Senators Off-Season Discussion 2024 Mega Thread

[JD1]

Chabot did not have a good year, I have no issues with that.

Saying that Branstrom played at a 1 million dollar level higher than Pietrangelo, that’s how you know that the method isn’t worth the time to read it.

It’s taking abusing and misrepresenting advanced stats to a whole new level, and obviously doesn’t take a lot of what matters into account.

I didn't look at any players other than sens players nor have I seen much of Vegas this year

What those cards do a very good job of imo is if you go up and down our roster and ranked our players relative to their contracts, I think it would look very similar to what the Athletic produced.

I have not looked at other teams nor am I familiar enough with other rosters to know.

I will say Brannstrom played well..I thought he had a very good year. He's a guy being paid 2 million and he earned his money. This teams biggest problem this year was guys with much larger paycheques not earning theirs.

And if I was in charge of assembling a team, I'd be interested in guys that are earning their money, not in guys that aren't

 

[BondraTime]

I didn't look at any players other than sens players nor have I seen much of Vegas this year

What those cards do a very good job of imo is if you go up and down our roster and ranked our players relative to their contracts, I think it would look very similar to what the Athletic produced.

I have not looked at other teams nor am I familiar enough with other rosters to know.

I will say Brannstrom played well..I thought he had a very good year. He's a guy being paid 2 million and he earned his money. This teams biggest problem this year was guys with much larger paycheques not earning theirs.

And if I was in charge of assembling a team, I'd be interested in guys that are earning their money, not in guys that aren't

I’d be very surprised if he was offered his QO, highly doubt the team will be keeping him around at that amount. He’s likely one of the guys to be moved on from.

He’s not a top 4 guy, he’s not a defensive or physical player, he isn’t an offensive player, he isn’t a top PK guy or PP guy. You don’t want him out at the end of a game to protect a lead or out with the goalie pulled to score. He has no real role.

He’s not the kind of player you want on your bottom pair, and if you’re actually playing him 20 minutes a night in your top 4 rather than the 16:30 he got this year, you’re likely not going to be happy.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Giroux
Jenner - Pinto - Appleton
Greig - Norris - Batherson
Kelly - Kastelic - Boko

Sanderson - Anderson
Chychryn - Zub
Kleven - Jan Ruta

Markstrom
Korpisalo

Ott: Jenner
CLB: Boston 1st, Mathieu Joseph, Robi Javerventie

Ott: Markstrom, 9th overall
Cal: 7th Overall, Sogaard, JBD, Zach Macewen (Salary dump)
(Calgary drafts Tij Iginla by moving up)

Ott: Ruuta (1yr, $2.75, 33yr, RD)
SJ: Brannstrom

Ott: Rasmus Anderson
Cal: Thomas Chabot, Zach Ostapchuk, 2nd round pick

Sign Mason Appleton 5 x 2.25 million

Can they afford this team not sure? But this team I think would make the playoffs

You've somehow managed to make the team worse.

I'd rather keep the 1st and Joseph > Jenner
I'd rather not bring in another albatross goaltender in Markstrom
Ruuta is a fine acquisition, but there's four-five other defenseman available with similar capabilities
Rasmus Anderson is not as good as that package, not by a mile.
In what world does Mason Appleton? get a 5 year contract.

Sorry Tuna, back to the drawing board.

The post you replied to assumes that Calgary is rebuilding. They are not really going to want to load up on our cast offs/non essential and overpaid players with term who haven’t performed well (or at a bare minimum, at a level close to their cap hit/salary). They are going to want to focus on “futures” (draft picks and promising prospects).

A lot of trade proposals give little thought to the potential trading partners needs.

It would also be nice to see more posts that pay attention to the necessary details like cap hits and the cap ceiling.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I like the look of our LD lineup with Chabot, Sanderson and Chychrun. I would like to keep all 3 of them and run the 3 sets of D at equal ice time. PP and PK time would be allocated to those who are playing best at the time.

On RD we have only 1 top 4 RD: Zub. Branny at $1.5M -$2M as 3 RD would be OK assuming we upgrade to a big tough defensively sound RD. Bernard-Docker still looks like a 6-7D to me; he is not physical and lacks offensive skills with the puck; I would like to replace him.

Harmonic is done; might have to retain him as 7th RD for next season only for his low salary rather than a buy-out.

I’m sure we all want to keep our best players and jettison the worst ones replacing them with much better ones. You see a lot of posts focusing on upgrades to our D along these lines. I’m making a more general post btw versus focusing on your post.

