Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[RefsIdeas]

I think the idea is that as those players mature they become more successful as they progress. When guys like Savoie, Quinn, and Peterka hit their primes, guys like Tuch, Skinner, and Thompson are the vets leading the charge.

Adding key vets is good, I'm not saying that doing so is taking away from the team. But Buffalo is also in a position where they have a ton of youth that needs to be developed. Sure they can get someone closer to their primes, but the core age of the teams best players is not in the same range as a team like Florida or Vegas.

Florida is an interesting team to look at here actually. Almost all of their key contributors and best players are in the 25 - 27 year old range. They have a handful of vets who are a bit older than that, and a couple who are a bit younger. Buffalo's equivalent players are closer to a 21 - 24 year old range, with a few older and a few younger. So to me that means that right now, they are in the early stages of learning to win. Making the playoffs next year and progressing from their would mean in 3 years they could potentially be in a position similar to Florida where all of their key contributors are now in that 25 - 27 year old range, have gotten some playoff experience and have learned how to win in the playoffs. That age range seems to be the sweet spot for a lot of teams starting to hit their stride.

Yeah, I agree with pretty much all of this. My main takeaways are

- Our expectations for our window to compete should be tempered a bit if we don't make moves to acquire more vets

- We still are set up well, but our window to compete might be more 2026 2027ish than 2025.

- Not every single prospect/draft pick is going to hit our percieved ceiling for them. Some of Quinn, Peterka, Rosen, Kulich, Savoie, Ostlund, Krebs, Power etc will wind up not quite what we expected them to be. It would be wholly unheard of for all of them to pan out. A couple might even exceed our percieved ceilings for them. If GMKA is forward-thinking and bold enough, a wise bet may be to move the one or two he won't think will reach their potential for a more established veteran.

- We all know we need to be patient - but I think we might need to be even more patient than we think. People were harping on Mittelstadt at the beginning of the year like crazy, saying he should've had a shorter leash - when he didn't even turn 24 until November. Even during Eichel/Reinhart's last years here, they were 24 and 25 respectively. Personally, I felt like they both had a very long leash here but seeing them do well now makes me realize that they probably should've been insulated more than they were during their time here. We were just too young (even then) and didn't build a veteran presence to put them in a place to do well.

- Looking at NHL age models/curves, the data is interesting. Some will have you believe the "prime" of an NHL player is 24, where others say it's more 26-29ish. It's an inexact science because of survivorship bias in the models, and it's hard to get an accurate read on it. Personally, I'm of the belief that NHL players are in their "prime" from 24-29. There's always going to be exceptions and outliers - but for the majority of guys we don't really know what they are until they hit their mid 20's. Owen Power might not fully hit his stride until 2027 - and that would be normal!

 

[RefsIdeas]

6K is a system goalie. He has athleticism, as all goalies do, but his game is based on very little movement and getting the puck into his chest. The more he has to scramble, the worse he’ll look. Because of the lack of team defense, he had to remain more fluid in order to scramble, which opens up more holes that normally wouldn’t be there.

This team can play team defence, as they showed a few times that they could do it. They just have to commit to that, as it’s not as much fun as scoring goals.

I guarantee that with better team defence that all of our goalies will have better stats.

I just don't see this current iteration of the team doing that. In fact, I think it would actually neuter them quite a bit. Not saying it would be Krueger-esque, but if we take away our focus on offense to try and instead commit to defense, I think we take a couple steps back this year. It's a square peg in a round hole again - our players are built to play an up-tempo, high-event type of game. We need a goalie that can mesh with that (like Levi, and Miller during our heyday). I think there's room for some of our forwards to play better defense on a consistent basis without neutering them - and certainly a few defenseman can play more consistently. But if I'm Granato I don't think I'm changing too much in terms of team focus on defense just yet - the pieces just aren't there.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I just don't see this current iteration of the team doing that. In fact, I think it would actually neuter them quite a bit. Not saying it would be Krueger-esque, but if we take away our focus on offense to try and instead commit to defense, I think we take a couple steps back this year. It's a square peg in a round hole again - our players are built to play an up-tempo, high-event type of game. We need a goalie that can mesh with that (like Levi, and Miller during our heyday). I think there's room for some of our forwards to play better defense on a consistent basis without neutering them - and certainly a few defenseman can play more consistently. But if I'm Granato I don't think I'm changing too much in terms of team focus on defense just yet - the pieces just aren't there.

