Proposal: Seattle / Colorado

[Richard88]

Jarnkrok @ 50% ($1m x 1 UFA)
Soucy @ 50% ($1.375m x 2 UFA)
Daccord ($750k x 2 RFA)

for

Martin Kaut (16th overall 2018)
COL 2023 2nd
COL 2022 5th

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Reasoning:

The deadline market will be very saturated and will likely favour buyers, but Seattle nonetheless get some solid pieces for two depth guys on expiring contracts, including a 2nd round pick and an NHL-ready RHS forward prospect who plays their heavy style of game. Not sure how to value Daccord but a mid-round pick or thereabouts seems reasonable.

From Colorado's perspective they essentially fill 3 key needs in one trade by getting:

• a big low-event Dman who can play on the right or left and help the PK (for two playoff runs); 

• a versatile middle 6 forward who can help with RHS faceoffs; and

• a cheap waiver-exempt 3G.

Cap-wise this should work for Colorado, as shown below. If more wiggle-room is needed though then Jarnkrok could be traded via a 3rd team for double retention to shave off another $500k (~$100k in real cash for a late round pick or something).

Click to read more...

 

[Richard88]

Some data for reference:

 

[Richard88]

 

[Richard88]

Soucy's usage this season:

 

[Richard88]

 

[Richard88]

Järnkrok's usage:

 

[Richard88]

 

[RainyCityHockey]

I think Seattle probably wants to keep D'Accord and probably looks to move Driedger at the TDL or during the summer.

Also not a big fan of retaining 50% on guys still under contract for another season.

 

[Mrfenn92]

No for Seattle

 

[Patagonia]

Decent proposal to add depth. AVs are terrible in drafts after the 1st round. I rather trade involve prospects.

 

[Djp]

Thst is heavily in favor of Colorado

soucy at 50% woukd cost a 1st from Colorado

Kaut for a former 1st at this age doesn’t have much value.

Seattle isn’t trading RFAs

 

[Hasbro]

Francis had got to make up ground he lost with his negligence on the Expansion Draft.

 

[Lemonlimey]

Neat idea, probably a no from Seattle. Let’s be real - the Kraken Sakic will pitch for is Donskoi. He likes re-acquiring former Avs. This was disastrous with Nemeth and Soderberg being Colorado’s TDL action last year. But the Avs apparently really love Donkey.

 

[Mike Jones]

Francis had got to make up ground he lost with his negligence on the Expansion Draft.

The problem is he didn't choose enough players (in the expansion draft) who's contracts will be expiring this offseason - which is the type of player a team usually trades away at the deadline. He's only got three guys a playoff bound team would be interested in renting.

So this gives him three chances to hit a serious home run this March 21st.

Will it be three high picks or three strikes?

 

[Hasbro]

The problem is he didn't choose enough players (in the expansion draft) who's contracts will be expiring this offseason

Or make enough side deals.

 

[Mike Jones]

Or make enough side deals.

Agreed. And this March 21st they're going to pay for it and it's going to harm the organization going forward.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

No from this Kraken fan. Kaut is not exactly lighting the AHL on fire and does little to really entice me. A 2nd and 5th for Jarnkrok and Soucy seems a big underpayment more so considering the expectation is that we retain 50% on both players for multiple years.

And almost forgot, Daccord goes the other way too?

Easy no really.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The problem is he didn't choose enough players (in the expansion draft) who's contracts will be expiring this offseason - which is the type of player a team usually trades away at the deadline. He's only got three guys a playoff bound team would be interested in renting.

So this gives him three chances to hit a serious home run this March 21st.

Will it be three high picks or three strikes?

Gonna be hard to hit homeruns as well given the market. There's a plethora of rentals available this year and if you believe Friedman/others Vancouver is partially cleaning house on guys signed through next year as well(Both Miller and Garland apparently available). I think absolute best case scenario for Seattle is a 2nd rounder for Jarnkrok, 3rd rounder for Johansson, and 2nd + prospect for Gio(@50% retained).


But even then I think they'll struggle to get that value. When you look at the market and see you've got Giroux, Miller, Kessel, Lehkonen, Manson, Klingberg, Domi, Chiarot, Kulak.... And then a huge list of names that could potentially be available if teams dont get back into the playoff picture by March as well. Names like Rakell, Pavelski, Hertl, Stastny, Copp...


There's potential for a lot of top tier rentals this deadline because the East playoff picture is already essentially set and the West only has a handful of spots left as well.

 

[stl76]

If you have to add the draft info after a player name when the guy was drafted 4 years ago, it's a bad sign for that player's trade value.

 

[Richard88]

Thst is heavily in favor of Colorado

soucy at 50% woukd cost a 1st from Colorado

Kaut for a former 1st at this age doesn’t have much value.

Seattle isn’t trading RFAs

There's no way Soucy fetches a 1st given how saturated the market will be. At that price teams will simply look at other options like Manson, Murphy, Klingberg, etc. Or just go for someone like Braun who several Flyers fans in other threads have said would likely cost a 3rd or thereabouts.

Predicting value for prospects is always tricky as it's hard to tell who a certain GM might like or not like. Whatever the case he surely still has some solid value as he's doing reasonably well in the AHL without much PP time.

Anyways, thanks for your reply, I appreciate the feedback!

 

[Richard88]

Neat idea, probably a no from Seattle. Let’s be real - the Kraken Sakic will pitch for is Donskoi. He likes re-acquiring former Avs. This was disastrous with Nemeth and Soderberg being Colorado’s TDL action last year. But the Avs apparently really love Donkey.

I doubt there's much interest from Sakic in reacquiring Donskoi. Despite the good (albeit streaky) production in the regular season Donskoi was consistently among the worst players in possession metrics, and even at 50% retained ($1.95m) that's going to be tough to fit in for a player who doesn't PK, play physically, and disappeared too often for stretches in the playoffs.

 

[Richard88]

No from this Kraken fan. Kaut is not exactly lighting the AHL on fire and does little to really entice me. A 2nd and 5th for Jarnkrok and Soucy seems a big underpayment more so considering the expectation is that we retain 50% on both players for multiple years.

And almost forgot, Daccord goes the other way too?

Easy no really.

Completely devaluing Kaut's value in the trade is a bit of a disingenuous way to assess trade value. But feel free to replace him with another pick or prospect if you'd like to make a counter proposal.

 

[Richard88]

If you have to add the draft info after a player name when the guy was drafted 4 years ago, it's a bad sign for that player's trade value.

I did it for clarity as I appreciate that not everyone is familiar with every prospect in other organization's (at least that's the case for me sometimes when reading proposal threads )

 

[Djp]

Completely devaluing Kaut's value in the trade is a bit of a disingenuous way to assess trade value. But feel free to replace him with another pick or prospect if you'd like to make a counter proposal.

a top half 1st pick who isn’t an impact player by yr 4 is bust levrl. The fact he was a former 1st means nothing in trade comp value.

you had Soucy at 50% fir all next year. That raises the ante considerably to a 1st round value for a likely final 4 team like Colorado.

 

[Mike Jones]

I think absolute best case scenario for Seattle is a 2nd rounder for Jarnkrok, 3rd rounder for Johansson, and 2nd + prospect for Gio(@50% retained).

Given the tough little spot Francis has given both himself and the wider organization I agree that this might be the best case scenario. Like I said, he shortchanged himself so that he can only get 3-4 decent assets this time around.