Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Ace]

People being afraid of the future cap amuse me. They’ve really sold you guys something.

 

[TehDoak]

I'd give him 7x7 and wouldn't sweat it. He makes WAY more sense to me than Dumba.

I like Severson, but you are way overshooting his market.

If you consider the UFA market, none of the contenders have cap space. If you are looking at teams that have both needs at RHD and cap space:

Us, Detroit, Anaheim, San Jose, and Arizona.

No big name is signing in Arizona (nor are they spending money)

San Jose likely is going to be pretty 'big contract on D' averse next year while they are paying Vlasic/Karlsson 18M+

So, that leaves:

Us, Detroit, Anaheim.

In Detroit: Who are you going to play with? Seider is a RD.

In Anaheim, who are you going to play with? Drysdale is their RD of the future. Fowler?

Our top 3 D-men are all LD. So, you come in, nothing is set in stone on where you will play. You aren't locked behind anyone. Everything is on the table, in terms of opportunity. Worst case scenario, maybe it's Samuelsson on the 2nd pair behind Power-Dahlin.

We are going to have to pay the Buffalo tax....at least a little. I don't think we're going to have to overpay in BOTH term and dollars that. a 7x7 deal for Severson would represent.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

People being afraid of the future cap amuse me. They’ve really sold you guys something.

I'm not afraid of it. I think we could make a big contract work and still re-sign the kids. We could probably even make a bad contract work, I just don't see why I need to commit to big money and term for a second pairing defenseman when there are trade options that won't require that, and even some FA's that could work that won't either.

The way I see it, we are an attractive spot because players will have noticed us this year being an exciting and close knit team, we have a clear spot for a top 4d, and we are one of the few teams that can afford a 7 mil contract. The most desirable spots for those FA's won't even be able to offer 4x6.5, so that's where I start.

 

[Dingo44]

As much as i want another good D, I'd hesitate to go longer than 4 or 5 years for any UFA. 6 or 7 years would be a large, unnecessary risk for a young team that hasn't fully turned the corner yet, especially if it's a high cap hit.

I'd offer 4 years, and around 6.5 for Dumba or Severson. Much more than that and I simply move on to other options.

No Dumba. No way.

 

[paulmm3]

New York State taxes do mean we have to offer a little bit more on average to sign players.

 

[dkollidas]

New York State taxes do mean we have to offer a little bit more on average to sign players.

People also don’t consider cost of living in Buffalo. Very cheap when looked at next to places in California, Florida etc

 

[Old Navy Goat]

That's why financially astute players should beeline to Nashville

 

[Diaspora]

Once you're a muli-millionaire, cost of living doesn't matter.

Playing forty games in NYS at ten percent means $50k for each million in taxes. No different from other teams in NY, Cali, Mass and Canada. That's before factoring in accountants for rich people. No need to make it political. We pay market rates.

The "Buffalo tax" comes in this way:

If your wife don't like snowy winters, it doesn't matter how much they offer you. If you like bright lights and parties, Chippewa Street ain't gonna cut it. (If you like snake farms and cocaine, you're gonna hate it everywhere.)

But if you like suburbs, Buffalo suburbs are as good as any other suburbs anywhere in North America. Not all hockey players like that, but plenty do. Sun worshippers and party boys need not apply. If you focus on your job and try to keep some stability at home, then Buffalo is as good as any other NHL market.

Not a moral issue -- just a matter of taste.

 

[Jim Bob]

Once you're a muli-millionaire, cost of living doesn't matter.

Playing forty games in NYS at ten percent means $50k for each million in taxes. No different from other teams in NY, Cali, Mass and Canada. That's before factoring in accountants for rich people. No need to make it political. We pay market rates.

The "Buffalo tax" comes in this way:

If your wife don't like snowy winters, it doesn't matter how much they offer you. If you like bright lights and parties, Chippewa Street ain't gonna cut it. (If you like snake farms and cocaine, you're gonna hate it everywhere.)

But if you like suburbs, Buffalo suburbs are as good as any other suburbs anywhere in North America. Not all hockey players like that, but plenty do. Sun worshippers and party boys need not apply. If you focus on your job and try to keep some stability at home, then Buffalo is as good as any other NHL market.