I don’t expect a Kruegering from Donny. It’s not a one or the other situation. They can do both. It just means you win games 4-3 instead of 6-5.

 

[RefsIdeas]

I don’t expect a Kruegering from Donny. It’s not a one or the other situation. They can do both. It just means you win games 4-3 instead of 6-5.

I get it what you're saying, but here's how I look at it.

Jeff Skinner isn't suddenly going to become solid on defense. He hasn't his entire career. He's a very good offensive player and we have to live with non-commitment to defense. Tage has the ability, but if he is now trying to be committed to defense - the numbers that we were all enamored with this year are going to tail off quite a bit. Personally, I have a hard time seeing Tage make that turnaround, but I could be wrong.

Dylan Cozens was very disappointing defensively this year, and I think he both has the ability and potential commitment to play better on that end, I can expect that. Peterka and Quinn are still young and will get outmuscled defensively. I think Quinn has good defensive IQ, but the skill set might just not be there yet. VO being swapped out for a more defensive minded forward would be beneficial.

Power is going to take years to be a shutdown type of defenseman. That's just how it works with guys with his skillset. I'm listing these players as they were the culptrits of a lot of defensive mishaps this year.

This isn't a situation where Granato goes in and says "ok boys we're playing defense now" - it requires buy-in from a good portion of our players and for some of them, to play a style of hockey that they've never really played before. Most of them have been good enough offensively, their junior coaches didn't really care what they did in the defensive zone.

In terms of "winning games 4-3 instead of 6-5" - I think that's wishful thinking. If Granato makes his main emphasis this season playing stronger team defense, I think we end up losing games 4-2 instead of 6-5. Right now, our guys are best suited for a high-tempo, high-event style of game. To do that while still being good defensively is very tough to do, especially considering how young we are. Maybe in 3 years we can talk about buckling down defensively, but right now our team isn't constructed to do so. It would be like the Buffalo Bills running the ball 30 times a game - doing that just isn't how the roster is constructed - and that's ok. Our best bet is to make a couple moves on defense, add a goalie and expect incremental improvement from our forwards.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Did some Capfriendly computations today, here's my spaghetti at the wall:

UFA/RFA re-signings (NHL only) (I'm crappy at the deal estimations, so....)
- Girgensons 1 x $2.5M
- Jost 2 x $2.2M
- Assuming that Okposo hangs them up and joins the organization in a different way.

Pre-draft trades:
Trade 1: Rights to Ryan Johnson, Jokiharju, and Rosen to Anaheim for Max Comtois, Max Jones, and Drew Helleson

I'd bet not a lot of people will like this deal. I like it for two reasons, and will break it down two ways: value, and for the players gained.

Value:
- Rights to Johnson for the rights to Comtois. Johnson goes back home and is in the right age for the rebuilding Ducks. Comtois is a buy lower power forward, a good time to buy.
- Rosen for Helleson. Helleson is the RHD the Sabres could really use for Power. He skates well, right handed, and gets pucks out of his own zone. Similar player to Samuelsson.
- Jokiharju for Jones, which is value lopsided in favor of the Ducks, but you've got to entice them to make the deal a little bit. Jones is another buy lower power forward who has just started to trend up. He's got Marcus Foligno upside.

Players gained:
- Comtois is a potential top 6 power forward if he rebounds. He wins board battles and is a net front presence, with the Sabres lack.
- Helleson is the future partner for Power. He can be stashed in Rochester for a year to continue to develop.
- Jones is exactly the type of player who develops in a few years and goes for a 1st. Goodrow, Coleman type of winger the Lightning bring in every year.

Note: re-sign Comtois to 2 x $2.4M

Trade 2: pick 45 to Montreal for Luke Tuch. Family ties, sure. But Tuch is another power winger that the Sabres will eventually need to round out their roster, which is currently full of skill players.

Trade 3: Olofsson (50% retained) to Pittsburgh for Jeff Petry. The Pens are constantly shuffling the deck chairs around Crosby, Letang, and Malkin. They've got 4 players able to play RD, so they may need to shuffle a D off. Petry is the type of D that could be a really good short term partner for Power. His numbers declined in Pittsburgh but his Montreal numbers support the idea that he could be a good support player for Power. Big deal, but only for two years. It buys some time for Helleson (or whoever else Adams drafts).

