Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[misterchainsaw]

This season, more than others, it seems like no matter where our defense gets a stop, the result is almost always a booming punt from the opponent with our coverage guys getting beat downfield and Harty fair catching it around the 15. Aside from the Tampa game and I think one return in the JAX game, it feels like they get zilch out of punt return opportunities.

And the Tampa game featured not one but two "keep 'em in the game" holding penalties on punt returns that cost them a total of about 50 yards...Bills would have been able to kick put away FG's on either of those ensuing drives without the penalty yardage.

 

[GameMisconduct]

I must be one of the few who doesn't feel all doom and gloom after that loss. I actually feel a bit better. The defense was able to hold a hot Bengals offense to 10 points for 3 quarters of play. It wasn't like the playoff game where we were completely outclassed.

The offense needs to get on point, but they're moving the ball a bit. Also, gaining another premium weapon in Kincaid is going to go a long way. If he doesn't fumble, then we have a solid chance of winning that game, though the injuries to Benford and co. probably would've allowed the Bengals to move the ball with more ease.

I just didn't have any faith the defense would be able to slow down a good offense with all of the injuries, but they played well, and that leaves me feeling more hopeful than before the game. The injury report may put a sizeable dent in my hope for the defense, though.

If the offense can get hot at the right time, then anything is possible. The defense looked so much better being coached by McD. Just have to hope we can go on a run, make the playoffs, then get hot during the playoffs.

This season feels a lot like 2021.

I've been voicing a lot of simlar thoughts to the crowd I've been watching games with. I think there are some reasons to have hope and I've been encouraged in some ways that the defense has been better in some ways than I expected, and think Beane's TDL pickups were good.

I don't think this game was the one to change a lot for me about where they are as team this season. This was going to be a tough one on the road to win against a team we don't match up particularly well with, and I don't think the way they lost was all that different from what the expectations were. The New England, Giants, and Jags games were far more frustrating.

Probably the top issue for me they need to solve is starting stronger and maintaining first half momentum on offense. They've kept putting themselves in a hole in the first half of games and they don't have the margin for error with the D in the state in they are to weather many setbacks while they try to get it going.

I have been frustrated by some decisions from Mc D, hate how Cook's inability to pass protect deprives them of a weapon in many situations where he would be useful--especially with Knox out, and some of Dorsey's boggling situational calls (although I think a lot of people have amnesia about how galaxy brained DaBoll would get), but the potential is still there this season if they can get out of there own damn way to do a lot of damage.

 

[buffa dud]

It's all going to come down to injuries, in the end. Thankfully, the Bills still have their bye week in front of them.

 

[brian_griffin]

Could it be the Bills spent too much time this offseason making national commercials?

Hot take: Von is toast

I agree I take my toast served hot. Von is more like week-old stale bread.

Pathetic response to good D drive. Dorsey has nothing’s up his sleeve….ever

That invoked a mental image of Dorsey symbolically wearing a muscle shirt in the upstairs coaches booth. Fitting?

I've been a defender of Dorsey but I'm really starting to sour on him. Who would replace him though?

I am not a fan of AI / ChatGPT, but I'd be willing to try it for a half of a game.

Re: two spy talk.

A) they're not doing it on every play by any means

B) spies can also function as short zones, which they are doing a lot of. They're not true spies in that they approach the pocket and only play the QB. They're playing short zone on each side and those guys are also responsible for containment. They're not completely out of the coverage scheme just because they're "spying"

Doesn't Milano essentially do this?

CEO is more of a figure head in most orgs. I am fine having a core group of ST players and McD can say they need to not cost a ton and be able to play in a pinch but ultimately the ST cord determines who goes out there and gets reps.

Disagree wholeheartedly re: this generic statement, especially as applied to a publicly held company. Not commenting on applicability to the Bills.
The CEO in my company is also the self proclaimed Chief Salesman. He works constantly and admittedly has no hobbies. He's also the chief ass-kicker internally and the face of the company to Wall Street. You might more rightly say the Chairman of the Board is a figurehead role in many companies (it's not, but is far more so than CEO). In my company, the CEO is also the Chairman of the Board and he has held both titles for ~20 of the past ~25 years. He has in part designated some of those Chairman duties to a formal Vice-Chair (who has for years simultaneously held another executive committee role and title - three separate ones, depending on particular timeframe of his career).

