Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[TehDoak]

Does Dumba defend well? It also seemed to me that in recent seasons he began to play worse after some kind of injury.

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In talking to wild fans, he had a shoulder injury, which gimped his shot, so his shooting volume is down. If you also look at his deployments he is being used in more D-zone starts the last couple of years.

So the Advanced stats don't look great, but in context it makes sense.

 

[Chainshot]

Yeah....a couple of years ago he hurt his shoulder (labrum?), and hasn't remotely been the same since.

Tore a pec in this fight:



Tkachuk pushes his left arm back twice in the fight, that's where it happened.

Some blogger speculation on the "what if" he hadn't been hurt:

Matt Dumba Is One Of the Wild's All-Time "What Ifs?" - Zone Coverage

Four years ago, to this day, Minnesota Wild fans were witnessing one of the greatest breakout seasons in history. Matt Dumba already had 10 goals and 18

zonecoverage.com

 

[Gras]

Thanks for the feedback. Always glad to learn a few things.

I've only ever lived in high-tax states. I'm not a multi-millionaire, and I just consider it to be a fact of life. To me it's a cost of doing business and taking care of old shit (infrastructure, not retirees).

But, yeah -- low taxes and low expenses is a tough combo to beat. At least the Sabres get to benefit from one.

I remember having a recruiter try to sell me on a job in the bay area, in real dollars it was like double what my income was, but when you factor in the cost of living it was only about a 10k increase.

 

[Irie]

That isn't even close to accurate.

This might be the case for some hedge fund guys who will have a 40 year career.

A NHL player is lucky to have a 10 year career. 3 of those years are on ELC, unless they were a top 5 draft pick, will be a 3-5M contract with bonuses. And if you have to play a year or two in the minors, significantly less. And for most players, their 2nd contract will be a bridge style deal, 2-3 year deal. So, realistically, you are halfway through your playing career before you get a chance at huge dollars.

So, when you finally get to making that big money (which, you'll likely only get one bite at the apple), would you rather outlay, without even TAKING tax into consideration. (not just income, but property, etc)

300k downpayment on a 1.5M property in a "low"cost of income city (Buffalo, nashville, Raleigh, etc) OR a 800k downpayment on a roughly equivalent 4M property in San Jose, NYC, Boston. That is huge money. Then consider the costs you'll never recoup like property taxes, high sales taxes, cost of school tuition for kids....that shit adds up quick. This is why the mid cost, low tax cities like Raleigh, Tampa, Nashville, Dallas, Vegas, Phoenix (if they ever pull their head out of their ass and have a team) are going to be desirable locations for guys when they get their big contracts.

The difference, of course, playing in NYC, Boston, Chicago, Toronto, LA, comes with a certain lifestyle. Amazing nightlife, top tier elite restaurants, etc. Buffalo is great...but it's a small market city with big city taxes. Buffalo is competing with Pittsburgh, Columbus, etc as cold weather small market cities. And they have a much higher income tax rate.

You are vastly underselling the difference between living in Buffalo and elsewhere. Go listen to Berglund's interview on the cam and stick podcast. They gave an honest impression of the city from an outsider's perspective. Players don't leave the hotel. They order room service if they have to eat a meal while in the city.

Most players are 27-30 when they sign their big contract. A lot of them aren't married and aren't settling down yet. Buffalo presents:

Bad Weather for the time you HAVE to be there.
Big city tax rates
Small market amenities with no real downtown/nightlife.

Buffalo is a great place to raise a family and a great community. For most players...that is a post career concern.

Great points and well stated.

I would add that when we look at career earnings for NHL players, the actual take home pay is usually half or less of those gross numbers. (Pronger breaks it down quite well in many videos available on youtube which gives a great explanation of all the costs the players incur),

One thing that is a factor in the big markets that have high housing costs is real-estate market swings. While it seems like a terrible con, it can be a huge boon if timed right.

