Silver Seven Senators Remain at Odds with Outside Scouting Consensus

[Beech]

Couch scouts don't have a job to lose if their wrong. First round is for safe picks. Later rounds for swing taking. It's a formula that works. Name another team that's drafted better in the past 10 or 15 years, not including 1st and 2nd overall picks as the Sens have had none.

if you want to shrink that to the last 6 years (2015-2020). I would agree. The draft from 2007-2014 is at best so/so to poor.

2014..no one
2013 (Lazar, a journeyman 4th liner)
2012 (Cecci...a journeyman 4/5 defense-man)
2011 ( 3 first rounders, only one guy made it...The Mik is doing well, but he has worn out his welcome now on 2 teams, JGP: a rock star, Dzingel: a journeyman 3rd liner)
2010 (Mark Stone, a late round chance that paid off)
2009 (Mix bag.. in my eyes, no one that I would declare a star..all are journeymen..some are enfant terrible)
2008 (home run...EK rock star)
2007...no one

It is not an accident that this team collapsed in 2017/2018..take a good look at 2007-2014....The pipeline was not exactly full. Now take a look at the average finish 2009/2010 to 2020/2021 and you will see the team was in the bottom 1/3 pretty consistently. Again reflective of a dried up pipeline.

Take a real good look at first and second rounders 2007-2014, it is not exactly packed with HOFs. 14 picks in round 1 and 2. It produced 6 full time NHLers. Cecci and Lazar being journeymen. So 4 out of 14 are regulars. EK is a star. The Mik is above average..2 guys!

2007-2014 so/so to poor. 2015-2020 looking real good so far.

 

[Korpse]

Why do you cheer for this team? Seems excruciating.

Its 100% parody.

 

[TkachukNorrisFacts]

if you want to shrink that to the last 6 years (2015-2020). I would agree. The draft from 2007-2014 is at best so/so to poor.

2014..no one
2013 (Lazar, a journeyman 4th liner)
2012 (Cecci...a journeyman 4/5 defense-man)
2011 ( 3 first rounders, only one guy made it...The Mik is doing well, but he has worn out his welcome now on 2 teams, JGP: a rock star, Dzingel: a journeyman 3rd liner)
2010 (Mark Stone, a late round chance that paid off)
2009 (Mix bag.. in my eyes, no one that I would declare a star..all are journeymen..some are enfant terrible)
2008 (home run...EK rock star)
2007...no one

It is not an accident that this team collapsed in 2017/2018..take a good look at 2007-2014....The pipeline was not exactly full. Now take a look at the average finish 2009/2010 to 2020/2021 and you will see the team was in the bottom 1/3 pretty consistently. Again reflective of a dried up pipeline.

Take a real good look at first and second rounders 2007-2014, it is not exactly packed with HOFs. 14 picks in round 1 and 2. It produced 6 full time NHLers. Cecci and Lazar being journeymen. So 4 out of 14 are regulars. EK is a star. The Mik is above average..2 guys!

2007-2014 so/so to poor. 2015-2020 looking real good so far.

Yeah but they also drafted Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman and Ryan Dzingel among others outside of the first 2 rounds in that time and they were also selling off a lot of their picks to remain competitive for playoff pushes, not to mention all the Russian studs they passed up through no fault of PD.

Is there a team that drafted better in that time, aside from maybe back to back Cup winning Tampa Bay?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Couch scouts don't have a job to lose if their wrong. First round is for safe picks. Later rounds for swing taking. It's a formula that works. Name another team that's drafted better in the past 10 or 15 years, not including 1st and 2nd overall picks as the Sens have had none.

And you view that as a positive? Passing up on potential better players because you're afraid to make a mistake and lose your job isn't a good thing.

 

[TkachukNorrisFacts]

And you view that as a positive? Passing up on potential better players because you're afraid to make a mistake and lose your job isn't a good thing.

It's just reality. Would you really risk your own personal employment for the betterment of the company you work for? If so, I have a bridge I'd like to sell to you.

Also, no has yet to name a scouting staff that's drafted better than ours in the past 15 years or so, just saying.

 

[Beech]

Yeah but they also drafted Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman and Ryan Dzingel among others outside of the first 2 rounds in that time and they were also selling off a lot of their picks to remain competitive for playoff pushes, not to mention all the Russian studs they passed up through no fault of PD.

