Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[RefsIdeas]

Why are you posting charts that don’t really matter? What do you think you’re telling me with them?

I’ll start with the first one. It’s a micro stats chart that samples only 11 games and compares that sample to 185 other dmen’s similarly small samples. The only way you can get to 185 defenseman is including everyone from #1 dmen to 6/7 dmen. What possible value could that info hold with such flawed underlying metrics? I don’t want to bash the work Corey does because I know it’s very time consuming. But it doesn’t change the limited and flawed nature of it.

The 2nd one is an Even strength and Power Play RAPM chart. I’m talking about his usage 5v5. It’s like you wanted to pile on bashing Joker but didn’t pay attention to the details.

The analytics community in general, and Sabres twitter in particular, deserve a smack for convincing people these charts mean more than they could possibly tell us.


Joker’s 5v5 underlying stats per NST.
CF% ——> 51%
SF% ——> 48%
SCF% —-> 50%
HDCF% -> 47%
GF% ——-> 45%
xGF% ——> 49%
OZS% —-> 48%

I generally don‘t use GF% as an underlying metric but as a benchmark to compare the other underlying numbers against (Are they under or over performing their numbers). But I included it here. That looks like a guy who did about as well as could be expected relative to who he is as a player and in the role he was tasked with. I can certainly say he came pretty close to breaking even. But “breaking even“ or “coming close” doesn’t really matter to the point I was making.


A good bottom pairing dman plays about 15mins atoi 5v5. You’d want at least 14+mins.

-Boosh averaged 12:43 for the year and played 9mins or so during the most important games at the end of the season.

-Joker averaged 18:15 a night and played 20+mins during the most important games at the end of the season.

The idea Joker is behind Boosh is disconnected from reality.

Alright

I will preface this by saying that I tend to think people overstate the impact of the underlyings for the most part. I've been in many debates about this, and it just comes down to the fact that the public tracking data for the NHL is awful - for pretty much everything (including faceoffs, hits, xgf etc). So, I'm with you there. Also, I want to clarify my position on Joker. I agree that he's probably better off on a third pairing role - and by saying that he's not moving Boosh out of that spot isn't a knock on Joker, but Boosh brings something to our lineup that very few other players do. Jokiharju is best suited for a role that doesn't currently exist on the Sabres defense pairings. Anyways, onto your post.

1. You tried to discredit Jokiharju's RAPM chart because I "didn't pay attention to the details" because it's an EV chart and not 5 on 5. Guess how many minutes Joker played at EV that wasn't 5 on 5? 35 minutes of his 1130:46 total. I don't think that's a big enough impact to suddenly change his charts. Of all the underlyings - I actually like RAPM the best because it's one of the few charts that takes into consideration deployments (I still think there needs to be more done when it comes to on-the-fly starts, considering they're not at all created equal). Anyways, it shows him being below average pretty much across the board.

2. I don't disagree that Corey has a fairly small sample size - however again, I don't anticipate the numbers would drastically change. We can look at pretty much any data point available to us and it's going to show us that Jokiharju isn't that great defensively. I have access to the highest plans of all the major analytics websites/Patreon's and I don't believe there is one thing I could try and twist to show you that he's an even average defenseman. Corey (accurately) points out that he's particularly bad at zone entry denials - that passes the smell test to me.

3. Pointing out his underlying raw numbers isn't really doing much - especially if you're going with "he's basically breaking even" as your argument. He's below average at pretty much everything except CF% - on a team that was (surprisingly) above average in CF% as a whole - so he's actually a negative when it comes to relative rates. Again, every single data point is telling us he's below average.

I do agree that him being 28th in TOI at 5 on 5 is silly. We do need our bottom pair to play more and to roll a more balanced three defensive pairs, but it still leaves Jokiharju in no-mans-land for me. Are we going to bench Boosh for Joki, removing one of a handful of players that actually brings a physical element to the game, and perhaps our only defenseman that can somewhat clear the front of the net? He just doesn't have a place here.

 

[Irie]

You’ll find no argument from me that our goalies were put in a tough spot more often than not. However it’s hard to rectify some of the basic goalie mechanics that UPL (and Comrie) struggled with on a consistent basis.