Unfortunately, there is a salary cap and we haven’t as much cap space as some seem to be imagining. Even if manage to move out someone like Chychrun and buyout let’s say Korpisalo, there’s still going to be a limit on how many of these desirable, good players that people are talking about in their posts. This assumes of course that Staois can even manage to swing these trades and/or other moves that are necessary.

Its unfortunate that roster idea posts don’t have the accompanying roster cap hit details and total cap as I’d guess half (maybe more) of these proposals would never see the light of day.

 

[Wondercarrot]

So McLennan's take is that the first 3 lines are solid hockey players, the D is fine as is; and that the team played poorly because of one backup goaltender and the three 4th liners?

That seems like a commentator who wants to retain his job by blaming the low salaried guys for the poor team performance and fears blaming the high salaried guys.

Noodles is god awful. Good dude I’m sure - but his commentary is pure weathervane.
The next new or interesting thing he says will be the first.

 

[Alex1234]

You've somehow managed to make the team worse.

I'd rather keep the 1st and Joseph > Jenner
I'd rather not bring in another albatross goaltender in Markstrom
Ruuta is a fine acquisition, but there's four-five other defenseman available with similar capabilities
Rasmus Anderson is not as good as that package, not by a mile.
In what world does Mason Appleton? get a 5 year contract.

Sorry Tuna, back to the drawing board.

What would be your next season team?

 

[Cosmix]

I’m sure we all want to keep our best players and jettison the worst ones replacing them with much better ones. You see a lot of posts focusing on upgrades to our D along these lines. I’m making a more general post btw versus focusing on your post.

Unfortunately, there is a salary cap and we haven’t as much cap space as some seem to be imagining. Even if manage to move out someone like Chychrun and buyout let’s say Korpisalo, there’s still going to be a limit on how many of these desirable, good players that people are talking about in their posts. This assumes of course that Staois can even manage to swing these trades and/or other moves that are necessary.

Its unfortunate that roster idea posts don’t have the accompanying roster cap hit details and total cap as I’d guess half (maybe more) of these proposals would never see the light of day.

I agree. Something has to give if you pay Chychrun $7-8M in 2025-26 onwards.

Here is a spreadsheet that I created to track my thoughts and keep me within the cap, excluding bonuses. Highlighted numbers are to resign a player or a replacement. In the cases of Tarasenko, Kubalik and Brannstrom it would be for a replacement player.

 

[Cosmix]

Except for Tkachuk, this team is SOFT. We need to add toughness and physical players.

 

[Yak]

Except for Tkachuk, this team is SOFT. We need to add toughness and physical players.

100% agree. We are the next version of the Maple leafs if we don't fix our issues in goal, defense and softness.

 

[GCK]

Except for Tkachuk, this team is SOFT. We need to add toughness and physical players.

I’ll agree with a caveat, I don’t want players who are just hitters or fighters, that’s not toughness that wins. I want players that are battle, box out, hit when appropriate and will get to the “dirty areas” in the ozone. I also don’t want to over compensate on the back end as we still need to be able to move the puck.

 

[Icelevel]

I’ll agree with a caveat, I don’t want players who are just hitters or fighters, that’s not toughness that wins. I want players that are battle, box out, hit when appropriate and will get to the “dirty areas” in the ozone. I also don’t want to over compensate on the back end as we still need to be able to move the puck.

Kleven is big and can move the puck. Brannstrom is small and can move the puck.
We need more of one of those.

 

[Senovision]

SENATORS POLL RESULTS: Fans want GM Steve Staios to make changes

The results of our Ottawa Senators reader polls about the disastrous, disappointing 2023-24 season.

ottawasun.com

 

[GCK]

Kleven is big and can move the puck. Brannstrom is small and can move the puck.
We need more of one of those.

Sanderson Tanev
Chabot Zub
Klevin Carrier
Brannstrom JBD

I doubt Brannstrom accepts a lower deal and adding Tanev a Carrier takes most of our free dollars but this would be ideal.

 

[Icelevel]

Sanderson Tanev
Chabot Zub
Klevin Carrier
Brannstrom JBD

I doubt Brannstrom accepts a lower deal and adding Tanev a Carrier takes most of our free dollars but this would be ideal.

Yeah looks good. Something like that.

 

[Senator Stanley]

SENATORS POLL RESULTS: Fans want GM Steve Staios to make changes

The results of our Ottawa Senators reader polls about the disastrous, disappointing 2023-24 season.

ottawasun.com

It's crazy that one of the twelve questions asked about the state of the franchise is "Should Erik Brannstrom be brought back?". The guy is a third pairing defenceman. The amount of attention and scrutiny he gets is absurd.

