospect. He'll get here at 21-22 years old most likely. Are you afraid he won't sign?

 

[Guttersniped]

Apparently his extension might have to be at least two years. Maybe an NHL opt out in the second year or maybe he just plans on spending two more seasons in the KHL. Also sounds like he’s not interested in playing in the AHL.

@Guadana or anybody with more firsthand knowledge might know more but KHL teams are pretty keen on keeping juniors players (U21) because they don’t count against the salary cap.

The league moved from a soft cap, where richer teams could overspend, to a hard cap in 2020-21 and the only (obvious) room rich clubs have to maneuver under the new hard cap is that certain bonuses don’t count and any money spent on players under 21 also doesn’t count.

That’s why the very wealthy SKA St Petersburg went around trading for as many prospects as they could, because they’re “free”, in terms of the salary cap. That’s why they got Zhakhar Bardakov, even though they didn’t need him at all and had no place to play him (he got 2 KHL games in Sept & he’s finally getting some VHL games) because their system is so jam packed with young forwards.

That’s also why they signed a 16 year generational talent, Matvei Michkov, to a 5 year deal that ends in 2025-26.

Junior players are also pretty critical because KHL games has a “Designated Juniors” rule. Teams have the typical 20 players, 18 skaters & 2 goalies, and they get to add up to 2 juniors players (one up to 20 and one up to 19/ only one goalie/ has to be Russian on Russian KHL teams).

Also if a player is used in up to 30% of a team’s KHL games (I don’t know how the math exactly works) and then that junior player leaves to play for the National team, then the team can use his Designated Juniors spot on a sub of any age while he’s away.
(I put a link to article that I’m paraphrasing below.)

For a while, Shak’s team was using the extra two junior players to have 4 defensive pairs (in part due to having a lot of older defensemen), now they switched to a more common extra defenseman/spare foreword.

That spare forward role is how Gritsyuk started out and all our defensemen were the extra defensemen at one point.

I’m all for leaving wingers and goalies (not that we ever draft those from Russia, but hypothetically) in the KHL, they just develop better there. (The Flyers yanked goalie Kirill Ustimenko out of the MHL at age 19 to play in the AHL and that’s just weird to me.)

With defensemen, Russia produces great defensive defensemen, but the record with offensive defensemen and PMD is a bit thinner. That said, it’s not like they’re going to ruin him or something, he’ll be fine (Ottawa’s Zub is great.). He’s very young, if he’s not comfortable coming over, then pushing for it isn’t a good idea. He may want to get his game to higher level before coming over.

He’s 19, it was always going to take more time. I know fans have no patience but you have to be patient. It’s foolish to say we can’t wait.

Edit: Shakir was born Jan 10th 2002 and they do age by birth year (going by this article) so he’ll be 20 in 2022-23 season, and therefore still a junior player. (That’s not his only value of course and he’ll be 21 in the 2nd year of his deal, but having a top four defenseman not count against a hard salary cap is a lot of added value in the first year.)

Designated Juniors: The KHL’s Young Player Rules

 

[TheUnseenHand]

If the AHL is not an option id keep him in the KHL for two more years. My viewings of him this season have been limited, but he doesn't look close to ready as a D man at the NHL level.

Still wish we would have drafted Lapierre...

 

[Guttersniped]

If the AHL is not an option id keep him in the KHL for two more years. My viewings of him this season have been limited, but he doesn't look close to ready as a D man at the NHL level.

Still wish we would have drafted Lapierre...

He’s a talented kid but I don’t know if a pass happy center is what this team needs.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

He’s a talented kid but I don’t know if a pass happy center is what this team needs.

I am VERY pro BPA when it comes to the draft. I like Muk, but do not feel like he was the BPA at that spot. So far that seems to be proving true, but there is a very long way to go in the careers of both players.

