Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Jim Bob]

https://www.niagara-gazette.com/sports/bills-notebook-kaiir-elam-details-how-much-ligament-tear-impacted-early-season-performance/article_d129caa0-99fb-11ee-9de3-b7446efebf19.html

There was a smile on Kaiir Elam’s face as he sat in front of his locker Wednesday, one that wasn’t there 10 weeks ago.

Elam spent most of the early stages of training camp in a three-way battle to be the No. 2 cornerback for the Buffalo Bills. He a little more than year from being a first-round pick and natural expectations were for him to win the job.

He came into camp feeling fast and confident, but by the second preseason game in Pittsburgh, Elam was starting to feel discomfort in his foot. And the following week in Chicago, Elam tore the deltoid ligament on the inside of his right foot when someone landed on his foot while making a tackle.


Elam had options during the preseason and when the Bills placed him on injured reserve Nov. 2 to have surgery or let it heal naturally. Surgery meant longer time on the shelf, so Elam went the opposite direction both times.

Now seven days into his 21-day window to be taken off injured reserve or be lost for the season, Elam feels healthy. Once dour and lacking confidence, Elam is more upbeat, even if it means facing a daunting task in cracking the game day lineup with a cornerback group more crowded than when he left.

 

[HOOats]

https://www.niagara-gazette.com/sports/bills-notebook-kaiir-elam-details-how-much-ligament-tear-impacted-early-season-performance/article_d129caa0-99fb-11ee-9de3-b7446efebf19.html

Timeline doesn't check out, but whatever Kaiir needs to get his psyche back on track is fine I suppose.

Not sure what "Elam had options in the preseason means," but he didn't appear on any injury report until week 7, two months after the supposed date of the injury, when it was clear he wasn't in the mix to play. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bills got a league phone call re: fudging the intel on this one.

 

[Husko]

If you're a Christian, and read and understand, and then believe in the Bible, you know this already. The prince of this world doesn't wear a white hat.

As someone who spends a lot of time in a courtroom, I think it'd be really hard for you to see a whole lot of good.

As someone who has spent years of my life overseas, I didn't see a whole lot of good. And in this country too.

But, I'm here to love not to judge. Which is why I don't get on threads and condemn ever. Not because I think I'm holier than thou, but because it's not my place.

I'm waiting to see how the Miller situation plays out and how it's handled. Until then, he's playing.

To do my kind of work requires being able to see the good in people, even when they do bad.

 

[Der Jaeger]

To do my kind of work requires being able to see the good in people, even when they do bad.

That's another way to love someone else.

 

[SundherDome]

I miss Justin Zimmer, dude had a motor

 

[Jim Bob]

Bruce has a great take on the Tyler Dunne series. And I completely agree with Bruce having an issue with Dunne claiming that McD is THE problem. It is never that simple.

 

[Jage]

How about Araiza for next season... to revitalize a possible career that was meant to be?

 

[Jim Bob]

How about Araiza for next season... to revitalize a possible career that was meant to be?

From what we saw during the preseason last year, Araiza is overrated based on the highlight reel bombs. His kick to kick consistency and hangtime leave a lot to be desired.

I am not convinced that he would be an upgrade over Martin. Especially given the year off and the questions about his ability as a holder for Bass.

I'm not sure which podcast I listened to this morning talked about it, but the best thing for Araiza would be to play in one of the spring leagues and using it as an audition for NFL teams, including the Bills.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Colin Cowherd talked about the Chiefs and what the huge contracts for Mahomes, Kelce, and Jones means for the franchise. Basically, once you're into that phase of the team, you have to take on low-cost, younger players at other positions. But they've also got money tied up into a guard (Thuney), at RT (Taylor), safety (Reid), DE (Omenihu), and WR (MVS). Jones is a free agent after this season, KC will have $30M in cap space, and 34 players under contract.

What the Chiefs decided on is that they are spending big on their franchise QB, his favorite receiver, 2 linemen to protect the QB, a couple defensive linemen and a safety. Many of their other players are on rookie contracts (Sneed, McDuffie, Karlaftis, FAU, Humphrey, Rice, etc.).

So where should Beane and the Bills decide to spend their money as the franchise moves into a different phase (phase 2 of the Allen era)? I suggest going big into the 2024 draft on both lines, and defensive back.

The top contracts for next season are:
Allen (franchise QB)
Diggs (QB's favorite receiver)
3 offensive linemen (Morse, Dawkins, and McGovern)
2 defensive linemen (Miller and Oliver)
4 defensive backs (White, Poyer, Johnson, and Douglas)
Knox
Milano

And Beane starts the season $42M in the hole with the cap.

