Proposal: Seattle / Colorado

[Richard88]

If Colorado is looking for depth, Canucks have some pieces that should be available

F: Motte, Dickinson, Highmore, Lammiko, Chiasson, Bailey < last 3 are trash, though

D: Schenn, Hamonic, Burroughs, Poolman, Hunt, Juulsen < Hunt and Juulsen are trash. Poolman is whatever but has a bad contract

G: Halak, Martin

Thanks for the suggestion.

Of the players on that list I'd imagine that the only ones of any interest to Colorado would be Schenn for cheap RHD depth, or maybe Halak if Francouz were to get hurt before the deadline.

Dickinson might be of interest to someone but at $2.65m x3 it won't be the Avs.

What's the latest with Hamonic btw? Didn't he make it clear that he only wanted to play in western Canada to be close to his family?

 

[HoseEmDown]

Kaut's ELC slid twice so he's still going to be on his ELC next year and hence waiver exempt until the start of 2023/24.

No, he's waiver eligible next season go check out Capfriendly. I'm pretty sure the reason he is because of his birthday being in October so he was considered 19 his entry draft year. Those players only require 4 seasons post draft before they require waivers while a player considered 18 requires 5 seasons.

 

[Richard88]

It really isn't.

Let's start with the retention. I am assuming you are unfamiliar with the contracts, because the retention alone is 3 million in cash. That is worth a late 2nd and late 5th alone.

Value aside, Kaut is not at all what Seattle needs, and is not a player they will be targeting to acquire with their best tradeable assets.

As far as Kaut's actual value, he is not Waiver exempt next season and is trending more toward bust as a first round pick than high end prospect. He is not worth Soucy alone, let alone adding, Jarnkrok and Daccord.

Good point on the contracts. When I made the OP proposal I wasn't aware that Soucy's contract was back-loaded. That probably does admittedly tip the scales a bit too much in Colorado's favour in the trade I proposed.

That said, the cash number here would be $2.24m, not $3m, as per the calculations below.

- Days between regular season start on October 12 and deadline on March 21 = 160
- Days from start to end of Regular season (October 12 - April 29) = 199
- % of season completed by deadline (160/199) = 0.804.
- So ~19.6% of salary would be left to pay after the deadline.​

0.196 x $1.5m (50% of Soucy's remaining $3m salary for 2021/22)
+
0.196 x $1m (50% of Jarnkrok's remaining $2m salary for 2021/22)
+
$1.75m (50% of Soucy's $3.5m salary in 2022/23)
-------------
$2.24m ($490k for both this season, and $1.75m for Soucy next year)

Whatever the case, getting $1.75m in retention next year would probably cost another asset as you pointed out, at which point the trade will probably be prohibitively expensive for Colorado unless Francis is happy to take a B prospect.

 

[Richard88]

Switch Kaut to Barron or Olausson and then Seattle considers. Kaut just doesn't have the value to be the main piece in the deal. He also will be waiver eligible next season and he hasn't shown he's a full time NHLer yet so there's huge risk for Seattle. They can target him next season for a pick if he might not crack the Colorado lineup.

Thanks for the counter proposal, much appreciated.

Barron and Olausson are highly regarded prospects for Colorado so it would be pretty surprising to see Sakic move them at all, let alone in a trade for depth players on expiring contracts. If prospects of that calibre are what Francis expects to get for Jarnkrok/Soucy then I'd expect Avs to turn their focus elsewhere.

 

[Richard88]

No, he's waiver eligible next season go check out Capfriendly. I'm pretty sure the reason he is because of his birthday being in October so he was considered 19 his entry draft year. Those players only require 4 seasons post draft before they require waivers while a player considered 18 requires 5 seasons.

Ah, I see. Thanks for pointing that out!

Here's the page for reference in case anyone else is curious:

 

[Richard88]

Gonna be hard to hit homeruns as well given the market. There's a plethora of rentals available this year and if you believe Friedman/others Vancouver is partially cleaning house on guys signed through next year as well(Both Miller and Garland apparently available). I think absolute best case scenario for Seattle is a 2nd rounder for Jarnkrok, 3rd rounder for Johansson, and 2nd + prospect for Gio(@50% retained).

