Senators Off-Season Discussion 2024 Mega Thread

[Senovision]

The difference would be goaltending mostly and Boston's physical play.
Boston has two excellent goalies. .916 save %
Ottawa .....890 save %

 

[Micklebot]

I think, at the very least, it is arguable that our best players were our best players. For example, and it is not the best model, but it is easy to navigate, and it should give a rough estimate, Evolving-Hockey’s WAR model says our best players were, more or less, our best players...

1. T. Stutzle - 2.4 WAR
2. B. Tkachuk - 2.3 WAR
3. J. Sanderson - 1.9 WAR
4. J. Chychrun - 1.5 WAR
5. T. Chabot - 1.5 WAR
6. A. Zub - 1.4 WAR
7. R. Grieg - 1.4 WAR
8. D. Batherson - 1.2 WAR

Total = 13.6 WAR


If we look at say, Boston's best players (for a benchmark), they look like this...

1. D. Pastrnak - 3.9 WAR
2. B. Marchand - 2.8 WAR
3. C. McAvoy - 2.1 WAR
4. P. Zacha - 1.6 WAR
5. H. Lindholm - 1.3 WAR
6. D. Forbort - 1.2 WAR
7. M. Geekie - 1.2 WAR
8. D. Heinen - 1.1 WAR

Total = 15.2 WAR

Boston is a bit better, but over 8 players, a 1.6 WAR difference is not too crazy, and it should not equate to 30+ standing point difference. The difference is likely coming from elsewhere.

Curious to see how WAR compares to the Athletic's Net rating system

OTTAWA
1. B. Tkachuk: + 17 Net GSVA (2.3 WAR)
2. J. Sanderson: + 11 Net (1.9 WAR)
3. T. Stutzle: + 8 Net (2.4 WAR)
4. S. Pinto: + 7 Net (N.R WAR)
5. A. Zub: +6 Net (1.4 WAR)
6. D. Batherson: +5 Net (1.2 WAR)
7. C. Giroux +5 Net (N.R. WAR)
8. E. Brannstrom +3 Net (N.R. WAR)
---------------------------------------
Total top 8 +62

9. T. Chabot: +1 Net (1.5 WAR)
10. R. Grieg: 0 Net (1.4 WAR)
11 M. Joseph -1 Net (N.R. WAR)
12. J Norris -2 Net (N.R. WAR)
13. J. Chychrun: -2 Net (1.5 WAR)


BOSTON
1. D. Pastrnak: +22 Net (3.9 WAR)
2. C. McAvoy: +14 Net (2.1 WAR)
3.B. Marchand: +9 Net (2.8 WAR)
4. H. Lindholm: +8 Net (1.3 WAR)
5. P. Zacha: +5 Net (1.6 WAR)
6. J. DeBrusk: +4 Net (N.R. WAR)
7. C. Coyle: +3 Net (N.R. WAR)
8 J. Van Reimsdyk: +2 (N.R. WAR)

-------------------------------------
Total top 8 +67

9. D. Heinen: + 2 Net (1.1 WAR)
10. B Carlo: +2 Net (N.R. WAR)
11. T Frederic: +1 Net (N.R. WAR)
12. M. Geekie: 0 Net (1.2 WAR)
13. D. Forbort 0 Net (1.2 WAR)

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Curious to see how WAR compares to the Athletic's Net rating system

OTTAWA
1. B. Tkachuk: + 17 Net GSVA (2.3 WAR)
2. J. Sanderson: + 11 Net (1.9 WAR)
3. T. Stutzle: + 8 Net (2.4 WAR)
4. S. Pinto: + 7 Net (N.R WAR)
5. A. Zub: +6 Net (1.4 WAR)
6. D. Batherson: +5 Net (1.2 WAR)
7. C. Giroux +5 Net (N.R. WAR)
8. E. Brannstrom +3 Net (N.R. WAR)
---------------------------------------
Total top 8 +62

9. T. Chabot: +1 Net (1.5 WAR)
10. R. Grieg: 0 Net (1.4 WAR)
11 M. Joseph -1 Net (N.R. WAR)
12. J Norris -2 Net (N.R. WAR)
13. J. Chychrun: -2 Net (1.5 WAR)


BOSTON
1. D. Pastrnak: +22 Net (3.9 WAR)
2. C. McAvoy: +14 Net (2.1 WAR)
3.B. Marchand: +9 Net (2.8 WAR)
4. H. Lindholm: +8 Net (1.3 WAR)
5. P. Zacha: +5 Net (1.6 WAR)
6. J. DeBrusk: +4 Net (N.R. WAR)
7. C. Coyle: +3 Net (N.R. WAR)
8 J. Van Reimsdyk: +2 (N.R. WAR)

-------------------------------------
Total top 8 +67

9. D. Heinen: + 2 Net (1.1 WAR)
10. B Carlo: +2 Net (N.R. WAR)
11. T Frederic: +1 Net (N.R. WAR)
12. M. Geekie: 0 Net (1.2 WAR)
13. D. Forbort 0 Net (1.2 WAR)

Boston’s 9-13 crushed us, not insignificant

 

[Cosmix]

We really need to fix our goalie situation bad. The Oilers remind me of our team and even when we made the playoffs back in the day.