Not a moral issue -- just a matter of taste.

Don't tell that to Craig Rivet.

 

[Diaspora]

Don't tell that to Craig Rivet.

Is he a multi millionaire?

 

[Jim Bob]

Is he a multi millionaire?

His last contract alone was worth $14M.

The story he tells of his reaction to the lower cost of living when moving from SJ to Buffalo talks to how things like that matter even to multi-millionaire NHLers.

I also have experience listening to the wife of an NHLer lament the loss they took when selling their home after her husband ended a contract worth over $10M in total to sign with a different team as a UFA on a deal worth over $20M in total.

These things matter regardless of how much people make.

 

[Chainshot]

Is he a multi millionaire?

He talks about not realizing that real estate prices were so different between places so when they put their house in the Bay Area up for sale, he told his realtor to show them houses at about the same amount in WNY. So, he and his wife arrive to find themselves being shown enormous homes and in his telling, has a Riv moment where he's kind of pissed about it, only to discover that he was probably going to make hundreds of thousands of dollars on the difference in home and still wind up in something bigger/better in WNY than he had in SJ.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

I have an extremely well to do friend that owns a multinational company out of Nashville. No state tax, property taxes 60 to 80% lower than Florida, public schools good enough to skip Private at least in Franklin and Brentwood. His brothers lament having to live in Mexico and California to run subsidiary offices.

When I was contemplating returning stateside he was extolling the virtues of the region. Family happenstance occurred that negated my need to return so Thailand instead, now he adds Pattaya to his travels whenever his wife and baby go to the province

 

[Diaspora]

Thanks for the feedback. Always glad to learn a few things.

I've only ever lived in high-tax states. I'm not a multi-millionaire, and I just consider it to be a fact of life. To me it's a cost of doing business and taking care of old shit (infrastructure, not retirees).

But, yeah -- low taxes and low expenses is a tough combo to beat. At least the Sabres get to benefit from one.

 

[Jim Bob]

Thanks for the feedback. Always glad to learn a few things.

I've only ever lived in high-tax states. I'm not a multi-millionaire, and I just consider it to be a fact of life. To me it's a cost of doing business and taking care of old shit (infrastructure, not retirees).

But, yeah -- low taxes and low expenses is a tough combo to beat. At least the Sabres get to benefit from one.

I definitely agree with the lifestyle part of things.

Buffalo will appeal more to players that have families than younger players that want more of the big city party lifestyle. Okposo liking it here is an example of that.

Buffalo is also attractive to players from Western Ontario as they can be close to home and have lower taxes and cost of living as opposed to playing in Toronto. Skinner waiving to come here is an example of that.

And the fact that so many retired former Sabres, and even some ex-NHLers that never played here, retire in the area talks to how it is an attractive spot for some players.

 

[BuiltTagonTough]

And honestly, and I’m not saying this one way or another, it’s not unbelievable to me that a player would pick a team based on political climate. I’m willing to bet conservative players think twice about signing in California or New York, and I bet the same applies to liberal players in Texas and Florida.

*This is not an endorsement one way or another and I’m sure many players couldn’t care less, just saying it wouldn’t surprise me.*

 

[TehDoak]

Once you're a muli-millionaire, cost of living doesn't matter.

That isn't even close to accurate.

This might be the case for some hedge fund guys who will have a 40 year career.

A NHL player is lucky to have a 10 year career. 3 of those years are on ELC, unless they were a top 5 draft pick, will be a 3-5M contract with bonuses. And if you have to play a year or two in the minors, significantly less. And for most players, their 2nd contract will be a bridge style deal, 2-3 year deal. So, realistically, you are halfway through your playing career before you get a chance at huge dollars.

So, when you finally get to making that big money (which, you'll likely only get one bite at the apple), would you rather outlay, without even TAKING tax into consideration. (not just income, but property, etc)

300k downpayment on a 1.5M property in a "low"cost of income city (Buffalo, nashville, Raleigh, etc) OR a 800k downpayment on a roughly equivalent 4M property in San Jose, NYC, Boston. That is huge money. Then consider the costs you'll never recoup like property taxes, high sales taxes, cost of school tuition for kids....that shit adds up quick. This is why the mid cost, low tax cities like Raleigh, Tampa, Nashville, Dallas, Vegas, Phoenix (if they ever pull their head out of their ass and have a team) are going to be desirable locations for guys when they get their big contracts.