If you want to say the bolded about a privately held company (examples in USA: SC Johnson, Mars candies, Cargill, Publix although Publix is substantially employee-owned) then that might be more true.

Do we have faith in McDermott to hire a new OC?

a new one would be the fourth in his few years has head coach after Dennison, Daboll, and Dorsey.

I still think we need a new head coach to take that next step. Whoever posted that article about coaches and QBs needing new after 5 years was a really interesting article.

I couldn't be more opposed to changing out the coach based upon what the trends / data show.

The NFL & collegiate head coach is the leader of the franchise / school. I think it's far worse to change out leadership that has been internally effective because temporary results aren't in line with past performance or expectations. That's analogous to missing quarterly earnings and sacking the CEO.

I look at the Steeler model of identifying the right leader (Noll, Cowher, Tomlin) and leaving them in place as the internal environment (roster, franchise QB, position coaches and coordinators) and external environment (competitor teams, rule changes, injuries each season, shitty officiating) change.

 

[buffa dud]

In any season, the NFL is as good as the quarterback play. That’s never going to change. The reason the NFL has all the rules to protect quarterbacks is to avoid situations like the league faces now.

Quarterback play is down across the league. If you watched the New York Jets play Monday night, you're well aware.

Want to know why scoring is down? Check out the QB play across the league. Why does it seem there are no great teams this season? QB play.

Why is it hard to fill out a top-five best games of the season list after two months? You guessed it.

Think of it this way: How many quarterbacks are playing better than their expectation this season? That list is very short.

There was a four-year stretch from 2018-21 in which the passer rating across the league was above 90 each season, peaking at 93.6 in 2020. That dipped to 89.1 last season and was 89.3 this season before Monday night's game, in which winning quarterback Justin Herbert had a 65.4 rating. This season's rating could drop well below 89 as injuries pile up and the weather gets worse.

If you watch games each week or are a Jets season-ticket holder, you don't need stats to tell you quarterback play has not been very good.

The bottom end of NFL quarterbacks is not good enough. It's hard enough to find 32 good starters; when teams have to turn to backups it can get really bad. Clayton Tune had 27 passing yards through three quarters for the Cardinals on Sunday. Over a little more than four quarters of game action through his first two games, Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito had just 10 passing yards. Brett Rypien put up a 45.2 passer rating for the Rams. Tyson Bagent threw three interceptions for the Bears. At least Joshua Dobbs was good for the Vikings when pressed into duty Sunday, though he was bad enough for the Cardinals that he was benched and traded.

There was a lot of ugly quarterback play Sunday. Four teams put up six points or less. Not all of that bad play came from overwhelmed backups pressed into action.

Geno Smith hasn't replicated his stellar 2022 season for the Seahawks. Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes were supposed to engage in an epic shootout; both of them finished with less than 200 yards passing, and the Chiefs and Dolphins were each shut out in a half.

Injuries have been an issue. Aaron Rodgers' season was done after four plays for the Jets, and Zach Wilson has been hard to watch. Kirk Cousins is done for the season, as is Daniel Jones. So is exciting rookie Anthony Richardson. Deshaun Watson and Joe Burrow have either missed time or been limited due to injuries. Kyler Murray hasn't played yet.

Even the elite quarterbacks haven't been that great. Burrow got off to a rough start, though he's heating up. Josh Allen threw a terrible interception Sunday night and is tied for the NFL lead with nine of them. Mahomes hasn't lived up to his normal standard. Jalen Hurts has been good but not great. These are supposed to be the NFL's must-watch superstars, and none of them is playing as well as he did last season.

link

 

[valet]

I've been voicing a lot of simlar thoughts to the crowd I've been watching games with. I think there are some reasons to have hope and I've been encouraged in some ways that the defense has been better in some ways than I expected, and think Beane's TDL pickups were good.

I don't think this game was the one to change a lot for me about where they are as team this season. This was going to be a tough one on the road to win against a team we don't match up particularly well with, and I don't think the way they lost was all that different from what the expectations were. The New England, Giants, and Jags games were far more frustrating.

Probably the top issue for me they need to solve is starting stronger and maintaining first half momentum on offense. They've kept putting themselves in a hole in the first half of games and they don't have the margin for error with the D in the state in they are to weather many setbacks while they try to get it going.