Draft:
With the previous re-singings and trades, Adams can just go into the draft and take BPA. No one Adams drafts is going to come in and make any sort of impact on the big club next season anyway. The Sabres' prospect pool is in amazing shape because Adams and team went BPA, so why change? Here's just a small swing at a draft, but it could be any player who is at the top of the Sabres' draft board.

13: Nate Danielson
39: Cam Allen
86: Brady Cleveland

Post draft:
Trade: UPL, 2024 1st, and Rousek to Winnipeg for Connor Hellebuyck. I admit that this is a lot for a goalie who might only be with the team for a year. But the Sabres need to hurdle a big obstacle and make the playoffs. There's so much development needed with the current team that can only happen playing in April and May. Hellebuyck gets the Sabres to that point. He can also shelter Levi from having to be superman too early. If Levi needs time, Adams has the option to put him in Rochester and let the old Jets duo man the big club for a while.

UFA:
Ryan Graves, LHD 3 x $4.5M. Graves plays against some tough competition and has done fairly well. The Sabres were 4 deep at defense last year, in essence, and need to add some horsepower onto the 3rd pairing. Graves and Lyubushkin could be a good pair that can pull more than 10 minutes a night and play well without being sheltered. There's also some bite to this pair.

Opening Night lineup (just going off last season's lines)
Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Quinn - Cozens - Peterka
Mittelstadt - Krebs - Greenway
Comtois - Savoie - Girgensons
x Jones, Jost

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Petry
Graves - Lyubushkin
x Stillman or Bryson

Hellebuyck, Comrie

I'm sure the lines will be different, but this is just based off last season for mostly accounting purposes. I do think Savoie makes the Sabres, and may eventually be the 3C.

For this lineup, the Sabres are better in goal, bigger and stronger, and add Power's partner and some net front muscle. And the back end prospect pool is still really strong. With around $1M left in cap space.

Thoughts? Thanks in advance

 

[HOOats]

Anyways, just food for thought when it comes to potentially signing/trading for guys. It very well be that we just have too many young players, and we're either going to have to wait it out until they reach their physical prime (which might be longer than you think!) or that a hockey trade to bring in a couple vets and/or a goalie might be a more prudent move than some on here believe.

Well said. Swapping out even one of our acclaimed "Group of 6" young F's for a very good, prime veteran could swing the balance from a young team on the verge of contending to a young contender. At the same time, we also have enough young depth to spend some of it on quality vets and still have more than enough juice for the future.

This is why I find it worthwhile (and fun) to talk about which young guys could be moved. It's not rooting for guys to get kicked to the curb. It's just preparation, ideation - it's all hypothetical... until the day it isn't. Sure, Adams has shown a patient, development-based approach until now, but we can't extrapolate that infinitely. One day the trade(s) will come and it *might* be sooner than some assume. The trades might even give the remaining youth more sunlight and support to max their individual growth.

To be sure, Adams and co. are having the exact conversations that some treat as blasphemous around here. "Does JJ have a top 6 ceiling on a Stanley Cup winner?" "Ventura, make lists of sub-28 D under team control that you'd bite the bullet and move Savoie/Quinn/JJ/Kulich/Rosen/Ostlund for." "Which of the "Group of 6" forwards are more likely to bust relative to the league-wide perception that they'll bust." Just as they're always self-scouting, they're always wargaming values. We all have our favorites that we treat as our own special boys, but if you believe all of our prospects are surefire top 6 studs, then so do half of GMs and we'll get great value (and we won't have room for them all anyways).

Edit: you beat me to a lot of this in your more recent reply

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Did some Capfriendly computations today, here's my spaghetti at the wall:

UFA/RFA re-signings (NHL only) (I'm crappy at the deal estimations, so....)
- Girgensons 1 x $2.5M
- Jost 2 x $2.2M
- Assuming that Okposo hangs them up and joins the organization in a different way.

Pre-draft trades:
Trade 1: Rights to Ryan Johnson, Jokiharju, and Rosen to Anaheim for Max Comtois, Max Jones, and Drew Helleson

I'd bet not a lot of people will like this deal. I like it for two reasons, and will break it down two ways: value, and for the players gained.

Value:
- Rights to Johnson for the rights to Comtois. Johnson goes back home and is in the right age for the rebuilding Ducks. Comtois is a buy lower power forward, a good time to buy.
- Rosen for Helleson. Helleson is the RHD the Sabres could really use for Power. He skates well, right handed, and gets pucks out of his own zone. Similar player to Samuelsson.
- Jokiharju for Jones, which is value lopsided in favor of the Ducks, but you've got to entice them to make the deal a little bit. Jones is another buy lower power forward who has just started to trend up. He's got Marcus Foligno upside.