Playing forty games in NYS at ten percent means $50k for each million in taxes. No different from other teams in NY, Cali, Mass and Canada. That's before factoring in accountants for rich people. No need to make it political. We pay market rates.

The difference, of course, playing in NYC, Boston, Chicago, Toronto, LA, comes with a certain lifestyle. Amazing nightlife, top tier elite restaurants, etc. Buffalo is great...but it's a small market city with big city taxes. Buffalo is competing with Pittsburgh, Columbus, etc as cold weather small market cities. And they have a much higher income tax rate.

The "Buffalo tax" comes in this way:

If your wife don't like snowy winters, it doesn't matter how much they offer you. If you like bright lights and parties, Chippewa Street ain't gonna cut it. (If you like snake farms and cocaine, you're gonna hate it everywhere.)

But if you like suburbs, Buffalo suburbs are as good as any other suburbs anywhere in North America. Not all hockey players like that, but plenty do. Sun worshippers and party boys need not apply. If you focus on your job and try to keep some stability at home, then Buffalo is as good as any other NHL market.

Not a moral issue -- just a matter of taste.

You are vastly underselling the difference between living in Buffalo and elsewhere. Go listen to Berglund's interview on the cam and stick podcast. They gave an honest impression of the city from an outsider's perspective. Players don't leave the hotel. They order room service if they have to eat a meal while in the city.

Most players are 27-30 when they sign their big contract. A lot of them aren't married and aren't settling down yet. Buffalo presents:

Bad Weather for the time you HAVE to be there.
Big city tax rates
Small market amenities with no real downtown/nightlife.

Buffalo is a great place to raise a family and a great community. For most players...that is a post career concern.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

No Dumba. No way.

I could be talked out of Dumba, but he skates well, is decent defensively, is physical, teammates love him, has some offensive upside although that hasn't show up the last couple of years. He's better than Joki, IMO. Is he a perfect fit to play with Power, no, but 4x6 doesn't preclude us from adding more.

Curious why you are so dead set against him?

 

[Jim Bob]

Buffalo is a great place to raise a family and a great community. For most players...that is a post career concern.

With players lasting longer and longer as pros, that is not a post career concern. It is a post-ELC concern and even a post-RFA window concern.

But, lots of veterans are parents and quality of life for a family is part of their calculus.

 

[Fjordy]

I could be talked out of Dumba, but he skates well, is decent defensively, is physical, teammates love him, has some offensive upside although that hasn't show up the last couple of years. He's better than Joki, IMO. Is he a perfect fit to play with Power, no, but 4x6 doesn't preclude us from adding more.

Curious why you are so dead set against him?

Does Dumba defend well? It also seemed to me that in recent seasons he began to play worse after some kind of injury.

 

[Zman5778]

Does Dumba defend well? It also seemed to me that in recent seasons he began to play worse after some kind of injury

Yeah....a couple of years ago he hurt his shoulder (labrum?), and hasn't remotely been the same since.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

Does Dumba defend well? It also seemed to me that in recent seasons he began to play worse after some kind of injury.

View attachment 704660

Not as familiar with JFresh's model, but on Hockeyviz, he looks pretty good in terms of shot suppression and xGA.

Here's Joki for comparison:

 

[Fjordy]

Not as familiar with JFresh's model, but on Hockeyviz, he looks pretty good in terms of shot suppression and xGA.

View attachment 704680

Here's Joki for comparison:

View attachment 704682

I just always thought he was more of a shooting guard, not that I'm totally against Dumba on a reasonable contract, but there are probably more interesting options to help improve the defense.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

I just always thought he was more of a shooting guard, not that I'm totally against Dumba on a reasonable contract, but there are probably more interesting options to help improve the defense.

I'm open to any defensemen who's an upgrade, but I agree. There are probably better options. Wasn't aware of his injury history either. From poking around, it sounds like the biggest thing it affected was his shot, which apparently hasn't been the same since. Still think he'd be a decent add as long as the term was reasonable.