Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[elchud]

More than Eichel. Just like Cozens signed for just a little but less than Tages deal.

 

[Jim Bob]

Also, of the past 20 contracts signed by players 26yo or younger with an AAV of $8M+, 14 have been for 8 years (Aho, Meier, PLD, Larkin, Hintz, Barzal, Kyrou, Stutzle, M Tkachuk, Sergachev, Thomas, J Hughes, McAvoy, and Barkov), 2 have been for 7 years (Fox & B Tkachuk), 1 has been for 6 years (Werenski), one has been for 5 years (Kaprizov), and two have been for 4 years (Matthews & Laine).

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Also, of the past 20 contracts signed by players 26yo or younger with an AAV of $8M+, 14 have been for 8 years (Aho, Meier, PLD, Larkin, Hintz, Barzal, Kyrou, Stutzle, M Tkachuk, Sergachev, Thomas, J Hughes, McAvoy, and Barkov), 2 have been for 7 years (Fox & B Tkachuk), 1 has been for 6 years (Werenski), one has been for 5 years (Kaprizov), and two have been for 4 years (Matthews & Laine).

I understand this point - but here we're talking about guys in their mid to late 20s signing a third contract.

In the same way that Matthews (arguably) broke the mould for guys in their early 20s signing a second contract, i expect his latest contract to break the mould for guys in their mid to late 20s signing a third contract.

If from this point forward, we see a bunch of players continue to sign relatively team-friendly 7/8 year extensions - I'll concede that you are right.

But i don't expect to see it happen - especially while the cap is projected to remain relatively flat over the next few years.

So with that said - 8/80m for Dahlin would be great. I'd still be happy with something like 8/85. Just keep him around for the maximum possible term.

 

[Jim Bob]

I understand this point - but here we're talking about guys in their mid to late 20s signing a third contract.

In the same way that Matthews (arguably) broke the mould for guys in their early 20s signing a second contract, i expect his latest contract to break the mould for guys in their mid to late 20s signing a third contract.

If from this point forward, we see a bunch of players continue to sign relatively team-friendly 7/8 year extensions - I'll concede that you are right.

But i don't expect to see it happen - especially while the cap is projected to remain relatively flat over the next few years.

So with that said - 8/80m for Dahlin would be great. I'd still be happy with something like 8/85. Just keep him around for the maximum possible term.

70% of the last 20 contracts of $8M+ AAV signed by players 26yo or younger have been for 8 years.

80% of those deals have been for 7+ years.

 

[elchud]

The escrow will be paid off several months ahead of schedule and the league has all time high revenue.

The cap isn't going to remain relatively flat. This is the last season of that. 87.5 (and probably a hit more) in 24/25 and 92 in 25/26. 5percent growth is very realistic after that, 4.25 million a year or so. Even if it's half that, that's still significantly more than the cap freeze the past few years.

 

[joshjull]

Ridiculous. There are endless teams in the NHL who would simply move on from
Bryson and recover the $1 M in cap. Happening all over the league. Kid yourself all you want. Leaving $10 M on the table is just not the norm. It’s the exception. It doesn't mean success cannot happen, it means you are not using all your weapons.

I don’t think you’re understanding this.

You keep talking about the non roster defensive depth, ranting about Bryson and that we should spend more money to acquire that depth. That somehow moving Bryson accomplishes us spending more money on defensive depth. It doesn’t.

Typically teams have #8-10 dmen who are vet pros like Clague at 775k or prospects like Johnson at 925K. There are exceptions but sub 1mil cap hits are generally the norm.

Prior to the Boosh trade we were spending more than the norm on two of our #8-10 dmen. Boosh was at (2.75mil cap), Bryson (1.85mil) and Clague (775k).

Moving Boosh didn't increase how much we spent on those depth spots. It dropped down by about 1.8mil with Johnson sliding into that group. Moving on from Bryson will lead to the same thing…less spent on the #8-10 spots.

If you want to change the discussion away from non roster defensive depth and upgrading the starting 6. We currently have 8.7mil in cap space. Bryson doesn’t need to be gone for us to make moves. We already have plenty of cap space for that.

