Silver Seven Senators Remain at Odds with Outside Scouting Consensus

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Suddenly Ceci is a good player and pick?

Did hell freeze over while I was asleep?

 

[albator71]

What does this scouting staff have to do to earn the benefit of the doubt? I mean what's the realistic success rate people expect from our draft picks that satisfies this fanbase?

Look at the haul of prospects they've brought in in the last few years: Formenton, Batherson, Tkachuk, JBD, Crookshank, Mandolese, Thomson, Pinto, Sogaard, Stutzle, Sanderson, Greig, Kleven, Sokolov, Merilainen in addition to identifying Brannstrom and Norris in trades.

7 of the guys listed are already in the NHL with 5 more 1-2 years away and the others potentially in that timeframe too

Couldn't agree with you more!!! haters will hate no matter what I guess!

 

[Micklebot]

Cody Ceci going to play in the NHL a long time. He’ll find a home and play hundreds more games, good pick

Daigle and Stefan played around 500 games, were they good picks or do the hall of gamers chosen after then play into the determination?

 

[Tuna99]

Daigle and Stefan played around 500 games, were they good picks or do the hall of gamers chosen after then play into the determination?

they were first overall and Ceci wasn’t so let’s start there with expectations and face of franchise stuff. Cody Ceci isn’t a face of your franchise type of guy so we’re equating completely different things. Nobody expects Lassi Thomson to have the same impact as Tim Stutzle, maybe he does but expectations are a big part of this.

I think if you look at Cecis draft he’s had a decent career and would warrant where he was picked more or less

would you rather have Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk or Codi Ceci?

 

[Micklebot]

they were first overall and Ceci wasn’t so let’s start there with expectations and face of franchise stuff. Cody Ceci isn’t a face of your franchise type of guy so we’re equating completely different things. Nobody expects Lassi Thomson to have the same impact as Tim Stutzle, maybe he does but expectations are a big part of this.

I think if you look at Cecis draft he’s had a decent career and would warrant where he was picked more or less

would you rather have Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk or Codi Ceci?

I'd rather Hertl, Wilson Teravainen or Vasilevski who were the next 4 picks.

Guys bust in the 1st round, not every pick is good, Ceci wasn't terrible, because he did play, but he also wasn't terribly good. He was the equivalent of hitting a foul ball. You didn't strike out but it also doesn't really get you anywhere.

 

[supsens]

I'd rather Hertl, Wilson Teravainen or Vasilevski who were the next 4 picks.

Guys bust in the 1st round, not every pick is good, Ceci wasn't terrible, because he did play, but he also wasn't terribly good. He was the equivalent of hitting a foul ball. You didn't strike out but it also doesn't really get you anywhere.

He is still playing he is actually a decent pick, you dont Have reasonable expectations.

 

[Micklebot]

He is still playing he is actually a decent pick, you dont Have reasonable expectations.

The guys I listed are still playing too. Picked right after him. Should we compare their resumes?

 

[supsens]

The guys I listed are still playing too. Picked right after him. Should we compare their resumes?

No you should compare it to every single player in history taken in that spot

 

[Micklebot]

No you should compare it to every single player in history taken in that spot

That would be pointless because drafts differ from one another. I don't begrudge us for selecting Phillips because guys like Crosby, McDavid and Lemieux were taken in that spot.

Look, my expectation is that draft picks are never sure things, there will be hits and misses regardless of where you draft. Ceci though doesn't move the needle either way. I'm neither going to praise or chastise the team for the selection, he was, as I said earlier, a foul ball. Better luck next time, that one was in the sweet spot but we didn't get enought of it. Didn't hurt (much) but didn't help. It happens.

The whole point though is that whether a pick was good, bad, or in between lies in the alternative. If no better option was available, it can't be a bad pick even if the player busts, if loads of talent was passed on even if that player has a 500+ game career, it could be a miss.

 

[supsens]

That would be pointless because drafts differ from one another. I don't begrudge us for selecting Phillips because guys like Crosby, McDavid and Lemieux were taken in that spot.

Look, my expectation is that draft picks are never sure things, there will be hits and misses regardless of where you draft. Ceci though doesn't move the needle either way. I'm neither going to praise or chastise the team for the selection, he was, as I said earlier, a foul ball. Better luck next time, that one was in the sweet spot but we didn't get enought of it. Didn't hurt (much) but didn't help. It happens.

The whole point though is that whether a pick was good, bad, or in between lies in the alternative. If no better option was available, it can't be a bad pick even if the player busts, if loads of talent was passed on even if that player has a 500+ game career, it could be a miss.

Without knowing what guys are going to hit the roids or what guys will party away their potential it’s impossible to always pick the best player and unreasonable to expect it
A guy could dislike the city or other guys in the locker room and not develop as well as he would have somewhere else.

 

[SENATOR]

BankStreetParade said: ↑

What does this scouting staff have to do to earn the benefit of the doubt? I mean what's the realistic success rate people expect from our draft picks that satisfies this fanbase?