Is there a team that drafted better in that time, aside from maybe back to back Cup winning Tampa Bay?

no. because 15 years is way too long to use as a judgement period. 6-7 is far more realistic.

I am sure that you if download every draft pick, and do some primitive data analysis (points, games played, PPG, "qualitative/quantitative review of trades") and come up with some "number/coefficient" to determine draft success. My guess is; you would end up with most, if not all teams, coming up with a score that is very close to one another if you focus on 15 years.

Repeat, and focus on 6 or 7 years. Starting with 3 drafts earlier. So, we today having finished the 2021 draft, would start at the 2019 draft and moving to the 2014. And then 2013-2007. The Sens would score very high for 19-14, but very low 13-07.

The success and failure of a franchise in 2015/16 to 2020/2021 is in my opinion, reflective of the 13(14)-07 draft. The nice thing is: we flushed that period out and will be by the 2021/22 to 26/27 under the umbrella of the 14-19 draft, with the 2020 draft being a grey zone contributing both to it and to the 2027/28 to the 32/33 period. These are not hard and fast rules and grey zones do exist. End years can belong to different eras.

To return to your question, No team is better or worse if over a 15 year period. Many teams are better than the Sens 13(14)-07. Very few are better than the Sens 14(15)-2020.

better 14-07: Washington, Boston, Tampa, Colorado, NYI . these are a sample..Forgive me if I don't have the patience to repeat for the 30 team league.
Better 15-20: NO one.... competitive: NYI, NYR(possibly, still early).

 

[Xspyrit]

if you want to shrink that to the last 6 years (2015-2020). I would agree. The draft from 2007-2014 is at best so/so to poor.

2014..no one
2013 (Lazar, a journeyman 4th liner)
2012 (Cecci...a journeyman 4/5 defense-man)
2011 ( 3 first rounders, only one guy made it...The Mik is doing well, but he has worn out his welcome now on 2 teams, JGP: a rock star, Dzingel: a journeyman 3rd liner)
2010 (Mark Stone, a late round chance that paid off)
2009 (Mix bag.. in my eyes, no one that I would declare a star..all are journeymen..some are enfant terrible)
2008 (home run...EK rock star)
2007...no one

There would be much more to rectify in here but 2 main things I have noticed without really reading the post

- it doesn't take account that 2 first rounders have been used to acquire 2 forwards who have played 862 games with Ottawa, scoring 224 goals and 316 assists for 540 pts (+ they were good performers in the playoffs)

- I don't think you'd find many people that will use the word "journeyman" this way

 

[NyQuil]

Mann has earned some capital with the Ottawa fanbase but has chosen to spend a lot of it this year.

I'm prepared to see what happens.

 

[H2O]

This year, we’re not even talking about passing on “tier 1” forwards that slid for whatever reason like Barzal, Caufield, Connor. I see Sillinger, Corronato, Lucius, etc as more along the lines of past prospects like Logan Brown, Kiefer Bellows, Rubstov, Wahlstrom, Vilardi, etc. Some will work out as a top line player, but realistically most won’t. So pick the kid that best fits the team you’re trying to build.

 

[Dingleberry]

This year, we’re not even talking about passing on “tier 1” forwards that slid for whatever reason like Barzal, Caufield, Connor. I see Sillinger, Corronato, Lucius, etc as more along the lines of past prospects like Logan Brown, Kiefer Bellows, Rubstov, Wahlstrom, Vilardi, etc. Some will work out as a top line player, but realistically most won’t. So pick the kid that best fits the team you’re trying to build.

I agree, I didn't like the Boucher pick but at least they didn't draft him over one of the clearly better top 9 skaters. Sillinger, Coronato, Lucius, Lysell etc. all are fairly flawed skaters and I wasn't too hot on any of them. Honestly would have preferred a goalie at 10 over any skater.

 

[Beech]

fly in the ointment

Boucher is: Brian Boucher's son. The same Bouch!! that worked with McGuire at NBC.

Any link???? I know Pierre came on only recently and the scouting is done well in advance. But man what a coincidence. And to pick him 20 or so spots earlier than anticipated and with the kid having knee surgery.

This one the Sens will wear big time if he fails.. Let's hope McGuire's fingerprints are on it.

