Speculation: Sens, Lebreton, and the NCC part II

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

If they want to run it as a budget team, the main thing they need is to start having some direction and communicating with their fan base just what it is we're supposed to be cheering or even watching for. I wouldn't pay to just go watch 20 guys skate around playing meaningless hockey praying you can hit that 8th playoff spot. It needs to be either hope for the future, or hope for contention, none of this one step forwards and one step backwards the next year because you couldn't afford to navigate roster change. Last year we couldn't attempt to replace two very important players in Methot and Macarthur and now this year we're faced with having lost our 3rd best player in Hoffman shortly after other subtractions at the deadline. Just what are we doing going forward? Franchises that stay in that middle ground like so many in the MLB and NBA do, eventually have predominantly disengaged fan base. Our last rebuild didn't work because we got a little impatient, and the budget wouldn't allow us to grow the roster properly, so it's time to admit defeat and rebuild again imo.

Last year I was laughing at the Canadiens for spinning their wheels in no particular direction, now that's us.

Our FOUR best and only three star players are heading in to their UFA season, that is uncharted territory in pro sports. To top it off, a big reason we might not be able to afford them is because we have like $25 mil being completely wasted on Anderson, Condon, Ryan, Smith & Gaborik/Phaneuf as we tried to stay relevant on a shoe string budget. It sounds like one of the main reasons we can't realistically keep the few good players we do have is because we can't compete financially in the current landscape of the league with bonus heavy contracts. If that's the case, get the f*** off the pot completely and just blow this shit up properly and get out there and sell it to your fanbase.

As a Sens fan since the mid 90's, I've never been more confused about the direction of the on ice product. We could see a new owner/partner come in and help facilitate deals to the couple good players we have, or we could trade all four of Karlsson, Duchene, Stone & Dzingel before the deadline, who knows at this point, but imo IF a new owner isn't on the way explaining all this weirdness, then the franchise is failing their fans right now.

 

[Sensung]

No matter how many ways you slice it-total revenue, revenue per fan, we have been bringing in the numbers (at least until the 2017-2018 season).

Fan shamers on this board gotta just stop it. You just alienate the very people you claim are needed. When I read your posts, it seriously makes me not want to buy tickets at all. Shaming them into coming to a game isn't going to work. If you can't tell from this thread, it will only strengthen the resolve of their mindset.

Revenue per fan in Ottawa $88. I believe only Winnipeg and Edmonton are higher. The rest of the NHL is lower. This stat inherently will skew to good small hockey markets but it is a measure of fan worthiness-directly or indirectly (in terms of TV deals) and that is what we are...a good small hockey market.

This is the number that is on the fan and it shows people in this city put up. And no it does not matter if that revenue is from TV deals. Revenue is revenue and it comes from team interest-directly or otherwise. In person viewership yields ticket revenue and those viewers at home contribute by way of the TV revenue. Ticket revenue might be higher per game per person but its irrelevant. An NHL owner will receive revenue from both and the sum is all that matters and is a measure of interest in a team in a given market.

Are there market issues? Yes, but Lebreton will go a long way in making up for them. Ottawa's market issues are corporate based. the lebreton experience will be sure to address that, but it will also result in higher regular ticket prices. A lebreton arena will yield double digit ticket revenue growth-guaranteed.

Fan issues, I'm sorry. This is precisely why posters here are fed up. The average Ottawa citizen has brought in $88 to the team and got yelled at for it while the average Toronto citizen has brought in $34 and is heaped with praise. Bob Mckenzie knows it and said so during one broadcast last winter. Bill Daly confirmed it because the NHL knows the numbers.

As for profitability....frankly, with a private company-we'll never know the full story. And there is probably good reason for that.

Fantastic post!

 

[Do Make Say Think]

fact of the matter is attendance comparable to the other Canadian Markets would add 8-10M to the revenues at our prices. That could go a long way in stabilizing things. That is a star player salary.

That seems very optimistic. You got anything to back the claim?

I am more in agreeance with you than not but you can't say something like that without backing it up.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

Of course there was no traffic this year; barely anybody showed up

lol

 

[Ray Kinsella]

We are just supposed to surrender our dollars to him and never question his judgement, nor to ever ask for more than he is willing to give.....In a nutshell Sens brass since the beginning

Which reminds me... I have to contact RCA for money they owe me.
Thanks!

 

[Pancakes Pancakes]

Dont know if this JF Plante guy from Le Droit has any inside knowledge but it's now the first time lately that he makes a comment like this on Twitter:

"Karlsson will stay if there is a change in ownership. The waiting continues as negotiations are still on even if the concerned people say there are no talks."

 

[Ray Kinsella]

This being kind of off topic, currently going through a severe personal/family situation in the last week, I still come here to attempt to distract myself and keep positive. These last few pages didn’t help much.