I’m not too interested in talking about the handful of good games that UPL or Comrie had. Consistency is key with goaltending - and none of our goaltenders (perhaps sans Levi) performed with any sort of consistency. Yes, UPL is young but he’s shown me enough at both the AHL and NHL level to this point that his game isn’t improving as it should be. You’re free to disagree on that point though!

Living on the westcoast, I do not have the time or means of watching Rochester regularly,I watch a lot of NHl and WHL hockey, and there is only so much hockey one person can follow, (unless their name is Chainshot From most of the discussions I have read on these boards, UPL has performed better at the NHL level than the AHL, I will admit that his lack of success in Rochester is concerning, but as someone that has only watched his NHL body of work, I feel I am not being influenced by maybe a bias that I would be if I watched him with the Amerks.

What I see at the NHL level is a young goalie who gets across the crease with surprising quickness for his size and seems to be extremely athletic, but is still raw, kicks rebounds back into play instead of redirecting them, struggles with fighting off screens, needs to better evaluate when to challenge and when to play deeper in the crease, and has yet to figure out that you can't cheat to cover a pass against NHL shooters.

He is a work in progress, but at 23, I see more starter potential than bust potential. In games where the team has limited how spectacular he has to be, he has mostly been solid. I feel strongly that anyone that only watched his sabres games can't call him terrible, which makes me think there is a lot of his play with Rochester that is coming into these evaluations.

 

[Bendium]

Apparently, we’ve reached the point of the offseason where we rationalize that even our bad players are good. I’m waiting for the “actually Bryson isn’t bad” post to come along.

Bryson isn't bad. He is TERRIBLE! Please hockey GODS, don't make me watch Bryson in a Sabres uniform again!

Bryson, Joker, and Olofsson are all good tank commanders. They give you enough good play to make fans think its going somewhere, but somehow at the end of the day, they have had a net negative effect on winning, and the high draft picks just keep rollin in!

 

[joshjull]

Alright

I will preface this by saying that I tend to think people overstate the impact of the underlyings for the most part. I've been in many debates about this, and it just comes down to the fact that the public tracking data for the NHL is awful - for pretty much everything (including faceoffs, hits, xgf etc). So, I'm with you there. Also, I want to clarify my position on Joker. I agree that he's probably better off on a third pairing role - and by saying that he's not moving Boosh out of that spot isn't a knock on Joker, but Boosh brings something to our lineup that very few other players do. Jokiharju is best suited for a role that doesn't currently exist on the Sabres defense pairings. Anyways, onto your post.

First off, thanks for this response.

Boosh does bring something Joker doesn’t. But they don’t trust him to play enough with any of the other depth options to cut down the workload of the top 4. I think Joker/Boosh would fix that. Because Joker brings something Boosh doesn’t; trust from the coaching staff and a transition game. Skills that would blend well with Boosh. I doubt they’ll care about handedness since they're open to four lefties in the top 4.

1. You tried to discredit Jokiharju's RAPM chart because I "didn't pay attention to the details" because it's an EV chart and not 5 on 5. Guess how many minutes Joker played at EV that wasn't 5 on 5? 35 minutes of his 1130:46 total. I don't think that's a big enough impact to suddenly change his charts. Of all the underlyings - I actually like RAPM the best because it's one of the few charts that takes into consideration deployments (I still think there needs to be more done when it comes to on-the-fly starts, considering they're not at all created equal). Anyways, it shows him being below average pretty much across the board.

I reacted the way I did to the RAPM chart because I thought it was piling on after the micro stats chart. Since half of it is irrelevant to 5v5 play. But I shouldn’t have been as snarky as I was, so sorry about that.

My issue with RAPM charts aren’t really with the charts themselves. It’s how people use them. That can’t tells us as much as some people think they can (not referring to you).

2. I don't disagree that Corey has a fairly small sample size - however again, I don't anticipate the numbers would drastically change. We can look at pretty much any data point available to us and it's going to show us that Jokiharju isn't that great defensively. I have access to the highest plans of all the major analytics websites/Patreon's and I don't believe there is one thing I could try and twist to show you that he's an even average defenseman. Corey (accurately) points out that he's particularly bad at zone entry denials - that passes the smell test to me.

