So it looks like:
For us to get in at 10-7, we need the following to happen. We can't win the division at 10-7.
1. The 7 loss teams (Broncos, Bengals) to become 8 loss teams. We lose a tiebreaker with both the Bengals and Broncos
AND
2. One of Indy/Texans/Jacksonvlle to lose two games
OR
3. Cleveland to lose out.
Either way, NONE of it matters if we don't get to 10-7. We get to 11-6 we are in regardless.
It looks like there are some scenarios with a 3 way tie we for the last spot we could get in the top two (Over Houston it looks like)
Edit: Looks like in a 3 way tie with us and two of Jacksonville/Indy/Texans and the Bills, they would take ONE of the AFC south teams and us. That's actually kind of f***ed up lol.
The NFL's procedures for breaking ties for postseason playoffs.
operations.nfl.com