Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Sabresfansince1980]

Pittsburgh is far from a lock for the playoffs IMO.

I'm not sure why anyone responds to him, he responds to about 10% of anyone that quotes him.

People ignore that Karlsson's admittedly outstanding season occurred while he personally revived the rover position on a totally inept team that had zero chance of making the playoffs. In Pittsburgh it will be the team's point total that matters, not his own. As much as I enjoy his captivating offensive artistry, he is an absolutely brutal defensive player.

And their top guns of Crosby (turns 36 tomorrow), Malkin (37), and Letang (36). all with a history of serious injury, will yield to Father Time at some point. That could very well be this season for one or all. When the decline hits, it's often all at once.

Pittsburgh is not a playoff lock.

They're not even likely. NYI has better odds.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

FWIW, I agree that KA did not go very far to improve the roster, but the goalie options were/are pretty bad both in talent level or in cost/value. Last summer there were better options that fit role, timeline and salary better. Not now. There have been marginal upgrades available for depth FWs but nobody that really moves the needle enough to complain about not getting...not loudly anyway. We have solid prospect options as is. D-corps was the obvious need and moves were made. The only better option out there is Pesce and that seems to be a done deal (he's staying in Carolina).

 

[TehDoak]

In terms of eastern conference improvements

Boston is going to take a significant step back. They still have an elite d and elite goal tending though. The scoring is going to take a big hit. Still a 100+ pt team though

Toronto is probably about at the same level, though they still have to get under the cap.

Tampa still has enough to contend.

Florida....those D injuries will be though. In the hunt for a wild card. Could sneak up on Boston

Ottawa: Improved goaltending, slight downgrade on the forward group.

Detroit: should be better.

In the Atlastic, top 3 are NJ/Carolina/NYR....after that:

Pitt: Retooled bottom 6, added Karlsson, status quo on goalies. Their age makes them seem like an injury bomb waiting to happen. If they stay healthy could contend for a top 3 spot in their division.

NYI: I a full season of Barzal/Horvat 1/2 should keep them well in the playoff hunt.


Columbus is going to make a significant jump this season. Babcock + retooled defense + healthy Werenski = a .500 team at least.

Washington: Still has a talented core. Not sure they are a playoff team though.

Honestly, in the east, I think the only two 'locks' for non playoff teams are Montreal and Philadelphia.

I feel 6 teams are close to locked (Boston/Toronto/Tampa/Carolina/NJ/NYR) but after that there isn't much that separates 7-14

7 teams fighting for 2 playoff spots.. It's gonna be a cluster

Edit: Forgot Buffalo:

Better D, inconsistent goaltending, and a likely regression in scoring from the top 2 lines. upside in the youth on forward.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Good thing there aren’t any repercussions for failure. Looking forward to how people twist Adams complete botching of two straight off seasons as a good thing, actually. I’m sure his fifth offseason is when he will do his job, right? Those goalpost excuses from last year telling me this year was when he would do his job have to move to another year.

What failure?

Finishing with the best point total during the playoff drought, 1 point shy of the 2nd WC spot, and improving by 16 points with the youngest roster in the league isn't failure.

If the team regresses this season, and the cause is continued weak goaltending and/or the defense still doesn't have sufficient depth, then I'll join you in criticizing Adams' performance during this off-season.

Can we wait until that happens before pronouncing it a failure?

 

[TehDoak]

What failure?

Finishing with the best point total during the playoff drought, 1 point shy of the 2nd WC spot, and improving by 16 points with the youngest roster in the league isn't failure.

If the team regresses this season, and the cause is continued weak goaltending and/or the defense still doesn't have sufficient depth, then I'll join you in criticizing Adams' performance during this off-season.

Can we wait until that happens before pronouncing it a failure?

Missing the playoffs 3 straight seasons in a league where 50% of the league makes the playoffs is a failure.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

What failure?

Finishing with the best point total during the playoff drought, 1 point shy of the 2nd WC spot, and improving by 16 points with the youngest roster in the league isn't failure.

If the team regresses this season, and the cause is continued weak goaltending and/or the defense still doesn't have sufficient depth, then I'll join you in criticizing Adams' performance during this off-season.

