Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Matt Ress]

To anyone still attempting to include Rosen as a throw in for a trade

View attachment 709755

Keep my beautiful boy‘s name out your trade proposals

He's looked good all around and that one timer was filthy

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

Everyone should come to peace with the idea of prospects we like being traded. It's almost unavoidable if these guys continue on the path they're on.

Kulich, Rosen, Rousek, Kozak, Cederqvist from just the amerks roster are all nhl caliber prospects. Savoie, Ostlund, Kisakov, Neuchev... who am I leaving out?

There are at most, what, 5 roster spots available at F. And that's not just next year. That's for years. And assuming we sign zero free agents.

 

[Ace]

Given cap reasons I’d wager that players will be moved before the cheap contracts will. We all love what Mittelstadt has done. What’s his next contract at? Is Mittelstadt at a much higher number than Savoie or Kulich worth keeping over one of them? Quinn and Peterka will get paid a year or two before the wave that isn’t in the NHL yet will. I’d bet one doesn’t survive before I bet on this organization moving on from ELC contracts. They‘ve paid centers and they’re about to pay D. They have a thousand potential wingers with two that aren’t moving for different reasons (Skinner and Tuch). Quinn and Peterka need to become special enough before 950 thousand dollar guys who won’t get paid for two or three years kick the door down. Bridge deals and then traded is my bet for one of the two.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Everyone should come to peace with the idea of prospects we like being traded. It's almost unavoidable if these guys continue on the path they're on.

Kulich, Rosen, Rousek, Kozak, Cederqvist from just the amerks roster are all nhl caliber prospects. Savoie, Ostlund, Kisakov, Neuchev... who am I leaving out?

There are at most, what, 5 roster spots available at F. And that's not just next year. That's for years. And assuming we sign zero free agents.

Nadeau. And Poltapov, but he'll probably be a few more years in Russia.

 

[BG82]

Mock off season with Hypothetical trade..

To Buffalo - RHD Connor Murphy - 30 years old, 3 / 4.4 aav remaining
LW Tyler Johnson - 32 years old, 1 / 5 million remaining

To Chicago - LW/RW Victor Olofsson
D Ryan Johnson
2023 2nd round draft pick

Resign RW Kyle Okposo 1 / 2.5 million

Murphy averaged over 19 minutes per game, would slot in beside Owen Power on the second defensive unit. Tyler Johnson bring more of a veteran presence with ample big game and playoff experience. Johnson with one year remaining could walk after next season opening a spot up for Kulich or Rosen.

Skinner - Tage - Tuch
Mittlestadt - Cozens - Quinn
Johnson - Krebs - Peterka
Greenway - Jost - Okposo

Dahlin - Samuelsson
Power - Murphy
Stillman - Lyubushkin
Jokiharju

Devon Levi
Ukko Pekka-Luukonen

Thoughts.. yay or nay

 

[Jim Bob]

Should the Sabres pursue Connor Hellebuyck? Who are the options to pair with Devon Levi?

The cost might be high, but could be worth it for the Sabres.

theathletic.com

What would Hellebuyck cost?​

Figuring out how much Hellebuyck would cost is tricky. Certainly, the Sabres would need to part with some promising young players and/or prospects in the deal. But the cost shouldn’t be exorbitant considering Hellebuyck’s contract status. Paying a high cost for a rental player would not fit the way Adams has conducted business since taking over as Buffalo’s general manager. But Hellebuyck would be a difference-maker for a team with playoff aspirations. Goalies of his caliber don’t become available often, so it’s worth kicking the tires on.

There are other teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils that could also use a goalie, have the pieces to make an offer, and may have interest in signing him to a long-term contract. Hellebuyck is No. 1 on The Athletic’s first offseason trade board. If he’s available, the Jets will get plenty of phone calls. For that reason, my best guess is the Sabres would have to be willing to part with a first-round pick, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and another young player or prospect to convince the Jets to make a deal.

Conclusion: Looking at this list of options underscores how big an addition Hellebuyck would be. Every other goalie available will come with some risk or question marks. Hellebuyck looks like a sure thing by comparison. Adding him wouldn’t necessarily prevent the Sabres from making other additions to the roster, but the money and assets could be used elsewhere. That will be a consideration, too. Deciding what to do in net is crucial to figuring out the rest of the offseason puzzle. The Sabres should be monitoring the situation, but I wouldn’t go as far as to say they should be trading players like Matt Savoie or Jiri Kulich in the deal. I have some optimism about Luukkonen long term, so the Sabres’ goalie situation isn’t desperate enough to warrant selling off the top-tier prospects. But if Hellebuyck can be had for less than that, how many players available this season could impact the team as much as he could next season?

I still think the price will end up being more than Adams is willing to pay for one year of Hellebuyck. And I do not believe that Adams has any interest in giving Hellebuyck a 5+ year @ $8.5M+ AAV contract extension.