 

[aragorn]

fly in the ointment

Boucher is: Brian Boucher's son. The same Bouch!! that worked with McGuire at NBC.

Any link???? I know Pierre came on only recently and the scouting is done well in advance. But man what a coincidence. And to pick him 20 or so spots earlier than anticipated and with the kid having knee surgery.

This one the Sens will wear big time if he fails.. Let's hope McGuire's fingerprints are on it.

They did mention they thought that the NYR were going to pick Boucher with their 16th pick which I believe is why they took him early so as not to lose out on him. The NYR did pick Jayden Grubbe RW with their very next pick a very similar player to Boucher & a guy I liked & had discussed both these two players with Rafi & SOA earlier this summer. So this notion that he would have gone 20 spots later I think is nonsense, they usually have pretty good info on these things every draft. There may even have been another team interested in him before NY for all we know.

If he is the player you want & he is available than you should pick him before someone else does & screw the criticism, we see that done every draft including this one. Remember when Gretsky went off the board & drafted Wheeler quite early & most thought it was nuts, he turned into a pretty good player & it happens all the time. Just as it does in reverse where everyone has a player highly ranked (Yakopov) & he never pans out & it turns into a wasted pick. I bet there are just as many of those every draft too or guys who have the skillset but lack the character & ruin the room.

These scouts put in countless hours of video & live screenings of players, this yr being an exception & we have to give them time to see if they made a good or bad pick. The Sens scouts have a pretty good tract record & we should wait to see if they were right or wrong again this time. They do make mistakes, everybody does, but we won't know that until these guys graduate or how they develop over the next few yrs.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

What grudge does Scott Wheeler have against this scouting staff?

Ranked them dead last this year for Day 2

Losers on Day 2 last year

First of the " overtime losers" for Round 1 last year.

Again, "overtime loser" in day 2 of the 2019 draft.

 

[Beech]

They did mention they thought that the NYR were going to pick Boucher with their 16th pick which I believe is why they took him early so as not to lose out on him.

----------------------

These scouts put in countless hours of video & live screenings of players, this yr being an exception & we have to give them time to see if they made a good or bad pick. The Sens scouts have a pretty good tract record & we should wait to see if they were right or wrong again this time. They do make mistakes, everybody does, but we won't know that until these guys graduate or how they develop over the next few yrs.

#25 by Central scouting for NA skaters.
assume some mishmash of Europeans. That pushes him to ~ #40.
add goalies. We are at ~ #42-#43

Central scouting is a department of the NHL. Old Eugene pays for it. And it was started by Jack Button. Craig Button's dad. (granted Tod Button's dad as well...read down....OOOOOH)

In 2012, the Flames pulled a similar move with Mark Jankowski. He was #42 in NA so ~ 75 overall. They took him at 21 and he has been a miss.

They will look like savants if he works out. Like fools if he does not...Let's hope there are no fingerprints...

Okay after reading about central scouting and the Buttons. My own faith is shaken.

 

[Deku]

What grudge does Scott Wheeler have against this scouting staff?

Ranked them dead last this year for Day 2
View attachment 456302

Losers on Day 2 last year
View attachment 456304

First of the " overtime losers" for Round 1 last year.
View attachment 456305
Again, "overtime loser" in day 2 of the 2019 draft.
View attachment 456306

Wheeler's rankings of Stutzle and Sanderson were absolute clown shit

 

[aragorn]

It's important to go against the grain & consensus from time to time, if history has shown us anything it's how often the consensus & general view point can be so wrong.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

+ Sanderson + Batherson + Formenton
Maybes to Crookshank and Sokolov as well
Shout out to Trent Mann. Mann Bros are must keeps if Melnyk decides to clean house

 

[bert]

+ Sanderson

Well Lundell and Drysdale had better years than Sanderson, I know its one spot im knit picking but they did. Thomson was a massive miss that was a maligned pick, feels like people are cherry picking here. What I do know is we wont know for quite some time, I also dont dislike the Boucher pick (or Sanderson) just at 10 id have prefered they target more skill as I think the team has alot of players that are hard to play against. There is a good chance they have another high pick next year so maybe they address that in the next draft. I like the idea of the identity the team is building but if you are picking top 10 you want to target a player that is a top 6 forward or a top 3 d man. Is boucher a top 6 forward? Thats the question. Seeing Clarke slip that far also got my hopes up the sens couldtrade up, what a pick by the Kings who have no stud prospect D men in the system. I think he is the most skilled/talented player in the draft.