I have been frustrated by some decisions from Mc D, hate how Cook's inability to pass protect deprives them of a weapon in many situations where he would be useful--especially with Knox out, and some of Dorsey's boggling situational calls (although I think a lot of people have amnesia about how galaxy brained DaBoll would get), but the potential is still there this season if they can get out of there own damn way to do a lot of damage.

i'm an eternal buffalo sports optimist--so buyer beware there

BUT.........

tbh felt the same way after the game. we stuck in there on the road against team that's playing their best football of the season.

the offense is starting to figure it out. the defense is mightily banged up, but they are managing to keep us in games. we were pretty much about to break the doors down on the drive that kincaid fumbled.... we score there i think we win. even without that drive we almost won.

and then, of course, it also seemed like the refs were f***ing us at every opportunity. missed trip that would have set us up around the bengals 25, a bs intentional grounding call that had us punting from deep in our own territory, feather soft roughing the passer on settle that kept a cincy drive alive, no PI in the endzone when gabe got his facemask grabbed, inexplicable failure to overturn the sherfield incompletion even tho there was clear evidence that the ball hit his hands instead of the ground, etc. we get even 2 of these calls going our way, it's a whole different game. anyways........

it's not as bad as people think. big picture, we just need to stay in the playoff race. with daquan and milano both presumably coming back, we can run the table if/when we get in. i love the additions of douglas and joseph. kincaid is emerging. we're finally utilizing shakir in a role that he can excel at. adding fournette into the mix will help us big time. so we are still a contender despite this bad run. maybe people can't see it now. that's fine. but that locker room is a powder keg for success. just need a couple of details to line up for us and the sky is the limit. dare i say we can go all the way????? definitely not afraid to. this team can still do it. it might even be their destiny

 

[Selanne00008]

Reggie Gilliam is making $2.2 million next season.

Siran Neal is making $3.4 million.

Deonte Harty is making $5.3 million.

Nyheim Hines is making $5.5 million.

Mitch Morse is making $11.5 million!!!

Tre White is making $16.6 million.

Cliff notes version: on a roster that's really struggling to score, I think I'd find some other ways to free up money than cutting/moving the guy that contributes 500+ yards of offense and 5+TDs a year for $15 million a season.

Don't disagree with any of those cuts/restructures. I would just, add Knox to that list. He would be the second highest # on that list.

500+ yards and 5TDs (if ever healthy) is pretty ho hum in he TE world. Especially when you have a Kincaid now. Paying 15m for Knox seems very egregious.

The other reason is.. How has the 12 personnel worked for us? We were at least alive and running going the 3 WR set with Kinkaid out there. Having 18+ million tied up into 2 TE sets that doesn't push the ball down the field isn't optimal. I'd rather role Kinkaid and a Cheaper blocking TE is all.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

 

[stealth1]

A good video on some insight on why the offense struggles. The gist of it is they lack playmakers outside of Diggs and Allen.

 

[Jim Bob]

A good video on some insight on why the offense struggles. The gist of it is they lack playmakers outside of Diggs and Allen.

Kincaid and Shakir say hi.

 

[Dirty Dog]

A good video on some insight on why the offense struggles. The gist of it is they lack playmakers outside of Diggs and Allen.

I really don’t think that is accurate at all.

 

[stealth1]

I really don’t think that is accurate at all.

Did you watch the video? They make some really good points.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Did you watch the video? They make some really good points.

Yea, it seems like commentary from two people that haven’t watched the bills. They have the players to be an extremely versatile offense with a ton of talent. It’s why the bills are top 5 in most offensive stats despite being extremely inconsistent.

We have seen the team march up and down the field in plenty of different ways. The lack of playmakers isn’t an issue then.

And a lack of playmakers is not why drives are ending due to turnovers, penalties, or poor execution

 

[stealth1]

Yea, it seems like commentary from two people that haven’t watched the bills. They have the players to be an extremely versatile offense with a ton of talent. It’s why the bills are top 5 in most offensive stats despite being extremely inconsistent.

We have seen the team march up and down the field in plenty of different ways. The lack of playmakers isn’t an issue then.