I could care less if they trade Bryson or keep him. I have no idea why you have such fixation on him because he doesn't matter enough to warrant it.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

It’s not about Bryson. It’s about not using the cap in a season where playoffs are pretty key. There seems to be more than a few fans who think Sabres are a lock to make it. It was close to 100% in one poll. I love where the team is going but they are throwing away cap space that might have made them better. It could have been a swap in top 6 but my point is even keeping Bush created some potential advantage for injury trouble or simply creating some days off in a long sked. The forward depth would have been nice too. I see Rousek on opening day lineup of Kulich doesn’t make team. Not in love with that

 

[Dingo44]

It’s not about Bryson. It’s about not using the cap in a season where playoffs are pretty key. There seems to be more than a few fans who think Sabres are a lock to make it. It was close to 100% in one poll. I love where the team is going but they are throwing away cap space that might have made them better. It could have been a swap in top 6 but my point is even keeping Bush created some potential advantage for injury trouble or simply creating some days off in a long sked. The forward depth would have been nice too. I see Rousek on opening day lineup of Kulich doesn’t make team. Not in love with that

How does signing Tarasenko for $5 million for one year to fill in for Quinn for three months instead of trying Kulich, Savoie, or Rousek there help the Sabres get better? What do we do with Tarasenko when Quinn is healthy enough to play again? I'd rather use that spot to try out some prospects instead of paying some aged vet who isn't going to be around when we're actually in the Cup chase.

 

[AaronPines]

How does signing Tarasenko for $5 million for one year to fill in for Quinn for three months instead of trying Kulich, Savoie, or Rousek there help the Sabres get better? What do we do with Tarasenko when Quinn is healthy enough to play again? I'd rather use that spot to try out some prospects instead of paying some aged vet who isn't going to be around when we're actually in the Cup chase.

Further, I think that we already have a defensive liability scoring only forward (VO) who plays the Tarasenko role.

And I think Quinn will take his spot back when he's healthy. Giving one of the young guys a chance to prove they can score and be a more well rounded player, is better for this team long term than having two $5M AAV players on the bench in the playoffs.

 

[Mattilaus]

It’s not about Bryson. It’s about not using the cap in a season where playoffs are pretty key. There seems to be more than a few fans who think Sabres are a lock to make it. It was close to 100% in one poll. I love where the team is going but they are throwing away cap space that might have made them better. It could have been a swap in top 6 but my point is even keeping Bush created some potential advantage for injury trouble or simply creating some days off in a long sked. The forward depth would have been nice too. I see Rousek on opening day lineup of Kulich doesn’t make team. Not in love with that

Predicting the Sabres will make the playoffs is not equal to saying they are a lock to make the playoffs. This is a disingenuous argument.

 

[Ehran]

Do we know what the schedule is for the Sabres' training camp?

They have an exhibition game on the 24th of September but I couldn't find info on when camp starts, when players need to report, etc.

 

[Mattilaus]

Do we know what the schedule is for the Sabres' training camp?

They have an exhibition game on the 24th of September but I couldn't find info on when camp starts, when players need to report, etc.

Ughhh, If the Sabres start playing before I am allowed to go home I am going to cry. I juuuusstt got my man cave all equipped before we were evacuated due to wild fire. Like literally the day before I wall mounted the new TV.

 

[HOOats]

How does signing Tarasenko for $5 million for one year to fill in for Quinn for three months instead of trying Kulich, Savoie, or Rousek there help the Sabres get better? What do we do with Tarasenko when Quinn is healthy enough to play again? I'd rather use that spot to try out some prospects instead of paying some aged vet who isn't going to be around when we're actually in the Cup chase.

Bingo. Plus if we're fully in the playoff race after the holidays, we'll have a rare advantage as a competitor with tons of in-season cap space. That opens up major flexibility to acquire real talent in-season without having to match salary going back. Combine that with having another half-season's worth of viewings on our own prospects and I think the next stage of Adams' team-building approach could start before the deadline.

 

[Djp]

A 2-4 year deal coming off of an ELC is almost always referred to as a bridge deal. That is what we called Dahlin's deal.

And I never said that there were no players that went that route. It's just that the vast majority are still signing for 7-8 years, especially if it is a 3rd deal like Dahlin will be signing.

Bridge to me means they are an RFA at contract end

 

[Djp]

The escrow will be paid off several months ahead of schedule and the league has all time high revenue.

The cap isn't going to remain relatively flat. This is the last season of that. 87.5 (and probably a hit more) in 24/25 and 92 in 25/26. 5percent growth is very realistic after that, 4.25 million a year or so. Even if it's half that, that's still significantly more than the cap freeze the past few years.

given the streaming/ cable/Bally revenue problems don’t expect much increase beyond $2M

How does signing Tarasenko for $5 million for one year to fill in for Quinn for three months instead of trying Kulich, Savoie, or Rousek there help the Sabres get better? What do we do with Tarasenko when Quinn is healthy enough to play again? I'd rather use that spot to try out some prospects instead of paying some aged vet who isn't going to be around when we're actually in the Cup chase.

i agree but acquiring a player costs something while signing a UFA to 1-2 yr doesn’t cost that.

I don’t think KA is going for UFA in 24 summer rentals at the deadline Unless it’s a small add like moving a 4th.

they could sign Kane to an incentive contract and view him as a deadline acquisition

Do we know what the schedule is for the Sabres' training camp?