 

[Fjordy]

Should the Sabres pursue Connor Hellebuyck? Who are the options to pair with Devon Levi?

The cost might be high, but could be worth it for the Sabres.

theathletic.com

I still think the price will end up being more than Adams is willing to pay for one year of Hellebuyck. And I do not believe that Adams has any interest in giving Hellebuyck a 5+ year @ $8.5M+ AAV contract extension.

I wonder what kind of contract Jarry will be looking in UFA.

 

[Diaspora]

Everyone should come to peace with the idea of prospects we like being traded. It's almost unavoidable if these guys continue on the path they're on.

Kulich, Rosen, Rousek, Kozak, Cederqvist from just the amerks roster are all nhl caliber prospects. Savoie, Ostlund, Kisakov, Neuchev... who am I leaving out?

There are at most, what, 5 roster spots available at F. And that's not just next year. That's for years. And assuming we sign zero free agents.

I'm expecting they won't get traded this summer. We may see him move draft capital or B-prospects to fill holes on D. I think Olofsson is the only roster player that will be moved. Savoie will almost certainly be in Buffalo.

I think that's always been his timeline. Even though we're performing better than we'd thought, he's going to let the players on the roster become better as a group together.

Adams' moves begin next summer. At that point, he'll have roster assets at peak value that will get maximum returns, and it will be clear which players are good players and which can be part of a championship core.

We've locked up Tage, Tuch, Skinner, Cozens, Sammy. Soon we lock up Dahlin, Power. They are definitely core.

Unless the team makes a deep playoff run next season, I expect that Adams will be dealing from the roster in summer 24. One or more of these players will be moved: Mitts, Krebs, Greenway, Quinn, JJP, Joki, Stillman, UPL. One or two may graduate to core. At that point, there will be room for Rosen and Kulich to be full-time NHL players.

If we draft with 13OA, there will still be one more big prospect to develop. If we deal it, then we are in the position of most other contending teams -- we'll need to develop depth from later draft choices, trades and UFA.

 

[Matt Ress]

Makes you wonder if Adams will wait until we are on the clock to make a decision regarding 13. Another small skilled forward BPA? Trade down or send it for that impact player.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Makes you wonder if Adams will wait until we are on the clock to make a decision regarding 13. Another small skilled forward BPA? Trade down or send it for that impact player.

Gotta imagine at some point they draft a defenseman. But I doubt they’re picking players for positional need.

 

[Matt Ress]

Gotta imagine at some point they draft a defenseman. But I doubt they’re picking players for positional need.

God I hope so. A lot of times you can get that big defensive defenseman in rounds 3, 4, 5. We pulled Novikov in the 6th (maybe the Russian factor but he has some offense as well). I'd love Simashev if we end up trading down a bit but I guess he wouldn't be terrible at 13 depending on what's available. Dare I suggest drafting several defensemen.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

I'm expecting they won't get traded this summer. We may see him move draft capital or B-prospects to fill holes on D. I think Olofsson is the only roster player that will be moved. Savoie will almost certainly be in Buffalo.

I think that's always been his timeline. Even though we're performing better than we'd thought, he's going to let the players on the roster become better as a group together.

Adams' moves begin next summer. At that point, he'll have roster assets at peak value that will get maximum returns, and it will be clear which players are good players and which can be part of a championship core.

We've locked up Tage, Tuch, Skinner, Cozens, Sammy. Soon we lock up Dahlin, Power. They are definitely core.

Unless the team makes a deep playoff run next season, I expect that Adams will be dealing from the roster in summer 24. One or more of these players will be moved: Mitts, Krebs, Greenway, Quinn, JJP, Joki, Stillman, UPL. One or two may graduate to core. At that point, there will be room for Rosen and Kulich to be full-time NHL players.

If we draft with 13OA, there will still be one more big prospect to develop. If we deal it, then we are in the position of most other contending teams -- we'll need to develop depth from later draft choices, trades and UFA.

I think that was his initial plan. With so many contracts ending in 24 (Comrie, Lyubushkin, Bryson, Joker, Mittelstadt, VO, Etc). However I also think the team progressed faster they they were expecting, and given how close they got to making the playoffs I think that moves the goalposts closer.

Adams has no doubt been very patient with his approach, but some of his comments makes it sound like they definitely are seeing where the team needs to improve. While I don't expect him to sell the farm for playoffs, I think we could see him address some needs earlier than was originally anticipated.

 

[Jim Bob]

Makes you wonder if Adams will wait until we are on the clock to make a decision regarding 13. Another small skilled forward BPA? Trade down or send it for that impact player.

Picks for roster player trades tend to happen before the draft begins and not when teams are on the clock.

