Silver Seven Senators Remain at Odds with Outside Scouting Consensus

[bert]

I thought we had a shot at both Guenther & Clarke too, but somewhere I read they tried to move up & it didn't happen, so what can you do if nobody else wants to deal? Who do you think that was drafted after Boucher is a better fit on this team?

I like Sillenger too, but I'm not sure he turns into a better player or that much better & Lucius IMO would be a swing for the fences, lots of skill, but there are questions around him too. I guess all of these guys have question marks of one kind or another. Anybody else besides goalies I mean?

Lucius was the one I was hoping for but like I said im ok with Boucher too. I didnt see much of either of them so my opinion doesnt really matter.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Lucius was the one I was hoping for but like I said im ok with Boucher too. I didnt see much of either of them so my opinion doesnt really matter.

Lucius looked awesome in his first summer showcase game. I was hoping for either him or Sillinger at 10.

Jets with another 1st round steal. For all the talk about the Sens being a great drafting team, the Jets have been far better over the years in the 1st round in comparison, largely because they don't try to be the smartest people in the room and don't overthink things when a highly skilled player with upside falls to them.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Lucius looked awesome in his first summer showcase game. I was hoping for either him or Sillinger at 10.

Jets with another 1st round steal. For all the talk about the Sens being a great drafting team, the Jets have been far better over the years in the 1st round in comparison, largely because they don't try to be the smartest people in the room and don't overthink things when a highly skilled player with upside falls to them.

This is why people think your posts are ridiculous. You always claim teams make steals the day of the draft. It’s absurd. How is Lucius a steal in any sense? He went around where he was supposed to go

 

[Hale The Villain]

This is why people think your posts are ridiculous. You always claim teams make steals the day of the draft. It’s absurd. How is Lucius a steal in any sense? He went around where he was supposed to go

Easy. Unlike you I watch draft eligibles play during their draft year and come into the draft with opinions about where they should go.

Lucius went far lower than he should have gone in my opinion, so I think the Jets stole him at 19.

It's a very very simple concept.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Easy. Unlike you I watch draft eligibles play during their draft year and come into the draft with opinions about where they should go.

Lucius went far lower than he should have gone in my opinion, so I think the Jets stole him at 19.

It's a very very simple concept.

I forgot you know everything when it comes to the draft. That’s why you’ve been posting about it on HF for a decade.

 

[aragorn]

Lucius looked awesome in his first summer showcase game. I was hoping for either him or Sillinger at 10.

Jets with another 1st round steal. For all the talk about the Sens being a great drafting team, the Jets have been far better over the years in the 1st round in comparison, largely because they don't try to be the smartest people in the room and don't overthink things when a highly skilled player with upside falls to them.

They also seem to have a tendency to draft & trade for some pretty big players & have had a lot of big players on their teams over the yrs & still do.

 

[Sens in Process]

This year, we’re not even talking about passing on “tier 1” forwards that slid for whatever reason like Barzal, Caufield, Connor. I see Sillinger, Corronato, Lucius, etc as more along the lines of past prospects like Logan Brown, Kiefer Bellows, Rubstov, Wahlstrom, Vilardi, etc. Some will work out as a top line player, but realistically most won’t. So pick the kid that best fits the team you’re trying to build.

This is a really good take. After trying to dissect every prospect in the 10 to 20 range, I wasn't firmly committed to a favourite and i don't see super high upside in guys like Sillinger or Coronato. They will be good players, but most likely destined for a middle six role. Hell, this was a weird draft. Mactavish, who goes at 3, may top out as a as good second liner and we would be collectively excited to get him. Greig just missed this years draft window. And if he was available, i could have seen him go top ten.

 

[aragorn]

This is a really good take. After trying to dissect every prospect in the 10 to 20 range, I wasn't firmly committed to a favourite and i don't see super high upside in guys like Sillinger or Coronato. They will be good players, but most likely destined for a middle six role. Hell, this was a weird draft. Mactavish, who goes at 3, may top out as a as good second liner and we would be collectively excited to get him. Greig just missed this years draft window. And if he was available, i could have seen him go top ten.

Good point. I remember with one of my posts talking about taking McTavish at 10 would be great for this team & a few people arguing that he was not elite enough & would end up as a 3rd line player. Given he went 3rd OA I imagine that everyone after the 2nd OA pick must not be elite enough for these same people. It's all PD's fault for not winning the damn lottery.

 

[Cosmix]

One of them lol

You mean I can do another?! Great!