Dorion was an amateur scout for the Habs for eleven years until 2005. During those years very little success in drafting for Montreal organization.

Scouting staff under Trent Mann and Dorion as GM
2017 - first round Shane Bowers - grade D
2018 Jacob Bernard-Docker and Tkachuk who is still a role player and there is not much of an offensive upside. Tkachuk was still a consensus top 5 pick.
Jacob Bernard-Docker is still a long shot. Wait and see. Grade B
2019 Lassi Thomson is an extreme reach. When well scouted and projected first rounder was Ville Heinola and he was available so was Philip Tomasino everyone wanted Sens to draft. Grade D
2020 Tim Stuetzle and Jake Sanderson when Jamie Drysdale was available. Jamie will be 10 million player a year and will win a few Norris trophies. Sanderson is Redden. For this I would grade B
2021 Tyler Boucher is an ultimate reach. This guy if will make NHL, nothing more but a fourth line player. To pick him at number 10, everyone should be fired. As usual Sens wasted another second round pick. Grade D

We have Trent Mann and Dorion drafting at C- on average on first round picks. And grade D on three occasions.
​

 

[Micklebot]

Without knowing what guys are going to hit the roids or what guys will party away their potential it’s impossible to always pick the best player and unreasonable to expect it
A guy could dislike the city or other guys in the locker room and not develop as well as he would have somewhere else.

Well it's a scouts job to know the character of these kids too, that's why they talk to coaches and interview these kids.

That said, nowhere did I say I expect perfection. But we can still look back in retrospect and identify which picks were hits, misses and in between. Every team has misses, and every team has meh picks. Ceci was a meh pick. Nothing wrong with admitting that.

 

[SENATOR]

Well it's a scouts job to know the character of these kids too, that's why they talk to coaches and interview these kids.

That said, nowhere did I say I expect perfection. But we can still look back in retrospect and identify which picks were hits, misses and in between. Every team has misses, and every team has meh picks. Ceci was a meh pick. Nothing wrong with admitting that.

You do not need any character at all. It is 21 century now. Beside the best success Sens had with only three elite all stars Spezza, Heatley and Alfredsson and a decent goalie and physical defense with Redden, Chara and Volchenkov. Thats's the ticket to the Stanley Cup final. And every god damn team does it. Dorion as just an idiot as he does not get it, or restricted by the budget. Drafting another god damn it a utility player. The whole Belleville team is full of them.

 

[Cosmix]

I don't get what your asking.

I said that they are pretty much the best scouting staff in the past 15 yrs and so far people have twisted the rest of what I said to imply that they aren't good at scouting...because they have yet to pick perfectly and have made some mistakes.

Aside from Tampa, I don't think anyone else can even touch Ottawa's drafting record.

my question is what assessments or method are you using to support your statement that the Senators drafting record is better than all other NHL teams?

 

[DaveMatthew]

Suddenly Ceci is a good player and pick?

Did hell freeze over while I was asleep?

Ceci has played the 4th most NHL games out of anyone taken in the 1st round of his draft class. He's played 8 NHL seasons and in 6 of those, he's been top 4 in minutes amongst defenseman on his team.

He's on track to play 1000 games in the NHL.

He may have been a whipping boy here in Ottawa, but at #15, he's a good pick.

In a re-draft of the 2012 first, he'd go in the top 10.

1. Vasilevskiy
2. Forsberg
3. Trouba
4. Rielly
5. Wilson
6. Hertl
7. Dumba
8. Teravainen
9. Ceci

 

[TheDebater]

You do not need any character at all. It is 21 century now. Beside the best success Sens had with only three elite all stars Spezza, Heatley and Alfredsson and a decent goalie and physical defense with Redden, Chara and Volchenkov. Thats's the ticket to the Stanley Cup final. And every god damn team does it. Dorion as just an idiot as he does not get it, or restricted by the budget. Drafting another god damn it a utility player. The whole Belleville team is full of them.

You need to either:

A. Clarify what you are trying to say

or

B. Re-evalute your knowledge of Senators history

You are angry for nothing. Both Spezza and Heatley were top 2 picks in their drafts, when was the last time Ottawa had a top 2 pick? The closest we got was #3 and I would say we picked a HIGHLY skilled player there, would you not agree?

If you expected Ottawa to pick a Spezza or Heatley caliber player at #10 overall this year, then you need to brush up on past drafts and realize how difficult it is to draft a superstar outside the top 5. It is possible, but highly unlikely to know it on draft day.

 

[Cosmix]

Well it's a scouts job to know the character of these kids too, that's why they talk to coaches and interview these kids.

That said, nowhere did I say I expect perfection. But we can still look back in retrospect and identify which picks were hits, misses and in between. Every team has misses, and every team has meh picks. Ceci was a meh pick. Nothing wrong with admitting that.

Agreed. Predicting future performance with high or 100% accuracy is very difficult to do.

some teams seem to have better records than others. Some of the attempts to rank teams are very interesting to examine to determine their methodologies.