The odds are that he sticks at 13 and takes BPA regardless of position. Everyone would love a D prospect like Reinbacher. But, the top 1 or 2 D very likely could be off the board by 13.

I won't be shocked if they take another skilled, high upside F with their 1st round pick.

A trade back or taking a G would be the only things that would really shock me.

 

[Fjordy]

We are now in the path of last season's Devils. They got the parts they needed to get them into the playoffs.

Goalie
Top 4 D
Top 6 forward

I don't think Adams is going to change anything in attack, plus he has already traded for Greenway who I think still has the potential to become a decent top 9 forward. But goalie and top 4 D should probably be on Adams' mind.

 

[Jim Bob]

I wonder what kind of contract Jarry will be looking in UFA.

The top 50 NHL unrestricted free agents: Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Bertuzzi and more

A look at the NHL's top 50 unrestricted free agents, with player cards showing future trajectories and value for the most intriguing ones.

theathletic.com

Tristan Jarry
Projected contract: $6.8 million x six years

If Evolving Hockey’s contract forecasts are to be trusted (and they’re usually very good), then Tristan Jarry might be the next goalie in line for a problematic deal. The most important lesson with goalies is not to overcommit and not to overspend and a six-year deal upward of $7 million would do both.

The appeal is that Jarry is one of the league’s few true workhorses (10th in games played the last two seasons) and his .914 save percentage is starter quality, ranking 14th during the timeframe. The issue is that he’s down to 23rd when factoring for the difficulty of shots faced.

Even if a team is willing to pay for that, there’s no guarantee they’re getting it with Jarry. That’s always the problem with any goalie outside the five best — there’s no guarantee they will stay consistently at that level. The model currently projects Jarry to be the 19th-best goalie next year. There’s a chance he enters the top 10, but that chance is not nearly worth the freight of a big-money deal.

I can't see Adams giving a big money, long term deal to a goalie this summer.

Frederik Andersen
Projected contract: $4.2 million x two years

When healthy, Frederik Andersen is one of the league’s best goalies. We saw that last year in Carolina where he saved 28 goals above expected off a .922 save percentage and we’re seeing it again in these playoffs with a .931, saving six goals above expected. The model projects him to save 12 goals above expected per 82 next season which ranks eighth.

The thing about Andersen is that he struggles to stay healthy. He only managed 34 games this past season and saw his numbers crash back down to earth amid injury concerns. Andersen’s track record is enough to be reasonably confident that a team is getting a starter-quality goalie, but there’s deserved hesitation there. That he plays for a defensively stout Hurricanes team that can often prop up goalie numbers is another concern too.

That would seem to be a contract that Adams might give out if he wants to add a vet this summer.

 

[Matt Ress]

Picks for roster player trades tend to happen before the draft begins and not when teams are on the clock.

The odds are that he sticks at 13 and takes BPA regardless of position. Everyone would love a D prospect like Reinbacher. But, the top 1 or 2 D very likely could be off the board by 13.

I won't be shocked if they take another skilled, high upside F with their 1st round pick.

A trade back or taking a G would be the only things that would really shock me.

A goalie would be shocking and disappointing as well considering they could drop back and get a goalie.

It's tough to figure out at 13 because there's so many possible scenarios but maybe a little bit bigger guy that may not have the offensive upside wouldn't be horrible.

I'm all about the BPA and if that brings the most value to the franchise, like you have a smaller guy that's a tier above the next guy, you have to take him. We can always, and will eventually have to move some of these young forwards anyway. Otherwise, I would love to see more big angry defensemen in the mid rounds.

 

[Duddy]

Biggest thing next seaso will be how quick are they in changing their just offense to a more balanced way of playing. If they don't pick it up quick, we'll miss the playoffs again.

 

[Jim Bob]

The top 50 NHL unrestricted free agents: Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Bertuzzi and more

A look at the NHL's top 50 unrestricted free agents, with player cards showing future trajectories and value for the most intriguing ones.

theathletic.com

Going through this, here are the guys that are interesting to me:

Ryan Graves



There were very few defenders who played tougher minutes than Ryan Graves did this year for the Devils. The results? Around 53 percent of the expected goals and 58 percent of the actual goals. The latter number is a massive step up from a season prior, though it helps when the goalies behind him can actually make a save.

Graves has a reputation for being a strong defensive defender and he’s certainly been thrust in that role during his career. Being a 6-foot-5, 220-pound behemoth helps fill that role too — but the price of that probably shouldn’t be in the ballpark of $5 million per season. And it definitely shouldn’t come on a five-year deal.

The issue with paying that much for Graves is that his puck skills are very limited, making his worth pretty one-dimensional. He struggles in the offensive zone, he struggles to rush up ice, and he struggles to move the puck out of his zone. Graves is a good player for what he can do without the puck, but there are better ways to spend $5 million in this league.