The problem I have with Corey’s stats isn‘t just that sample size is too small. It’s that the overall data set is WAY too broad. I don’t think we can get much from them.

3. Pointing out his underlying raw numbers isn't really doing much - especially if you're going with "he's basically breaking even" as your argument. He's below average at pretty much everything except CF% - on a team that was (surprisingly) above average in CF% as a whole - so he's actually a negative when it comes to relative rates. Again, every single data point is telling us he's below average.

It’s not supposed to. Let me see if I can explain this better. Since I’m not doing a great job so far. The realistic expectation for Joker in this past seasons usage/minutes was that he was going to struggle. As in being below average Is not surprising.

But I take a positive from the fact that he wasn’t completely buried in his raw numbers in his current role. Because I think it’s fair to assume his raw numbers will improve, possibly a lot, playing fewer minutes in a much easier role that also better suits him. Thus improving the other metrics (the charts that are currently below average) to at least average but I believe would be even better.

Hopefully that makes sense.

I do agree that him being 28th in TOI at 5 on 5 is silly. We do need our bottom pair to play more and to roll a more balanced three defensive pairs, but it still leaves Jokiharju in no-mans-land for me. Are we going to bench Boosh for Joki, removing one of a handful of players that actually brings a physical element to the game, and perhaps our only defenseman that can somewhat clear the front of the net? He just doesn't have a place here.

See my initial comments above about Boosh/Joker.

 

[joshjull]

You’ll find no argument from me that our goalies were put in a tough spot more often than not. However it’s hard to rectify some of the basic goalie mechanics that UPL (and Comrie) struggled with on a consistent basis.

I’m not too interested in talking about the handful of good games that UPL or Comrie had. Consistency is key with goaltending - and none of our goaltenders (perhaps sans Levi) performed with any sort of consistency. Yes, UPL is young but he’s shown me enough at both the AHL and NHL level to this point that his game isn’t improving as it should be. You’re free to disagree on that point though!

UPL had two good months. Not a handful of games. His Dec/Jan helped get us back into the playoff race after the 8gm losing streak (he was rookie of the month in Jan). Then he struggled a lot for the next two months. He seemed to get his game back on track in his last start. But he didn’t get a chance to build on it with Levi taking the net to end the year. I don’t think it’s a coincidence UPL’s good last start happened after Levi’s first game. Nothing like a guy gunning for you to elevate your game.

I don’t know what to expect from him next season. But he wasn’t able to start properly developing until the previous season (21-22). Double hip surgery and Covid derailed his first two pro seasons. Too early to say what he’ll be. But your correct that he hasn’t been consistent enough yet to count on.

 

[TehDoak]

UPL had two good months. Not a handful of games. His Dec/Jan helped get us back into the playoff race after the 8gm losing streak (he was rookie of the month in Jan). Then he struggled a lot for the next two months. He seemed to get his game back on track in his last start. But he didn’t get a chance to build on it with Levi taking the net to end the year. I don’t think it’s a coincidence UPL’s good last start happened after Levi’s first game. Nothing like a guy gunning for you to elevate your game.

I don’t know what to expect from him next season. But he wasn’t able to start properly developing until the previous season (21-22). Double hip surgery and Covid derailed his first two pro seasons. Too early to say what he’ll be. But your correct that he hasn’t been consistent enough yet to count on.

Next season is far too important in regards to franchise progress to roll the dice on the goalies again.
I'm fine with bringing back UPL....with a veteran who will handle most of the starts and can mentor him.

UPL seems like a Devon Dubnyk type late bloomer.

My ideal is probably Vet/UPL, Levi to Rochester, Comrie to waivers/buyout.

 

[joshjull]

Lol. I don't base all my opinions on players that I have watched closely on stats. Your "the stats!" argument isn't really a winner here anyway.