But even then I think they'll struggle to get that value. When you look at the market and see you've got Giroux, Miller, Kessel, Lehkonen, Manson, Klingberg, Domi, Chiarot, Kulak.... And then a huge list of names that could potentially be available if teams dont get back into the playoff picture by March as well. Names like Rakell, Pavelski, Hertl, Stastny, Copp...

There's potential for a lot of top tier rentals this deadline because the East playoff picture is already essentially set and the West only has a handful of spots left as well.

I agree with your values for Jarnkrok and Johansson is right but I expect Gio to get a late 1st + prospect at 50% retention. There are other pieces that the Kraken may want to move out too like Blackwell who could get a mid-to-late round pick back.

I think it would just be in the Kraken's best benefit to move those players in the OP with individual deals than packaging them up. Jarnkrok on his own should land us a 2nd round pick (without retention). I expect Soucy does that with like 25% retention. Daccord we have zero interest in moving because he is our only waiver exempt goalie. Because of that the value of Daccord is a lot higher to us than the Avs or most other teams.

As Pierce said the market will be really flooded with good forward options, so I'd be surprised if guys like Jarnkrok bring back a 2nd rounder, especially without retention.

If that's the price for Jarnkrok as a rental I'd envisage that Sakic would prefer to use that 2nd to target Lehkonen who can be re-signed as an RFA, or re-acquire Namestnikov who is a known entity having done well as a rental with Colorado two years ago.

The market will dictate the price and there are going to be a lot of players available at the deadline, and GM's who hold out for high picks risk being left with nothing or having to settle for lower picks, which is precisely what happened with Dorion when Sakic out-waited him to get Namestnikov for a 4th at the last minute.

 

[McJedi]

Nothing wrong with targeting a 3rd goalie. But Kuemper (and Frankie) have been the Avs best players for much of their current winning streak.

goalie play has been a strength of the Avs for at least a month. Really since December 1st.

Kuemper really settling in nicely now. Much like Grubs did after a rough start to his first season is Colorado.

Avs look really strong in net right now and have for a while.

 

[Richard88]

Nothing wrong with targeting a 3rd goalie. But Kuemper (and Frankie) have been the Avs best players for much of their current winning streak.

goalie play has been a strength of the Avs for at least a month. Really since December 1st.

Kuemper really settling in nicely now. Much like Grubs did after a rough start to his first season is Colorado.

Avs look really strong in net right now and have for a while.

I agree with everything you said. Just think it's prudent for a contender to have three goalies with NHL experience, especially with Kuemper and Francouz's respective injury records.

Avs also only have Annunen under contract beyond this year so adding another youngish goalie to the organisational depth chart wouldn't be a bad move.

 

[Djp]

On most other teams Kaut would already have broken into the NHL by now. It just so happens that he's on one of the deepest teams in the league which has made it harder for him to stick.

His game isn't even all about scoring either. He was always projecting as a 3rd line sort of player. He may not make it with the Avs due to not having the speed for Bednar's ridiculously up-tempo style, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't find success somewhere in the NHL at some point.

50% retention is only $1.375m, hardly a massive amount that warrants a 1st. Anyways, happy for Seattle to keep him if that's what the asking price is.

most teams…no.

3rd liners are dine a dozen. As you said since he doesn’t have speed hurts him.

sure some higher drafter picks have been able to change their game to fit a role

 

[McJedi]

I agree with everything you said. Just think it's prudent for a contender to have three goalies with NHL experience, especially with Kuemper and Francouz's respective injury records.

Avs also only have Annunen under contract beyond this year so adding another youngish goalie to the organisational depth chart wouldn't be a bad move.

Annunen is playing well for the AHL club. He’s just 21 and a higher draft pick. He looks promising for a role on the big club at some point.

 

[Lemonlimey]

Nothing wrong with targeting a 3rd goalie. But Kuemper (and Frankie) have been the Avs best players for much of their current winning streak.

goalie play has been a strength of the Avs for at least a month. Really since December 1st.

Kuemper really settling in nicely now. Much like Grubs did after a rough start to his first season is Colorado.

Avs look really strong in net right now and have for a while.

If Francouz didn’t get hurt in the bubble and miss 2 years, he’d be nationally recognized. His numbers were better than Grubauer and are better than Kuemper. He’s such a cool chill nice smart dude too. For an Altitude TV segment they asked all the Avs for a book they’ve read. Everyone gave the expected answer of another athlete biography or harry potter. Frankie is reading Wim Hof.