Players gained:
- Comtois is a potential top 6 power forward if he rebounds. He wins board battles and is a net front presence, with the Sabres lack.
- Helleson is the future partner for Power. He can be stashed in Rochester for a year to continue to develop.
- Jones is exactly the type of player who develops in a few years and goes for a 1st. Goodrow, Coleman type of winger the Lightning bring in every year.

Note: re-sign Comtois to 2 x $2.4M

Trade 2: pick 45 to Montreal for Luke Tuch. Family ties, sure. But Tuch is another power winger that the Sabres will eventually need to round out their roster, which is currently full of skill players.

Trade 3: Olofsson (50% retained) to Pittsburgh for Jeff Petry. The Pens are constantly shuffling the deck chairs around Crosby, Letang, and Malkin. They've got 4 players able to play RD, so they may need to shuffle a D off. Petry is the type of D that could be a really good short term partner for Power. His numbers declined in Pittsburgh but his Montreal numbers support the idea that he could be a good support player for Power. Big deal, but only for two years. It buys some time for Helleson (or whoever else Adams drafts).

Draft:
With the previous re-singings and trades, Adams can just go into the draft and take BPA. No one Adams drafts is going to come in and make any sort of impact on the big club next season anyway. The Sabres' prospect pool is in amazing shape because Adams and team went BPA, so why change? Here's just a small swing at a draft, but it could be any player who is at the top of the Sabres' draft board.

13: Nate Danielson
39: Cam Allen
86: Brady Cleveland

Post draft:
Trade: UPL, 2024 1st, and Rousek to Winnipeg for Connor Hellebuyck. I admit that this is a lot for a goalie who might only be with the team for a year. But the Sabres need to hurdle a big obstacle and make the playoffs. There's so much development needed with the current team that can only happen playing in April and May. Hellebuyck gets the Sabres to that point. He can also shelter Levi from having to be superman too early. If Levi needs time, Adams has the option to put him in Rochester and let the old Jets duo man the big club for a while.

UFA:
Ryan Graves, LHD 3 x $4.5M. Graves plays against some tough competition and has done fairly well. The Sabres were 4 deep at defense last year, in essence, and need to add some horsepower onto the 3rd pairing. Graves and Lyubushkin could be a good pair that can pull more than 10 minutes a night and play well without being sheltered. There's also some bite to this pair.

Opening Night lineup (just going off last season's lines)
Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Quinn - Cozens - Peterka
Mittelstadt - Krebs - Greenway
Comtois - Savoie - Girgensons
x Jones, Jost

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Petry
Graves - Lyubushkin
x Stillman or Bryson

Hellebuyck, Comrie

I'm sure the lines will be different, but this is just based off last season for mostly accounting purposes. I do think Savoie makes the Sabres, and may eventually be the 3C.

For this lineup, the Sabres are better in goal, bigger and stronger, and add Power's partner and some net front muscle. And the back end prospect pool is still really strong. With around $1M left in cap space.

Thoughts? Thanks in advance

I'm having a hard time understanding your Anaheim trade. I like and understand going after Helleson but I don't see the need for Comtios and Jones if its going cost us Joki and especially Rosen (Who I think you'll need to include in your Hellebuych deal instead of Rousek). Also Anaheim is probably well aware they can get Johnson for free.

 

[TehDoak]

Adams has a plan and he is sticking to it.

This is true. He is, essentially "Use the NHL team as a developmental team", and to his credit, he has done that. And, for better or worse, he's achieved his goal. He has a developmental coach, and players have developed under his watch.

The problem is...when does the next step happen? What is his plan to turn this from a young promising team with upside to a winning team. Where the priority is wins and losses, not development and amassing and developing young talent? I'm assuming we've at least moved into the 'add outside pieces' mode without blowing through picks/prospects. Is that a big UFA? Is that a big trade? That we don't know.

They are too young to compete for a Cup in 23-24. But, they are not going to be too young to make the playoffs.

I mean, they have the assets to smartly add veteran pieces. And they can add at the deadline.

If they can successfully add a starting goalie, top 4 RHD, and a defensive center in the offseason and then tweak your forward via an add around the trade deadline (if you need to), then I think you'll be in a good spot flight for a top 3 seed in the division. It'll be hard to pull a favorable playoff matchup in our division, however.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Trade 2: pick 45 to Montreal for Luke Tuch. Family ties, sure. But Tuch is another power winger that the Sabres will eventually need to round out their roster, which is currently full of skill players.

