I was saying that if you limit the discussion to players who break out, you’re missing half the equation. The players that never break out, the players that take a long time to break out, and the players that break out but don’t hit the impact the team needed them to.
These discussion don’t give enough credence, for my taste, to how many seasons you’re waiting for prospect x to come online and the opportunities you miss waiting. And then you’ve got guys like Thompson and Dahlin that emerge over time but then you’ve got Zadina’s or Nylanders that never emerge.
I want to ask the question when is Savoie or Benson putting up over 60 points? When is Quinn and Pererka doing that? 2025 season? 2026 season? Skinner is probably gone by then, Tuch is 30 and up for a new contract. You need all these prospects to develop just to keep up with the attrition in the top 6 from how long it will take them to hit their nhl ceiling. Are we planning on just sitting tight and waiting because 4 years from now we might have traded tage thompson?
Mostly my point is that everyone says oh this guy will develop. But seldom if ever do they talk about how long it will take, how likely it is, or that developed player can also have personality issues. All our 1st rounders are guaranteed locks to develop and instantly produce when they hit the lineup. There’s minimal if any discussion about how long it takes a 20yr old to go from the c to the a the n and then go from 15/30 guy to a 25/50 to a first line player. Peterka is at the top of the list for me. People seem to expect that he’s gonna be a monster this year. I didn’t see on the verge of breaking out, Quinn was closer to verge of breaking out but he’s obviously injured long term now. So we still don’t have a second line and I think the poor production from Quinn and peterka gets completely glossed over in the context of this team making the playoffs. People want to bitch about KO, girgs, and jost but they also want Quinn, peterka, Savoie, and Kulich in the lineup. And you can have all these kids if you have a solid core of vets to put them around. But for people thinking that Savoie, Peterka, Kulich, and Benson will be putting up 70 points by next season… I think we’d be lucky to see anyone in that group hit 65 by 2025. So now you’re looking at 2026, skinners looking at retirement and tuch is looking at massive new deal that takes him into his mid 30s and you’ve yet to seriously take a shot at the cup. So spend 1 of the kids and couple high to mid draft picks and go find another 20 minute defenseman to play with power, go get a rocket fast winger or a monster power forward, or go get a 50 game netminder and start taking shots.
Thank you for taking the time to explain that and clarify your position.
Your position is not wrong, and I agree with most of your premises fundamentally.
I especially agree that there is way too much faith put in all of the prospects hitting their ceilings around here, and there is a very unrealistic belief that the kids (Kulich, Savoie, Benson) are ready for the NHLs physical game, and the team can win with them in the lineup now.
Where I feel that we disagree, is not in the need for certain players for this team to take the next step and to really compete, but in the availability of acquiring those players. Everyone has a different idea on who will sign in Buffalo. If we look at the past several years, the majority of impact players that were available were guys with contract uncertainty. I strongly believe that Adams is uncertain about his ability to convince a Timo Meier to resign long-term with the team without having to grossly overpay and screw up the team payroll structure he has been working hard to build.
The concern is legitimate if you are trading a huge package for a player who controls his own destiny via arbitration to make it to UFA status in a year. For a team like Buffalo, who falls into the unfortunate small market conundrum and has a historic issue with re-signing recently acquired soon to be UFAs to fair market extensions, I feel it is important to keep an open mind about the potential loss of those types of players if traded for -which makes those moves big gambles.
If the team is close to contending, then a trade like that has the potential to put you over the top before the player can hit UFA, so it is more palatable. But when the team is still a couple years away from contending, the risk is probably too high. (With a coaching staff that publicly states that they have not yet had the time to implement their defensive system, I feel strongly that the team is at least two years away from hitting their window, so I do not believe an addition or two is going to launch them into contending status, especially given how young most of the team currently is).
Lastly, I feel like Adams goals and our goals as fans are not entirely in sync. We want playoff games sooner rather than later, and a Stanley Cup win in the next 4-5 years. I believe Adams wants to build a team that will be a perennial playoff team for a decade plus. He is less likely to want to move the high-end prospects for instant success because of this philosophy. Personally I am somewhat in the middle of the two philosophies. I am all about holding the kids to develop the best of the lot to integrate into the team, and keep the best pieces of the current core while those replacement kids marinade and get ready to join the club as cheap filler. But once the team is a potential contender, I am all for scorched earth on trading the farm to overpay for the roleplayers that are necessary to win. I just don't like the idea of doing that too soon.