 

[Beech]

No you should compare it to every single player in history taken in that spot

as a #15, he is perhaps the 4th or 5th best from 2000-20019.

a few issues to consider. The Mick wrote at length about the 4 picks immediately after him. The issue there is not him, but Brian Murray. The success of those after him is a stain on Murray and not Ceci. And, he has been a journeyman. 3 teams so far and he is 28. The Sens were so frustrated that they took on Zietsev..5 more years on his contract at 4 1/2 million. They did a "cut off your nose to spite your face" and are okay with it. Makes you wonder how desperate they were to get rid of him when all he had was one more year on his contract.

read the Analytics argument in the "hiring of Pierre" thread. The analytics guys really dislike Ceci and blasted Dubas for it.

The reality is: Ceci is: average to poor. But at #15 he is okay..Dumb luck had 4 rock stars after him.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Ceci's played over 500 NHL games and 20+ minutes a night in playoff games. He's a miss, but Logan Stanley is a decent NHLer?

Colin White is a miss (33 G and 88 P in 200 GP) but Jack Roslovic is not (38G, 101P in 228 GP)?

Shane Bowers and Kristian Vesailainen were taken in the same draft and neither is an NHLer, or trending to be an NHLer. I'll give Noesen and Puempel as misses.

Ceci has been bad in most of those 500 games. He's a replacement level D and that's a disappointing result for a 15th OVR pick, even if he's played in a lot of games.

I think Stanley is probably the worst pick they've made in the 1st round. Not sure he'll ever be more than a bottom pairing D. Suppose you could also call him a miss too. I just never had any faith in him ending up a top 4 D.

Roslovic had 34P/48GP this past year, while White had 18P/45GP. Roslovic is a tier above talent-wise and will probably solidify himself as a top 2 line center, while I'm skeptical White ever ends up being more than a 3rd liner.

 

[Beech]

Ceci has played the 4th most NHL games out of anyone taken in the 1st round of his draft class. He's played 8 NHL seasons and in 6 of those, he's been top 4 in minutes amongst defenseman on his team.

He's on track to play 1000 games in the NHL.

He may have been a whipping boy here in Ottawa, but at #15, he's a good pick.

In a re-draft of the 2012 first, he'd go in the top 10.

1. Vasilevskiy
2. Forsberg
3. Trouba
4. Rielly
5. Wilson
6. Hertl
7. Dumba
8. Teravainen
9. Ceci

no..a solid 6-7 guys would be ahead of him. He is at best the 5th or 6th best Dman from that draft class. If redrafted, he would still go in the area of 15.

The problem...your #1, #5, $6 and #8 went after him..and. One has won 2 cups and is a rock star. One has won 1 cup and when he is not loosing his head is a much valued player and the 2 others are rock solid NHL 2 liners.

The "Ceci" is a 4-5 Dman on his 3rd team, while only 27. Even the analytics guys blasted him..read the article posted in the "hiring of McGuire thread".

 

[DJB]

I guess unless we draft superstars with each pick some people just won't be happy.

Must be tough living like that.

 

[DaveMatthew]

no..a solid 6-7 guys would be ahead of him. He is at best the 5th or 6th best Dman from that draft class. If redrafted, he would still go in the area of 15.

The problem...your #1, #5, $6 and #8 went after him..and. One has won 2 cups and is a rock star. One has won 1 cup and when he is not loosing his head is a much valued player and the 2 others are rock solid NHL 2 liners.

The "Ceci" is a 4-5 Dman on his 3rd team, while only 27. Even the analytics guys blasted him..read the article posted in the "hiring of McGuire thread".

I was talking about the 1st round, only. In a re-draft of the 1st, he'd go in the top 10.

Just because there were a few players picked behind him that turned out far better doesn't make him a bad pick at 15. Nikolaj Ehlers at #9 in 2014 isn't a bad pick because David Pastrnak went at #25.

Ceci, despite the fan hate, is carving out a solid NHL career. He managed to play 18+ minutes a night for the 5th best regular season team last year. Unless you think Bryan Murray, Kyle Dubas, Sheldon Keefe, Jim Rutherford, and Mike Sullivan don't know what they're doing...

I'll take their word over the analytics "community" on Twitter.

He's not a superstar. He's not a top pairing player. But he was a good pick.

 

[BK201]

Ceci was a solid pick that had a solid OHL career tbh.

 

[Big Muddy]

Seems like every team has a defender on their team that becomes a scape goat for some fans. Those in this category often get tough minutes and play against good players.

We wish they were all studs, but that is statistically not possible. By the same token, they are average and/or decent players that still carve out multi-year careers as a legit NHL player.

For us, it was Ceci, and probably Zaitsev now, but I'd guess Brannstrom might be a more recent entry. But all teams have them.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

Certain players do tend to get scapegoated but I will say, Ceci was one of the most frustrating players to watch in a Sens uniform me. Like I couldn’t stand it.

Apparently he looked more solid with the Pens in the role he had, so I’m glad for him. But to me, man was he tough to watch on most nights.