Can we wait until that happens before pronouncing it a failure?

No. If Jersey went from a bottom 5 finish to a top 5 finish in one season, then clearly Buffalo should have also. They should have signed or traded for every player that Jersey brought in, because that's what good GM's do when you use your powers of hindsight.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

No you can't, you're required to call it a failure and then move the goalposts to support your claim if they over perform.

They make the WC, obviously lack of off-season moves kept them out ofa divisional slot.

They earn a divisional slot, obviously the lack of off-season moves kept them from the President's.

They win Big Shiny, obviously the lack of off-season moves kept them from being a dynasty

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Timing and strength. Tage and Cozens should be able to bring both. Then it should be just a matter of getting enough off-season practice reps with a coach who knows how to take draws.

I think improved PK and d-zone play offer the biggest potential for moving up in the standings that doesn't involve roster moves, but better faceoff results would help, and it's low-hanging fruit just waiting to be plucked.

It’s actually just timing now with stick speed. Before I used to win faceoffs by sticking my skate out and blocking the stick, or turning and blocking them out completely, or lifting their stick and kicking it back, or knocking the puck out of the air, or any other “tricks” I can’t list. It used to be a mind game where you’d try to throw them off by how you held the stick (two glove fronts meant a backhand, one meant they’re going forward). Now they’re all illegal because outsmarting someone is a bad thing

 

[zenthusiast]

hey, they did more than at the trade deadline

I think the changes will be enough to give them a decent shot at playoff qualification but the window to make the necessary changes to really hit the gas is already open

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Missing the playoffs 3 straight seasons in a league where 50% of the league makes the playoffs is a failure.

It's over, Sabre bros. Fire Adams.

 

[OkimLom]

No. If Jersey went from a bottom 5 finish to a top 5 finish in one season, then clearly Buffalo should have also. They should have signed or traded for every player that Jersey brought in, because that's what good GM's do when you use your powers of hindsight.

So Instead of doing that they changed two roster spots, brought back pretty much the same roster, are going to rely on youth in the net, bringing back the same poor defensive coaching staff and now are starting off the year off without one of the better young two-way forwards and offensive weapons. All of this, in the name of internal improvement, something of which other teams around us will also go through as they are just as young as us as well as the improvement of bringing in new bodies to the team that should be upgrades on what they had.

 

[tsujimoto74]

In terms of eastern conference improvements

Boston is going to take a significant step back. They still have an elite d and elite goal tending though. The scoring is going to take a big hit. Still a 100+ pt team though

Toronto is probably about at the same level, though they still have to get under the cap.

Tampa still has enough to contend.

Florida....those D injuries will be though. In the hunt for a wild card. Could sneak up on Boston

Ottawa: Improved goaltending, slight downgrade on the forward group.

Detroit: should be better.

In the Atlastic, top 3 are NJ/Carolina/NYR....after that:

Pitt: Retooled bottom 6, added Karlsson, status quo on goalies. Their age makes them seem like an injury bomb waiting to happen. If they stay healthy could contend for a top 3 spot in their division.

NYI: I a full season of Barzal/Horvat 1/2 should keep them well in the playoff hunt.


Columbus is going to make a significant jump this season. Babcock + retooled defense + healthy Werenski = a .500 team at least.

Washington: Still has a talented core. Not sure they are a playoff team though.

Honestly, in the east, I think the only two 'locks' for non playoff teams are Montreal and Philadelphia.

I feel 6 teams are close to locked (Boston/Toronto/Tampa/Carolina/NJ/NYR) but after that there isn't much that separates 7-14

7 teams fighting for 2 playoff spots.. It's gonna be a cluster

Edit: Forgot Buffalo:

Better D, inconsistent goaltending, and a likely regression in scoring from the top 2 lines. upside in the youth on forward.

Boston could potentially fall off HARD. They overachieved last year to begin with, and they lost their best player and #1C. Also their #2C. Their top 6 centers are gonna be Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha. Even if you think the rest of the roster performs at the same level with those guys taking the place of Bergeron and Krejci, when was the last time a team got 100+ points while being that weak down the middle?

