Sell me on Analytics... then sell me on ours

[Gallagbi]

Should also acknowledge that the analytics teams care about and the analytics fans/bloggers care about aren't the same. Like, a team doesn't care about RAPM, WAR, GAR etc. because it doesn't convey any useful information to them. If I say player B has a WAR of 2.6 it doesn't tell you anything that would help with team building or evaluation. Fans care about these numbers because their interest is in trying to find out who the best players that they're not watching regularly are. If they were building a team they would have a different purview.

I think this is a really important and completely missed point by some

You can see it with people assuming possession is automatically good and to be held at all cost.

 

[ECYCLE]

Those who think that analytics is useless for evaluation in any sport, including hockey are stubborn and shortsighted. Eye test is incredibly fallible due to bias and no matter how objective you think you are, you're going to see whatever you want to see to fit your narratives.

Keeping in mind that hockey analytics is still incomplete and evolving, current hockey analytics is mostly based off observations of regular season statistics. Playoffs analytics is harder to come by for players, especially given the smaller samples. As all of you know, rules change in the playoffs and the majority of the available data doesn't make perfect account for that. Thus the data is skewed. Hockey analytics isn't perfect but you're fooling yourself and putting yourself at a disadvantage if you don't utilize it.

 

[Donnie740]

Correct.

Years ago, Boston seemingly had no problem dumping the puck in the corner, handing possession back over to Jake Gardiner, and absolutely hammering him to the point he was visibly uncomfortable handling the puck for the rest of the series.

On paper that's "bad"

In real life Boston wins the series after a game 7 meltdown by Jake Gardiner.

Sounds just like what the Canadiens did to Rasmus Sandin this year.

 

[Donnie740]

Eye test is incredibly fallible due to bias and no matter how objective you think you are, you're going to see whatever you want to see to fit your narratives.

Analytics make the situation worse because statistics get cherry picked in order to "confirm" foolishly misguided player assessments that are incorrect.

Keefe and Dubas believe Rasmus Sandin is an NHL-ready defenceman. Analytics "confirm" their assessment and convince themselves that Sandin is the man.

In reality, Sandin is way too slow and soft to be an NHL defenceman. This was blatantly obvious to anyone watching him in this series.

 

[ECYCLE]

Analytics make the situation worse because statistics get cherry picked in order to "confirm" foolishly misguided player assessments that are incorrect.

Keefe and Dubas believe Rasmus Sandin is an NHL-ready defenceman. Analytics "confirm" their assessment and convince themselves that Sandin is the man.

In reality, Sandin is way too slow and soft to be an NHL defenceman. This was blatantly obvious to anyone watching him in this series.

So what you're saying is that the eye test is objectively better then analytics.

 

[robertmac43]

So I work part-time in soccer analytics. Obviously a different sport, however, there are many similarities in how analytics are viewed. One thing I would say is no one in the profession thinks analytics are the one and the only way of doing things. Advanced stats are best used when they are paired with the eye test and final scores. They help to tell the story.

You may lose some games where you have more xGF, now the job is figuring out why? The shot might be in a high danger spot, however, is it a good shooting spot for the individual? Did they shoot at the blocker or glove? Was there traffic in front? Basically, you got to go back through and break it down again to truly get the benefit of the stat.

 

[ECYCLE]

So I work part-time in soccer analytics. Obviously a different sport, however, there are many similarities in how analytics are viewed. One thing I would say is no one in the profession thinks analytics are the one and the only way of doing things. Advanced stats are best used when they are paired with the eye test and final scores. They help to tell the story.

You may lose some games where you have more xGF, now the job is figuring out why? The shot might be in a high danger spot, however, is it a good shooting spot for the individual? Did they shoot at the blocker or glove? Was there traffic in front? Basically, you got to go back through and break it down again to truly get the benefit of the stat.

Absolutely. Even more so when considering that advanced stats for hockey and analytics is still new and so very incomplete. It's just so dumb to say to do away with all analytics.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Analytics make the situation worse because statistics get cherry picked in order to "confirm" foolishly misguided player assessments that are incorrect.

Keefe and Dubas believe Rasmus Sandin is an NHL-ready defenceman. Analytics "confirm" their assessment and convince themselves that Sandin is the man.

In reality, Sandin is way too slow and soft to be an NHL defenceman. This was blatantly obvious to anyone watching him in this series.

Correction he is tough as nails but he is very slow on straight line speed (kinda like Mitch but slightly different stride) .. you will realize this as you watch him more ... but your analysis is on target .. Keefer knows very very well what Sandin's issue is as does Dubie .. but they did not realize it would catch up to him in a playoff game .. if he does not FIX it then people are not gonna like to hear this but he may end up being a flop

 

[AllDay28]

Dubas literally went against analytics to appease the idiots of the fan base and the non analytical guys laid an egg. So ppl come and bash .. you guessed it.. analytics.

also fun fact; goals, assists, shots, saves, hits, are all analytics. I know you guys don’t like em but ya

 

[AllDay28]

Also sell me on this ... anti analytics

if the “eye test” works.. how come none of you are millionaire gamblers? You see with your eyes the talent/problems without numbers, should be making a killing gambling cause you obviously know so much. Just curious why you’re all on HF and not living lavish life’s shredding bookies.