Players that bought 4 millon dollar homes in San Jose anytime between 2012 and 2017 and kept them for 3 to 5 years may have experienced 30-50% valuation increases.

You can't really get that kind of valuation sway in a the lower housing cost markets.

Admittedly, most players probably are not in tune with the housing market trends in certain areas, but if they were, then those outrageous home prices could be a draw at times, or a major deterrent at others.

 

[Snippit]

I wonder what it would take to acquire Zach Whitecloud's services.

If any team is in dire need of picks/prospects, it's VGK.

 

[Uberpecker]

I wonder if a deal with CBJ around Peeke and Johnson could be a possibility.

They seem to be looking for (potential) top 4 LHD, while having a surplus of RHD.

Now obviously this hinges on Johnson wanting to go there, but if a top 4 spot on an up and coming team is what he's looking for, it's certainly not the worst place.

That then brings about the question, why for Johnson to not just sign there?
Well, if through the deal he can get a competitor for a roster spot out of the way, that would be in his interest, too.

To me, while unorthodox, this looks like a possible win-win-win situation.

Thoughts?

 

[Fjordy]

I wonder if a deal with CBJ around Peeke and Johnson could be a possibility.

They seem to be looking for (potential) top 4 LHD, while having a surplus of RHD.

Now obviously this hinges on Johnson wanting to go there, but if a top 4 spot on an up and coming team is what he's looking for, it's certainly not the worst place.

That then brings about the question, why for Johnson to not just sign there?
Well, if through the deal he can get a competitor for a roster spot out of the way, that would be in his interest, too.

To me, while unorthodox, this looks like a possible win-win-win situation.

Thoughts?

Peeke was -41 last season, woah. I know that +/- is a bad stats to evaluate, especially for a team that has been in the top 3 since the end, but I have seen a lot of Peeke to CapFriendly trades, maybe he is not so good anymore?

 

[Chainshot]

Peeke was -41 last season, woah. I know that +/- is a bad stats to evaluate, especially for a team that has been in the top 3 since the end, but I have seen a lot of Pekee to CapFriendly trades, maybe he is not so good anymore?

He was playing further up the lineup than they wanted. The Jackets were racked by injuries and terrible goaltending. That said, who knows if that's even someone they would consider.

I wonder what it would take to acquire Zach Whitecloud's services.

If any team is in dire need of picks/prospects, it's VGK.

Whitecloud is one of the better contracts on the Knights. How do they replace his minutes?

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Whitecloud is one of the better contracts on the Knights. How do they replace his minutes?

I think Martinez is the contract they cut loose, and if Lehner comes back probably him also. 8 team no trade list for Martinez and 5 team no trade list for Lehner this offseason, pretty easy to work around those.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

If we are targeting a Vegas D I would love McNabb back. HE never should have been moved. Exactly what this D has missed for oh about 5+ seasons.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Peeke was -41 last season, woah. I know that +/- is a bad stats to evaluate, especially for a team that has been in the top 3 since the end, but I have seen a lot of Peeke to CapFriendly trades, maybe he is not so good anymore?

Peeke was also 4th in the league in shot blocks last season.

Vegas had 2/3 top shot blockers (Martinez and McNabb).

 

[Ace]

Peeke was also 4th in the league in shot blocks last season.

We already knew from his plus minus that he got caved in out there. Though I guess a second stat to confirm it is good too.

 

[Beerz]

Give me McNasty and Zadorov back... give our D a little bite.

 

[Fjordy]

Need

 

[MarkusKetterer]

We already knew from his plus minus that he got caved in out there. Though I guess a second stat to confirm it is good too.

Look at all these shitty dmen on shitty teams!

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

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Look at all these shitty dmen on shitty teams!

I mean Risto, Edmundson, Chiarot and Savard block a lot of shots also. It's definitely a plus to have a guy willing to do it, but they need to do more than just that.