View attachment 711896

Below average on the PP when he's gotten the chance, bad on the pk, bad offensively at 5v5, barely average defensively at 5v5, not physical, not a great skater, questionable decisions with the puck under pressure. I repeat, he's not the worst player in the world, but we're not going anywhere as long as he's playing a big role on this team.

What exactly doesn't make sense to you? Is it my opinion that his spot should go to better players? Or just the fact that I said I wouldn't riot if I didn't get my way? Lol. Or was it that I prefer different players, (who btw I said also should be upgraded)?

Which part are you having trouble understanding?

Why do you think I’m confused?

I stated something you posted didn’t make sense and explained why I thought that. Then asked why you think Joker needed to play sheltered 3rd pairing minutes. You quoted me and bolded that question. Then never really answered it with this post.

 

[Jim Bob]

Conroy plans to prioritize youth, asset management as Flames GM

Craig Conroy is aware that he has his work cut out for him as the new general manager of the Calgary Flames.Several key Flames players are entering the final year of their contracts before they can become unrestricted free agents, including Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Backlund, Noah...

www.thescore.com

Craig Conroy is aware that he has his work cut out for him as the new general manager of the Calgary Flames.

Several key Flames players are entering the final year of their contracts before they can become unrestricted free agents, including Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin, and Chris Tanev. Conroy needs some clarity before the start of the 2023-24 campaign.

"We can't go into a season with seven UFAs," Conroy said during his introductory press conference Tuesday. "It just doesn't make sense."


Conroy, who's been the Flames' assistant GM for the last nine seasons, said that Johnny Gaudreau's exit in free agency last summer taught him a valuable lesson.

"I was hoping Johnny was going to come back," Conroy said. "I thought Johnny was going to come back, but I don't think I would let that happen again."

He added: "You just lost an asset, one of your best players of all time, and you didn't get anything for him. That was a real eye-opener for me."

Extending all of his key upcoming free agents would be highly difficult, so Conroy isn't opposed to shaking the team up. One way he plans to do so is by injecting some youth.

"I think we're going to change the core a little bit," Conroy said. "Not the core pieces, but I think we're going to add some youth to the lineup."

He added: "It's easier to play veteran players, but we need to move forward. We have a salary cap. Young players definitely help the salary cap."

Tanev as Owen Power's partner would not be a bad idea, IMO.

 

[Irie]

Tanev as Owen Power's partner would not be a bad idea, IMO.

Probably the best fit in my mind too in terms of style of play, but he has a history of missing time and is going to be 34 this year. The risk that the injuries catch up to him and he can no longer go or that he might seriously decline is real.

I'd be lying if I said his age didn't worry me.

 

[TehDoak]

Conroy plans to prioritize youth, asset management as Flames GM

Craig Conroy is aware that he has his work cut out for him as the new general manager of the Calgary Flames.Several key Flames players are entering the final year of their contracts before they can become unrestricted free agents, including Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Backlund, Noah...

www.thescore.com

Tanev as Owen Power's partner would not be a bad idea, IMO.

Probably the best fit in my mind too in terms of style of play, but he has a history of missing time and is going to be 34 this year. The risk that the injuries catch up to him and he can no longer go or that he might seriously decline is real.

I'd be lying if I said his age didn't worry me.

Tanev for Joker could make a good bit of sense for both teams IMHO. Though I think that would be a pure rental type situation for Buffalo.

The NTC is probably the biggest impediment.

The age is a big concern, though his best season was probably a year ago.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

Why do you think I’m confused?

I stated something you posted didn’t make sense and explained why I thought that. Then asked why you think Joker needed to play sheltered 3rd pairing minutes. You quoted me and bolded that question. Then never really answered it with this post.

I think you're confused because you said my opinion didn't make sense and then you attributed an opinion to me that i dont hold and never expressed.

Where did I say Joker needed to be sheltered? I said he should be upgraded and not in the lineup.

It seems like you're arguing just to argue. What is your actual point? That we should stick with Joki because according to some stats, he wasn't awful? Not awful doesn't win cups. That's what we're trying to do, right?