However, for what it’s worth, and it’s worth it to me, I hold this team close to my heart and always will. I agree and disagree with several of the situations this franchise is going through. Also, i see a silver lining to everything. The silver lining of all these intense arguments to me is that, in the end, everyone here is passionate about the Sens.

Cheers

 

[L'Aveuglette]

It isn't about supporting Melnyk, it is about supporting the players, the team. If people around here can get over their feelings from their perches, then this team will have a chance to compete with others and the fans cheer and support the Senators. Not you per se, but in general.

He doesn't. It is a reality of being a small market team that also receives equalization payments to try and make the team competitive. Fact of the matter is attendance comparable to the other Canadian Markets would add 8-10M to the revenues at our prices. That could go a long way in stabilizing things. That is a star player salary.

Sort of. Just saying the pizza line was played in front of a papered house. People are intellectually dishonest around here about it because it is common knowledge that it was papered. We all do. And I don't care if it is common practice in the NHL. In Canada, it is most likely not. Why would they need to? They can move their tickets, we cannot.

Yes, the tarps should not have happened and if costs was an issue, would they not tarp off the most expensive seats that cannot be moved? People will not but the cheapest tickets. There is work to be done there. Will Lebreton cure this problem? A resounding no, but if they want to put an arena downtown, good luck to them. Lebreton will cost fans more. Period.

How many times can you make the same exact argument? I'm almost impressed in how many different ways you can word "bad fans are to blame for everything".

I don't know why anyone even bothers responding to the apologists, myself included. Now even when someone brings up how we filled the arena for over a decade with 18-19k average(the numbers prove it) until 2016 it's because the team was papering lol.

 

[armani]

Dont know if this JF Plante guy from Le Droit has any inside knowledge but it's now the first time lately that he makes a comment like this on Twitter:

"Karlsson will stay if there is a change in ownership. The waiting continues as negotiations are still on even if the concerned people say there are no talks."

I couldn't find any such tweet on his twitter account, can you post a link?

 

[BloodRedArmy]

I couldn't find any such tweet on his twitter account, can you post a link?

 

[Micklebot]

This being kind of off topic, currently going through a severe personal/family situation in the last week, I still come here to attempt to distract myself and keep positive. These last few pages didn’t help much.

However, for what it’s worth, and it’s worth it to me, I hold this team close to my heart and always will. I agree and disagree with several of the situations this franchise is going through. Also, i see a silver lining to everything. The silver lining of all these intense arguments to me is that, in the end, everyone here is passionate about the Sens.

Cheers

Best of luck with whatever is troubling the family Ray, hope there are at least a few places around here that can be a more positive distraction.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Sort of. Just saying the pizza line was played in front of a papered house. People are intellectually dishonest around here about it because it is common knowledge that it was papered. We all do. And I don't care if it is common practice in the NHL. In Canada, it is most likely not. Why would they need to? They can move their tickets, we cannot.

Yes, the tarps should not have happened and if costs was an issue, would they not tarp off the most expensive seats that cannot be moved? People will not but the cheapest tickets. There is work to be done there. Will Lebreton cure this problem? A resounding no, but if they want to put an arena downtown, good luck to them. Lebreton will cost fans more. Period.

The only Canadian teams that do not paper the numbers is Montreal and Toronto.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

No matter how many ways you slice it-total revenue, revenue per fan, we have been bringing in the numbers (at least until the 2017-2018 season).

Fan shamers on this board gotta just stop it. You just alienate the very people you claim are needed. When I read your posts, it seriously makes me not want to buy tickets at all. Shaming them into coming to a game isn't going to work. If you can't tell from this thread, it will only strengthen the resolve of their mindset.

Revenue per fan in Ottawa $88. I believe only Winnipeg and Edmonton are higher. The rest of the NHL is lower. This stat inherently will skew to good small hockey markets but it is a measure of fan worthiness-directly or indirectly (in terms of TV deals) and that is what we are...a good small hockey market.

This is the number that is on the fan and it shows people in this city put up. And no it does not matter if that revenue is from TV deals. Revenue is revenue and it comes from team interest-directly or otherwise. In person viewership yields ticket revenue and those viewers at home contribute by way of the TV revenue. Ticket revenue might be higher per game per person but its irrelevant. An NHL owner will receive revenue from both and the sum is all that matters and is a measure of interest in a team in a given market.

Are there market issues? Yes, but Lebreton will go a long way in making up for them. Ottawa's market issues are corporate based. the lebreton experience will be sure to address that, but it will also result in higher regular ticket prices. A lebreton arena will yield double digit ticket revenue growth-guaranteed.

