Senators Off-Season Discussion 2024 Mega Thread

[BigRig4]

It's funny because every year, once they're eliminated, the Sens go on a 20-game heater to end the year and trick us into thinking they've turned the corner. No player embodies that more than Brannstrom I think.

 

[Relapsing]

It's funny because every year, once they're eliminated, the Sens go on a 20-game heater to end the year and trick us into thinking they've turned the corner. No player embodies that more than Brannstrom I think.

More than ready to move on from the player.

I firmly believe the major reason Dorion never traded him was because of his own sunk cost fallacy.

Time to turn the page

 

[JD1]

It's paywalled, so might need to summarize here;

Tkachuk Market value 10.2, salary 8.2 diff +2
Sanderson 9,.9,+8.1
Stutzle 7, 8.4, -1.4
Pinto 6.3, 0?, +6.3 (not sure what they are doing here... should be +5.5
Zub 6.4, 4.6, +1.8
Batherson 5.8, 5, +.8
Giroux 5.6, 6.5, -.9
Brannstrom 5, 2, +3
Chabot 4.2, 8, -3.8
Greig 3.5, 9, +2.6
Joseph 3.2, 3, +.2
Norris 2.5, 8, -5.5
Chychrun 2.4, 4.6, -2.2
Katchouk 1.2, .8, +.4
Kelly .9, .8, +.1
Kastelic .8, .8, 0
JBD .8, .8, 0
MacEwen .8, .8, 0
Kubalik .8, 2.5, -1.7
Hamonic .8, 1.1, -.3

So, totaled up we're +8.7 which seems like we should have been better than we were, but that's assuming average is 0 which I can't (won't do the work to) confirm.

relative to their contracts, here's the three highest rated Sens

Sanderson 9,.9,+8.1
Pinto 6.3, 0?, +6.3
Brannstrom 5, 2, +3

Sanderson and Pinto obviously getting huge raises next year.

Branny outplaying his contract by a huge margin....for all those saying he's fine at 1.4, the Athletic views it a little differently

 

[Senator Stanley]

Jamie McLennan talking about what to change on coming in hot,

Thinks they need to upgrade a goalie (not committing to one or the other) but suggested something like Forsberg for Jake Allen

Thinks the 4th line should be veterans, guys like Trevor Lewis, Acciari types to help settle things down.

Wallace mentioned Josh Bailey as a guy they had on PTO that might have fit that mold.

This is the exact opposite of what this team needs - another over-the-hill veteran with name recognition (Brassard, Bailey) or who's just already a contact in Pierre Dorion's phone (Tyler Ennis).

I'm hoping that with competent management and pro scouts we can start to be an organization that identifies depth players in the primes of their careers who can actually play. Florida is an example of a team that does this as well as anyone. No more handing 4th line spots to organizational pets, and no more bringing in guys on their way out of the league.

 

[Micklebot]

relative to their contracts, here's the three highest rated Sens

Sanderson 9,.9,+8.1
Pinto 6.3, 0?, +6.3
Brannstrom 5, 2, +3

Sanderson and Pinto obviously getting huge raises next year.

Branny outplaying his contract by a huge margin....for all those saying he's fine at 1.4, the Athletic views it a little differently

So is that a critique of those who value Brannstrom at 1.4 or a critique of the Athletic's model?

There are some curious ratings in there, Tanev for example at a Market value of 7.5 while his former Teammate Rasmus Andersson is valued at 3.3. Can't imagine too many GMs agreeing with that. Cody Ceci valued at 4.9 while Pietrangelo is valued at 4.4 (a minus 4.4 differential, maybe we can trade Chabot for him?)

I'm not sure what the Athletic model is doing to derive those numbers, So I don't really know how to critique them other than to say there are some guys where it doesn't intuitively make sense to me. I certainly don't value Cody Ceci (4.9 Market Value) or Brannstrom (5 MV) more than Brett Pesce (4.2 MV) Sieder (3.8 MV), K'andre Miller (3.4 MV), Trouba (2.2 MV), Ciernek (2.1 MV) Sergachev (1.3 MV), Byram (1.3 MV) . Do you?

 

[Micklebot]

This is the exact opposite of what this team needs - another over-the-hill veteran with name recognition (Brassard, Bailey) or who's just already a contact in Pierre Dorion's phone (Tyler Ennis).

I'm hoping that with competent management and pro scouts we can start to be an organization that identifies depth players in the primes of their careers who can actually play. Florida is an example of a team that does this as well as anyone. No more handing 4th line spots to organizational pets, and no more bringing in guys on their way out of the league.

So, both Ennis and Brassard drastically outperformed their contracts imo, for a depth PTO signing, I don't see anything wrong with bringing either guy in. The issue we had was that we lacked depth so those guys ended up being leaned on more than was ideal. A Bailey signing probaly would have meant less Chartier, maybe sitting Kastelic when he was struggling.

