Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Jim Bob]

I think your read on Adams is 100% correct and those are my expectations are well.

However, I think the problem becomes that his plan is, essentially, another near cap floor team, and burning the valuable ELC years of the team This will be the last time you'll have Power/Dahlin/Krebs/Quinn/Peterka for well under 12M total. There is a true opportunity here to supplement your young team and make big gains.

I think the real challenge is that the ideas on who to supplement seem easier on the internet than they likely are in real life.

 

[Chainshot]

To add on my previous point about how our roster isn't really primed for playoff success, I want to point out the following stats. The Sabres ranked dead last in the following:

- Shot quality per shot allowed at 5 on 5
- Odd man rushes allowed per game
- High danger scoring chances allowed per game
- Scoring chances off the rush allowed per game
- Shots taken with net-front presence
- Faceoff percentage
- Blocked shots
- Percentage of shots blocked
- Hits per game
- Hit differential

Notable bottom 5 stats:

- 4th worst PK percentage
- 3rd fewest goals scored via rebounds
- 5th worst save percentage
- 5th worst goals against per 60
- 4th most shots on goal against
- 2nd fewest forecheck retrievals per 60

* Stats via Evolving-Hockey, MoneyPuck, Stathletes and AllThreeZones

I'll also throw in that we had the best penalty differential, and the highest share of PP time in the league (not a sticky stat - could say we were somewhat lucky there).

What's my point with this? I don't think that we're a bad team, but the stats that I pointed out matter much more in the playoffs. I understand that hits and even faceoffs are tracked poorly, and that blocked shots doesn't have a direct correlation with winning (even though it shouldn't have to). Watching these games and seeing how well each team defends the blue line, crashes the net on both offense and defense, sells out to block shots, gets those tip-in and rebound goals is really eye-opening, and is part of what prompted me to write these past few posts. It's such a stark contrast to how we see the Sabres play. Our over-reliance on creating off the rush and our inability to defend our blue line, in combination with all of the other things makes me have big concerns to how this groups play will translate in the playoffs. I think it's also a byproduct of having such a young team. While I hope that the Sabres (more importantly, Granato) will have an improved focus on this going forward, I just don't see it happening in the near future.

As a side-note, being last in shots taken with net-front presence probably bothers me more than anything else. Not only is it important at getting some of those "ugly" goals - but I also think about some of our young players and how they've done well being able to deceive their shot when they have a teammate in front of them (Quinn, Peterka, Savoie). Savoie in particular seems to excel at scoring when he has a guy in front of him even acting as a semi-screen, as he can get his shot off quick and the goalie won't even see it come off his stick. Just something to look for going forward.

Also terrible, I believe they tracked out as 2nd worst or worst at defending their blueline, just to add to the depth of the issues they need to fix. They were bad at defending in part by being loose with their puck security leading to odd-man rushes against but they are also poor at standing up a rush at the blueline beyond those folks having an odd-man advantage.

There is no singular fix to what ails them. It won't be just a goalie. It won't just be a partner who compensates for Power's deficiencies (or accentuates his strengths). It won't be winning one more faceoff out of every 10. And it won't be cured by getting smaller and less physical to score more off the rush too. There is a lot for them to address.

For the returning folks, it will take guys being willing to work harder and skate further per shift. A consistency of effort to be on the right side of the puck is part of the fix that everyone returning can bring to the ice to win a matchup and reduce the loosey-goosey stuff that too much of the forward core participate in. We know when they do it we get games like that road trip to Dallas/Minny/Winnipeg where they took it to teams and controlled shot volume and chances while not sacrificing offense. They can do it more, that threshold has to be what they're holding each other to.

Stick detail? Let's talk about stick detail... better yet, let's not, that is probably a thread unto itself. Let's sum up that it's not good and needs to be better.

A couple of personnel improvements will help. But the other 17-18 returning players have to work on their game because one new guy isn't going to fix all of this and it would be unfair to judge an acquisition as being the only solution to their problems. Yet Sabre fans have often looked to a singular player as either solution or scapegoat for what are systemic challenges.