They have an exhibition game on the 24th of September but I couldn't find info on when camp starts, when players need to report, etc.

after that rookie scrimmage camp. The season starts when the draft period ends because then everyone at start of camp is 18+.

bedard didn’t sign till he did because he couldn’t until he was 18 yrs old which happened the day he signed.

 

[toddkaz]

Buffalo still looking at Hanifin?

Flames & Sabres Could Be Perfect Trade Partners for Noah Hanifin - The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

The Calgary Flames are believed to still be shopping Noah Hanifin, and may have the perfect trading partner in the Buffalo Sabres.

thehockeywriters.com

 

[Jacob582]

Do we know what the schedule is for the Sabres' training camp?

They have an exhibition game on the 24th of September but I couldn't find info on when camp starts, when players need to report, etc.

The last few years the team confirmed training camp dates pretty late. Typically we find out early September.

If it's like last year then I am guessing that they report for physicals and testing Wednesday, September 20 with the first on-ice session the next day.

 

[Irie]

Buffalo still looking at Hanifin?

Flames & Sabres Could Be Perfect Trade Partners for Noah Hanifin - The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

The Calgary Flames are believed to still be shopping Noah Hanifin, and may have the perfect trading partner in the Buffalo Sabres.

thehockeywriters.com

Hope not, but if Conroy does call, I really hope Adams inquires about Kylington.

 

[Gras]

Hope not, but if Conroy does call, I really hope Adams inquires about Kylington.

Would he qualify for a conditioning stint in Roch if they acquired him since he missed all of last season. Tough to know what youd get out of him

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Hope not, but if Conroy does call, I really hope Adams inquires about Kylington.

I'd really like to know why/how you think Kylington would improve this team more than Hanifin would....

The only arguements i have seen posted by a few here is 'hes from Boston' / 'hes friends with Eichel'. IE complete non-arguements.

 

[Fjordsen]

I'd really like to know why/how you think Kylington would improve this team more than Hanifin would....

The only arguements i have seen posted by a few here is 'hes from Boston' / 'hes friends with Eichel'. IE complete non-arguements.

Hope not, but if Conroy does call, I really hope Adams inquires about Kylington.

It seems to me that both of these players are not very suitable for us. They are not too great in defense, more prone to offense, both are left-handed.

 

[Irie]

I'd really like to know why/how you think Kylington would improve this team more than Hanifin would....

The only arguements i have seen posted by a few here is 'hes from Boston' / 'hes friends with Eichel'. IE complete non-arguements.

Kylington is underrated in my opinion. He has more skill than most realize, has solid hockey sense, and strong compete. He is a late bloomer and I think there may be another level to his game yet.

Hanifin is overrated in my opinion. He's been playing almost exclusively with two of the better defenders in the league the past few seasons in Tanev and Andersson, and I strongly believe that when he finally ends up away from them and is asked to anchor a pairing with an inferior defensive player, the wheels are going to come off.

Kylington is fairly paid, could probably use a change of scenery after leaving the team last season, should not cost a ridiculous penny to acquire, and might(total speculation on my part) like to re-sign in Buffalo to play on a D corps with Dahlin.

Hanifin is looking to get paid on his next deal and I don't think his salary will fit in the long-term structure of the team. Hanifin is going to cost more than he is worth to acquire if the rumors of Conroy's asking price are to be believed. There is a good chance Hanifin will likely test the UFA waters to see what his options are around the league before re-signing with anyone.

Both players would be a risk to acquire given their contract status, but I like the upside and cost on Kylington, not so much on Hanifin.

*note* - I am not saying Kylington would be the beter player if acquired, just that the value and risk vs reward are much better.

 

[HaNotsri]

If we really a going with Levi+cannon fodder in net I hope we make another upgrade on defense.

Samuelsson-Dahlin
Power-Cliffton
Stillman-Johnson
Jokiharju

It feels a little off.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Kylington is underrated in my opinion. He has more skill than most realize, has solid hockey sense, and strong compete. He is a late bloomer and I think there may be another level to his game yet.

Hanifin is overrated in my opinion. He's been playing almost exclusively with two of the better defenders in the league the past few seasons in Tanev and Andersson, and I strongly believe that when he finally ends up away from them and is asked to anchor a pairing with an inferior defensive player, the wheels are going to come off.

Kylington is fairly paid, could probably use a change of scenery after leaving the team last season, should not cost a ridiculous penny to acquire, and might(total speculation on my part) like to re-sign in Buffalo to play on a D corps with Dahlin.

Hanifin is looking to get paid on his next deal and I don't think his salary will fit in the long-term structure of the team. Hanifin is going to cost more than he is worth to acquire if the rumors of Conroy's asking price are to be believed. There is a good chance Hanifin will likely test the UFA waters to see what his options are around the league before re-signing with anyone.