 

[Hale The Villain]

It's crazy that one of the twelve questions asked about the state of the franchise is "Should Erik Brannstrom be brought back?". The guy is a third pairing defenceman. The amount of attention and scrutiny he gets is absurd.

Yeah a lot of people have it out for the guy it seems.

Maybe has something to do with him being an obvious disappointment as the centerpiece in the Stone trade, but a lot of it has to do with his size and lack of offense.

He's not a top 4 D but he's a decent bottom pairing guy. Weird that so many want him gone.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Yeah a lot of people have it out for the guy it seems.

Maybe has something to do with him being an obvious disappointment as the centerpiece in the Stone trade, but a lot of it has to do with his size and lack of offense.

He's not a top 4 D but he's a decent bottom pairing guy. Weird that so many want him gone.

The nerve to try to play in the NHL as an undersized defenceman... it just makes so mad!

 

[GCK]

Yeah a lot of people have it out for the guy it seems.

Maybe has something to do with him being an obvious disappointment as the centerpiece in the Stone trade, but a lot of it has to do with his size and lack of offense.

He's not a top 4 D but he's a decent bottom pairing guy. Weird that so many want him gone.

It’s his price tag.

 

[Maraz]

My wild but ideal "plausible" scenario

Out - Kubalik, Brannstrom, Chychrun, Forsberg, Hamonic, dead cap, cap raise = ~23.5M

In - new contracts - Sanderson, Pinto, Kelly, Katchouk = ~11.5M

~12M to work with

Most of these calculations are just my wild assumptions (I have Chychrun/Forsberg traded without cap coming in, Brannstrom not re-signed and Pinto signed at 4.5M and Kelly at 1M, while Hamonic being bought out).
_____

Needs

RHD - Pesce, Roy, Tanev, DeMelo, Carrier, Walker (4 - 6.5M)

Middle 6 Veteran F - Henrique, Stephenson, Bertuzzi, Teravainen, Labanc, DeBrusk, T Johnson, Roslovic, Beauviller... (3.5 - 5.5M)

Goalie - Brossoit, Stolarz, Driedger, Wedgewood, Lankinen
_____

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Batherson
Norris-Pinto-Giroux
Joseph-Greig-Labanc(3M)
Katchouk-Kastelic-Kelly
Ostapchuk

Sanderson-Pesce/Roy(6M) - overpay to sign
Chabot-Zub
Kleven-JBD

Korpisalo, Brossoit (2.5M)

 

[Micklebot]

Yeah a lot of people have it out for the guy it seems.

Maybe has something to do with him being an obvious disappointment as the centerpiece in the Stone trade, but a lot of it has to do with his size and lack of offense.

He's not a top 4 D but he's a decent bottom pairing guy. Weird that so many want him gone.

I like the player, I don't like the fit.

I want physical defensive minded guys for my third pair, especially when I've got Chabot, Chychrun, and Sanderson ahead of him on the left.

I think we could get away with him on the right side if our third pair LD was a big physical defensive minded guy, but I'm not entirely comfortable if that left D is a rookie so Kleven isn't ideal.

I'd be ok with him back at the right price understanding that he'd be competing with some other guys for that bottom pair spot, he's currently one of our top 6 D no doubt but our D wasn't good enough so the goal is to push guys on the bottom pair our with additions to the top.

 

[Cosmix]

I didn't look at any players other than sens players nor have I seen much of Vegas this year

What those cards do a very good job of imo is if you go up and down our roster and ranked our players relative to their contracts, I think it would look very similar to what the Athletic produced.

I have not looked at other teams nor am I familiar enough with other rosters to know.

I will say Brannstrom played well..I thought he had a very good year. He's a guy being paid 2 million and he earned his money. This teams biggest problem this year was guys with much larger paycheques not earning theirs.

And if I was in charge of assembling a team, I'd be interested in guys that are earning their money, not in guys that aren't

In your opinion, which players on our team did not earn their salaries this past season, and which did?

Obviously the two goaltenders did not earn their salaries. Norris did not due to injuries.

 

[Cosmix]

I like the player, I don't like the fit.

I want physical defensive minded guys for my third pair, especially when I've got Chabot, Chychrun, and Sanderson ahead of him on the left.

I think we could get away with him on the right side if our third pair LD was a big physical defensive minded guy, but I'm not entirely comfortable if that left D is a rookie so Kleven isn't ideal.

I'd be ok with him back at the right price understanding that he'd be competing with some other guys for that bottom pair spot, he's currently one of our top 6 D no doubt but our D wasn't good enough so the goal is to push guys on the bottom pair our with additions to the top.