Agreed on your post, good stuff and they have far to go before they are done.

 

[Chainshot]

Don't ask, because you probably don't want to know the asking cost from the Yotes.

Ask?

I must, I must!

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I'd say 23 1st and another piece that really hurts.

Given the Sabres makeup, it is actually a move that could really work out, but convincing this board (or Adams) to pay the asking price will be extremely difficult.

If it is after Keller's 45 day window, then it's after this year's draft. My assumption is that it would take one of the Kulich or Savoie tandem and then another piece like a future first.

 

[Fjordy]

Adams acquired Greenway, they will probably develop him, not trade for Crouse.

 

[unte93]

There used to be a Rochester thread - i cant find it anymore - is it deleated?

 

[Irie]

Tanev for Joker could make a good bit of sense for both teams IMHO. Though I think that would be a pure rental type situation for Buffalo.

The NTC is probably the biggest impediment.

The age is a big concern, though his best season was probably a year ago.

I think it would be realistic to expect 34 year old Tanev to miss some games next season, so if Joker is moved out, top four depth is still a big problem.

I am also not sure Jokiharju has much trade value around the league ATM. We know he will have zero value on the main board thanks to a certain negative Nancy ranting there everyday about how terrible he is, so good luck getting any constructive feedback from this site.

How much is Adams willing to add in a deal like this (my guess is very little), and how does Adams then address the still lingering depth issue?

 

[BUCKSHOT]

There used to be a Rochester thread - i cant find it anymore - is it deleated?

Rochester and Cincinnati All-Purpose Thread 2022-2023 Season (Conference Finals: Hershey wins 4-2)

About time to get this one going. Rochester gonna need a lot of vets, especially on D. Use this thread to discuss!!!!

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Fjordy]

I think it would be realistic to expect 34 year old Tanev to miss some games next season, so if Joker is moved out, top four depth is still a big problem.

I am also not sure Jokiharju has much trade value around the league ATM. We know he will have zero value on the main board thanks to a certain negative Nancy ranting there everyday about how terrible he is, so good luck getting any constructive feedback from this site.

How much is Adams willing to add in a deal like this (my guess is very little), and how does Adams then address the still lingering depth issue?

It's easy to sign another defenseman for the third pair if the Joker gone. You can even get player in trade cheap or free.

 

[Chainshot]

I think it would be realistic to expect 34 year old Tanev to miss some games next season, so if Joker is moved out, top four depth is still a big problem.

I am also not sure Jokiharju has much trade value around the league ATM. We know he will have zero value on the main board thanks to a certain negative Nancy ranting there everyday about how terrible he is, so good luck getting any constructive feedback from this site.

How much is Adams willing to add in a deal like this (my guess is very little), and how does Adams then address the still lingering depth issue?

That's where my thought that they look to acquire a top 4 capable defenseman to add to the group from last year so that they can have additional coverage rather than having to find two players by removing Jokiharju too. One defenseman for the summer, that's key.

 

[Irie]

It's easy to sign another defenseman for the third pair if the Joker gone. You can even get player in trade cheap or free.

But we are talking about top four insurance for when Tanev is out, not more bottom pairing solutions. That is part of the reason jokiharju on the third pairing is attractive. He gives you a passable short-term emergency depth insurance.

 

[Fjordy]

But we are talking about top four insurance for when Tanev is out, not more bottom pairing solutions. That is part of the reason jokiharju on the third pairing is attractive. He gives you a passable short-term emergency depth insurance.

Sign Soucy for example or someone like that. None of Jokiharju and Boosh wants to sit in the press box. They will have to make a decision.

The problem was that our entire defense depth was small and not physical (Bryson, Pilut, Clague), they couldn't replace Samuelsson even partially, they couldn't play since he's in physical. game, in defense and on PK. We need someone like that for the third pair.

Alec Martinez maybe good, if VGK need cap.