Goaltending is holding us back. This Achilles hill is going to haunt us till it solved. This year you could literally see the team get so deflated with the goals. It was like what do I have to do to get a save out of you. We should go our goals and you give them up faster than we can score them.


We don't want to be in a position like the Oilers are. Skinner is horrible. You have to put five plus goals in the net in order to win a game with him. Even then, sometimes it's not enough. He was so bad yesterday that they were picking him apart. They were some grade a shots but I mean it's the same as last year. The dude can't stop nothing. Thank God they have two of the best players in the world that can score a lot, but you can't rely on that either. Without goaltending you're not going anywhere. Imagine having those two on your team and you can't win a cup because your goaltending sucks so bad. I would not doubt if McDavid wanted to leave because the goaltending is so horrible.


I kind of feel like some of our players are going to be like that in the future that if we don't get some better goaltending here, people might want out. We are so handcuffed to Korpi That I can't see a way out unless they buy their way out of this mess. Moving forward with him is going to almost be like a guarantee of not making the playoffs. Can we afford another season of this going on is what. Staios needs to really ask himself!

It's going to be a major undertaking but besides a head coach, the goaltending is a biggest change we need here. We have not been able to rely on a goaltender to win us games ever. Just having that will elevate the team's play. So crucial to get this situation churned around. Seriously, at this point I would give up our first round pick for a good goaltender. Heck, I might even throw someone in from the core.

Overall team defence is holding us back.

We definitely need a better goaltender, bigger defencemen who can hit and remove opposition players from in front of the net, and forwards who will be required by the coaching staff to take a man in our D zone, block shots, hit opponents, hustle on the back check.

 

[Cosmix]

It's paywalled, so might need to summarize here;

Tkachuk Market value 10.2, salary 8.2 diff +2
Sanderson 9,.9,+8.1
Stutzle 7, 8.4, -1.4
Pinto 6.3, 0?, +6.3 (not sure what they are doing here... should be +5.5
Zub 6.4, 4.6, +1.8
Batherson 5.8, 5, +.8
Giroux 5.6, 6.5, -.9
Brannstrom 5, 2, +3
Chabot 4.2, 8, -3.8
Greig 3.5, 9, +2.6
Joseph 3.2, 3, +.2
Norris 2.5, 8, -5.5
Chychrun 2.4, 4.6, -2.2
Katchouk 1.2, .8, +.4
Kelly .9, .8, +.1
Kastelic .8, .8, 0
JBD .8, .8, 0
MacEwen .8, .8, 0
Kubalik .8, 2.5, -1.7
Hamonic .8, 1.1, -.3

So, totaled up we're +8.7 which seems like we should have been better than we were, but that's assuming average is 0 which I can't (won't do the work to) confirm.

Thanks Micklebot for the summary!

 

[Cosmix]

Norris was underperforming. He was pacing at 50. He probably needs to be at 65+.

Stuetzle underperformed but for me part of the issue there is I think we need him to really outperform the contract.

Chatbot badly underperformed his deal.

And the goalies.

Over performers I'd have Sanderson and Pinto but both of those change dramatically next year. Tkachuk and Brannstrom.

Chychrun performed to his deal but his deal is only 4.6. we're talking signing him at a much larger number and that could be trouble.

I think everyone else was kinda on par. Being just on par for JBD was kind of disappointing. He played ok but didn't elevate beyond just barely in the league.

At the end of the day, you need you best players to be your best players and they weren't. Hard to do anything in the league when your 1C, 2C, 1D and 1G all have injury riddled down seasons (except korpi who was just down)

I tend to agree with your assessment. I gave Norris a pass due to injuries and recovery period.

It will be interesting to see what Staios does this summer to upgrade the coaching staff and the roster to get this team into the playoffs next season.

Kleven is big and can move the puck. Brannstrom is small and can move the puck.
We need more of one of those.