Both players would be a risk to acquire given their contract status, but I like the upside and cost on Kylington, not so much on Hanifin.

*note* - I am not saying Kylington would be the beter player if acquired, just that the value and risk vs reward are much better.

Kudos for putting a better arguement together that most other people.

I still disagree with you.

Kylington is just another project at this point. We really don't have space for another guy like that IMO. We have three guys who either already are - or soon project to be - bona fide top four players. After that we have a bunch of question marks, bottom pairing guys, depth guys, etc. Kylington would just add to that clutter.

We should either be looking to add a bona fide top four guy like Hanifin - or not looking to add anyone at all.

I disagree with your assessment of Hanifin.

Good top four players who play important minutes tend to play with other good players. You can't use it as an arguement against him. How do you also explain his strong play in Carolina? At some point you have to realise that Hanifin is contributing to the success of the pairing - as opposed to being carried which is what you're suggesting. We have seen ourselves many times over recent years, what a sub par player looks like when asked to play important minutes. There's nowhere to hide. It isn't the case with Hanifin.

I don't know what the acquisition cost would be - but i expect it's something I'd personally be comfortable with. Adams has more assets than he knows what to do with. That doesn't mean he needs to burn them - but it means he can afford to make a move like this if they see Hanifin as a fit.

Contract will be the only concern. If he's expecting #1 type money then clearly it is a non starter. But i don't expect him to demand that assuming that we fulfil his criteria (US team, coach he's familiar with, young team on the rise) i think he'd be willing to resign long term at an AAV in that 6-7m range which fits with the rest of this team's timeline.

It seems to me that both of these players are not very suitable for us. They are not too great in defense, more prone to offense, both are left-handed.

At this point - a LHS acquisition makes more sense than RHS. Obviously assuming Dahlin plays his off side:

L: Samielsson, Power, Stillman
R: Dahlin, Clifton, Johnson, Jokiharju

 

[Irie]

Kudos for putting a better arguement together that most other people.

I still disagree with you.

Kylington is just another project at this point. We really don't have space for another guy like that IMO. We have three guys who either already are - or soon project to be - bona fide top four players. After that we have a bunch of question marks, bottom pairing guys, depth guys, etc. Kylington would just add to that clutter.

We should either be looking to add a bona fide top four guy like Hanifin - or not looking to add anyone at all.

I disagree with your assessment of Hanifin.

Good top four players who play important minutes tend to play with other good players. You can't use it as an arguement against him. How do you also explain his strong play in Carolina? At some point you have to realise that Hanifin is contributing to the success of the pairing - as opposed to being carried which is what you're suggesting. We have seen ourselves many times over recent years, what a sub par player looks like when asked to play important minutes. There's nowhere to hide. It isn't the case with Hanifin.

I don't know what the acquisition cost would be - but i expect it's something I'd personally be comfortable with. Adams has more assets than he knows what to do with. That doesn't mean he needs to burn them - but it means he can afford to make a move like this if they see Hanifin as a fit.

Contract will be the only concern. If he's expecting #1 type money then clearly it is a non starter. But i don't expect him to demand that assuming that we fulfil his criteria (US team, coach he's familiar with, young team on the rise) i think he'd be willing to resign long term at an AAV in that 6-7m range which fits with the rest of this team's timeline.

I think if you are lumping Kylington in with Joker and Stillman, you probably need to go back and watch more Kylington. He really is not a risk to be a reclaimation project. He's a good two way defender that can play in the top four with the right partner.

I would not be the slightest bit surprised if a Kylington/Dahlin pairing was more effective with better chemistry than a Hanifin/Dahlin pairing. I do not like either player as Power's partner, to be honest, but for what the team would have to give up to acquire Hanifin, and the extremely likely chance Hanifin walks in a year (imo), I think he is a very bad target. If Adam's somehow got hanifin to extend, I do not even want to think about what that contract would look like.

Kylington would be my Stillman replacement. He is a smart defender, a glue-guy that makes his pairing work, no matter who he is playing with. He is not the top four solution, no, and Sutter did not use him on the PK, so his ability in that role is uncertain, but he's a nice upgrade, and he can play up the lineup if there are injuries. He's better than anything they currently have in the 5 spot down through their depth, and if available the cost shouldn't be crazy.

Hanifin has always played with good defensive partners, and he has always left fans wanting. He was sheltered in Carolina and still played with good players. He's always been serviceable, but he's never been a guy I would want to throw a big contract at, When he leaves Calgary, I think people are going to see that his success has been more a product of partners and the systems he plays in vs him being a truly special player - if you are paying him 6M+ a year, you are going to regret it (this is my opinion and I have no problem going on the record here saying so). And this is all without the high probability of him walking in a year if acquired. It's way too risky imo.