This is what I'd do:
- Prioritize keeping Allen protected. Dawkins and Morse are entering the final year of their contracts next season. I've posted a bunch of mock drafts and I always take offensive linemen. That's why.
- Prioritize the defense so Allen isn't playing in run-and-gun games. Let Miller walk or move on from him, but re-sign Rousseau. The defensive backfield needs safeties and depth. Linebacker is fine, but the team needs some defensive tackles. I draft them a lot in my mock drafts as well.
- I wouldn't spend a ton on running backs of receivers. I think Joe Brady is showing that he can scheme with what he has, and if Allen takes what the defensive gives him, he's only got to be super on a few plays. That's really what he should be aiming for. Let Gabe Davis walk.
- Re-structure contracts to get out of the cap hole and onto the next season.
- Try to get depth on as many cheap contracts as I could get.
- Trade down in the 1st round, pick up a 3rd, and keep the rest of my picks or trade down to get more. The Bills need a lot of rookie contracts.

Draft: I'd go into the draft looking at defensive line, offensive line, and safety. If a player falls and he's the BPA, that's fine. But I definitely don't want Allen dealing with what Mahomes is going through, getting hit in the pocket on obvious passing downs.

I used PFF's big board but drafted off PFN because you can trade down and it goes 7 rounds without paying for it. My methodology: If a player is there on PFN but he'd be way gone according to PFF's list, I didn't take the player. I traded down from 17 to 24 to make it as if the Bills made the playoffs. I then traded down in the 1st round to pick up and extra pick. I also traded the Bills 2025 1st for the compensatory pick in 2024, since PFN hasn't listed it yet (that was just administrative, as I'd never made that trade for real).

1st: traded down from 24 to 31 and picked up pick 94.
31: Patrick Paul OT Houston. He's going to get drafted higher than his PFF grade. Pure LT with great movement ability. The Dawkins replacement to keep Allen's blind side clean.

2nd: traded down from 48 to 62 to pick up 93.
62: Jackson Powers-Johnson C Oregon. Center of the future.

93: Brendan Rice WR USC
94: Nazir Stackhouse DT Georgia
96: Tykee Smith S Georgia
114: Blake Fisher OT Notre Dame
145: Jaylin Simpson DB Auburn
147: Justin Rogers DT Auburn
174: Lathan Ransom S Ohio State
176: Keith Randolph DT Illinois
190: Malachi Moore S Alabama
207: Zion Nelson OL Miami, Fla.

Disagree with the picks or the trades... this draft is just a model of what I'd look to do if I were Beane. The team adds in rookies at these positions:

- 4 offensive linemen, including high quality players at LT and C, a good developmental RT, and a player in Nelson who reminds me of Jason Peters with his athleticism but raw play. Paul and JPJ get developmental years to learn and then take over in 2025. That's how you prevent Allen from getting killed - Mahomes is going through that right now.
- 3 defensive tackle to replace the players around Oliver.
- 4 defensive backs. McDermott's defense needs safeties and depth, and the Bills could reload both.
- A receiver in Rice who has a lot of tools. I think he's a way better pro than college player.

That's how I'd reload the Bills.

 

[Ben Grimm]

Where does Matt Araiza go to get his reputation — let alone his NFL career — back?

The accusations that caused Matt Araiza to lose his NFL career shouldn’t stand in the way of his chance to earn it back.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[Jim Bob]

Where does Matt Araiza go to get his reputation — let alone his NFL career — back?

The accusations that caused Matt Araiza to lose his NFL career shouldn’t stand in the way of his chance to earn it back.

sports.yahoo.com

The New York Jets brought Araiza in for a workout last offseason, but did not sign him. Other than that, it’s been quiet.

I wonder how that workout went.

 

[Husko]

Colin Cowherd talked about the Chiefs and what the huge contracts for Mahomes, Kelce, and Jones means for the franchise. Basically, once you're into that phase of the team, you have to take on low-cost, younger players at other positions. But they've also got money tied up into a guard (Thuney), at RT (Taylor), safety (Reid), DE (Omenihu), and WR (MVS). Jones is a free agent after this season, KC will have $30M in cap space, and 34 players under contract.

What the Chiefs decided on is that they are spending big on their franchise QB, his favorite receiver, 2 linemen to protect the QB, a couple defensive linemen and a safety. Many of their other players are on rookie contracts (Sneed, McDuffie, Karlaftis, FAU, Humphrey, Rice, etc.).