If I'm not mistaken, Luke has committed for his senior year, and can become a UFA August 15th of next year. I'm also not even sure he's worth a 2nd round pick at this point. He strikes me as more of a bottom 6 type of winger, who has not really produced as much as you would expect given his size and draft position. I get the other things he brings (solid defensively, physical) but his inconsistent and underwhelming NCAA production leaves a lot to be desired still.

Just sign him as a UFA, or pester Habs fans that he's not signing with them so he can come home like they did with Levi the past year

 

[Der Jaeger]

I'm having a hard time understanding your Anaheim trade. I like and understand going after Helleson but I don't see the need for Comtios and Jones if its going cost us Joki and especially Rosen (Who I think you'll need to include in your Hellebuych deal instead of Rousek). Also Anaheim is probably well aware they can get Johnson for free.

Anaheim fans think the Ducks won't even tender Comtois, so it's just a way to get ahead in the process.

If the Jets ask for Rosen instead of Rousek, I wouldn't make the deal, and look elsewhere.

The Sabres will need players like Comtois and Jones. Look at the rosters of the final four teams. Who on the Sabres are going into the corner to win puck battles consistently? Putting a physical forecheck on the defenders?

If I'm not mistaken, Luke has committed for his senior year, and can become a UFA August 15th of next year. I'm also not even sure he's worth a 2nd round pick at this point. He strikes me as more of a bottom 6 type of winger, who has not really produced as much as you would expect given his size and draft position. I get the other things he brings (solid defensively, physical) but his inconsistent and underwhelming NCAA production leaves a lot to be desired still.

Just sign him as a UFA, or pester Habs fans that he's not signing with them so he can come home like they did with Levi the past year

That would be funny!

Power forwards tend to develop later so I'm not super worried about his NCAA production.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Power forwards tend to develop later so I'm not super worried about his NCAA production.

Many do still produce in juniors and the NCAA though. Greenway for example.

If he does take longer to develop, it could be years before he was able to contribute where as I would think we'd want that contribution sooner rather than later. I know that was the intent of a Comtois or Jones, but those 2 seem like projects still at this point.

By that token, someone like Goodrow who some Ranger fans appear to want to give away for the cap relief might be an option in the more near term. A line of Goodrow-Krebs-Greenway/Gus would be a pain in the ass to play against.

 

[Jim Bob]

This is true. He is, essentially "Use the NHL team as a developmental team", and to his credit, he has done that. And, for better or worse, he's achieved his goal. He has a developmental coach, and players have developed under his watch.

The problem is...when does the next step happen? What is his plan to turn this from a young promising team with upside to a winning team. Where the priority is wins and losses, not development and amassing and developing young talent? I'm assuming we've at least moved into the 'add outside pieces' mode without blowing through picks/prospects. Is that a big UFA? Is that a big trade? That we don't know.




I mean, they have the assets to smartly add veteran pieces. And they can add at the deadline.

If they can successfully add a starting goalie, top 4 RHD, and a defensive center in the offseason and then tweak your forward via an add around the trade deadline (if you need to), then I think you'll be in a good spot flight for a top 3 seed in the division. It'll be hard to pull a favorable playoff matchup in our division, however.

I expect Jost to be back. If that is the case, I do not see the spot for a veteran center to be added from outside the organization.

I do not expect a big UFA or a big trade this off season. And big time TDL additions are usually a disappointment when all is said and done. The best TDL additions tend to be the low cost depth moves.

I am all for adding a #1 goalie and a top 4 D to pair with Dahlin or Power. But, I am not expecting big moves this summer. I think he banks on Granato getting the youngest roster in the NHL to make another sizable step forward next season with the most additions being promoting from within.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I get it what you're saying, but here's how I look at it.

Jeff Skinner isn't suddenly going to become solid on defense. He hasn't his entire career. He's a very good offensive player and we have to live with non-commitment to defense. Tage has the ability, but if he is now trying to be committed to defense - the numbers that we were all enamored with this year are going to tail off quite a bit. Personally, I have a hard time seeing Tage make that turnaround, but I could be wrong.