 

[Hisch13r]

I am VERY pro BPA when it comes to the draft. I like Muk, but do not feel like he was the BPA at that spot. So far that seems to be proving true, but there is a very long way to go in the careers of both players.

I still think we should've been the ones that traded down from 20 to 24 and 80 rather than the Flames getting to move down from 22 to 24 and 80. I liked Wallinder more at the time and I still do. I would've rather gotten him at 24 and then like maybe Jurmo at 80

 

[StevenToddIves]

I still think we should've been the ones that traded down from 20 to 24 and 80 rather than the Flames getting to move down from 22 to 24 and 80. I liked Wallinder more at the time and I still do. I would've rather gotten him at 24 and then like maybe Jurmo at 80

I agree with the trade-down, but in a 2020 re-draft Mukhamadullin would certainly be a higher pick than Wallinder. Though they have similar size and Wallinder is the superior skater, Mukhamadullin literally wipes Wallinder out in any other category -- passing, shooting, defending, hockey IQ, compete level, you name it. While Mukhamadullin excelled in the KHL last year, Wallinder struggled a ton in the Swedish Allvenskan.

Though this year Wallinder has played quite well thus far in the SHL, he has still not played to the level of Mukhamadullin, playing in a more competitive KHL.

Jurmo is another prospect who, like Wallinder, has terrific assets in the cliche "big and fast" category, but is still fielding major questions about his hockey IQ and the rest of his surrounding game.

I'd say in a 2020 re-draft, Mukhamadullin would go in the 25-30 overall range, while Wallinder would be a likely pick in the mid-to-late-2nd round range. Jurmo would probably go around where he was taken in the 3rd round. I'd say three defensemen drafted after Mukhamadullin would have solid chances to be taken ahead of him in a re-draft -- Brock Faber, Justin Barron and Topi Niemela. But I don't think Wallinder would have much of an argument to go ahead of any of those prospects at this point.

Still, I agree with the trade-down scenario you advocated. Looking back at my notes, my highest ranked player at the #80 spot would have been Dmitri Rashevsky, who went undrafted until 2021 (Winnipeg).

 

[TBF1972]

I am VERY pro BPA when it comes to the draft. I like Muk, but do not feel like he was the BPA at that spot. So far that seems to be proving true, but there is a very long way to go in the careers of both players.

with lapierre talent wasn't in doubt. but he had several red flags because of his injury history.

obviously i wish him a long and successful nhl career. i considered and still consider the risk with him too big. the capitals were swinging for the fences.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I agree with the trade-down, but in a 2020 re-draft Mukhamadullin would certainly be a higher pick than Wallinder. Though they have similar size and Wallinder is the superior skater, Mukhamadullin literally wipes Wallinder out in any other category -- passing, shooting, defending, hockey IQ, compete level, you name it. While Mukhamadullin excelled in the KHL last year, Wallinder struggled a ton in the Swedish Allvenskan.

Though this year Wallinder has played quite well thus far in the SHL, he has still not played to the level of Mukhamadullin, playing in a more competitive KHL.

Jurmo is another prospect who, like Wallinder, has terrific assets in the cliche "big and fast" category, but is still fielding major questions about his hockey IQ and the rest of his surrounding game.

I'd say in a 2020 re-draft, Mukhamadullin would go in the 25-30 overall range, while Wallinder would be a likely pick in the mid-to-late-2nd round range. Jurmo would probably go around where he was taken in the 3rd round. I'd say three defensemen drafted after Mukhamadullin would have solid chances to be taken ahead of him in a re-draft -- Brock Faber, Justin Barron and Topi Niemela. But I don't think Wallinder would have much of an argument to go ahead of any of those prospects at this point.

Still, I agree with the trade-down scenario you advocated. Looking back at my notes, my highest ranked player at the #80 spot would have been Dmitri Rashevsky, who went undrafted until 2021 (Winnipeg).