 

[Richard88]

Annunen is playing well for the AHL club. He’s just 21 and a higher draft pick. He looks promising for a role on the big club at some point.

At some point is not this year. Need an NHL tested no.3

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

As Pierce said the market will be really flooded with good forward options, so I'd be surprised if guys like Jarnkrok bring back a 2nd rounder, especially without retention.

If that's the price for Jarnkrok as a rental I'd envisage that Sakic would prefer to use that 2nd to target Lehkonen who can be re-signed as an RFA, or re-acquire Namestnikov who is a known entity having done well as a rental with Colorado two years ago.

The market will dictate the price and there are going to be a lot of players available at the deadline, and GM's who hold out for high picks risk being left with nothing or having to settle for lower picks, which is precisely what happened with Dorion when Sakic out-waited him to get Namestnikov for a 4th at the last minute.

I genuinely expect that kind of a price for Jarnkrok. He is a solid option as a tweener who can do pretty much everything in that role. He can chip in about 0.5PPG, play on the PK, shutdown line, etc. He has playoff experience and is available at 2M on an expiring contract.

That may or may not make sense to Avs from a value POV but the Kraken need to just find the highest bidder to move him. Jarnkrok is actually few of our pending UFA's a lot of folks on our board would like to re-sign but understand that: a) We need futures. b) Jarnkrok will get a increase in salary which may not make sense to us as we are not even close to competing.

And it may be a buyers market but it is not going to be easy to find a player like Jarnkrok at 2M AAV. The Kraken have the flexibility to retain and can also take salary back but the deal needs to make sense to us. Avs are right against the cap and are going to look for the 'cheapest' options so we may just not be good trading partners.

 

[McJedi]

At some point is not this year. Need an NHL tested no.3

It’s not a pressing need today richard. Avs playing so well, Sakic has time to be patient and wait out the TDL when prices drop.

 

[Richard88]

It’s not a pressing need today richard. Avs playing so well, Sakic has time to be patient and wait out the TDL when prices drop.

Well yeah, I want claiming that a 3G is needed now. The proposal I made is a deadline move.

 

[AvsGuy]

I think the Avs make a deadline pitch to reacquire Donskoi, and I don't think it costs much with him sitting at zero goals

Soucy returning a 1st round pick is beyond laughable

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

At some point is not this year. Need an NHL tested no.3

I really hope we don't need an NHL tested number 3, and whoever we hopefully acquire can just enjoy the press box cuisine.

 

[flyfysher]

Nothing wrong with targeting a 3rd goalie. But Kuemper (and Frankie) have been the Avs best players for much of their current winning streak.

goalie play has been a strength of the Avs for at least a month. Really since December 1st.

Kuemper really settling in nicely now. Much like Grubs did after a rough start to his first season is Colorado.

Avs look really strong in net right now and have for a while.

I kept saying in that main board thread where the Habs were trying to shove Price off on us that I wanted to see the Avs get and play healthy for at least a month before deciding on whether Sakic needs to acquire a goalie at the TDL. Fracouz and Kuemper are both good goalies but they needed to develop some rhythm with the squad.

 

[Irie]

Soucy returning a 1st round pick is beyond laughable

Soucy is a big, physical, smooth-skating top four two-way defenseman.

He's strong defensively and he moves the puck well and contributes on offense.

He has another year after this one, and all the talk on these boards has been about acquiring him @ 50%.

The retention alone is worth probably more than a 2nd round pick.

As far as firsts, we aren't talking a likely lottery pick. A contender's first would be late to very late.

What do you honestly believe a player like that AND retention is worth? He's not a rental.

 

[bleedgreen]

The market won’t be that soft and Seattle gets no real value here for giving up three players.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I kept saying in that main board thread where the Habs were trying to shove Price off on us that I wanted to see the Avs get and play healthy for at least a month before deciding on whether Sakic needs to acquire a goalie at the TDL. Fracouz and Kuemper are both good goalies but they needed to develop some rhythm with the squad.

When is the team going to be healthy for a whole month so we can start seeing what we've got?

 

[Irie]

Good point on the contracts. When I made the OP proposal I wasn't aware that Soucy's contract was back-loaded. That probably does admittedly tip the scales a bit too much in Colorado's favour in the trade I proposed.