 

[Beerz]

Living on the westcoast, I do not have the time or means of watching Rochester regularly,I watch a lot of NHl and WHL hockey, and there is only so much hockey one person can follow, (unless their name is Chainshot From most of the discussions I have read on these boards, UPL has performed better at the NHL level than the AHL, I will admit that his lack of success in Rochester is concerning, but as someone that has only watched his NHL body of work, I feel I am not being influenced by maybe a bias that I would be if I watched him with the Amerks.

What I see at the NHL level is a young goalie who gets across the crease with surprising quickness for his size and seems to be extremely athletic, but is still raw, kicks rebounds back into play instead of redirecting them, struggles with fighting off screens, needs to better evaluate when to challenge and when to play deeper in the crease, and has yet to figure out that you can't cheat to cover a pass against NHL shooters.

He is a work in progress, but at 23, I see more starter potential than bust potential. In games where the team has limited how spectacular he has to be, he has mostly been solid. I feel strongly that anyone that only watched his sabres games can't call him terrible, which makes me think there is a lot of his play with Rochester that is coming into these evaluations.

I don't know man.. I think a glaring weakness of UPL is getting across the crease .. you can add the caveat "for his size" but you're either good at it or not at the end of the day and I don't think he is good at it. He is young and has potential still but im not sure he is the guy at this point. Comrie certainly isn't.

 

[RefsIdeas]

One thing I was thinking about last night is how Vegas' and Florida's roster is constructed right now in terms of age.

In terms of players that are in the lineup regularly for Vegas, the youngest guy is Brett Howden and Nic Hague at 24. The Panthers have Anton Lundell at age 21, but beyond that you'll have to go to Mahura and Luostarinen who are both 24.

The Panthers and Golden Knights combined have 3 guys aged 24 or younger seeing significant minutes on their roster right now. Last year Avs had 4. The Buffalo Sabres this year had 14! The crazy part is - we're likely to get even younger next year if Savoie/Kulich make the team.

I'm not saying that the secret formula to have success in the NHL is to have an older team - that's silly. But I do think there's a line between developing players at the NHL level and trying to win. I forgot who on here said it, but they made a good point when they said something along the lines of "are we trying to win next year, or are we trying to develop Savoie?". I think that statement can be expanded further by saying "are we trying to develop Quinn, Peterka, Savoie and Krebs, or are we trying to win?".

To be clear - I'm a fan of Peterka and Quinn, slightly less so Krebs but I still think he's a useful player. However, those types of kids on other competing teams are playing truly sheltered, third-ish line minutes. They both received sheltered minutes this year - but going forward it's going to be required that they take tougher assignments and aren't pinned to the bench in important minutes late in the game - and that's going to be tough for them. Our roster isn't constructed in such a way where we have multiple lines that can shoulder the bulk of the workload and we can put our prospects in adventageous, sheltered minutes. We NEED our young guys to produce to take the next step - and that concerns me a little.

Kevyn Adams talked before about not wanting our prospects to tread water in the NHL and he wants them to be put in a position to do well when they're here. I think at times almost all of our young guys last year were just treading water - we didn't have anybody there to displace them from the lineup.

Anyways, just food for thought when it comes to potentially signing/trading for guys. It very well be that we just have too many young players, and we're either going to have to wait it out until they reach their physical prime (which might be longer than you think!) or that a hockey trade to bring in a couple vets and/or a goalie might be a more prudent move than some on here believe. It seems like there's a narrative around here constantly that a guy is "too old" and "doesn't fit our timeline". Well, do you want to win, or do you want to develop players at the NHL level? I do think it's *somewhat* mutually exclusive in the sense that trying to develop the amount of players that we are at the same time typically isn't condusive to winning.

 

[Jim Bob]

Tanev for Joker could make a good bit of sense for both teams IMHO. Though I think that would be a pure rental type situation for Buffalo.

The NTC is probably the biggest impediment.

The age is a big concern, though his best season was probably a year ago.

I think that Tanev might be opening to waive for a few reaasons:

1) Way closer to home ala Skinner
2) He did play his one year of college hockey in Rochester, so he knows the area
3) There are far worse teams to play on and roles to be in during a contract season

One thing I was thinking about last night is how Vegas' and Florida's roster is constructed right now in terms of age.