Dylan Cozens was very disappointing defensively this year, and I think he both has the ability and potential commitment to play better on that end, I can expect that. Peterka and Quinn are still young and will get outmuscled defensively. I think Quinn has good defensive IQ, but the skill set might just not be there yet. VO being swapped out for a more defensive minded forward would be beneficial.

Power is going to take years to be a shutdown type of defenseman. That's just how it works with guys with his skillset. I'm listing these players as they were the culptrits of a lot of defensive mishaps this year.

This isn't a situation where Granato goes in and says "ok boys we're playing defense now" - it requires buy-in from a good portion of our players and for some of them, to play a style of hockey that they've never really played before. Most of them have been good enough offensively, their junior coaches didn't really care what they did in the defensive zone.

In terms of "winning games 4-3 instead of 6-5" - I think that's wishful thinking. If Granato makes his main emphasis this season playing stronger team defense, I think we end up losing games 4-2 instead of 6-5. Right now, our guys are best suited for a high-tempo, high-event style of game. To do that while still being good defensively is very tough to do, especially considering how young we are. Maybe in 3 years we can talk about buckling down defensively, but right now our team isn't constructed to do so. It would be like the Buffalo Bills running the ball 30 times a game - doing that just isn't how the roster is constructed - and that's ok. Our best bet is to make a couple moves on defense, add a goalie and expect incremental improvement from our forwards.

The team could do both. It just means they can’t blow the D zone when it looks like a teammate might get the puck, and instead take another half second and wait until they do get the puck before blowing the zone.

Although this whole conversation is far from my point I was originally making wrt 6K.

 

[Dingo44]

 

[RefsIdeas]

To add on my previous point about how our roster isn't really primed for playoff success, I want to point out the following stats. The Sabres ranked dead last in the following:

- Shot quality per shot allowed at 5 on 5
- Odd man rushes allowed per game
- High danger scoring chances allowed per game
- Scoring chances off the rush allowed per game
- Shots taken with net-front presence
- Faceoff percentage
- Blocked shots
- Percentage of shots blocked
- Hits per game
- Hit differential

Notable bottom 5 stats:

- 4th worst PK percentage
- 3rd fewest goals scored via rebounds
- 5th worst save percentage
- 5th worst goals against per 60
- 4th most shots on goal against
- 2nd fewest forecheck retrievals per 60

* Stats via Evolving-Hockey, MoneyPuck, Stathletes and AllThreeZones

I'll also throw in that we had the best penalty differential, and the highest share of PP time in the league (not a sticky stat - could say we were somewhat lucky there).

What's my point with this? I don't think that we're a bad team, but the stats that I pointed out matter much more in the playoffs. I understand that hits and even faceoffs are tracked poorly, and that blocked shots doesn't have a direct correlation with winning (even though it shouldn't have to). Watching these games and seeing how well each team defends the blue line, crashes the net on both offense and defense, sells out to block shots, gets those tip-in and rebound goals is really eye-opening, and is part of what prompted me to write these past few posts. It's such a stark contrast to how we see the Sabres play. Our over-reliance on creating off the rush and our inability to defend our blue line, in combination with all of the other things makes me have big concerns to how this groups play will translate in the playoffs. I think it's also a byproduct of having such a young team. While I hope that the Sabres (more importantly, Granato) will have an improved focus on this going forward, I just don't see it happening in the near future.

As a side-note, being last in shots taken with net-front presence probably bothers me more than anything else. Not only is it important at getting some of those "ugly" goals - but I also think about some of our young players and how they've done well being able to deceive their shot when they have a teammate in front of them (Quinn, Peterka, Savoie). Savoie in particular seems to excel at scoring when he has a guy in front of him even acting as a semi-screen, as he can get his shot off quick and the goalie won't even see it come off his stick. Just something to look for going forward.

 

[TageGod]

To add on my previous point about how our roster isn't really primed for playoff success, I want to point out the following stats. The Sabres ranked dead last in the following:

- Shot quality per shot allowed at 5 on 5
- Odd man rushes allowed per game
- High danger scoring chances allowed per game
- Scoring chances off the rush allowed per game
- Shots taken with net-front presence
- Faceoff percentage
- Blocked shots
- Percentage of shots blocked
- Hits per game
- Hit differential

Notable bottom 5 stats:

- 4th worst PK percentage
- 3rd fewest goals scored via rebounds
- 5th worst save percentage
- 5th worst goals against per 60
- 4th most shots on goal against
- 2nd fewest forecheck retrievals per 60

* Stats via Evolving-Hockey, MoneyPuck, Stathletes and AllThreeZones

I'll also throw in that we had the best penalty differential, and the highest share of PP time in the league (not a sticky stat - could say we were somewhat lucky there).