 

[Cosmix]

Our scouts have earned the right to draft whoever they feel is best for the team long-term, even if it strays from the consensus picks. I trust them but hope they made the right decisions, otherwise we could certainly be looking back at this draft and question why they went so far on their own.

If the Senators picks from this draft do not work out better than what could have been using a consensus of reputable rating entities, then the blame would lie with those in management who defined the criteria for making the picks and those who rated them. That management list would include Dorion, Mann and the amateur scouts.

 

[Cosmix]

Just like writing off Brady on draft day was premature, so is writing off Zadina now.

I don't think posters were "writing off" anybody; rather they were expressing their opinion on which player they preferred at that pick.

I don't think anybody on the site, perhaps other than RAFI, thought the Senators would pick Boucher at #10. I admire his theorizing on this pick.

Those who support the pick seem to do so because it was the Senator's pick and now provide after the fact rationalization and support, some saying "trust in Mann". Others think that other players should have been picked, putting their views out there. I am part of the latter group.

 

[Cosmix]

It sounds like Sens fans (for the most part) trust Trent Mann and the Senators scouting staff.

Its the outside media, and fans of other fanbase’s that question the Senators.

Not all Sens fans. I would say many Sens fans do that. Some do not agree with the Senators selections and would have preferred other picks. I am happy to read their comments instead of blind trust statements.

 

[SAK11]

What grudge does Scott Wheeler have against this scouting staff?

Ranked them dead last this year for Day 2
View attachment 456302

Losers on Day 2 last year
View attachment 456304

First of the " overtime losers" for Round 1 last year.
View attachment 456305
Again, "overtime loser" in day 2 of the 2019 draft.
View attachment 456306

Winners/Losers lists could just as easily be labelled: Which team's draft board looked the most similar and the most different to mine? A lot of online scouts/ twitter people seem to prefer the undersized skilled players, while Ottawa has made it clear that they value size and high effort level players. I'd look for them to keep being the "Losers" on Scott Wheeler's list for years to come, and that is something I won't lose any sleep over.

 

[Cosmix]

It's just reality. Would you really risk your own personal employment for the betterment of the company you work for? If so, I have a bridge I'd like to sell to you.

Also, no has yet to name a scouting staff that's drafted better than ours in the past 15 years or so, just saying.

What is the information backing up your statement that "no has yet to name a scouting staff that's drafted better than ours in the past 15 years or so"?

 

[Deku]

Winners/Losers lists could just as easily be labelled: Which team's draft board looked the most similar and the most different to mine? A lot of online scouts/ twitter people seem to prefer the undersized skilled players, while Ottawa has made it clear that they value size and high effort level players. I'd look for them to keep being the "Losers" on Scott Wheeler's list for years to come, and that is something I won't lose any sleep over.

Yeah, Scott will give teams poor ratings even if he likes the prospects they picked, just because he had them ranked slightly lower. It's completely asinine

 

[aragorn]

Well Lundell and Drysdale had better years than Sanderson, I know its one spot im knit picking but they did. Thomson was a massive miss that was a maligned pick, feels like people are cherry picking here. What I do know is we wont know for quite some time, I also dont dislike the Boucher pick (or Sanderson) just at 10 id have prefered they target more skill as I think the team has alot of players that are hard to play against. There is a good chance they have another high pick next year so maybe they address that in the next draft. I like the idea of the identity the team is building but if you are picking top 10 you want to target a player that is a top 6 forward or a top 3 d man. Is boucher a top 6 forward? Thats the question. Seeing Clarke slip that far also got my hopes up the sens couldtrade up, what a pick by the Kings who have no stud prospect D men in the system. I think he is the most skilled/talented player in the draft.

I thought we had a shot at both Guenther & Clarke too, but somewhere I read they tried to move up & it didn't happen, so what can you do if nobody else wants to deal? Who do you think that was drafted after Boucher is a better fit on this team?

I like Sillenger too, but I'm not sure he turns into a better player or that much better & Lucius IMO would be a swing for the fences, lots of skill, but there are questions around him too. I guess all of these guys have question marks of one kind or another. Anybody else besides goalies I mean?