 

[Irie]

Sign Soucy for example or someone like that. None of Jokiharju and Boosh wants to sit in the press box. They will have to make a decision.

The problem was that our entire defense depth was small and not physical (Bryson, Pilut, Clague), they couldn't replace Samuelsson even partially, they couldn't play since he's in physical. game, in defense and on PK. We need someone like that for the third pair.

Alec Martinez maybe good, if VGK need cap.

Sign soucy is easier said than done.

1. I believe there will be a lot of teams competing for his services.

2. I think he will get a lot more than the internet contract estimation sites are predicting, which likely prices him out of Adams shopping list.

I would love for the Sabres to sign him, I just don't think it is in the cards.

 

[Fjordy]

Sign soucy is easier said than done.

1. I believe there will be a lot of teams competing for his services.

2. I think he will get a lot more than the internet contract estimation sites are predicting, which likely prices him out of Adams shopping list.

I would love for the Sabres to sign him, I just don't think it is in the cards.

I gave an example of two players, I think there are many more. Just what are we talking about here? I don't mind keeping Joki as long as he is not in the top 4, but if for example Calgary asks Joki as the main part of the deal for Tanev, I would do it. Although, of course, at first I might try to get guys like Tanev or DeMelo at the expense of 2nd+ maybe.

 

[Irie]

I gave an example of two players, I think there are many more. Just what are we talking about here? I don't mind keeping Joki as long as he is not in the top 4, but if for example Calgary asks Joki as the main part of the deal for Tanev, I would do it. Although, of course, at first I might try to get guys like Tanev or DeMelo at the expense of 2nd+ maybe.

I am not saying you don't trade Joker for a top four upgrade, was just pointing out to TehDoak that if he is moved in the package, the big issue of legitimate top four insurance is still an issue.

We will have to watch several clubs in the coming weeks to see which direction their new front offices are going. Some guys we are assuming may be available may no longer be, and others we never thought would be an option may pop up.

 

[Fjordy]

I am not saying you don't trade Joker for a top four upgrade, was just pointing out to TehDoak that if he is moved in the package, the big issue of legitimate top four insurance is still an issue.

We will have to watch several clubs in the coming weeks to see which direction their new front offices are going. Some guys we are assuming may be available may no longer be, and others we never thought would be an option may pop up.

I'm sure you can find a lot of players for insurance.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

So if Keller's demands lead to him being dealt, and as RT mentioned Crouse is probably right behind... what's the offer for Crouse since that sort of player in their top 6 is something they could use/need. Is that a player who an offer touches the untouchables?

A few months ago I said I’d trade JJ for him. A few posters said that’s an overpay, but I don’t think it is. You’re trading away a top 6 forward for a top 6 forward that’s a team captain and brings things to the table JJ doesn’t bring.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

What are folks thoughts on Dumba? I've always hated the idea of trading for him, but now that he'll be free...I'm wondering if that's something Adams is weighing heavily right now.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/screen-shots-patrick-roy-calgary-flames-matt-dumba-and-buffalo-sabres

 

[Fjordy]

A few months ago I said I’d trade JJ for him. A few posters said that’s an overpay, but I don’t think it is. You’re trading away a top 6 forward for a top 6 forward that’s a team captain and brings things to the table JJ doesn’t bring.

Is Crouse a legit top 6 forward? Adams just traded for Greenway, he had similar seasons with Crouse. Only one pulled ahead, and the second braked, but Granato can work with him. It will be a shame if Peterka becomes a PPG winger and Crouse is just a 30-point physical player in our bottom 6.

 

[TehDoak]

I think the real challenge is that the ideas on who to supplement seem easier on the internet than they likely are in real life.

It's always harder in real life than on paper. However, it'd be nice to see the front office start using all available assets to improve the team, rather than sitting on a pile of unused cap space like Smaug in the mountain.

I think it would be realistic to expect 34 year old Tanev to miss some games next season, so if Joker is moved out, top four depth is still a big problem.