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

So Instead of doing that they changed two roster spots, brought back pretty much the same roster, are going to rely on youth in the net, bringing back the same poor defensive coaching staff and now are starting off the year off without one of the better young two-way forwards and offensive weapons. All of this, in the name of internal improvement, something of which other teams around us will also go through as they are just as young as us as well as the improvement of bringing in new bodies to the team that should be upgrades on what they had.

Well some of you loved to shit all over them doing that last season, and they had a 16 point improvement. Instead of seeing how that internal growth actually worked, you'd rather focus on what they could have done that you believe would have made them a playoff team. Yet other teams added higher end players externally and were no better for it.

As for the defensive coaching. That's Granato's system as much as it's the assistants and players. This isn't the NFL, you don't have offensive and defensive coordinators. Everything runs through Don. Maybe they have guys who focus on the PP and PK but at the end of the day the defensive lapses still fall directly on to Donny.

They haven't even played a game yet and some are already writing the season off as a failure because of what other teams around them did. How did that work out last year for the people praising Ottawa and Detroit? Oh yea, Buffalo was looking down on them in the standings.

 

[Jim Bob]

As a thought exercise - who would want Kane in Buffalo on a 1 year deal at league minimum?

Not I said the fly.

The real thought experiment is for one year, would you rather have PKane or VO?

I'd vote VO.

 

[Duddy]

I think it is amazing that some people still want to argue that not everything is fine. The Sabres are by far the best build team, they`re going to be the only team with internal growth, their unproven goaltending will put up Vezina numbers, the completly new system they will have to play will work from day one, all the prospects are going to be at least top line players if not elite status, no other team improved, everything is awesome.

 

[elchud]

Bringing back the same roster with two additions (Clifton & EJ) is the front office telling the team they have confidence that the roster will continue to improve.

It logically follows, since they only missed the playoffs by 1 point, that they expect the team to make the playoffs.

If we aren't at least in the 9th spot by the end of 2023 it will be a not good situation.

It takes a lot of guts to go with Levi but that aligns with the confidence that they have in him.

We can trust the plan for a bit longer, they certainly performed better last season than I thought they would. We were an average goaltender away from the playoffs. *This remains the big talking point this season as well*. Will we be an average goaltender away from making the playoffs again. I certainly respect the skepticism right now. The franchise has earned it.

 

[OkimLom]

Well some of you loved to shit all over them doing that last season, and they had a 16 point improvement. Instead of seeing how that internal growth actually worked, you'd rather focus on what they could have done that you believe would have made them a playoff team. Yet other teams added higher end players externally and were no better for it.

Yes, I was a fan that wanted for them to push for an opportunity to make/clinch a spot in the playoffs, because they were on the cusp, and a TDL acquisition wasn't going to cripple the organization, especially of the players I was hoping they would've went after (mid-6 Forwards, bottom pairing D) which would've helped build depth, push a guy like Peterka to help improve a 4th line or push a guy out of the lineup that was of AHL talent only for example (See Bryson). Buffalo would've been playing with house money in the playoffs and would've had taken the pressure off of making the playoffs. There was nothing but positive learning experiences to be had last season at a time where you could take a shot.

So let me apologize for being someone that wanted more out of them.

As for the defensive coaching. That's Granato's system as much as it's the assistants and players. This isn't the NFL, you don't have offensive and defensive coordinators. Everything runs through Don. Maybe they have guys who focus on the PP and PK but at the end of the day the defensive lapses still fall directly on to Donny.

Yep, the same defensive pitfalls that have existed for Granato's whole time here. Something needs to change, either the defensive system needs to the change, or Granato needs to find better staff to communicate what adjustments need to be made to implement the system better. Either way, there's enough of bad defensive play, that plagues the whole team, at a level that warrants some sort of change/adjustment, and not one that the team feels comfortable with of sticking with 100%.

They haven't even played a game yet and some are already writing the season off as a failure because of what other teams around them did. How did that work out last year for the people praising Ottawa and Detroit? Oh yea, Buffalo was looking down on them in the standings.