 

[Senator Stanley]

So, both Ennis and Brassard drastically outperformed their contracts imo, for a depth PTO signing, I don't see anything wrong with bringing either guy in. The issue we had was that we lacked depth so those guys ended up being leaned on more than was ideal. A Bailey signing probaly would have meant less Chartier, maybe sitting Kastelic when he was struggling.

Ennis (2.0) and Brassard both worked out fine for a bottom feeding team, but that type of player shouldn't have a place on a team that's actually trying to be good - and we are.

What I really want to see is this team starting to find guys on the UFA market who are in their primes and who are ready to make a significant contribution to a winning team in a depth role. Take a guy like Nick Cousins, who was pulled off the UFA pile by Florida, makes $1.1M AAV, and has become an important player for them. Not a Tyler Ennis who's about to be out of the league, and not a replacement-level tweener like Chartier, but an actually good NHL player who - if you put him out against an Ennis or a Chartier - will win those minutes.

 

[Micklebot]

Ennis (2.0) and Brassard both worked out fine for a bottom feeding team, but that type of player shouldn't have a place on a team that's actually trying to be good - and we are.

What I really want to see is this team starting to find guys on the UFA market who are in their primes and who are ready to make a significant contribution to a winning team in a depth role. Take a guy like Nick Cousins, who was pulled off the UFA pile by Florida, makes $1.1M AAV, and has become an important player for them. Not a Tyler Ennis who's about to be out of the league, and not a replacement-level tweener like Chartier, but an actually good NHL player who - if you put him out against an Ennis or a Chartier - will win those minutes.

So, I think both have their place. You sign PTO like Ennis, Brassard, and Bailey as depth guy, a 13th forward that can step in for injuries and be good in the room for practice, while making sure guys like Ostapchuk and Crookshank need to force their way onto the roster. You go after a player like Cousins to be a more regular player on your 4th line.

 

[bicboi64]

Ennis (2.0) and Brassard both worked out fine for a bottom feeding team, but that type of player shouldn't have a place on a team that's actually trying to be good - and we are.

What I really want to see is this team starting to find guys on the UFA market who are in their primes and who are ready to make a significant contribution to a winning team in a depth role. Take a guy like Nick Cousins, who was pulled off the UFA pile by Florida, makes $1.1M AAV, and has become an important player for them. Not a Tyler Ennis who's about to be out of the league, and not a replacement-level tweener like Chartier, but an actually good NHL player who - if you put him out against an Ennis or a Chartier - will win those minutes.

I understand the sentiment, but huge no to Cousins. Someone will overpay for him after he's established himself as a pest and dirtbag.

 

[Senator Stanley]

So, I think both have their place. You sign PTO like Ennis, Brassard, and Bailey as depth guy, a 13th forward that can step in for injuries and be good in the room for practice, while making sure guys like Ostapchuk and Crookshank need to force their way onto the roster. You go after a player like Cousins to be a more regular player on your 4th line.

Fair enough, but what we need and what we've lacked are the Cousins types. The PTO guy who's almost retired should be an after thought right now.

I just don't want them to limit themselves to "veterans" in their 30s with 700+ games played who don't quite have it anymore. A player like Travis Hamonic is a perfect example of what happens when you overvalue experience and undervalue ability. A player like that is not contributing to a winning culture because their on-ice play is feeding the losing.

I understand the sentiment, but huge no to Cousins. Someone will overpay for him after he's established himself as a pest and dirtbag.

I'm not suggesting we target Nick Cousins this offseason. What I want them to start doing is finding guys like Nick Cousins back in the summer of 2022, who's entering his prime and who's ready to "break out" as a role player. I only use Nick Cousins as an example of good pro scouting.

 

[bicboi64]

I'm not suggesting we target Nick Cousins this offseason. What I want them to start doing is finding guys like a Nick Cousins back in the summer of 2022, who's entering his prime and who's ready to "break out" as a role player.

100% agree. I love the idea of our pro scouting finding one of those UFA and having them step up for us. I'm hoping someone like Travis Boyd, Stenlund, or Duhaime

 

[Senator Stanley]

100% agree. I love the idea of our pro scouting finding one of those UFA and having them step up for us. I'm hoping someone like Travis Boyd, Stenlund, or Duhaime

All three guys who I wouldn't have been able to identify, because I'm not a pro scout being paid by an NHL team to identify these types of players (or, @bicboi64).

 

[JD1]

So is that a critique of those who value Brannstrom at 1.4 or a critique of the Athletic's model?

There are some curious ratings in there, Tanev for example at a Market value of 7.5 while his former Teammate Rasmus Andersson is valued at 3.3. Can't imagine too many GMs agreeing with that. Cody Ceci valued at 4.9 while Pietrangelo is valued at 4.4 (a minus 4.4 differential, maybe we can trade Chabot for him?)