So where should Beane and the Bills decide to spend their money as the franchise moves into a different phase (phase 2 of the Allen era)? I suggest going big into the 2024 draft on both lines, and defensive back.

The top contracts for next season are:
Allen (franchise QB)
Diggs (QB's favorite receiver)
3 offensive linemen (Morse, Dawkins, and McGovern)
2 defensive linemen (Miller and Oliver)
4 defensive backs (White, Poyer, Johnson, and Douglas)
Knox
Milano

And Beane starts the season $42M in the hole with the cap.

This is what I'd do:
- Prioritize keeping Allen protected. Dawkins and Morse are entering the final year of their contracts next season. I've posted a bunch of mock drafts and I always take offensive linemen. That's why.
- Prioritize the defense so Allen isn't playing in run-and-gun games. Let Miller walk or move on from him, but re-sign Rousseau. The defensive backfield needs safeties and depth. Linebacker is fine, but the team needs some defensive tackles. I draft them a lot in my mock drafts as well.
- I wouldn't spend a ton on running backs of receivers. I think Joe Brady is showing that he can scheme with what he has, and if Allen takes what the defensive gives him, he's only got to be super on a few plays. That's really what he should be aiming for. Let Gabe Davis walk.
- Re-structure contracts to get out of the cap hole and onto the next season.
- Try to get depth on as many cheap contracts as I could get.
- Trade down in the 1st round, pick up a 3rd, and keep the rest of my picks or trade down to get more. The Bills need a lot of rookie contracts.

Draft: I'd go into the draft looking at defensive line, offensive line, and safety. If a player falls and he's the BPA, that's fine. But I definitely don't want Allen dealing with what Mahomes is going through, getting hit in the pocket on obvious passing downs.

I used PFF's big board but drafted off PFN because you can trade down and it goes 7 rounds without paying for it. My methodology: If a player is there on PFN but he'd be way gone according to PFF's list, I didn't take the player. I traded down from 17 to 24 to make it as if the Bills made the playoffs. I then traded down in the 1st round to pick up and extra pick. I also traded the Bills 2025 1st for the compensatory pick in 2024, since PFN hasn't listed it yet (that was just administrative, as I'd never made that trade for real).

1st: traded down from 24 to 31 and picked up pick 94.
31: Patrick Paul OT Houston. He's going to get drafted higher than his PFF grade. Pure LT with great movement ability. The Dawkins replacement to keep Allen's blind side clean.

2nd: traded down from 48 to 62 to pick up 93.
62: Jackson Powers-Johnson C Oregon. Center of the future.

93: Brendan Rice WR USC
94: Nazir Stackhouse DT Georgia
96: Tykee Smith S Georgia
114: Blake Fisher OT Notre Dame
145: Jaylin Simpson DB Auburn
147: Justin Rogers DT Auburn
174: Lathan Ransom S Ohio State
176: Keith Randolph DT Illinois
190: Malachi Moore S Alabama
207: Zion Nelson OL Miami, Fla.

Disagree with the picks or the trades... this draft is just a model of what I'd look to do if I were Beane. The team adds in rookies at these positions:

- 4 offensive linemen, including high quality players at LT and C, a good developmental RT, and a player in Nelson who reminds me of Jason Peters with his athleticism but raw play. Paul and JPJ get developmental years to learn and then take over in 2025. That's how you prevent Allen from getting killed - Mahomes is going through that right now.
- 3 defensive tackle to replace the players around Oliver.
- 4 defensive backs. McDermott's defense needs safeties and depth, and the Bills could reload both.
- A receiver in Rice who has a lot of tools. I think he's a way better pro than college player.

That's how I'd reload the Bills.

One of the little-discussed factors with the Chiefs is that they have cheep ownership. They could be spending a lot more by pushing Mahomes money into the future, but don't because they don't like to lay out the cash doing so requires. They're not a "won't spend to the cap," team, but they have their own internal restraints.

The Chiefs have also become an interesting cautionary tale for what happens when you completely whiff at WR (despite spending draft capital there). They have the best QB in the game, a HOF TE, and an above average line, and absolutely nothing at WR is holding them back big time.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

From what we saw during the preseason last year, Araiza is overrated based on the highlight reel bombs. His kick to kick consistency and hangtime leave a lot to be desired.

I am not convinced that he would be an upgrade over Martin. Especially given the year off and the questions about his ability as a holder for Bass.

I'm not sure which podcast I listened to this morning talked about it, but the best thing for Araiza would be to play in one of the spring leagues and using it as an audition for NFL teams, including the Bills.