Fan issues, I'm sorry. This is precisely why posters here are fed up. The average Ottawa citizen has brought in $88 to the team and got yelled at for it while the average Toronto citizen has brought in $34 and is heaped with praise. Bob Mckenzie knows it and said so during one broadcast last winter. Bill Daly confirmed it because the NHL knows the numbers.

As for profitability....frankly, with a private company-we'll never know the full story. And there is probably good reason for that.

That post needs to be stickied at the top of the forum.

Well said!

 

[armani]

So is he talking about change of ownership outright or a partnership?With all the underground chatter, how come the mainstream and Ottawa based media are not even mentioning this? And even the social media postings/rumours aren't naming names of a potential new owner/partner.

How would Plante know that others don't unless he is getting it from a potential owner? French Canadian Connection?

This off season is like a nightmare where you are dreaming of another nightmare..

Hope something legit is happening with all the strange happenings.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Not a nightmare, clearly something is in the works, there really is no other rational explanation. Enjoy the rest of your summer everyone, good news is on the way.

 

[coladin]

We have great fans. We have more challenges than most markets. We are still trying to grow our fanbase. But the support is there. We just need competent ownership and some direction. We've had to try and convert lifelong Habs and Leafs fans to cheer for the Sens. Stick an MLB team in Connecticut and try and convert Yankees and Red Sox fans. It's challenging and takes time.

We have great diehard fans. We do not have enough fans though. That is the problem.

The competent ownership card is a convenient way to absolve the fans of this city from supporting the team. I don't buy it. You have competent ownership , but a losing team and you're telling me that people will pack the stands?

It is winning that matters for me. And star players. The rest is just noise. Who wouldn't want an organization that isn't run perfectly? But it doesn't happen often and typically losing teams have organizational issues. It is part of the results of losing.

This team had a great playoff run and up and coming stars in 2016-2017. This city did not do its job. It keeps getting sugarcoated.

 

[Flamingo]

Dont know if this JF Plante guy from Le Droit has any inside knowledge but it's now the first time lately that he makes a comment like this on Twitter:

"Karlsson will stay if there is a change in ownership. The waiting continues as negotiations are still on even if the concerned people say there are no talks."

What I hate about this tweet: What negotiations? Trade? Extension? Team ownership?

 

[coladin]

However you want to justify it go for it.

All I said was Melnyk does not lose money with the Senators. Again, it's an opinion as I'll never see the true numbers.

All revenues brought in by owning the Sens count towards that, I don't care if it comes from the NHL, TV deals, merch deals, expansion fees.. It's all associated with owning the Sens. He can keep them if he wants as that is his right, but then he can't get pissed when the fans decide not to show up.

After this dismal season, where most teams would of went on a marketing blitz and tried to keep everything positive towards the future, they go out and have one of the worst off seasons in memory.

I'm no where near as pissed about it as some here, but I certainly understand it. There is pretty much zero reason to be optimistic about this season. The sens brass (or whatever is left of it) have pretty much made sure of that.

I think the team is pretty revenue neutral, or loses a few million. When Forbes reveals operating income, this does not include debt repayment/mortgage payments which wipes out most of the operating income. I believe that is why he refinanced, to take advantage of lower borrowing rates and to borrow more because of that. He is most likely keeping his payments the same but getting more cash up front.

I agree with you about this off season. Not good. Clearly, there are developments behind the scenes that hopefully will be revealed soon enough. I can't reveal who this rumored partner is, but it will be a welcome breath of fresh air.

I think there is reason to be optimistic with young energy and the core returning. Let's hope for continued positive developments as September approaches.

 

[coladin]

That seems very optimistic. You got anything to back the claim?

I am more in agreeance with you than not but you can't say something like that without backing it up.

4000 seats per game is 160k empty seats multiplied by the average ticket price 60 is that number without concessions and whatnot. That is 9.6M just in tickets. Nothing scientific but I think you get my point.

Attendance is hurting the team. Going to Lebreton will only work for the short term until the same arguments come up again.

 

[Sensung]

We have great diehard fans. We do not have enough fans though. That is the problem.

The competent ownership card is a convenient way to absolve the fans of this city from supporting the team. I don't buy it. You have competent ownership , but a losing team and you're telling me that people will pack the stands?

It is winning that matters for me. And star players. The rest is just noise. Who wouldn't want an organization that isn't run perfectly? But it doesn't happen often and typically losing teams have organizational issues. It is part of the results of losing.

This team had a great playoff run and up and coming stars in 2016-2017. This city did not do its job. It keeps getting sugarcoated.

Here us an amazing post by @Sensational Ride that was apparently lost on you.

Please read it and give some thought.