I've never watched Peeke play so I can't comment on his ability one way or the other from an eye test. I will say his GA/60 at both even strength and on the PK were among the worst on his team among regular players. Considerably worse than Gavrikov and Gudbranson. Obviously having a better team around him would help, I'm just not too sure how much better he would be on a good team. Could just be another Risto.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I mean Risto, Edmundson, Chiarot and Savard block a lot of shots also. It's definitely a plus to have a guy willing to do it, but they need to do more than just that.

I've never watched Peeke play so I can't comment on his ability one way or the other. I will say his GA/60 at both even strength and on the PK were among the worst on his team among regular players. Considerably worse than Gavrikov and Gudbranson. Obviously having a better team around him would help, I'm just not too sure how much better he would be on a good team. Could just be another Risto.

First Flyers on the list are Provorov and Seeler. The rest of your list don’t appear until well down it where I have to pay to view their numbers.

As for his value, the few Columbus fans I’ve talked to peg his value at either Buffalo’s 2nd or Johnson, so it’s not like he’d be a massive overpay. Plus there is the context of the Jackets getting decimated by injuries, so nobody looked good this year.

 

[The Blunder Years]

No to Dumba, think he would be viewed as the new Risto pretty quickly. His play has dropped off a lot, while his price probably hasn’t as much.

Severson would be a great fit and add. Just think the cost and term would be a tough pill to swallow. He is only 28 so I think you could expect another 5-6 years of solid play from him, which would hopefully be the extent of the contract. Sign Power to a bridge and draft some dmen to be able to work in on their ELCs at some point.

We are going to have a lot of forwards on ELCs over the next 3-4 years, so I think you may not have a cap crunch until 2027-28 at the earliest. I wonder if a 6x6 for Severson would get It done.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

First Flyers on the list are Provorov and Seeler. The rest of your list don’t appear until well down it where I have to pay to view their numbers.

My point was that lot's of players block shots. You're going to nitpick between a guy who blocked 2.5 game vs a guy who blocked 2 per game? Don't forget Columbus allowed 2900 shots this season, Philly allowed 2585. Wayyyy more opportunity to block shots on Columbus when you're playing more minutes and facing more shots.

 

[Chainshot]

Peeke got ridden hard by Columbus when they were going through their defense injuries - it reminds me of how Buffalo would put Risto out there in the pre-Eichel and early Eichel era because part of it was they didn't have anyone else. He was 39th in ice time among all defensemen in the NHL this year. That just shouldn't happen. He's the one name in the top 50 that stands out as why is he there?

 

[MarkusKetterer]

My point was that lot's of players block shots. You're going to nitpick between a guy who blocked 2.5 game vs a guy who blocked 2 per game? Don't forget Columbus allowed 2900 shots this season, Philly allowed 2585. Wayyyy more opportunity to block shots on Columbus when you're playing more minutes and facing more shots.

The Flyers thing was more of a fun trivia fact, seeing you don’t really think of Provorov as a shot blocker.

 

[CowbellConray]

Im not as scared of Dumba as some others. I think he can absolutely be a true top 4 D, who will be in his prime years through the duration of the contract. Question is price. Will he command 5+ in the open market

 

[Dingo44]

Im not as scared of Dumba as some others. I think he can absolutely be a true top 4 D, who will be in his prime years through the duration of the contract. Question is price. Will he command 5+ in the open market

Maybe 2017 Dumba. Not 2023 Dumba. Yuck.

 

[CowbellConray]

Maybe 2017 Dumba. Not 2023 Dumba. Yuck.

Dumba 2023 was the worst season of his career, but I think its more of an anomaly than the norm. He has consistently been a #3/#4 in aggregate for 5-6 years. Get him under Granato's system, with Power as his partner, and I would think he would look relatively solid

 

[Jim Bob]

Dumba 2023 was the worst season of his career, but I think its more of an anomaly than the norm. He has consistently been a #3/#4 in aggregate for 5-6 years. Get him under Granato's system, with Power as his partner, and I would think he would look relatively solid

Not if his shoulder is the limiting factor and it is only getting worse as he gets older.