I think that's fair, but they cannot enter next year with just Martin. They need to bring in competition, whether that is Araiza or someone else.

 

[TehDoak]

Seeing the Chargers absolutely meltdown now has me worried for next week. Likely a front office cleanout incoming. They are going to be on a mini bye and we'll be on a short week with a saturday night game with travel. I guess let's get thru sunday first but.....why couldn't they have waited a week to pack it in for the season.

 

[Ace]

Seeing the Chargers absolutely meltdown now has me worried for next week. Likely a front office cleanout incoming. They are going to be on a mini bye and we'll be on a short week with a saturday night game with travel. I guess let's get thru sunday first but.....why couldn't they have waited a week to pack it in for the season.

Herbert isn’t walking through that door and they couldn’t win a lot with him. They’re done for the year.

 

[Fezzy126]

One of the little-discussed factors with the Chiefs is that they have cheep ownership. They could be spending a lot more by pushing Mahomes money into the future, but don't because they don't like to lay out the cash doing so requires. They're not a "won't spend to the cap," team, but they have their own internal restraints.

The Chiefs have also become an interesting cautionary tale for what happens when you completely whiff at WR (despite spending draft capital there). They have the best QB in the game, a HOF TE, and an above average line, and absolutely nothing at WR is holding them back big time.

Yep, they're also entering a tricky window where their biggest core pieces are starting to age out (Thuney, Kelce, Jones) while still earning massive contracts. They're going to have some interesting decisions to make on the next round of guys like Humphry, Sneed, Bolton, and some others, a lot of these being non-premium positions. It's going to make it hard on them unless they hit some more home runs in the draft.

I'm sure they find a way to keep most of their important pieces, most teams do. But they definitely need to hit on some premium positions like WR, DE, and DT, because I don't think they have the luxury of taking a big swing in FA.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Seeing the Chargers absolutely meltdown now has me worried for next week. Likely a front office cleanout incoming. They are going to be on a mini bye and we'll be on a short week with a saturday night game with travel. I guess let's get thru sunday first but.....why couldn't they have waited a week to pack it in for the season.

and the Raiders scoring 3 pts last week makes it even worse

 

[buffa dud]

Yep, they're also entering a tricky window where their biggest core pieces are starting to age out (Thuney, Kelce, Jones) while still earning massive contracts. They're going to have some interesting decisions to make on the next round of guys like Humphry, Sneed, Bolton, and some others, a lot of these being non-premium positions. It's going to make it hard on them unless they hit some more home runs in the draft.

I'm sure they find a way to keep most of their important pieces, most teams do. But they definitely need to hit on some premium positions like WR, DE, and DT, because I don't think they have the luxury of taking a big swing in FA.

I want to believe in KC's gradual decline, but two decades worth of Tom Brady taught me that a Hall of Fame QB can turn a deeply flawed roster into a contender.

 

[buffa dud]

and the Raiders scoring 3 pts last week makes it even worse

Ehhh, like Ace said above, the Chargers were average when they had Herbert, Allen, and something to play for. I can't see them doing a complete 180. That doesn't mean they cann't play like a 0.500 team, and give the Bills a hard time, though.

 

[TheStorm]

Id gladly let the Bills be in whatever trouble the Chiefs are in if they won as many Superbowls as them

 

[Jim Bob]

I think that's fair, but they cannot enter next year with just Martin. They need to bring in competition, whether that is Araiza or someone else.

They could. But, it is the punter. It is one of the least important positions on this team. So, I do not think it is a MUST HAVE for this off season.

 

[Fezzy126]

I want to believe in KC's gradual decline, but two decades worth of Tom Brady taught me that a Hall of Fame QB can turn a deeply flawed roster into a contender.

It's not that I think they're going to fall off the map, that'll never happen while they have Mahomes + Reid.

My opinion is more along of these lines: When they had Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Jones, Clark all in their primes, their best game > our best game.

With their roster challenges you probably don't have to play the perfect game to have a chance against them anymore, they've come back down the pack.

Also, probably not right to compare anyone to Brady, no one will ever replicate what that guy did. Most all time greats end up like Manning, Rodgers, or Brees - always competitive but ultimately only get 1-2 Super Bowls.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

To the surprise of absolutely no one.

 

[buffalowing88]

Was hoping they'd hang onto Staley through our week. Makes sense to do it during the long break, but now we've got to deal with some weird momentum that comes with regime changes. Fortunately, Easton Stick should offset all that.