I am hoping Kleven is ready for NHL deployment next season. He will add size and hopefully physicality that we currently do not have on the D. I miss Volchenkov, Carkner and other bid D who can play a strong defensive physical game while also adding toughness.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

WAR this

 

[Cosmix]

I’d be very surprised if he was offered his QO, highly doubt the team will be keeping him around at that amount. He’s likely one of the guys to be moved on from.

He’s not a top 4 guy, he’s not a defensive or physical player, he isn’t an offensive player, he isn’t a top PK guy or PP guy. You don’t want him out at the end of a game to protect a lead or out with the goalie pulled to score. He has no real role.

He’s not the kind of player you want on your bottom pair, and if you’re actually playing him 20 minutes a night in your top 4 rather than the 16:30 he got this year, you’re likely not going to be happy.

I don't mind keeping Brannstrom at #6 D at $1M but his qualifying offer to sign with us is too high; I would rather use those $$$ to sign a big tough defensively strong D for the top 4.

 

[Cosmix]

My wild but ideal "plausible" scenario

Out - Kubalik, Brannstrom, Chychrun, Forsberg, Hamonic, dead cap, cap raise = ~23.5M

In - new contracts - Sanderson, Pinto, Kelly, Katchouk = ~11.5M

~12M to work with

Most of these calculations are just my wild assumptions (I have Chychrun/Forsberg traded without cap coming in, Brannstrom not re-signed and Pinto signed at 4.5M and Kelly at 1M, while Hamonic being bought out).
_____

Needs

RHD - Pesce, Roy, Tanev, DeMelo, Carrier, Walker (4 - 6.5M)

Middle 6 Veteran F - Henrique, Stephenson, Bertuzzi, Teravainen, Labanc, DeBrusk, T Johnson, Roslovic, Beauviller... (3.5 - 5.5M)

Goalie - Brossoit, Stolarz, Driedger, Wedgewood, Lankinen
_____

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Batherson
Norris-Pinto-Giroux
Joseph-Greig-Labanc(3M)
Katchouk-Kastelic-Kelly
Ostapchuk

Sanderson-Pesce/Roy(6M) - overpay to sign
Chabot-Zub
Kleven-JBD

Korpisalo, Brossoit (2.5M)

Who did you get in the Chychrun trade?

No to Katchouk; I hope we can do better (i.e., bigger, more physicality, playoff hockey player).

 

[Hale The Villain]

I’d be very surprised if he was offered his QO, highly doubt the team will be keeping him around at that amount. He’s likely one of the guys to be moved on from.

He’s not a top 4 guy, he’s not a defensive or physical player, he isn’t an offensive player, he isn’t a top PK guy or PP guy. You don’t want him out at the end of a game to protect a lead or out with the goalie pulled to score. He has no real role.

He’s not the kind of player you want on your bottom pair, and if you’re actually playing him 20 minutes a night in your top 4 rather than the 16:30 he got this year, you’re likely not going to be happy.

Talk about missing the forest for the trees.

All this talk about role ignores that he's pretty effective at what he does, which is being a safe defenseman who moves the puck up ice well and doesn't make many mistakes at even strength.

We'll probably trade him or just let him walk because Kleven is a gamer and should be considered a lock for the 3rd pairing LD spot, but if Kleven weren't around then it would be an easy decision to keep Brannstrom.

 

[Cosmix]

Talk about missing the forest for the trees.

All this talk about role ignores that he's pretty effective at what he does, which is being a safe defenseman who moves the puck up ice well and doesn't make many mistakes at even strength.

We'll probably trade him or just let him walk because Kleven is a gamer and should be considered a lock for the 3rd pairing LD spot, but if Kleven weren't around then it would be an easy decision to keep Brannstrom.

If one of our 3 LDs could be shifted to RD, we could create the LD space for Kleven. I think Sanderson might be the guy to make that shift as he is younger, less fixed in his ways, and appears to be the better D man of the 3.

Chabot - Zub
Chychrun - Sanderson
Kleven - Big Tough Physical UFA

 

[DrEasy]

Year after year we don't seem to learn the lesson that depth is important, that injuries will happen. Every year we think of Brannstrom as expendable, and next thing you know he's playing in our top 4. And now we want to get rid of him?

Every year we talk about how hard it is to bring free agents here, and how willing we are to overpay to get players, and here we have a player under our own control, and we'd rather let Brann go. If you think $2M or even $3M is too much for him, just wait to see what we have to pay to get those free agent Ds we so covet, if we ever get to bring them here that is.

This is Duclair all over again.