What's my point with this? I don't think that we're a bad team, but the stats that I pointed out matter much more in the playoffs. I understand that hits and even faceoffs are tracked poorly, and that blocked shots doesn't have a direct correlation with winning (even though it shouldn't have to). Watching these games and seeing how well each team defends the blue line, crashes the net on both offense and defense, sells out to block shots, gets those tip-in and rebound goals is really eye-opening, and is part of what prompted me to write these past few posts. It's such a stark contrast to how we see the Sabres play. Our over-reliance on creating off the rush and our inability to defend our blue line, in combination with all of the other things makes me have big concerns to how this groups play will translate in the playoffs. I think it's also a byproduct of having such a young team. While I hope that the Sabres (more importantly, Granato) will have an improved focus on this going forward, I just don't see it happening in the near future.

As a side-note, being last in shots taken with net-front presence probably bothers me more than anything else. Not only is it important at getting some of those "ugly" goals - but I also think about some of our young players and how they've done well being able to deceive their shot when they have a teammate in front of them (Quinn, Peterka, Savoie). Savoie in particular seems to excel at scoring when he has a guy in front of him even acting as a semi-screen, as he can get his shot off quick and the goalie won't even see it come off his stick. Just something to look for going forward.

All you are saying is that the Sabres played off the rush with high event hockey. Clean up turnovers and a bit more defensive awareness from young players and that all goes up next year.

 

[joshjull]

Yeah, I agree with pretty much all of this. My main takeaways are

- Our expectations for our window to compete should be tempered a bit if we don't make moves to acquire more vets

- We still are set up well, but our window to compete might be more 2026 2027ish than 2025.

- Not every single prospect/draft pick is going to hit our percieved ceiling for them. Some of Quinn, Peterka, Rosen, Kulich, Savoie, Ostlund, Krebs, Power etc will wind up not quite what we expected them to be. It would be wholly unheard of for all of them to pan out. A couple might even exceed our percieved ceilings for them. If GMKA is forward-thinking and bold enough, a wise bet may be to move the one or two he won't think will reach their potential for a more established veteran.

- We all know we need to be patient - but I think we might need to be even more patient than we think. People were harping on Mittelstadt at the beginning of the year like crazy, saying he should've had a shorter leash - when he didn't even turn 24 until November. Even during Eichel/Reinhart's last years here, they were 24 and 25 respectively. Personally, I felt like they both had a very long leash here but seeing them do well now makes me realize that they probably should've been insulated more than they were during their time here. We were just too young (even then) and didn't build a veteran presence to put them in a place to do well.

- Looking at NHL age models/curves, the data is interesting. Some will have you believe the "prime" of an NHL player is 24, where others say it's more 26-29ish. It's an inexact science because of survivorship bias in the models, and it's hard to get an accurate read on it. Personally, I'm of the belief that NHL players are in their "prime" from 24-29. There's always going to be exceptions and outliers - but for the majority of guys we don't really know what they are until they hit their mid 20's. Owen Power might not fully hit his stride until 2027 - and that would be normal!

You’ve leaned so hard into this age thing that you undermined your original point. Which was a need to add some vet depth to support the youth.

If you truly believe the stuff about Sam,Jack, etc was age related and those prime age curves (I think you’re saying it’s around 25+yrs). In order to sped things up we’d need to actually flip a good chunk of our core group because of how young they are. Adding vet depth can’t make them age faster. In this scenario it would be best to either not add vets and let the core group develop or flip a good chunk of it.

I don’t think you were intending to make that argument btw. I think you just got a bit carried way because you feel strongly that we should add vets instead of counting on another wave of youth.

 

[RefsIdeas]

You’ve leaned so hard into this age thing that you undermined your original point. Which was a need to add some vet depth to support the youth.

If you truly believe the stuff about Sam,Jack, etc was age related and those prime age curves (I think you’re saying it’s around 25+yrs). In order to sped things up we’d need to actually flip a good chunk of our core group because of how young they are. Adding vet depth can’t make them age faster. In this scenario it would be best to either not add vets and let the core group develop or flip a good chunk of it.

I don’t think you were intending to make that argument btw. I think you just got a bit carried way because you feel strongly that we should add vets instead of counting on another wave of youth.