And a lack of playmakers is not why drives are ending due to turnovers, penalties, or poor execution

If it's not talent then what's changed? Weeks 2 to 4 they put up over 35 a game. The last few weeks they struggle to get to 20 points.

I will say the one point that I agree with in that video is going all in to win a Super Bowl. After the 13 second game season they should have loaded up on guys like Henry and Hopkins. IMO that was their best chance to win.

 

[Jim Bob]

If it's not talent then what's changed? Weeks 2 to 4 they put up over 35 a game. The last few weeks they struggle to get to 20 points.

I will say the one point that I agree with in that video is going all in to win a Super Bowl. After the 13 second game season they should have loaded up on guys like Henry and Hopkins. IMO that was their best chance to win.

They are inconsistent on offense and it has nothing to do with the "playmakers".

One big challenge is that they have taken away some of the things that has made the offense go in the past and looked better when they have let Josh be Josh a little more.

The big issue right now is that the coaches have actually tried to make some changes that fans and media clamored for like having Josh run less to limit wear and tear and adding in easier passes and limit deep shots.

Well, Josh is running a lot less, leads the NFL in completion percentage, and his ADOT is way down. They also are the league best at converting on 3rd downs.

Yet, the offense isn't consistent.

I think the biggest issue is that Josh is having a hard time dealing with the offense being less of The Josh Allen Experience. And their defense has stopped creating turnovers and they are not getting short field drive starts.

 

[buffa dud]

If it's not talent then what's changed? Weeks 2 to 4 they put up over 35 a game. The last few weeks they struggle to get to 20 points.

I will say the one point that I agree with in that video is going all in to win a Super Bowl. After the 13 second game season they should have loaded up on guys like Henry and Hopkins. IMO that was their best chance to win.

After 13 seconds, Beane went out and invested in the best pass-rusher that was available on the market because the Bills couldn't touch Mahomes. And then Miller's knee exploded.

After Tre's knee exploded, Beane invested a first-round pick in a cornerback with a first-round grade, along with a sixth.

After Allen sustained a UCL injury because the Bills couldn't protect their franchise QB to save their lives, he drafted a first-round graded offensive-lineman in the second-round, and then signed a veteran upgrade at the LG position.

When the offense struggled in the short game, due in part to Allen's elbow injury, Beane invested a first-round draft pick in the player with the best rated hands (full stop.)

Every time this team has faced adversity in the way of personnel issues, this GM has done due dilligence in working the cap as much as possible to afford the organization some cap flexibility. And then he acts. This is not a Darcy Regeir situation, where the GM is incapable of or unwilling to make roster changes. And there is no guarantee that "loading up on guys like Henry and Hopkins" would have changed the outcome of the games. You're hoping, but there is no guarantee.

 

[Husko]

I don't think we need to be dismissive of criticism of the Bills offensive weapons. The way Gabe goes invisible (whether you want to blame his ability, his role, or a combo of both) for entire games at a time is a big part of the problem. So is losing Knox, killing their 12 personnel options. So is Harty and Sherfield failing to be meaningful contributors thus far.

That doesn't mean going out and signing a Hopkins would fix all the issues overnight. It's a piece of the puzzle, along with playcalling, design, Josh boneheaded mistakes, occasional Oline woes, and other factors as well I'm sure.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't think we need to be dismissive of criticism of the Bills offensive weapons. The way Gabe goes invisible (whether you want to blame his ability, his role, or a combo of both) for entire games at a time is a big part of the problem. So is losing Knox, killing their 12 personnel options. So is Harty and Sherfield failing to be meaningful contributors thus far.

That doesn't mean going out and signing a Hopkins would fix all the issues overnight. It's a piece of the puzzle, along with playcalling, design, Josh boneheaded mistakes, occasional Oline woes, and other factors as well I'm sure.

I am dismissive of the statement that the Bills "have no playmakers outside of Allen & Diggs" as that is not the case whatsoever.

Kincaid and Shakir are playmakers at TE1 and WR3.

WR2 is a major issue. And Cook can be a more consistent playmaker than he has been so far this season. But, I think a big part of that is that the Bills G-C-G combo has not been great in the run game.

And no good offense counts on WR4 & WR5 to be playmakers. They are bit players that you are happy if they give you a handful of plays over the course of a season.

 

[Husko]

I am dismissive of the statement that the Bills "have no playmakers outside of Allen & Diggs" as that is not the case whatsoever.