I'm not going to speak for others, but I'm not writing off the season. I'm just not going to look at the offseason and say with certainty that the playoff spot is theirs to lose, and think that internal improvement will be all that's needed to get that spot when other teams are in the same boat as Buffalo and have made efforts to improve their team. Sophomore slumps are still a thing, especially when the coaching staff expects players to take the next step in their overall game.

Not to mention a lot of the roster changes I wanted to see were to roles/players of knowing what you're going to get. I wanted to see an upgrade for the Okposo, Girgensons, Jost, Boosh, spots. We know what they bring, and I wanted to see Buffalo push to improve their spots and role as the vets on the team, for more. Add a little more vet grit to the lineup, add a little more offensive punch. Just something.

We still have areas of this team that are a little worrisome. We still are top heavy with our offensive output. The goaltending is still a question mark regardless how much you want 7 games to influence your opinion on how set we are.

Being critical of the team, doesn't mean you think they suck.

 

[brian_griffin]

This is pretty much where I see him fitting in on the Sabres this season. He's already been up and down the lineup. Even 4th line minutes are a step up from where he was last year.

I think he's given every chance until we get Quinn back. Then as y'all said then we shop him. With a half yr. eaten on this contract he'll be more palatable to someone in need of *just* scoring, and maybe then we don't even need to retain— hopefully at that point we can bring up a young guy, or if we're in serious contention, use that cap space on a higher profile acquisition up front.

But #71 around doesn't bother me. If he can get some of that PP magic and be sheltered 5 on 5, he can still be a valuable contributor on a team with an improved backend (not everyone's in agreement there, I know) and better goaltending.

And I suppose if a kid significantly outplays him in camp— he's used to sitting in the pressbox. So at the very least it also makes it look like a major roster spot is up for grabs at camp.

I don't believe it's true that he's used to sitting. Olofsson sat 7 games total last season: GM #66-67 and 5 games in a row GM #76 thru #80 - for what we assumed was "performance". Sabres had 2 regulation wins, 2 SO wins, 2 regulation losses and 1 SO loss in games VO didn't play, for 9 of 14 possible points, or 0.64% of points. Too small of a sample size, and with (3) of (7) of those games SO decisions, difficult to say whether his absence was "addition by subtraction" for which many of us were clamoring. He had played all 65 games prior to being benched last season, played the entire prior season minus an injury stretch the first 3 weeks of November 2021, and played all of the restructured COVID season.

I'm not arguing, just saying the press-box stint was an anomaly and I doubt he's "used to it".

As good as management has been under GMKA, the goaltending plans are not at all realistic. The Comrie stopgap was based on a guy with less than 30 games of experience. That's a joke. They actually got far than could have been expected from Craig Anderson at 41. UPL goals above expected were atrocious last year. He was worst than Comrie. UPL's AHL stats are middling at best. I know he is 24 but the logic that he can be even a good backup is not a good bet. For sure, Levi looks like the real deal but how many goalies at 21 have started in the NHL?

The Sabre's goalie plan MAY work, but the odds are low, and they have set themselves up in the net for failure — as they have done for too many years during this playoff drought.

If the Sabres don't make the playoffs yet again, they can look squarely in the mirror for why. They added some defensive depth (you still wanted a top 4 guy) but the gap in net is a canyon right now and I say only Levi playing above his head as 21-year-old will save them.

There aren't 32 NHL starters capable of 0.910 save percentage or better (my arbitrary standard, but I believe a fair one). Last season there were 18 goalies with 0.910 or better who played 21 games or more. Four teams (BOS, VGK, NYI, DAL) had a pair of those goalies, and for all intents and purposes Carolina was a fifth team. That factoid may support the idea that team system matters. Regardless, you're looking at less than half the league with "high caliber" goaltending performance so why should an opposing GM trade that away? Comrie was signed, not traded for, and we know Adams tried to the very end to extend Ullmark.

As to your final paragraph, the Sabres team-wise defensive effort and system must improve. At times it seemed they allowed a back-door tap-in goal every game. I just don't think it realistic that NHL GMs trade proven starter goalies and for free-agent signings, not clear veterans (other than the aging Anderson) would choose to sign in BUF before they are a bona-fide playoff team.