I don't think this is what I'm saying. It's not an all or nothing approach. It's totally fine to have youth, I don't want to flip a good chunk of players. I think flipping 2/3 young guys + draft picks for 2/3 vets may be a prudent approach in building a team that can compete both now and in the future. Also, I'm leaning hard into the age thing since it's absolutely mind blowing to me that we're probably going to ice the youngest team the NHL has seen in 35 years and we still have people saying that bringing in somebody that's 28 "doesn't fit our timeline".

All you are saying is that the Sabres played off the rush with high event hockey. Clean up turnovers and a bit more defensive awareness from young players and that all goes up next year.

I list 10 stats that we were dead last in, and another 6 that we were bottom 5 in, all of which are important to win in the playoffs and your takeaway is "clean up turnovers and bring defensive awareness" and then it's fine? I think it's going to take a lot more than that.

 

[TehDoak]

I expect Jost to be back. If that is the case, I do not see the spot for a veteran center to be added from outside the organization.

I do not expect a big UFA or a big trade this off season. And big time TDL additions are usually a disappointment when all is said and done. The best TDL additions tend to be the low cost depth moves.

I am all for adding a #1 goalie and a top 4 D to pair with Dahlin or Power. But, I am not expecting big moves this summer. I think he banks on Granato getting the youngest roster in the NHL to make another sizable step forward next season with the most additions being promoting from within.

I think your read on Adams is 100% correct and those are my expectations are well.

However, I think the problem becomes that his plan is, essentially, another near cap floor team, and burning the valuable ELC years of the team This will be the last time you'll have Power/Dahlin/Krebs/Quinn/Peterka for well under 12M total. There is a true opportunity here to supplement your young team and make big gains.

 

[Chainshot]

So if Keller's demands lead to him being dealt, and as RT mentioned Crouse is probably right behind... what's the offer for Crouse since that sort of player in their top 6 is something they could use/need. Is that a player who an offer touches the untouchables?

 

[TageGod]

I list 10 stats that we were dead last in, and another 6 that we were bottom 5 in, all of which are important to win in the playoffs and your takeaway is "clean up turnovers and bring defensive awareness" and then it's fine? I think it's going to take a lot more than that.

EDM did okay without defense. Half those stats improve with average goaltending. Some will improve by just not having Bryson play a game. A slightly better defensive awareness by young players is perfectly reasonable. Add a top 4 D even better. Remove VO, improvement. Healthy Greenway being as advertised defensively, improvement. None of these seem overly difficult except the goalie, which could be a slightly better UPL and Levi being average. Or ofc outside trade.

 

[RefsIdeas]

So if Keller's demands lead to him being dealt, and as RT mentioned Crouse is probably right behind... what's the offer for Crouse since that sort of player in their top 6 is something they could use/need. Is that a player who an offer touches the untouchables?

It's tough because when I look at it from an Arizona perspective, nothing that Buffalo has to offer is too exciting. Bill Armstrong even said on a podcast that he's probably not looking at acquiring too many more draft picks since they have a silly amount coming up. You'll have problems down the road even with the contract limit. Kulich/Savoie/Ostlund seems like an overpay for Crouse, as much as I'd like him on the Sabres. A young defenseman would be a better fit going back, something we don't have to offer.

 

[Fjordy]

So if Keller's demands lead to him being dealt, and as RT mentioned Crouse is probably right behind... what's the offer for Crouse since that sort of player in their top 6 is something they could use/need. Is that a player who an offer touches the untouchables?

I'm afraid that Crouse would not be Jeannot 2.0. He had a breakout season, but basically a good middle six player. I just don't know where to place everyone and I don't want to trade our best prospects.

 

[Jim Bob]

So if Keller's demands lead to him being dealt, and as RT mentioned Crouse is probably right behind... what's the offer for Crouse since that sort of player in their top 6 is something they could use/need. Is that a player who an offer touches the untouchables?

I would be surprised if Adams paid a big price for a winger to push Quinn or JJP out of the top 6.

 

[Irie]

So if Keller's demands lead to him being dealt, and as RT mentioned Crouse is probably right behind... what's the offer for Crouse since that sort of player in their top 6 is something they could use/need. Is that a player who an offer touches the untouchables?

Don't ask, because you probably don't want to know the asking cost from the Yotes.

I'd say 23 1st and another piece that really hurts.

Given the Sabres makeup, it is actually a move that could really work out, but convincing this board (or Adams) to pay the asking price will be extremely difficult.