Kincaid and Shakir are playmakers at TE1 and WR3.

WR2 is a major issue. And Cook can be a more consistent playmaker than he has been so far this season. But, I think a big part of that is that the Bills G-C-G combo has not been great in the run game.

And no good offense counts on WR4 & WR5 to be playmakers. They are bit players that you are happy if they give you a handful of plays over the course of a season.

Maybe not "playmakers," but sometimes players in that role can still play playmaking roles. Look at what the Chiefs did with Hardman as a gadget guy when they had Hill and Kelce. Or even just what the Bills used to do with McKenzie when he was WR4. I don't really understand why Harris isn't at least being used in that way. Just one or two flash plays out of him would do wonders for the offense, because teams would have to respect motion a lot more.

 

[Jim Bob]

Maybe not "playmakers," but sometimes players in that role can still play playmaking roles. Look at what the Chiefs did with Hardman as a gadget guy when they had Hill and Kelce. Or even just what the Bills used to do with McKenzie when he was WR4. I don't really understand why Harris isn't at least being used in that way. Just one or two flash plays out of him would do wonders for the offense, because teams would have to respect motion a lot more.

That still talks to usage and not a lack of players that might be able to make plays on the roster.

I think the biggest issue with the offense is the high variance in execution and decision making by the players.

 

[Dirty Dog]

That still talks to usage and not a lack of players that might be able to make plays on the roster.

I think the biggest issue with the offense is the high variance in execution and decision making by the players.

It’s also an unbelievable amount of bad luck. Where the bills are with point differential, stats, underlying stats, etc…..their record is very unlikely. Just about every game you can point to 2-3 crucial mistakes that cost them.

Look, I think they have some big picture issues like a lack of an identity. But they have the talent to win out and get a Super Bowl ring

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Zman5778]

Yeah, I've gotta agree that we don't suffer from a lack of playmakers. Allen, Diggs, Kincaid and Cook can make plays, full stop. Shakir can make plays with the ball in his hand from a YAC perspective. Harty can make plays in the open field.

The issues are, right now, scheme and execution. Dorsey isn't doing a great job scheming our playmakers open. It isn't an issue with Diggs (or to a lesser extent, Kincaid) because he/they know how to get open regardless of playcall. Dorsey seems to be figuring out how to use Shakir. I wish he'd figure out how to use Cook more.

But all of this doesn't matter if Allen is misfiring, looking at the wrong person/side of the field, scrambling for his life or on his ass.

The "Bills don't have enough playmakers" is overly simplistic and non-nuanced. The Bills' offensive issues are far more complex with that.

Would a "better" WR2 help? Sure, more talent is always better than less talent (as long as that talent has the right attitude). But it still requires Dorsey to know how to use that better talent and Josh (and the players) to execute it right.

 

[Zman5778]

Was there an easier throw available on the INT? (genuine question, I can't remember)

 

[Jim Bob]

Yeah, I've gotta agree that we don't suffer from a lack of playmakers. Allen, Diggs, Kincaid and Cook can make plays, full stop. Shakir can make plays with the ball in his hand from a YAC perspective. Harty can make plays in the open field.

The issues are, right now, scheme and execution. Dorsey isn't doing a great job scheming our playmakers open. It isn't an issue with Diggs (or to a lesser extent, Kincaid) because he/they know how to get open regardless of playcall. Dorsey seems to be figuring out how to use Shakir. I wish he'd figure out how to use Cook more.

But all of this doesn't matter if Allen is misfiring, looking at the wrong person/side of the field, scrambling for his life or on his ass.

The "Bills don't have enough playmakers" is overly simplistic and non-nuanced. The Bills' offensive issues are far more complex with that.

Would a "better" WR2 help? Sure, more talent is always better than less talent (as long as that talent has the right attitude). But it still requires Dorsey to know how to use that better talent and Josh (and the players) to execute it right.

I have a hard time squaring the take that "Dorsey isn't doing a great job scheming our playmakers open" with the fact that Allen is having his best season ever with regards to completion% and things like this:

Shakir and Kincaid are the only non-RBs in the top 10 in Catch% this season.

And Shakir is the only WR in the top 20.

That does not happen if the OC is failing to scheme guys open, IMO.