 

[Donnie740]

Correction he is tough as nails but he is very slow on straight line speed (kinda like Mitch but slightly different stride) .. you will realize this as you watch him more ... but your analysis is on target .. Keefer knows very very well what Sandin's issue is as does Dubie .. but they did not realize it would catch up to him in a playoff game .. if he does not FIX it then people are not gonna like to hear this but he may end up being a flop

Rasmus Sandin is “tough as nails” BAHAHAHAHAHAHA

You can’t be serious with such a ridiculous comment. Sandin shies away from contact at every opportunity.

Five games in the playoffs and Sandin delivered exactly TWO (2) hits.

Or are you relying on analytics to show how many “expected hits” the rugged Sandin had?

 

[robertmac43]

Five games in the playoffs and Sandin delivered exactly TWO (2) hits.

He is always willing to take a hit though? When did hits becoming the only metric for toughness?

 

[Donnie740]

Dubas literally went against analytics to appease the idiots of the fan base and the non analytical guys laid an egg. So ppl come and bash .. you guessed it.. analytics.

also fun fact; goals, assists, shots, saves, hits, are all analytics. I know you guys don’t like em but ya

Joe Thornton is a lifetime loser who’s never won a big game. I don’t need analytics to know that he consistently choked in the playoffs every year with some very good SJ teams.

The fact that Dubas expected a guy like this to provide “leadership” just proves how clueless he is at building a hockey team.

 

[AllDay28]

Rasmus Sandin is “tough as nails” BAHAHAHAHAHAHA

You can’t be serious with such a ridiculous comment. Sandin shies away from contact at every opportunity.

Five games in the playoffs and Sandin delivered exactly TWO (2) hits.

Or are you relying on analytics to show how many “expected hits” the rugged Sandin had?

Hedman has 4 total hits. That human eraser ..

 

[AllDay28]

Joe Thornton is a lifetime loser who’s never won a big game. I don’t need analytics to know that he consistently choked in the playoffs every year with some very good SJ teams.

The fact that Dubas expected a guy like this to provide “leadership” just proves how clueless he is at building a hockey team.

so like I asked.. how much money you make gambling? You know so much. Tell me now who’s winning the cup? And let’s see your bet on it.

 

[AllDay28]

Hedman - 4 hits in 8 games
Sandin - 2 hits in 5 games
Matthews - 25 hits in 7 games
Marner - 9 hits in 7 games

human erasers

 

[Donnie740]

He is always willing to take a hit though? When did hits becoming the only metric for toughness?

Like when he pulled up and turned the puck over when he saw Corey Perry coming in on the forecheck?

 

[Gallagbi]

Like when he pulled up and turned the puck over when he saw Corey Perry coming in on the forecheck?

View attachment 442322

This is the dump to Thornton which isn't handled, right?

Problem on that play isn't taking the hit, it's the execution of the pass/receiver for the easy out. Similar to the other giveaway

 

[Gallagbi]

Keefe's comment in the press conference on going back to watch scoring chances immediately after a game to tell the story probably says a decent amount of what they're trying to track. He also mentioned how his job is to help generate more opportunities.

 

[Donnie740]

so like I asked.. how much money you make gambling? You know so much. Tell me now who’s winning the cup? And let’s see your bet on it.

Gambling on sports is as foolish as evaluating players with statistics instead of actually watching them play.

 

[AllDay28]

Gambling on sports is as foolish as evaluating players with statistics instead of actually watching them play.

oh so you don’t win any bets and you don’t know what you’re talking about. Gotcha.

your eyes so good. Can’t actually profit off them tho

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Rasmus Sandin is “tough as nails” BAHAHAHAHAHAHA

You can’t be serious with such a ridiculous comment. Sandin shies away from contact at every opportunity.

Five games in the playoffs and Sandin delivered exactly TWO (2) hits.

Or are you relying on analytics to show how many “expected hits” the rugged Sandin had?

I have watched every home game and some away Marlie games he has ever played in .. seen him play in Marlie playoffs too .. he is tough as nails .. my guess he has strongest core on entire Leaf team right now bar none including Zach .. he does not throw a ton of hits but when he does look out you got hit by a train .. I only go off of my EYE test

 

[Joey Hoser]

Imagine running a large company without having an accounting department, or keeping any paperwork or logs of anything, and making every decision based on the feelings of a "good company man".

I don't like analytics. It's boring and I can't be bothered to learn about it. But if you're running the place you have to do it, and you're dumb if you don't.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

If Marner had good Corsi For % and XGF% for this series, then the stat is useless.

I think advanced stats are good for predicting who makes the playoffs.

Not sure it predicts who will be successful in the playoffs.

Playoff Analytics are different than Regular Season analytics.

 

[Pookie]

I kind of thing we have gone a little off topic.

Let's assume... for the moment... that we ALL AGREE that statistics have some value in either player evaluation or adjusting tactics. Things that Dubas himself has spoke of.

Ok? ALL AGREE there is some value in stats.

Now....

What EVIDENCE do we have that Dubas is any good at using them?

I mean if I am running a conference on Analytics in Sports leading to success and I am booking speakers, I sure as hell am not turning to Kyle Dubas.

Billy Beane, yep.
Ian Graham of Liverpool FC, yep.

Kyle Dubas of the Toronto Maple Leafs???

I mean sell me Dubafans... what EVIDENCE is there that this guy is any good at what he professes to be good at?