I feel the same about Brannstrom. We desperately need a big physical RD to play in the top 4. Given that need, Brannstrom likely does not fit as we need to use his salary dollars to pay that top 4 RD. I would like Brannstrom at #3RD at about $1M but I think he will go UFA and get $2M + from another team.

 

[redbrick98]

My wild but ideal "plausible" scenario

Out - Kubalik, Brannstrom, Chychrun, Forsberg, Hamonic, dead cap, cap raise = ~23.5M

In - new contracts - Sanderson, Pinto, Kelly, Katchouk = ~11.5M

~12M to work with

Most of these calculations are just my wild assumptions (I have Chychrun/Forsberg traded without cap coming in, Brannstrom not re-signed and Pinto signed at 4.5M and Kelly at 1M, while Hamonic being bought out).
_____

Needs

RHD - Pesce, Roy, Tanev, DeMelo, Carrier, Walker (4 - 6.5M)

Middle 6 Veteran F - Henrique, Stephenson, Bertuzzi, Teravainen, Labanc, DeBrusk, T Johnson, Roslovic, Beauviller... (3.5 - 5.5M)

Goalie - Brossoit, Stolarz, Driedger, Wedgewood, Lankinen
_____

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Batherson
Norris-Pinto-Giroux
Joseph-Greig-Labanc(3M)
Katchouk-Kastelic-Kelly
Ostapchuk

Sanderson-Pesce/Roy(6M) - overpay to sign
Chabot-Zub
Kleven-JBD

Korpisalo, Brossoit (2.5M)

Too young down the middle

We need more snarl ...

Sam Bennett > Labanc

Maybe a Brandon Tanev too from Seattle... Sea looking to unload

 

[JD1]

In your opinion, which players on our team did not earn their salaries this past season, and which did?

Obviously the two goaltenders did not earn their salaries. Norris did not due to injuries.

Norris was underperforming. He was pacing at 50. He probably needs to be at 65+.

Stuetzle underperformed but for me part of the issue there is I think we need him to really outperform the contract.

Chatbot badly underperformed his deal.

And the goalies.

Over performers I'd have Sanderson and Pinto but both of those change dramatically next year. Tkachuk and Brannstrom.

Chychrun performed to his deal but his deal is only 4.6. we're talking signing him at a much larger number and that could be trouble.

I think everyone else was kinda on par. Being just on par for JBD was kind of disappointing. He played ok but didn't elevate beyond just barely in the league.

At the end of the day, you need you best players to be your best players and they weren't. Hard to do anything in the league when your 1C, 2C, 1D and 1G all have injury riddled down seasons (except korpi who was just down)

 

[ijif]

Norris was underperforming. He was pacing at 50. He probably needs to be at 65+.

Stuetzle underperformed but for me part of the issue there is I think we need him to really outperform the contract.

Chatbot badly underperformed his deal.

And the goalies.

Over performers I'd have Sanderson and Pinto but both of those change dramatically next year. Tkachuk and Brannstrom.

Chychrun performed to his deal but his deal is only 4.6. we're talking signing him at a much larger number and that could be trouble.

I think everyone else was kinda on par. Being just on par for JBD was kind of disappointing. He played ok but didn't elevate beyond just barely in the league.

At the end of the day, you need you best players to be your best players and they weren't. Hard to do anything in the league when your 1C, 2C, 1D and 1G all have injury riddled down seasons (except korpi who was just down)

I think, at the very least, it is arguable that our best players were our best players. For example, and it is not the best model, but it is easy to navigate, and it should give a rough estimate, Evolving-Hockey’s WAR model says our best players were, more or less, our best players...

1. T. Stutzle - 2.4 WAR
2. B. Tkachuk - 2.3 WAR
3. J. Sanderson - 1.9 WAR
4. J. Chychrun - 1.5 WAR
5. T. Chabot - 1.5 WAR
6. A. Zub - 1.4 WAR
7. R. Grieg - 1.4 WAR
8. D. Batherson - 1.2 WAR

Total = 13.6 WAR


If we look at say, Boston's best players (for a benchmark), they look like this...

1. D. Pastrnak - 3.9 WAR
2. B. Marchand - 2.8 WAR
3. C. McAvoy - 2.1 WAR
4. P. Zacha - 1.6 WAR
5. H. Lindholm - 1.3 WAR
6. D. Forbort - 1.2 WAR
7. M. Geekie - 1.2 WAR
8. D. Heinen - 1.1 WAR

Total = 15.2 WAR

Boston is a bit better, but over 8 players, a 1.6 WAR difference is not too crazy, and it should not equate to 30+ standing point difference. The difference is likely coming from elsewhere.