I'm not sure what the Athletic model is doing to derive those numbers, So I don't really know how to critique them other than to say there are some guys where it doesn't intuitively make sense to me. I certainly don't value Cody Ceci (4.9 Market Value) or Brannstrom (5 MV) more than Brett Pesce (4.2 MV) Sieder (3.8 MV), K'andre Miller (3.4 MV), Trouba (2.2 MV), Ciernek (2.1 MV) Sergachev (1.3 MV), Byram (1.3 MV) . Do you?

it's neither

it's simply highlighting that there's a commonly held view here that clashes with those views held by some folks in the hockey biz.

 

[Micklebot]

it's neither

it's simply highlighting that there's a commonly held view here that clashes with those views held by some folks in the hockey biz.

Based on the examples I gave, it looks like there's a lot of commonly held views here and elsewhere that clash with those specific folks in the hockey biz' view.

I guess what I was trying to get at indirectly, is I won't hold it against anyone if they disagree with how the athletic player cards rate a players market value, since there seems to be some pretty glaring anomalies with the actual markets behaviour...

 

[Hale The Villain]

I'm not suggesting we target Nick Cousins this offseason. What I want them to start doing is finding guys like Nick Cousins back in the summer of 2022, who's entering his prime and who's ready to "break out" as a role player. I only use Nick Cousins as an example of good pro scouting.

Completely agree with this.

Canucks under Patrik Allvin are a perfect example of using smart pro-scouting to find gems that outperform their contracts. They added Joshua, Lafferty, Blueger and Suter for almost nothing in assets and all for a combined 5M in cap space.

They ended up providing excellent play in their bottom 6 and now all of those guys will probably get bloated UFA contracts from teams desperate for depth. If they are smart they'll walk away from most of them and replace them with new underappreciated players who just need an opportunity.

Compare that to the Canucks' old strategy under Benning to sign bottom 6 players at inflated UFA salaries to improve the team's depth. Paid 8M for Beagle, Roussel and Schaller after they had broken out on other team. They never lived up to their contracts and then they later paid to dump their contracts in the OEL trade, which also blew up in their face.

 

[BondraTime]

So is that a critique of those who value Brannstrom at 1.4 or a critique of the Athletic's model?

There are some curious ratings in there, Tanev for example at a Market value of 7.5 while his former Teammate Rasmus Andersson is valued at 3.3. Can't imagine too many GMs agreeing with that. Cody Ceci valued at 4.9 while Pietrangelo is valued at 4.4 (a minus 4.4 differential, maybe we can trade Chabot for him?)

I'm not sure what the Athletic model is doing to derive those numbers, So I don't really know how to critique them other than to say there are some guys where it doesn't intuitively make sense to me. I certainly don't value Cody Ceci (4.9 Market Value) or Brannstrom (5 MV) more than Brett Pesce (4.2 MV) Sieder (3.8 MV), K'andre Miller (3.4 MV), Trouba (2.2 MV), Ciernek (2.1 MV) Sergachev (1.3 MV), Byram (1.3 MV) . Do you?

They are horrendous and absolutely have zero bearing on what’s actually valued.

 

[Cosmix]

Chychrun was a terrible fit but he’s still a very good offensive D when he plays the left side.

Branny has the heart of a lion but he’s overmatched physically, worth keeping at 1.5M or less.

Hamonic needs to be bought out

Zub was hurt all year he’s good

JBD is improving a ton with game time. He’s a great option for 5-7 @800K.

I like the look of our LD lineup with Chabot, Sanderson and Chychrun. I would like to keep all 3 of them and run the 3 sets of D at equal ice time. PP and PK time would be allocated to those who are playing best at the time.

On RD we have only 1 top 4 RD: Zub. Branny at $1.5M -$2M as 3 RD would be OK assuming we upgrade to a big tough defensively sound RD. Bernard-Docker still looks like a 6-7D to me; he is not physical and lacks offensive skills with the puck; I would like to replace him.

Harmonic is done; might have to retain him as 7th RD for next season only for his low salary rather than a buy-out.