 

[Loach]

If one of our 3 LDs could be shifted to RD, we could create the LD space for Kleven. I think Sanderson might be the guy to make that shift as he is younger, less fixed in his ways, and appears to be the better D man of the 3.

Chabot - Zub
Chychrun - Sanderson
Kleven - Big Tough Physical UFA

....or maybe trade Chabot and Chychrun and build a real D corp? No. You're right. Brake up the only pair that works, move the best D man out of position, keep 1 overpaid plug, re-up another plug so we have 2 overpaid plugs and then magically find the money for the type of player that every team wants. Genius!

 

[GCK]

Year after year we don't seem to learn the lesson that depth is important, that injuries will happen. Every year we think of Brannstrom as expendable, and next thing you know he's playing in our top 4. And now we want to get rid of him?

Every year we talk about how hard it is to bring free agents here, and how willing we are to overpay to get players, and here we have a player under our own control, and we'd rather let Brann go. If you think $2M or even $3M is too much for him, just wait to see what we have to pay to get those free agent Ds we so covet, if we ever get to bring them here that is.

This is Duclair all over again.

So where are you playing Brannstrom at over 2M.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

What would be your next season team?

I've posted several iterations on different threads, but basically I would sign a free agent top-4 D and bring in 1-2 veteran bottom-6ers like Martinook, maybe a Connor Brown reunion. Low stakes signings.

In terms of trades, Chychyun I would hold on to until the deadline unless there is deal around a player in similar age/contract situation. Ullmark is enticing, but I don't think he waives to come to Ottawa and honestly strengthening Boston's D core shouldn't be something we should do.

Goaltending, simple - bring in a guy like Brossoit, Stolarz and look to flip Forsberg. Korpisalo is going to be an anchor that hopefully has a bounceback season.

Tkachuk - Pinto - Norris
Joseph - Stutzle - Giroux
FA - Grieg - Batherson
Kelly - FA - Crookshank
Ostapchuk/MacEwen/Kastelic

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - FA
Kleven - FA
JBD

Korpisalo
Brossoit

 

[Cosmix]

....or maybe trade Chabot and Chychrun and build a real D corp? No. You're right. Brake up the only pair that works, move the best D man out of position, keep 1 overpaid plug, re-up another plug so we have 2 overpaid plugs and then magically find the money for the type of player that every team wants. Genius!

Thanks for the compliment!

 

[DrEasy]

So where are you playing Brannstrom at over 2M.

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - DeMelo
Kleven - Brannstrom
JBD

then WHEN Chabot gets injured, he plays in our top 4, as per tradition.

 

[PlayOn]

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - DeMelo
Kleven - Brannstrom
JBD

then WHEN Chabot gets injured, he plays in our top 4, as per tradition.

Should we continue to run a defensive core with basically no playoff experience?

I’m assuming whichever RD we acquire will have some. But Chabot, Sanderson and Zub don’t and they’re obviously going to be here. So I really don’t know that it’s wise to run a 5-6-7 of Kleven, Branny and JBD.

I don’t have strong opinions on who needs to go next year. But I tend to think Kleven is an important piece and the more NHL experience we can get him the better. I don’t know that it makes sense to trade JBD, because while he’s not outstanding, he’s a right shot and we are lacking in options there.

 

[Big Muddy]

The difference would be goaltending mostly and Boston's physical play.
Boston has two excellent goalies. .916 save %
Ottawa .....890 save %

Boston are ferocious in their back checking. The emphasis is on the team, their systems, team D and commitment versus individuals.

 

[DrEasy]

Should we continue to run a defensive core with basically no playoff experience?

I’m assuming whichever RD we acquire will have some. But Chabot, Sanderson and Zub don’t and they’re obviously going to be here. So I really don’t know that it’s wise to run a 5-6-7 of Kleven, Branny and JBD.

I don’t have strong opinions on who needs to go next year. But I tend to think Kleven is an important piece and the more NHL experience we can get him the better. I don’t know that it makes sense to trade JBD, because while he’s not outstanding, he’s a right shot and we are lacking in options there.

If I had to remove one of the three though and replace with an experienced bottom 6 guy, it would be Kleven. Let him marinate some more in the AHL, and besides, WHEN Chabot gets injured he'll be called up anyway. Depth is a good thing to have.

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - DeMelo
Brannstrom - DeMelo Jr.
JBD

In any case, I was replying to someone who was worried about Brann's salary, that's why I only added DeMelo initially. I still think it's good enough (to make the playoffs, not much more than that), as long as we have better goaltending, we get neutral luck with health and we continue the better defensive play that we saw under Jacques.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Pretty simple to me. You get rid of Chych and Branstrom. Chych isn’t needed, and Branstrom costs too much for a bottom pairing guy, and isn’t great as a bottom pairing guys as he doesn’t bring any elements that I think the team needs an injection of. Love the heart, but he also needs a chance elsewhere in my opinion.