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

This year, we’re not even talking about passing on “tier 1” forwards that slid for whatever reason like Barzal, Caufield, Connor. I see Sillinger, Corronato, Lucius, etc as more along the lines of past prospects like Logan Brown, Kiefer Bellows, Rubstov, Wahlstrom, Vilardi, etc. Some will work out as a top line player, but realistically most won’t. So pick the kid that best fits the team you’re trying to build.

Makes it easier to get behind Boucher and the package he brings or at least see why they may want to add that player.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Lucius looked awesome in his first summer showcase game. I was hoping for either him or Sillinger at 10.

Jets with another 1st round steal. For all the talk about the Sens being a great drafting team, the Jets have been far better over the years in the 1st round in comparison, largely because they don't try to be the smartest people in the room and don't overthink things when a highly skilled player with upside falls to them.

Far better? Last 2011-2020:

	Winnipeg	Ottawa
Top 3	Patrick Laine	Tim Stützle
Top 10	Mark Scheifele, Nik Ehlers, Jacob Trouba, Cole Perfetti	Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, Mika Zibanejad
First round	Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor, Jack Roslovic, Ville Heinola, Kristian Vesalainen, Logan Stanley	Thomas Chabot, Colin White, Cody Ceci, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Lassi Thomson, Shane Bowers, Logan Brown, Curtis Lazar, Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Both teams have hits and misses. The Jets had their early picks years ago, so we'll see how Sanderson, Stützle, Brown and JBD continue to develop (same for Heinola, Perfetti, etc).

Interestingly, a couple of the Jets best picks have been when they took players earlier than expected.

Scheifele was #12 on Bob's consensus list. Jets took him at 7.
Morrissey was #28 on Bob's consensus list. Jets took him at 13.

Fun quotes:

The Jets shocked everyone by selecting Mark Schiefele with their first pick. It was a bold move, but also the wrong one. Schiefele does not possess the upside that other players selected after him have.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-draft-2011-30-team-analysis/

We're supportive of Winnipeg. We really are. But this was not a good pick. It's not just that he wasn't rated highly. Scheifele was a huge risk at seventh when Hamilton and Courturier remained on the board. There's a decent change he'll never become a reliable player in the league.

2011 NHL Draft: Grades for Every NHL Team Throughout the 1st Round

Smartest guys in the room, after all!

 

[DueDiligence]

Far better? Last 2011-2020:

	Winnipeg	Ottawa
Top 3	Patrick Laine	Tim Stützle
Top 10	Mark Scheifele, Nik Ehlers, Jacob Trouba, Cole Perfetti	Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, Mika Zibanejad
First round	Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor, Jack Roslovic, Ville Heinola, Kristian Vesalainen, Logan Stanley	Thomas Chabot, Colin White, Cody Ceci, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Lassi Thomson, Shane Bowers, Logan Brown, Curtis Lazar, Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Both teams have hits and misses. The Jets had their early picks years ago, so we'll see how Sanderson, Stützle, Brown and JBD continue to develop (same for Heinola, Perfetti, etc).

Interestingly, a couple of the Jets best picks have been when they took players earlier than expected.

Scheifele was #12 on Bob's consensus list. Jets took him at 7.
Morrissey was #28 on Bob's consensus list. Jets took him at 13.

Most people are counting on the premise that you won't due your research and disprove their "fact" which is usually just their subjective opinion. Good job!

 

[SensFan1010]

The only way to accurately look at our scouting is to compare it to other teams. You have to look at how many superstars,nhler, bust weve made and where compared to other teams.

Us reaching should have no negative connotation if we end up with better players then the majority of teams

 

[Hale The Villain]

Far better? Last 2011-2020:

	Winnipeg	Ottawa
Top 3	Patrick Laine	Tim Stützle
Top 10	Mark Scheifele, Nik Ehlers, Jacob Trouba, Cole Perfetti	Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, Mika Zibanejad
First round	Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor, Jack Roslovic, Ville Heinola, Kristian Vesalainen, Logan Stanley	Thomas Chabot, Colin White, Cody Ceci, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Lassi Thomson, Shane Bowers, Logan Brown, Curtis Lazar, Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Both teams have hits and misses. The Jets had their early picks years ago, so we'll see how Sanderson, Stützle, Brown and JBD continue to develop (same for Heinola, Perfetti, etc).

Interestingly, a couple of the Jets best picks have been when they took players earlier than expected.

Scheifele was #12 on Bob's consensus list. Jets took him at 7.
Morrissey was #28 on Bob's consensus list. Jets took him at 13.