"To fear death, gentlemen, is no other than to think oneself wise when one is not, to think one knows what one does not know. No one knows whether death may not be the greatest of all blessings for a man, yet men fear it as if they knew that it is the greatest of evils."

Where have I've heard that before? Shakespeare? Obi Wan Kenobi? Hulk Hogan?

Good thing there aren’t any repercussions for failure. Looking forward to how people twist Adams complete botching of two straight off seasons as a good thing, actually. I’m sure his fifth offseason is when he will do his job, right? Those goalpost excuses from last year telling me this year was when he would do his job have to move to another year.

Are you holding an "It's not you, it's me" letter from Erik Karlsson lamenting he would have waived his NMC to go to BUF besides PIT, but San Jose never called Adams?

Not I said the fly.

The real thought experiment is for one year, would you rather have PKane or VO?

I'd vote VO.

That is an interesting question. I don't have a gut reaction response.

I think it is amazing that some people still want to argue that not everything is fine. The Sabres are by far the best build team, they`re going to be the only team with internal growth, their unproven goaltending will put up Vezina numbers, the completly new system they will have to play will work from day one, all the prospects are going to be at least top line players if not elite status, no other team improved, everything is awesome.

 

[HOOats]

@OkimLom

1. I wanted us to add a middle 6 forward and a bottom pairing D at the deadline too. Which is why I was pleased when that's exactly what we did...

2. Vet grit is exactly what we added this off-season... I may have wanted one more add in this vein in the Jost spot, but it's a minor quibble.

3. Adding offensive punch to a team that scored 300 goals is awfully aspirational (while also wanting a better defensive game, more grit, etc). We were indeed top heavy, but the secondary scoring roles are set to be occupied by kids we're going to need to see improve if we're going to be the top team we envision in the future.

4. Every team is going to have areas that are worrisome. A handful maybe have one area, and they're the powerhouse Cup contenders. We aren't there yet and nothing this off-season would have changed that.

5. Goaltending is a question mark for 20+ teams in the league. Levi has a chance to eventually make us one of the dozen teams in the league with a real #1. It might not be this year and it's fair to disagree with the approach to developing him. But people acting like a GM can snap his fingers and "improve the goaltending" aren't operating in reality imo.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

i guess the Sabres plan for getting into the playoffs involves hoping and praying that others teams get injured a lot? Because on paper, we ain’t making the playoffs - especially now that Pittsburg has improved.

I’m not sure Adams had the opportunity to improve enough to get us into the playoffs, but I think he might be too attached to his own prospects…he has so far been unwilling to trade anyone he’s drafted, which isn’t a good sign imo.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

I'm not going to speak for others, but I'm not writing off the season. I'm just not going to look at the offseason and say with certainty that the playoff spot is theirs to lose, and think that internal improvement will be all that's needed to get that spot when other teams are in the same boat as Buffalo and have made efforts to improve their team. Sophomore slumps are still a thing, especially when the coaching staff expects players to take the next step in their overall game.

Not to mention a lot of the roster changes I wanted to see were to roles/players of knowing what you're going to get. I wanted to see an upgrade for the Okposo, Girgensons, Jost, Boosh, spots. We know what they bring, and I wanted to see Buffalo push to improve their spots and role as the vets on the team, for more. Add a little more vet grit to the lineup, add a little more offensive punch. Just something.

We still have areas of this team that are a little worrisome. We still are top heavy with our offensive output. The goaltending is still a question mark regardless how much you want 7 games to influence your opinion on how set we are.

Being critical of the team, doesn't mean you think they suck.

I'm not saying you can't be critical of the team, or that you or anyone should support every move Adams makes. I don't like some of the things he's done either, but I'm still acknowledging the progress the team has made over the past 2 seasons.

They seem to be leaning into continuity, and the benefits of having minimal roster turnover. There are some benefits to that. Players learn each other tendencies, and will usually gel better the more they play with the same guys. You also have the leadership aspect of that. It's not often you see the captain and one of the "A"s both allowed to walk in the same offseason, especially when they are 2 of the most tenured players on the team.