I wanted Barron

 

[TheUnseenHand]

with lapierre talent wasn't in doubt. but he had several red flags because of his injury history.

obviously i wish him a long and successful nhl career. i considered and still consider the risk with him too big. the capitals were swinging for the fences.

I'd argue we were swinging even harder for the fences with Muk.

 

[TBF1972]

I'd argue we were swinging even harder for the fences with Muk.

why?

the team has scouted muk extensively. just because you and so called 'experts' didn't have him in their first round, says absolutely nothing.

it's kind of funny, that the condensed lists of scouting services are considered THE objective view of the prospect in a draft. no single scout can watch and evaluate all 300+ draft prospects. those lists are nothing as the subjective aggregation of the subjective observations and valuations of several scouts with different tastes and priorities.

muk's potential or ceiling is a matter of taste. lapierre's medical report makes him a risky pick.

 

[vorky]

@Guadana or anybody with more firsthand knowledge might know more but KHL teams are pretty keen on keeping juniors players (U21) because they don’t count against the salary cap.

The league moved from a soft cap, where richer teams could overspend, to a hard cap in 2020-21 and the only (obvious) room rich clubs have to maneuver under the new hard cap is that certain bonuses don’t count and any money spent on players under 21 also doesn’t count.

That’s why the very wealthy SKA St Petersburg went around trading for as many prospects as they could, because they’re “free”, in terms of salary cap. That’s why they got Zhakhar Bardakov, even though they didn’t need him at all and had no place to play him (he got 2 KHL games in Sept & he’s finally getting some VHL games) because their system is so jam packed with young forwards.

That’s also why they signed a 16 year generational talent, Matvei Michkov, to a 5 year deal that ends in 2025-26.

Junior players are also pretty critical because KHL games has a “Designated Juniors” rule. Teams have the typical 20 players, 18 skaters & 2 goalies, and they get to add up to 2 juniors players (one up to 20 and one up to 19/ only one goalie/ has to be Russian on Russian KHL teams).

Also if a player is used in up to 30% of a team’s KHL games (I don’t know how the math exactly works) and then that junior player leaves to play for the National team, then the team can use his Designated Juniors spot on a sub of any age while he’s away.
(I put a link to article that I’m paraphrasing below.)

For a while, Shak’s team was using the extra two junior players to have 4 defensive pairs (in part due to having a lot of older defensemen), now they switched to a more common extra defenseman/spare foreword.

That spare forward role is how Gritsyuk started out and all our defensemen were the extra defensemen at one point.

I’m all for leaving wingers and goalies ( or that we ever draft those, but hypothetically) in the KHL, they just develop better there. (The Flyers yanked goalie Kirill Ustimenko out of the MHL at age 19 to play in the AHL and that’s just weird to me.)

With defensemen, Russia produces great defensive defensemen, but the record with offensive defensemen and PMD is a bit thinner. That said, it’s not like they’re going to ruin him or something, he’ll be fine (Ottawa’s Zub is great.). He’s very young, if he’s not comfortable coming over, then forcing it isn’t a good idea. He may want to get his game to higher level before coming over.

He’s 19, it was always going to take more time. I know fans have no patience but you have to patient. It’s foolish to say we can’t wait.

Edit: Shakir was born Jan 10th 2002 and they do age by birth year (going by this article) so he’ll be 20 in 2022-23 season, and therefore still a junior player. (That’s not his only value of course and he’ll be 21 in the 2nd year of his deal, but having a top four defenseman not count against a hard salary cap is a lot of added value in the first year.)

Designated Juniors: The KHL’s Young Player Rules

You are 100% correct about KHL salary cap rules (U21). I would just remind there is coming the federal law which will obligate U23 players to pay a development fee to their clubs if moving abroad. Due to NHL clubs paying nothing, players will (guessing via bonuses from NHL, CHL clubs). That law is now in State Duma.