Jesper Fast
Projected contract: $2.8 million x three years
Model value: $1.6 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -5
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

An elite forechecker, one of the game’s best penalty killers and an excellent defensive forward in general. A bit of an overpay due to Fast’s inefficiency with the puck, but without the puck he’s a bottom-six star.

Luke Schenn
Projected contract: $1.9 million x three years
Model value: $1.4 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -2
Projected Defensive Rating: -1

No player saw their stock rise more in the playoffs than Schenn, who elevated his game to previously unseen heights. He was a defensive beast for the Leafs and while teams should be wary not to overpay for that, Schenn is a nice piece to have. A proven playoff performer.

Carson Soucy
Projected contract: $2.4 million x three years
Model value: $2.6 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -2
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

I’ve been a big proponent of Soucy all year for his defensive ability. He’s great in his own zone at retrieving pucks and getting them out, and he’s excellent at defending his blue line.

Antti Raanta
Projected contract: $3.3 million x three years

Injuries are always a concern with Antti Raanta, but when he’s healthy he’s solid. He did well in Carolina behind a solid defensive structure, posting a .911 in 55 games over the past two seasons and saving 14 goals above expected in the process.

Radko Gudas
Projected contract: $3.1 million x three years
Model value: $2.8 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -2
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

Big, strong, mean. The rugged defensive defender is exactly what a team wants and needs on their third pair come playoff time. Not just for his big hits, but his ability to drive play as well. Over the last three seasons, he’s been on the ice for 57 percent of the actual and expected goals.

 

[joshjull]

Biggest thing next seaso will be how quick are they in changing their just offense to a more balanced way of playing. If they don't pick it up quick, we'll miss the playoffs again.

To build on your point, I wonder if Donny ties to create a matchup line. Maybe not an every night head to head one. But one on par with Grier/Drury who took that on as needed, usually to close out a game.

He has 3 pieces to try it with Greenway, Mitts and Cozens. Not as a line but any combo with 2 of them anchoring a line with that focus.

Greenway/Mitts/XXX
or
Mitts/Cozens/XXX
or
Grenway/Cozens/XXX

 

[Fjordy]

The top 50 NHL unrestricted free agents: Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Bertuzzi and more

A look at the NHL's top 50 unrestricted free agents, with player cards showing future trajectories and value for the most intriguing ones.

theathletic.com

I can't see Adams giving a big money, long term deal to a goalie this summer.



That would seem to be a contract that Adams might give out if he wants to add a vet this summer.

Yes, this Jarry contract is too much for me. Although I do not believe that he will receive such a contract and it is unclear even from which team. I thought he'd get some sort of Ullmark or Campbell contracts.

I'm fine with Andersen's contract, I just need to find out if he's good for Buffalo. But this is the work of Adams and his front office.

 

[Jim Bob]

Yes, this Jarry contract is too much for me. Although I do not believe that he will receive such a contract and it is unclear even from which team. I thought he'd get some sort of Ullmark or Campbell contracts.

I'm fine with Andersen's contract, I just need to find out if he's good for Buffalo. But this is the work of Adams and his front office.

Even at 5x5, I don't believe that Adams has any real interest.

If he signs a vet UFA goalie, I would expect it to be for 1-3 years.

 

[Fjordy]

Even at 5x5, I don't believe that Adams has any real interest.

If he signs a vet UFA goalie, I would expect it to be for 1-3 years.

5x5 would be acceptable if they don't want to rush Levi and give him 1-2 years in Rochester and then back up Jarry. But I agree that most likely it will be some kind of option for 1-3 years.

 

[TageGod]

Mock off season with Hypothetical trade..

To Buffalo - RHD Connor Murphy - 30 years old, 3 / 4.4 aav remaining
LW Tyler Johnson - 32 years old, 1 / 5 million remaining

To Chicago - LW/RW Victor Olofsson
D Ryan Johnson
2023 2nd round draft pick

Resign RW Kyle Okposo 1 / 2.5 million

Murphy averaged over 19 minutes per game, would slot in beside Owen Power on the second defensive unit. Tyler Johnson bring more of a veteran presence with ample big game and playoff experience. Johnson with one year remaining could walk after next season opening a spot up for Kulich or Rosen.

Skinner - Tage - Tuch
Mittlestadt - Cozens - Quinn
Johnson - Krebs - Peterka
Greenway - Jost - Okposo

Dahlin - Samuelsson
Power - Murphy
Stillman - Lyubushkin
Jokiharju

Devon Levi
Ukko Pekka-Luukonen

Thoughts.. yay or nay

Big no for me. Take out Johnson completely. Our roster has no space for forward prospects as is. Need a spot for Savoie to start the season. Injuries can bring Kulich up.

 

[Fjordy]

Mayfield
Clifton
Severson
Dumba
Graves
Gavrikov

Schenn
Soucy
Gudas

 

[Jim Bob]