In terms of players that are in the lineup regularly for Vegas, the youngest guy is Brett Howden and Nic Hague at 24. The Panthers have Anton Lundell at age 21, but beyond that you'll have to go to Mahura and Luostarinen who are both 24.

The Panthers and Golden Knights combined have 3 guys aged 24 or younger seeing significant minutes on their roster right now. Last year Avs had 4. The Buffalo Sabres this year had 14! The crazy part is - we're likely to get even younger next year if Savoie/Kulich make the team.

I'm not saying that the secret formula to have success in the NHL is to have an older team - that's silly. But I do think there's a line between developing players at the NHL level and trying to win. I forgot who on here said it, but they made a good point when they said something along the lines of "are we trying to win next year, or are we trying to develop Savoie?". I think that statement can be expanded further by saying "are we trying to develop Quinn, Peterka, Savoie and Krebs, or are we trying to win?".

To be clear - I'm a fan of Peterka and Quinn, slightly less so Krebs but I still think he's a useful player. However, those types of kids on other competing teams are playing truly sheltered, third-ish line minutes. They both received sheltered minutes this year - but going forward it's going to be required that they take tougher assignments and aren't pinned to the bench in important minutes late in the game - and that's going to be tough for them. Our roster isn't constructed in such a way where we have multiple lines that can shoulder the bulk of the workload and we can put our prospects in adventageous, sheltered minutes. We NEED our young guys to produce to take the next step - and that concerns me a little.

Kevyn Adams talked before about not wanting our prospects to tread water in the NHL and he wants them to be put in a position to do well when they're here. I think at times almost all of our young guys last year were just treading water - we didn't have anybody there to displace them from the lineup.

Anyways, just food for thought when it comes to potentially signing/trading for guys. It very well be that we just have too many young players, and we're either going to have to wait it out until they reach their physical prime (which might be longer than you think!) or that a hockey trade to bring in a couple vets and/or a goalie might be a more prudent move than some on here believe. It seems like there's a narrative around here constantly that a guy is "too old" and "doesn't fit our timeline". Well, do you want to win, or do you want to develop players at the NHL level? I do think it's *somewhat* mutually exclusive in the sense that trying to develop the amount of players that we are at the same time typically isn't condusive to winning.

I think Adams is patient and will continue to let the under 25yo core develop. He isn't going to rush things and move young NHLers for vets at this point in time.

 

[Jim Bob]

Hurricanes Should Re-Sign Raanta This Offseason, Not Andersen - The Hockey Writers Hurricanes Goaltending Latest News, Analysis & More

Antti Raanta provides cheaper and more consistent goaltending for the Carolina Hurricanes over Frederik Andersen.

thehockeywriters.com

This is an interesting piece that would affect the UFA goalie market.

 

[Fjordy]

Hurricanes Should Re-Sign Raanta This Offseason, Not Andersen - The Hockey Writers Hurricanes Goaltending Latest News, Analysis & More

Antti Raanta provides cheaper and more consistent goaltending for the Carolina Hurricanes over Frederik Andersen.

thehockeywriters.com

This is an interesting piece that would affect the UFA goalie market.

Well, Raantha has a history of injuries and he is unlikely to be able to take a big load. Unless they try to go with Raanta and Kochetkov by dividing the games between them, which is also a risk.

 

[RefsIdeas]

I think that Tanev might be opening to waive for a few reaasons:

1) Way closer to home ala Skinner
2) He did play his one year of college hockey in Rochester, so he knows the area
3) There are far worse teams to play on and roles to be in during a contract season


I think Adams is patient and will continue to let the under 25yo core develop. He isn't going to rush things and move young NHLers for vets at this point in time.

I agree that’s what Adams is going to do. Not sure it’s the correct decision though. To put it in some context about how young we currently are: you have to go back to the 87-88 Quebec Nordiques to find a team with a younger average age than the Sabres have right now - and we might actually go lower depending on how the offseason goes!