Fun quotes:


https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-draft-2011-30-team-analysis/


2011 NHL Draft: Grades for Every NHL Team Throughout the 1st Round

Smartest guys in the room, after all!

The Jets have zero misses on that list. Even their weakest picks (Stanley and Vesalainen) are either NHLers or project as decent NHLers.

Sens have a much more questionable record with Ceci, White, Thomson, Bowers, Brown, Lazar, Noesen and Puempel - all of whom are disappointments.

How could you list those teams' picks side by side and come away with the impression that the Sens record isn't far worse?

 

[Micklebot]

Both teams have hits and misses

Who are the Jets misses? I'm not sure I see a Lazar, Puempel, Noesen or Bowers. L. Brown might enter that group for us, it's a bit early to tell. Are you already judging Vesalainen a bust? He might be, but then again, Thomson and JBD haven't proven any more than him ( he is a year older mind you)

 

[Hale The Villain]

The Sens staff has historically been better in rounds 2-7 than the Jets.

It's day 2 where they've done the most damage, whereas our history in the 1st round is definitely mixed at best.

 

[Micklebot]

The only way to accurately look at our scouting is to compare it to other teams. You have to look at how many superstars,nhler, bust weve made and where compared to other teams.

Us reaching should have no negative connotation if we end up with better players then the majority of teams

Judging drafting is tricky because it takes about 5 years before you know what you got and a lot of the time, the staff has changed when you start looking at reasonable samples.

We had a terrible stretch from 2012 to 2014, but it really isn't relevant to how we draft under Mann.

I'd also argue you have to judge not based on who you got but who you got out of those available.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Who are the Jets misses? I'm not sure I see a Lazar, Puempel, Noesen or Bowers. L. Brown might enter that group for us, it's a bit early to tell. Are you already judging Vesalainen a bust? He might be, but then again, Thomson and JBD haven't proven any more than him ( he is a year older mind you)

Ya, I thought with that 3rd row (1st round picks) he did a pretty good job of showing that the Jets did a better job. I'd give a smaller advantage to the Jets on the 2nd row as well currently (right now), although that could need readjustment in the future depending on Sanderson's ceiling.

And the first row (Top 3), its way too early as Stutzle has only played 1 NHL season. That makes it tough to do any kind of comparison.

These comments are specific to this post. In general, I like the Mann's and what they've done for the most part. Thought I'd clarify.

 

[DaveMatthew]

The Jets have zero misses on that list. Even their weakest picks (Stanley and Vesalainen) are either NHLers or project as decent NHLers.

Sens have a much more questionable record with Ceci, White, Thomson, Bowers, Brown, Lazar, Noesen and Puempel - all of whom are disappointments.

How could you list those teams' picks side by side and come away with the impression that the Sens record isn't far worse?

Ceci's played over 500 NHL games and 20+ minutes a night in playoff games. He's a miss, but Logan Stanley is a decent NHLer?

Colin White is a miss (33 G and 88 P in 200 GP) but Jack Roslovic is not (38G, 101P in 228 GP)?

Shane Bowers and Kristian Vesailainen were taken in the same draft and neither is an NHLer, or trending to be an NHLer. I'll give Noesen and Puempel as misses.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Who are the Jets misses? I'm not sure I see a Lazar, Puempel, Noesen or Bowers. L. Brown might enter that group for us, it's a bit early to tell. Are you already judging Vesalainen a bust? He might be, but then again, Thomson and JBD haven't proven any more than him ( he is a year older mind you)

If we’re considering L.Brown and Curtis Lazar misses, you’d have to put Vesalainen and Logan Stanley in that category as well, IMO.

It doesn’t mean they won’t play in the NHL (Lazar, after all, is still a useful player) but they’re certainly all not what they were expected to be.

With Lassi, JBD and Heinola, it’s still too soon to tell.

 

[Micklebot]

If we’re considering L.Brown and Curtis Lazar misses, you’d have to put Vesalainen and Logan Stanley in that category as well, IMO.

It doesn’t mean they won’t play in the NHL (Lazar, after all, is still a useful player) but they’re certainly all not what they were expected to be.

Both Vesalainin and Stanley are just starting their NHL careers, hard to call them misses just yet. Might end up being misses, but Stanley is well ahead of Brown right now who can't even stay healthy enough to get in the lineup (I also said Brown might end up a miss but it's too early to know) and Lazar has bounced around as a 4th liner. That's a miss in the 1st round, if Vesalainin never amounts to more than a bottom pair guy bouncing from team to team, sure he'll be a bit of a miss too.