 

[Classic Devil]

You are 100% correct about KHL salary cap rules (U21). I would just remind there is coming the federal law which will obligate U23 players to pay a development fee to their clubs if moving abroad. Due to NHL clubs paying nothing, players will (guessing via bonuses from NHL, CHL clubs). That law is now in State Duma.

Yikes.

 

[JrFischer54]

i don't know much about russian culture or the khl but I gotta believe that staying there longer is not good for his career. If its anything more then another year i personally don't like that.

 

[None Shall Pass]

I was super high on him as a pick. I just want him to come over and play

 

[Triumph]

You are 100% correct about KHL salary cap rules (U21). I would just remind there is coming the federal law which will obligate U23 players to pay a development fee to their clubs if moving abroad. Due to NHL clubs paying nothing, players will (guessing via bonuses from NHL, CHL clubs). That law is now in State Duma.

I thought NHL clubs could pay these fees, they're just not obligated to do so because there isn't a transfer agreement with the KHL, so the fees could be individually negotiated.

 

[Buck Dancer]

He’s a talented kid but I don’t know if a pass happy center is what this team needs.

We shouldn't be drafting for need in the 1st round, that's better served for later rounds. Shak was a swing for the fences type of pick because it was our 3rd pick of the 1st round and it's like we were playing with house money. We had no picks in the 2nd round and it felt like we said to ourselves "screw it, let's take him now because he won't be there in the 3rd round". Ideally, we should've traded down, collect more assets and still land our guy 5 to 10 picks later but they didn't want to gamble possibly losing him or had no takers who wanted to move up, who knows.

I'm not a fan at all of players who converted to another position, a harder position, a couple of years before the draft. He can make it work but like @TheUnseenHand stated, we had a golden opportunity to draft Mercer's running mate in Chicoutimi. I get that he had injury issues heading in the draft but players get injured all the time and was looked at by several scouts to be an even better talent then Mercer.

I hope Shak can put it all together, I really do, but I'm always on the fence when drafting Russians with several red flags in the 1st round.

 

[Triumph]

Both ideas can be true - it can be generally correct to draft 'BPA', and it can be better for the Devils that they theoretically did not do so, even though we have no evidence that they didn't.

 

[Buck Dancer]

Both ideas can be true - it can be generally correct to draft 'BPA', and it can be better for the Devils that they theoretically did not do so, even though we have no evidence that they didn't.

I honestly think the Rangers screwed us big time by taking Braden Schneider, one pick before Shak and we kind of settled for what was probably our 3rd option on our board in regards to dman being available in that range.

 

[My3Sons]

We shouldn't be drafting for need in the 1st round, that's better served for later rounds. Shak was a swing for the fences type of pick because it was our 3rd pick of the 1st round and it's like we were playing with house money. We had no picks in the 2nd round and it felt like we said to ourselves "screw it, let's take him now because he won't be there in the 3rd round". Ideally, we should've traded down, collect more assets and still land our guy 5 to 10 picks later but they didn't want to gamble possibly losing him or had no takers who wanted to move up, who knows.

I'm not a fan at all of players who converted to another position, a harder position, a couple of years before the draft. He can make it work but like @TheUnseenHand stated, we had a golden opportunity to draft Mercer's running mate in Chicoutimi. I get that he had injury issues heading in the draft but players get injured all the time and was looked at by several scouts to be an even better talent then Mercer.

I hope Shak can put it all together, I really do, but I'm always on the fence when drafting Russians with several red flags in the 1st round.

If the whole KHL extension wasn't an issue and he played a lead role at the WJC for Russia and then came to play in Utica next season there would likely be less angst. There isn't anything about his play that seems problematic for where he was picked. He's playing pretty well in a tough men's league that is notoriously hard for younger players. He's going to be a top defender on the WJC team of a major hockey power and maybe even get a letter. So far, so good. It's hard to know if they drafted for need or if they just liked Mukhamadullin. My own suspicion is that he was a Fitz vanity pick if you read his comments.