No matter how many ways you slice it-total revenue, revenue per fan, we have been bringing in the numbers (at least until the 2017-2018 season).
Fan shamers on this board gotta just stop it. You just alienate the very people you claim are needed. When I read your posts, it seriously makes me not want to buy tickets at all. Shaming them into coming to a game isn't going to work. If you can't tell from this thread, it will only strengthen the resolve of their mindset.
Revenue per fan in Ottawa $88. I believe only Winnipeg and Edmonton are higher. The rest of the NHL is lower. This stat inherently will skew to good small hockey markets but it is a measure of fan worthiness-directly or indirectly (in terms of TV deals) and that is what we are...a good small hockey market.
This is the number that is on the fan and it shows people in this city put up. And no it does not matter if that revenue is from TV deals. Revenue is revenue and it comes from team interest-directly or otherwise. In person viewership yields ticket revenue and those viewers at home contribute by way of the TV revenue. Ticket revenue might be higher per game per person but its irrelevant. An NHL owner will receive revenue from both and the sum is all that matters and is a measure of interest in a team in a given market.
Are there market issues? Yes, but Lebreton will go a long way in making up for them. Ottawa's market issues are corporate based. the lebreton experience will be sure to address that, but it will also result in higher regular ticket prices. A lebreton arena will yield double digit ticket revenue growth-guaranteed.
Fan issues, I'm sorry. This is precisely why posters here are fed up. The average Ottawa citizen has brought in $88 to the team and got yelled at for it while the average Toronto citizen has brought in $34 and is heaped with praise. Bob Mckenzie knows it and said so during one broadcast last winter. Bill Daly confirmed it because the NHL knows the numbers.
As for profitability....frankly, with a private company-we'll never know the full story. And there is probably good reason for that.

 

[Sensung]

What I hate about this tweet: What negotiations? Trade? Extension? Team ownership?

Seriously?

Wow, it is obviously about ownership.

 

[coladin]

How many times can you make the same exact argument? I'm almost impressed in how many different ways you can word "bad fans are to blame for everything".

I don't know why anyone even bothers responding to the apologists, myself included. Now even when someone brings up how we filled the arena for over a decade with 18-19k average(the numbers prove it) until 2016 it's because the team was papering lol.

Funny how I say the same things but you do the same. Dude, place was full of freebies. I mean, how thick do you have to be to constantly ignore a fact?

Chop off a few grand and see how those numbers look.

And again, your schtick or extremist points of view. There is never any middle ground with you. I can't help you with that. Whenever someone disagrees with you, you jump to the absolute furthest distortion. Bad fans are to blame for everything said no one never.

Lack of fan support, lack of expertise in the front office, poor managerial decisions and, finally, terrible performances on the ice led by a robotic, listless coach who avoids the reality of the situation is the whole enchilada.

Right now, the fan portion is the focal point as revenues and such are being discussed. Deny, deflect, scapegoat, etc...doesn't change the fact that fans have checked out and they do not look good in comparison to the other Canadian markets.

 

[Sensung]

4000 seats per game is 160k empty seats multiplied by the average ticket price 60 is that number without concessions and whatnot. That is 9.6M just in tickets. Nothing scientific but I think you get my point.

Attendance is hurting the team. Going to Lebreton will only work for the short term until the same arguments come up again.

Attendance will be abysmal unless Eugene sells.

This year will be looked back upon as the good old days if Melnyk sells off EK and/or the other stars.

 

[coladin]

So is he talking about change of ownership outright or a partnership?With all the underground chatter, how come the mainstream and Ottawa based media are not even mentioning this? And even the social media postings/rumours aren't naming names of a potential new owner/partner.

How would Plante know that others don't unless he is getting it from a potential owner? French Canadian Connection?

This off season is like a nightmare where you are dreaming of another nightmare..

Hope something legit is happening with all the strange happenings.

I think a lot of people know, including media. Perhaps they are worried about jeopardizing the deal. This impending deal does not need intense media scrutiny and attention. That would be a nightmare.

I think the new partner will bring in former players in some capacity. I won't say Alfie, but wouldn't be surprised if it were another prominent Senator who is in town.

 

[Sensung]

Funny how I say the same things but you do the same. Dude, place was full of freebies. I mean, how thick do you have to be to constantly ignore a fact?

Chop off a few grand and see how those numbers look.

And again, your schtick or extremist points of view. There is never any middle ground with you. I can't help you with that. Whenever someone disagrees with you, you jump to the absolute furthest distortion. Bad fans are to blame for everything said no one never.

Lack of fan support, lack of expertise in the front office, poor managerial decisions and, finally, terrible performances on the ice led by a robotic, listless coach who avoids the reality of the situation is the whole enchilada.

Right now, the fan portion is the focal point as revenues and such are being discussed. Deny, deflect, scapegoat, etc...doesn't change the fact that fans have checked out and they do not look good in comparison to the other Canadian markets.

Perhaps you should ask yourself why the fans have checked out.

Try reading this article
The Ottawa Senators enter the 'Tyson Zone' - Macleans.ca