You pointed out White vs Roslovic above, I wouldn't call White a miss, but Roslovic is certainly trending better. He's been showing more progress year to year, while White has struggled to stay healthy.

Beyond that, it's about who was available.

Brown could have been a number of better choices in hindsight (I really like the choice mind you, we swung a look to have missed), McAvoie, Chychrun, Fabbro.

Stanley didn't have a lot of clear upgrades following him

White could have been Konecny or Boeser,

Roslovic maybe Beauvillier?

Veasalainin could have been who, Jokiharju or Hague I suppose.

 

[TkachukNorrisFacts]

What is the information backing up your statement that "no has yet to name a scouting staff that's drafted better than ours in the past 15 years or so"?

I don't get what your asking.

I said that they are pretty much the best scouting staff in the past 15 yrs and so far people have twisted the rest of what I said to imply that they aren't good at scouting...because they have yet to pick perfectly and have made some mistakes.

Aside from Tampa, I don't think anyone else can even touch Ottawa's drafting record.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Both Vesalainin and Stanley are just starting their NHL careers, hard to call them misses just yet. Might end up being misses, but Stanley is well ahead of Brown right now who can't even stay healthy enough to get in the lineup (I also said Brown might end up a miss but it's too early to know) and Lazar has bounced around as a 4th liner. That's a miss in the 1st round, if Vesalainin never amounts to more than a bottom pair guy bouncing from team to team, sure he'll be a bit of a miss too.

You pointed out White vs Roslovic above, I wouldn't call White a miss, but Roslovic is certainly trending better. He's been showing more progress year to year, while White has struggled to stay healthy.

I wouldn’t consider Stanley well ahead of Brown, at all. They were taken in the same draft year, 7 spots apart. Brown has played 30 NHL games, Stanley 37. Both have been very sheltered. Stanley played 13 minutes a night for the Jets, not even regular #6 numbers. He got on the roster primarily because Beaulieu got hurt, not because he burst his way onto the scene. Next year, if Norris or White suffer a season ending injury, Logan will probably get 30 games too. Doesn’t mean he’s made it as an NHLer.

Roslovic and White have also both had 1 good offensive season. That’s it. Roslovic showed progress last year, but it his NHL career, particularly in Winnipeg, was a big disappointment. It’s why he’s no longer there.

But either way, we’re splitting hairs. Even if you slightly prefer Winnipeg’s haul, it’s hardly head and shoulders better, which is the statement that started this conversation.

Interestingly, the guy who’s “trending” to be the biggest disappointment, based on original expectations, is Patrick Laine. When you draft someone 2nd overall and he’s in a different city by the age of 23, that’s not great.

For the record, I think both teams have done well.

 

[Tuna99]

Ceci's played over 500 NHL games and 20+ minutes a night in playoff games. He's a miss, but Logan Stanley is a decent NHLer?

Colin White is a miss (33 G and 88 P in 200 GP) but Jack Roslovic is not (38G, 101P in 228 GP)?

Shane Bowers and Kristian Vesailainen were taken in the same draft and neither is an NHLer, or trending to be an NHLer. I'll give Noesen and Puempel as misses.

Cody Ceci going to play in the NHL a long time. He’ll find a home and play hundreds more games, good pick

 

[aragorn]

I think this is the year to be outside the box. Identify some players that may be undervalued due to lack of scouting opportunities and playing time. I am glad it was us making these kind of moves .. I have been a proponent of Mann's draft work so we are going to have to wait and see if we indeed get a couple gems here. I'm betting we will. Skating , Size, Compete level.. seem to be high on the list. I know IQ is as well. I like the direction we are going.

In so many other drafts people were pissed off that the Sens didn't go off the board & reach for some potential home run. This yr they go off the board & people think somehow they screwed up because they didn't stick with consensus rankings. How do you please everyone given most have no idea who most of these prospects are with so few viewings on all of them?

Every team makes mistakes & pick some wrong prospects & every yr some team get lucky including the Sens with some early &/or late rd picks. I tend to assume this is another typical draft yr where they will hit on some guys & miss with others. The big hope is that they hit with the guys picked early in the draft than later because those guys get more press & are argued over more whereas people expect a lot less from guys drafted later. I also like the direction of the team, they seem to me to be building a future playoff team with size, skill, speed & scoring ability on all lines. They are also looking to have a big mobile backend that can also contribute a little offensively.