You bring in Kleven out of camp for salary and to play with the vet. Kleven already has a couple years of college to go with a full season of AHL. He looked solid in his late season call up.

Then you bring in two RD, one top 4 guy who can play the position and the role of steady defender to Chabby’s transition and offence.

You bring in one bottom pair RD vet who plays heavy and can defend. Preferably with some playoff experience as well.

JBD is the 7th D who continues to develop along with Kleven.

We need more size and grit on D.

 

[Big Muddy]

My wild but ideal "plausible" scenario

Out - Kubalik, Brannstrom, Chychrun, Forsberg, Hamonic, dead cap, cap raise = ~23.5M

In - new contracts - Sanderson, Pinto, Kelly, Katchouk = ~11.5M

~12M to work with

Most of these calculations are just my wild assumptions (I have Chychrun/Forsberg traded without cap coming in, Brannstrom not re-signed and Pinto signed at 4.5M and Kelly at 1M, while Hamonic being bought out).
_____

Needs

RHD - Pesce, Roy, Tanev, DeMelo, Carrier, Walker (4 - 6.5M)

Middle 6 Veteran F - Henrique, Stephenson, Bertuzzi, Teravainen, Labanc, DeBrusk, T Johnson, Roslovic, Beauviller... (3.5 - 5.5M)

Goalie - Brossoit, Stolarz, Driedger, Wedgewood, Lankinen
_____

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Batherson
Norris-Pinto-Giroux
Joseph-Greig-Labanc(3M)
Katchouk-Kastelic-Kelly
Ostapchuk

Sanderson-Pesce/Roy(6M) - overpay to sign
Chabot-Zub
Kleven-JBD

Korpisalo, Brossoit (2.5M)

I applied cap hits to your roster.

I had to make a few minor adjustments as follows:

1. You had a 21-player roster, so I added a 7D to get you to a 22 player roster
2. You forgot White’s buyout which is actually a cap “credit” next season.

Your roster was cap compliant. $86,125,714

If you pull in the players under contract for next year from CapFriendly, the players not under contract becomes redundant/unnecessary info.

 

[aragorn]

To Boston: Chychrun LD & Forsberg G ($7.235 mil out)
To Ottawa: Ullmark G ($5 mil in) - difference $2.235

Sign UFA: Matt Roy RD ($5.8 mil in @ 5yrs)
Out: Kubalik LW, Katchouk LW & Brannstrom LD ($5.2 mil out)

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
Stutzle - Pinto ($4) - Giroux
Joseph - Greig - Sokolov
Ostapchuk - Kastelic - MacEwan/Kelly - $48 mil

Chabot - Roy ($5.8 mil)
Sanderson - Zub
Kleven - JBD/Hamonic - $28.5 mil

Ullmark - Korpisalo - $9 mil = $85.5 mil

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

knoblach on Edmton was such a great hire - obviously their players are playing great.

When Edmonton was about to melt down and the town was in full panic he came on like he’s Bob Marleys blunt guy he’s so calm and chill it was like he came from another planet - this dude was the perfect choice at the right time.

Too bad our rookie GM didn’t have what it takes to do the same thing Edmonton and Vancouver did. Instead he went with a substitute teacher, and not a whole lot of improvement ensued…and next training camp is another beginning…… bringing in Berube, for the last 57 games this past season would have much more solid results to carry over into next season, than what transpired with the substitute teacher.

 

[lancepitlick]

Year after year we don't seem to learn the lesson that depth is important, that injuries will happen. Every year we think of Brannstrom as expendable, and next thing you know he's playing in our top 4. And now we want to get rid of him?

Every year we talk about how hard it is to bring free agents here, and how willing we are to overpay to get players, and here we have a player under our own control, and we'd rather let Brann go. If you think $2M or even $3M is too much for him, just wait to see what we have to pay to get those free agent Ds we so covet, if we ever get to bring them here that is.

This is Duclair all over again.

I agree. If he wants $4M, show him the door. But the bargain bin guys they've had in the bottom 2 have been even worse than Brannstrom (Hainsey, Hamonic, like 5 other plugs in the last 5 years). If he's $2M then bring him back. He might actually improve still. I'm not attached to the guy, but unless you have something better then he's fine as a #6/7 D that can move up the lineup due to injuriesp