I agree goaltending is a concern, and personally I did want to see Levi start the season in Rochester, but if they feel he's ready they haven't given me much reason to doubt their judgement yet. That's really what it is for me, trusting that they know what they are doing. Contenders aren't built overnight, take a look at all of the past cup winners. How many of them went from the bottom to the top in a season? Not that it's impossible to do, but it's more something that takes time.

Maybe this was the offseason they needed to make bigger splashes, and maybe it wasn't. For me right now I'm willing to give management the benefit of the doubt. They have made steady improvement each of the past 2 seasons. Not just their record, but their play on the ice. If you don't wish to do that, it's fine but to me they deserve that for now.

There's just a lot of doom and gloom here, and it can be hard to tell who is genuinely just trying to be constructive and who is lambasting Adams simply because it fits the agenda.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I know this comes off as doom posting but the trade today was a disaster for us because realistically there was one potential playoff slot open and it was in all likelihood just locked up baring a catastrophic injury to Crosby or EK. The only other playoff team you can make any kind of case for falling off is Tampa and that's really stretching it.

You think NYI are a cinch?

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

I don't believe it's true that he's used to sitting. Olofsson sat 7 games total last season: GM #66-67 and 5 games in a row GM #76 thru #80 - for what we assumed was "performance". Sabres had 2 regulation wins, 2 SO wins, 2 regulation losses and 1 SO loss in games VO didn't play, for 9 of 14 possible points, or 0.64% of points. Too small of a sample size, and with (3) of (7) of those games SO decisions, difficult to say whether his absence was "addition by subtraction" for which many of us were clamoring. He had played all 65 games prior to being benched last season, played the entire prior season minus an injury stretch the first 3 weeks of November 2021, and played all of the restructured COVID season.

I'm not arguing, just saying the press-box stint was an anomaly and I doubt he's "used to it".


There aren't 32 NHL starters capable of 0.910 save percentage or better (my arbitrary standard, but I believe a fair one). Last season there were 18 goalies with 0.910 or better who played 21 games or more. Four teams (BOS, VGK, NYI, DAL) had a pair of those goalies, and for all intents and purposes Carolina was a fifth team. That factoid may support the idea that team system matters. Regardless, you're looking at less than half the league with "high caliber" goaltending performance so why should an opposing GM trade that away? Comrie was signed, not traded for, and we know Adams tried to the very end to extend Ullmark.

As to your final paragraph, the Sabres team-wise defensive effort and system must improve. At times it seemed they allowed a back-door tap-in goal every game. I just don't think it realistic that NHL GMs trade proven starter goalies and for free-agent signings, not clear veterans (other than the aging Anderson) would choose to sign in BUF before they are a bona-fide playoff team.


Where have I've heard that before? Shakespeare? Obi Wan Kenobi? Hulk Hogan?


Are you holding an "It's not you, it's me" letter from Erik Karlsson lamenting he would have waived his NMC to go to BUF besides PIT, but San Jose never called Adams?


That is an interesting question. I don't have a gut reaction response.

Save % is a pretty basic stat. UPL and Comrie are not really great in high-danger situations. Their expected save % is below average. This free pass that the organization gets for having no goalie depth baffles me. Let's go for 13 years and no playoffs because we won't move any talent, even for a serviceable backup or 1B. Enough with the free pass for management, GMKA gets paid to make moves. He's failed this off-season. He's pretty much all-in on Devon Levi now for this year.

 

[Weltschmerz]

Boston could potentially fall off HARD. They overachieved last year to begin with, and they lost their best player and #1C. Also their #2C. Their top 6 centers are gonna be Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha. Even if you think the rest of the roster performs at the same level with those guys taking the place of Bergeron and Krejci, when was the last time a team got 100+ points while being that weak down the middle?

My best bet is still Tampa imploding, they already looked bad last season against us, wings and sens and got more points than they deserved, were only 6 points ahead of us and were the first team to lose against the leafs in like 20 years.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

As long as every forward we have has another career season like last year we shouldn't regress.