That said, the cash number here would be $2.24m, not $3m, as per the calculations below.

- Days between regular season start on October 12 and deadline on March 21 = 160
- Days from start to end of Regular season (October 12 - April 29) = 199
- % of season completed by deadline (160/199) = 0.804.
- So ~19.6% of salary would be left to pay after the deadline.​

0.196 x $1.5m (50% of Soucy's remaining $3m salary for 2021/22)
+
0.196 x $1m (50% of Jarnkrok's remaining $2m salary for 2021/22)
+
$1.75m (50% of Soucy's $3.5m salary in 2022/23)
-------------
$2.24m ($490k for both this season, and $1.75m for Soucy next year)

Whatever the case, getting $1.75m in retention next year would probably cost another asset as you pointed out, at which point the trade will probably be prohibitively expensive for Colorado unless Francis is happy to take a B prospect.

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View attachment 503727

Sorry, I was factoring the retention from a trade now, not in another six weeks. It would have been close to 2.9 million in rentention (2.45 and .45)

Retention value and player value in a vacuum aside, Seattle has zero use for Kraut.

Seattle desperately needs play-makers that can drive the powerplay and drive play in the top 6.

They are over loaded with bottom six players, so much so that they waived Bastion and lost him for nothing.

Add in the fact that there will be a lot of bottom six guys available cheap via UFA this year, and a proposal of Kraut as the main piece will likely have zero interest for the Kraken.

Seattle needs picks to establish their farm, and prospects with strong top six potential.

If you are looking to acquire several players from them and you want to come to an agreement on value that works for both sides, that is where I would start when constructing an offer.

 

[Richard88]

Soucy is a big, physical, smooth-skating top four two-way defenseman.

He's strong defensively and he moves the puck well and contributes on offense.

He has another year after this one, and all the talk on these boards has been about acquiring him @ 50%.

The retention alone is worth probably more than a 2nd round pick.

As far as firsts, we aren't talking a likely lottery pick. A contender's first would be late to very late.

What do you honestly believe a player like that AND retention is worth? He's not a rental.

You've made some valid points, but saying that he's a top four Dman is a bit premature.

Btw, a useful comparison could be big, physical, smooth skating two-way defenseman Ryan Graves who was recently traded with a similar contract ($3.16m x 2) for a 2nd + prospect. Graves led the league in shot blocks and +/- while playing a season on Colorado's top pair, so had a bit more pedigree than Soucy. With retention it would be fair that the return on Soucy would be slightly higher though as you pointed out.

 

[AvsGuy]

Soucy is a big, physical, smooth-skating top four two-way defenseman.

He's strong defensively and he moves the puck well and contributes on offense.

He has another year after this one, and all the talk on these boards has been about acquiring him @ 50%.

The retention alone is worth probably more than a 2nd round pick.

As far as firsts, we aren't talking a likely lottery pick. A contender's first would be late to very late.

What do you honestly believe a player like that AND retention is worth? He's not a rental.

He's a 3rd pairing guy who makes $1.375, there's no retention necessary, he's not amazingly more valuable at half price because he's not making much anyways

 

[Irie]

You've made some valid points, but saying that he's a top four Dman is a bit premature.

Btw, a useful comparison could be big, physical, smooth skating two-way defenseman Ryan Graves who was recently traded with a similar contract ($3.16m x 2) for a 2nd + prospect. Graves led the league in shot blocks and +/- while playing a season on Colorado's top pair, so had a bit more pedigree than Soucy. With retention it would be fair that the return on Soucy would be slightly higher though as you pointed out.

Soucy played a ton of games in Minnesota's top four the past two seasons, and he was very solid.

Ignoring his success in a top four role because when at full strength he was behind Suter and Brodin is not a great way to gauge his role.

He repeatedly moved up into the top four playing the left or right side anytime any of their top 4 were out, which was often, and he has played a top four role quite well in Seattle.

Using Graves as a comp is extremely disingenuous.

Colorado needed cap to re-sign Landeskog. Sakic sold extremely low on Graves because there was an expansion draft and he required protecting, the Avalanche knew they were going to lose him for nothing, and almost no teams in the league had an extra D slot to protect him.

If Sakic had protected Graves and put him on the market after the Expasnion draft, he would have returned double the value.

Graves value now, is at minimum, a late first .