I am also not sure Jokiharju has much trade value around the league ATM. We know he will have zero value on the main board thanks to a certain negative Nancy ranting there everyday about how terrible he is, so good luck getting any constructive feedback from this site.

How much is Adams willing to add in a deal like this (my guess is very little), and how does Adams then address the still lingering depth issue?

Joker is a decent offensive d-man who struggles in his own zone. He's a bottom pairing d-man who can play further up in the lineup for short spurts. I think given the lack of long term d-man in Calgary outside of Weegar right now, getting some youth in there (a stated goal of the new GM) could make some sense. He could play down the lineup behind Andersson and Weegar and perhaps step into a bigger role next year.

That's where my thought that they look to acquire a top 4 capable defenseman to add to the group from last year so that they can have additional coverage rather than having to find two players by removing Jokiharju too. One defenseman for the summer, that's key.

I'm not opposed to doing a trade for a d-man and sign a D-man, especially in the short term. Having Stillman as a 7 would be a good place to be. I wonder how the appetite is for either a buyout or having Bryson start in Rochester ala Bjork last year

What are folks thoughts on Dumba? I've always hated the idea of trading for him, but now that he'll be free...I'm wondering if that's something Adams is weighing heavily right now.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/screen-shots-patrick-roy-calgary-flames-matt-dumba-and-buffalo-sabres

I mean, I wouldn't give him term but I'd pay top of the market cash wise. My magic number is 4 years, provided they got 10.2c McAvoy-esque bridge with Power. That way Dumba's contract would fall off as Power needs a big UFA year eating extension. That'd also give us our top 4 locked in for a few years to rebuild the D pipeline.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Anaheim fans think the Ducks won't even tender Comtois, so it's just a way to get ahead in the process.

If the Jets ask for Rosen instead of Rousek, I wouldn't make the deal, and look elsewhere.

The Sabres will need players like Comtois and Jones. Look at the rosters of the final four teams. Who on the Sabres are going into the corner to win puck battles consistently? Putting a physical forecheck on the defenders?

That would be funny!

Power forwards tend to develop later so I'm not super worried about his NCAA production.

So you won't use Rosen to get a top 5 goalie but you'll use him to help get 2 4th line grinders?

I do agree we can use more of those type of players but I much rather use Rosen to get me a top 4 d man or a goalie like Hellebuyck

 

[Fjordy]

So you won't use Rosen to get a top 5 goalie but you'll use him to help get 2 4th line grinders?

I do agree we can use more of those type of players but I much rather use Rosen to get me a top 4 d man or a goalie like Hellebuyck

This is Rosen for Helleson, not for Comtois or Jones. Helleson RD, Manson/Samuelsson type.

 

[Der Jaeger]

So you won't use Rosen to get a top 5 goalie but you'll use him to help get 2 4th line grinders?

I do agree we can use more of those type of players but I much rather use Rosen to get me a top 4 d man or a goalie like Hellebuyck

See Below.....

This is Rosen for Helleson, not for Comtois or Jones. Helleson RD, Manson/Samuelsson type.

View attachment 712239

And there goes my plan......

 

[Dingo44]

What are folks thoughts on Dumba? I've always hated the idea of trading for him, but now that he'll be free...I'm wondering if that's something Adams is weighing heavily right now.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/screen-shots-patrick-roy-calgary-flames-matt-dumba-and-buffalo-sabres

Yuck. He's done and he'll be overpaid. Plus that hit on Pavelski was predatory.

 

[Dubi Doo]

View attachment 712239

I was hoping we'd move on and revamp the bottom 6, though maybe he'll have more gas in the tank if he plays actual 4th line minutes.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

See Below.....



And there goes my plan......

This is Rosen for Helleson, not for Comtois or Jones. Helleson RD, Manson/Samuelsson type.

I like Helleson but I rather use Rosen for bigger needs... A top 4 Dman and a starting goalie are wayyy more important for this team then a Helleson, a Comtois and a Jones...