 

[Jim Bob]

I agree that’s what Adams is going to do. Not sure it’s the correct decision though. To put it in some context about how young we currently are: you have to go back to the 87-88 Quebec Nordiques to find a team with a younger average age than the Sabres have right now - and we might actually go lower depending on how the offseason goes!

Adams has a plan and he is sticking to it.

They are too young to compete for a Cup in 23-24. But, they are not going to be too young to make the playoffs.

 

[Jacob582]

One thing I was thinking about last night is how Vegas' and Florida's roster is constructed right now in terms of age.

In terms of players that are in the lineup regularly for Vegas, the youngest guy is Brett Howden and Nic Hague at 24. The Panthers have Anton Lundell at age 21, but beyond that you'll have to go to Mahura and Luostarinen who are both 24.

The Panthers and Golden Knights combined have 3 guys aged 24 or younger seeing significant minutes on their roster right now. Last year Avs had 4. The Buffalo Sabres this year had 14! The crazy part is - we're likely to get even younger next year if Savoie/Kulich make the team.

Well, do you want to win, or do you want to develop players at the NHL level? I do think it's *somewhat* mutually exclusive in the sense that trying to develop the amount of players that we are at the same time typically isn't condusive to winning.

I think they decided to develop players at the NHL level.

It's likely that we will be developing players at the AHL level for other NHL teams.

Rousek, Murray or Weissbach could end up being NHL players (as soon as next season). I don't think we will have room for all our 1st rounders, much less these late rounders who are trending up.

 

[RefsIdeas]

I think they decided to develop players at the NHL level.

It's likely that we will be developing players at the AHL level for other NHL teams.

Rousek, Murray or Weissbach could end up being NHL players (as soon as next season). I don't think we will have room for all our 1st rounders, much less these late rounders who are trending up.

Yep, exactly! I think there’s even an argument to be made that the past decade or so we developed players at the NHL level, just for them to go elsewhere and hit their primes. Fans mostly blame Ralph Krueger - and while he was a nightmare of a coach, I think most of us have the wrong idea of when NHL players are actually in their prime. Especially when it comes to playoff success.

 

[TageGod]

I think they decided to develop players at the NHL level.

It's likely that we will be developing players at the AHL level for other NHL teams.

Rousek, Murray or Weissbach could end up being NHL players (as soon as next season). I don't think we will have room for all our 1st rounders, much less these late rounders who are trending up.

Trying to do the lineup two years down the road can't figure out where people slot. I can see a path to any number of Krebs Mitts VO or greenway off the team in next 3 years. Limited space for players outside of 4th line. VO gone will give Savoie and Kulich a potential spot and rousek on 4th line but that's it unless something gives.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

One thing I was thinking about last night is how Vegas' and Florida's roster is constructed right now in terms of age.

In terms of players that are in the lineup regularly for Vegas, the youngest guy is Brett Howden and Nic Hague at 24. The Panthers have Anton Lundell at age 21, but beyond that you'll have to go to Mahura and Luostarinen who are both 24.

The Panthers and Golden Knights combined have 3 guys aged 24 or younger seeing significant minutes on their roster right now. Last year Avs had 4. The Buffalo Sabres this year had 14! The crazy part is - we're likely to get even younger next year if Savoie/Kulich make the team.

I'm not saying that the secret formula to have success in the NHL is to have an older team - that's silly. But I do think there's a line between developing players at the NHL level and trying to win. I forgot who on here said it, but they made a good point when they said something along the lines of "are we trying to win next year, or are we trying to develop Savoie?". I think that statement can be expanded further by saying "are we trying to develop Quinn, Peterka, Savoie and Krebs, or are we trying to win?".

You're only using 2 teams as an example here, but there are other examples of teams who are very competitive yet still very young.

Take a look at the Devils forward core, or take a look at the Rangers defensive core the past 2 seasons. The Devils opening night roster wasn't much older than the Sabres, and they were one of the better teams in the league most of the season, and should only get better when those players hit their primes.

I do think Buffalo could use a vet on the blueline, but the idea that they can't win because they're young or that playing younger players means they aren't trying to win is shortsighted. You can do both, especially in recent years where we are seeing more and more young players becoming key contributors earlier in their careers.