 

[Tuna99]

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Giroux
Jenner - Pinto - Appleton
Greig - Norris - Batherson
Kelly - Kastelic - Boko

Sanderson - Anderson
Chychryn - Zub
Kleven - Jan Ruta

Markstrom
Korpisalo

Ott: Jenner
CLB: Boston 1st, Mathieu Joseph, Robi Javerventie

Ott: Markstrom, 9th overall
Cal: 7th Overall, Sogaard, JBD, Zach Macewen (Salary dump)
(Calgary drafts Tij Iginla by moving up)

Ott: Ruuta (1yr, $2.75, 33yr, RD)
SJ: Brannstrom

Ott: Rasmus Anderson
Cal: Thomas Chabot, Zach Ostapchuk, 2nd round pick

Sign Mason Appleton 5 x 2.25 million

Can they afford this team not sure? But this team I think would make the playoffs

 

[Cosmix]

So, I think both have their place. You sign PTO like Ennis, Brassard, and Bailey as depth guy, a 13th forward that can step in for injuries and be good in the room for practice, while making sure guys like Ostapchuk and Crookshank need to force their way onto the roster. You go after a player like Cousins to be a more regular player on your 4th line.

We definitely need better pro scouts to get some wins when we sign UFAs and trade for vets.

 

[Cosmix]

Jamie McLennan talking about what to change on coming in hot,

Thinks they need to upgrade a goalie (not committing to one or the other) but suggested something like Forsberg for Jake Allen

Thinks the 4th line should be veterans, guys like Trevor Lewis, Acciari types to help settle things down.

Wallace mentioned Josh Bailey as a guy they had on PTO that might have fit that mold.

So McLennan's take is that the first 3 lines are solid hockey players, the D is fine as is; and that the team played poorly because of one backup goaltender and the three 4th liners?

That seems like a commentator who wants to retain his job by blaming the low salaried guys for the poor team performance and fears blaming the high salaried guys.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Giroux
Jenner - Pinto - Appleton
Greig - Norris - Batherson
Kelly - Kastelic - Boko

Sanderson - Anderson
Chychryn - Zub
Kleven - Jan Ruta

Markstrom
Korpisalo

Ott: Jenner
CLB: Boston 1st, Mathieu Joseph, Robi Javerventie

Ott: Markstrom, 9th overall
Cal: 7th Overall, Sogaard, JBD, Zach Macewen (Salary dump)
(Calgary drafts Tij Iginla by moving up)

Ott: Ruuta (1yr, $2.75, 33yr, RD)
SJ: Brannstrom

Ott: Rasmus Anderson
Cal: Thomas Chabot, Zach Ostapchuk, 2nd round pick

Sign Mason Appleton 5 x 2.25 million

Can they afford this team not sure? But this team I think would make the playoffs

You've somehow managed to make the team worse.

I'd rather keep the 1st and Joseph > Jenner
I'd rather not bring in another albatross goaltender in Markstrom
Ruuta is a fine acquisition, but there's four-five other defenseman available with similar capabilities
Rasmus Anderson is not as good as that package, not by a mile.
In what world does Mason Appleton? get a 5 year contract.

Sorry Tuna, back to the drawing board.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

I really don’t wanna see a 4th line of Kelly- Kastelic-Katchouk/MacEwen/Boko

 

[Yak]

I really don’t wanna see a 4th line of Kelly- Kastelic-Katchouk/MacEwen/Boko

Fire them all off to the moon, is not working and has not worked in past 4 years.Bunch of shrubs and scubs on this line.

 

[JD1]

They are horrendous and absolutely have zero bearing on what’s actually valued.

Well that's the thing isn't it. Understanding what's valued. Understanding what's a scoring chance versus what isn't. Understanding when your opponent made a super play and is a world class player versus you f***ing up.

The initial view of hf sens was that he couldn't skate well enough for a smaller guy. Now one of the views seems to be he can't win puck battles.

There's stats pumped for everything and I referred yesterday to silly stat examples. What we have with the Athletic is a stat model showing value relative to a contract. Ok so I can understand that you don't agree with the stat model, but if you go down the roster of players, there's not very many that outperformed their contracts and the worst underperformer relative to contract was Chabot and their model does seem to identify the guys in both categories

 

[BondraTime]

Well that's the thing isn't it. Understanding what's valued. Understanding what's a scoring chance versus what isn't. Understanding when your opponent made a super play and is a world class player versus you f***ing up.

The initial view of hf sens was that he couldn't skate well enough for a smaller guy. Now one of the views seems to be he can't win puck battles.

There's stats pumped for everything and I referred yesterday to silly stat examples. What we have with the Athletic is a stat model showing value relative to a contract. Ok so I can understand that you don't agree with the stat model, but if you go down the roster of players, there's not very many that outperformed their contracts and the worst underperformer relative to contract was Chabot and their model does seem to identify the guys in both categories

Chabot did not have a good year, I have no issues with that.

Saying that Branstrom played at a 1 million dollar level higher than Pietrangelo, that’s how you know that the method isn’t worth the time to read it.

It’s taking abusing and misrepresenting advanced stats to a whole new level, and obviously doesn’t take a lot of what matters into account.

The worst was Norris by a huge margin in that model, which I would agree with aside from valuing him as a 2.5 million dollar player. That’s just plain stupid, as a large majority of those valuations are.