Some on this board would seem content to let every prospect stew in the AHL until they are 24, or trade them all for win now pieces, yet some of the best players on the team are still barely old enough to drink. At some point those players need to learn and adapt to the NHL game, they aren't going to do that anywhere except the NHL. Sure they can be well prepared for when that happens, but rookies are going to still make rookie mistakes whether they are 19 or 26.

 

[RefsIdeas]

You're only using 2 teams as an example here, but there are other examples of teams who are very competitive yet still very young.

Take a look at the Devils forward core, or take a look at the Rangers defensive core the past 2 seasons. The Devils opening night roster wasn't much older than the Sabres, and they were one of the better teams in the league most of the season, and should only get better when those players hit their primes.

I do think Buffalo could use a vet on the blueline, but the idea that they can't win because they're young or that playing younger players means they aren't trying to win is shortsighted. You can do both, especially in recent years where we are seeing more and more young players becoming key contributors earlier in their careers.

Some on this board would seem content to let every prospect stew in the AHL until they are 24, or trade them all for win now pieces, yet some of the best players on the team are still barely old enough to drink. At some point those players need to learn and adapt to the NHL game, they aren't going to do that anywhere except the NHL. Sure they can be well prepared for when that happens, but rookies are going to still make rookie mistakes whether they are 19 or 26.

I’m taking a look at those teams and our number of young players still dwarf theirs. Plus, I’m not saying that young = unable to make the playoffs. Half the teams make the playoffs in the NHL, it really shouldn’t be a special achievement. You can be ever so slightly above average and make them. I’ve been glued to playoff hockey this postseason and the more I think about the Sabres, the more concerns I have about postseason success in the future. It’s going to be a while, imo. I think there’s a compromise between sacrificing some youth for a more of a veteran presence that wouldn’t comprise our ability to win both now and in the future.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

I’m taking a look at those teams and our number of young players still dwarf theirs. Plus, I’m not saying that young = unable to make the playoffs. Half the teams make the playoffs in the NHL, it really shouldn’t be a special achievement. You can be ever so slightly above average and make them. I’ve been glued to playoff hockey this postseason and the more I think about the Sabres, the more concerns I have about postseason success in the future. It’s going to be a while, imo. I think there’s a compromise between sacrificing some youth for a more of a veteran presence that wouldn’t comprise our ability to win both now and in the future.

I think the idea is that as those players mature they become more successful as they progress. When guys like Savoie, Quinn, and Peterka hit their primes, guys like Tuch, Skinner, and Thompson are the vets leading the charge.

Adding key vets is good, I'm not saying that doing so is taking away from the team. But Buffalo is also in a position where they have a ton of youth that needs to be developed. Sure they can get someone closer to their primes, but the core age of the teams best players is not in the same range as a team like Florida or Vegas.

Florida is an interesting team to look at here actually. Almost all of their key contributors and best players are in the 25 - 27 year old range. They have a handful of vets who are a bit older than that, and a couple who are a bit younger. Buffalo's equivalent players are closer to a 21 - 24 year old range, with a few older and a few younger. So to me that means that right now, they are in the early stages of learning to win. Making the playoffs next year and progressing from their would mean in 3 years they could potentially be in a position similar to Florida where all of their key contributors are now in that 25 - 27 year old range, have gotten some playoff experience and have learned how to win in the playoffs. That age range seems to be the sweet spot for a lot of teams starting to hit their stride.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I don't know man.. I think a glaring weakness of UPL is getting across the crease .. you can add the caveat "for his size" but you're either good at it or not at the end of the day and I don't think he is good at it. He is young and has potential still but im not sure he is the guy at this point. Comrie certainly isn't.

6K is a system goalie. He has athleticism, as all goalies do, but his game is based on very little movement and getting the puck into his chest. The more he has to scramble, the worse he’ll look. Because of the lack of team defense, he had to remain more fluid in order to scramble, which opens up more holes that normally wouldn’t be there.

This team can play team defence, as they showed a few times that they could do it. They just have to commit to that, as it’s not as much fun as scoring goals.

I guarantee that with better team defence that all of our goalies will have better stats.