Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Doug Prishpreed]

My best bet is still Tampa imploding, they already looked bad last season against us, wings and sens and got more points than they deserved, were only 6 points ahead of us and were the first team to lose against the leafs in like 20 years.

I can see Tampa winning the division pretty easily. Their bottom 6 took a pretty huge hit but they're still stacked with vet stars who know how to win.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Just my view, but I think it is the wrong approach to look at the East and try to figure out who we need to overtake and who we need to fend off (not that it can’t be a fun off-season diversion). The Sabres goal should simply be to finish with fewer goals against, more wins and more points in the standings. Improve by 5 points in the standings and we are in. By 10 and we are in comfortably. I’m not sure who will fall off, but if we improve it is certain that there will be teams that drop.

More wins on home ice too!

The 8 game losing streak and there record on home ice was detrimental to there playoff hopes last season.

 

[OkimLom]

Just my view, but I think it is the wrong approach to look at the East and try to figure out who we need to overtake and who we need to fend off (not that it can’t be a fun off-season diversion). The Sabres goal should simply be to finish with fewer goals against, more wins and more points in the standings. Improve by 5 points in the standings and we are in. By 10 and we are in comfortably. I’m not sure who will fall off, but if we improve it is certain that there will be teams that drop.

No, you play the opponents, not the point totals. Something like the 2021-2022 season could easily happen. If we went by your idea of what we need to do, we’d still miss the playoffs and if we improved by 10 points we’d barely have made it in. Since 2016-2017, in 82 game seasons, we’d barely make the playoffs twice with a 5 point improvement in the scenario presented here.

The team needs to make sure their EC counterparts get as little amount of points when they play Buffalo. This means they need to learn how to close out games that they are ahead in, learn to win games they are tied late in games, and make sure at most they get 1 point if it goes to shootouts and OTs.

 

[Weltschmerz]

I can see Tampa winning the division pretty easily. Their bottom 6 took a pretty huge hit but they're still stacked with vet stars who know how to win.

Can't see them getting more points than Toronto. They lost so much depht over the last years, their backup is Jonas Johansson.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Can't see them getting more points than Toronto. They lost so much depht over the last years, their backup is Jonas Johansson.

I'd take Tampa's goaltending situation over Toronto's 7 days a week. Toronto has the better forward group, but Tampa has better defense and goaltending -- for me it's a coin flip on who finishes with more points.

 

[Aladyyn]

I want to address the goaltending but you cannot get me to be mad that we didn't facilitate a big trade for a competitor just so we could get Casey DeSmith (I think that's what the outrage is about right now? it's hard to tell when nobody actually specifies what they want Adams to be doing)

 

[MarkusKetterer]

No, you play the opponents, not the point totals. Something like the 2021-2022 season could easily happen. If we went by your idea of what we need to do, we’d still miss the playoffs and if we improved by 10 points we’d barely have made it in. Since 2016-2017, in 82 game seasons, we’d barely make the playoffs twice with a 5 point improvement in the scenario presented here.

The team needs to make sure their EC counterparts get as little amount of points when they play Buffalo. This means they need to learn how to close out games that they are ahead in, learn to win games they are tied late in games, and make sure at most they get 1 point if it goes to shootouts and OTs.

They’ll get a point if it goes to OT or a shootout. They can’t lose it*


*they can if they pull the goalie in OT and lose, other than when a penalty is about to be called

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think this board underestimates the impact that will come from the development of the kids on other teams like Jersey, Ottawa, Detroit, Montreal, Columbus, Carolina, et al.

We aren't the only team who's players improve as they play more games. Even the likes of Lundell and Perbix have development room to grow, so the playoff teams aren't stagnating either.

None of those teams committed to the internal youth development team building process like Buffalo has. The vast majority of the roster is still on the upswing developmentally. That’s the difference.

 

[OkimLom]

They’ll get a point if it goes to OT or a shootout. They can’t lose it*


*they can if they pull the goalie in OT and lose, other than when a penalty is about to be called

Yep, that's why Buffalo needs to make sure their opponent doesn't get 2 points there.

 

[brian_griffin]

The season starts in 2 months. Here are @brian_griffin 's 2024 playoff predictions:

East

"Locks"
Metro CAR - strong depth and coaching.
Metro NJD - strong depth and coaching.

"Tough to outright dismiss"
Metro NYR - great young defense, aging forwards with exception of their "untouchables".
Atlantic BOS - I think they'll struggle at times, somewhere between 90-100 points total, but their D and goal will get them in.
Atlantic FLA - Cap challenges. Can Bob hang on in goal?
Atlantic TB - Cap challenges but they'll game the system yet again. How the heck can Zach Bogosian still have an NHL job?

"Question marks"
Atlantic BUF - I am optimistic.
Atlantic TOR - I don't see how they'll amass 50 wins again, and they'll need more fake LTIR just to start the season
Metro PIT - another year older, and with cap challenges.
Metro NYI - an unlikable coach and team devoid of likable players.

"Building year"
Ottawa - Probably the closest of the "outside looking in" crowd.
Detroit - they'll draw closer, but still no cigar.
Columbus - as young as BUF, but with far, far less hope.
Washington - I just can't see it.
Philadelphia - I see it and it hurts my eyes.
Montreal - Ole'

Summary: I see BUF, TOR, PIT, NYI competing for the final two Wild Card spots.

West:

I wouldn't be surprised if the playoff teams are a repeat of last season.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I think this board underestimates the impact that will come from the development of the kids on other teams like Jersey, Ottawa, Detroit, Montreal, Columbus, Carolina, et al.

We aren't the only team who's players improve as they play more games. Even the likes of Lundell and Perbix have development room to grow, so the playoff teams aren't stagnating either.

You're right, but of those teams only the growth in Ottawa and Columbus matter imo.

Carolina is going to finish 1st or 2nd in their division. Their performance doesn't matter.

Montreal would shock by finishing with 80+ points.

Detroit is largely fueled by older players. Unless Soderbloom Thompsons, which is a possibility. Kasper isn't likely to be an impact player at 19; although I do like him and wish the Sabres drafted him. I would expect Raymond to bounce back this year.

Ottawa has a lot of players in the same age range as Buffalo. They could move mountains.

Columbus is a mix between Ottawa and Detroit. They are lead by older players, but they have more about to crest than Detroit. Any combination of Sillinger, Johnson, Fantilli could pop off. If all three do they'll have a stew going. I think the Defense is about a year away for them. But overall I'm very apprehensive of what the Blue Jackets are building.

None of those teams committed to the internal youth development team building process like Buffalo has. The vast majority of the roster is still on the upswing developmentally. That’s the difference.

I think Ottawa and Columbus are. Concur on the others.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I want to address the goaltending but you cannot get me to be mad that we didn't facilitate a big trade for a competitor just so we could get Casey DeSmith (I think that's what the outrage is about right now? it's hard to tell when nobody actually specifies what they want Adams to be doing)

You can be mad -- just not at management. Me, I'm kind of angry at the circumstances that didn't allow us to improve as much as I would have liked. We have no idea what the options even were for Adams, so I don't waste time pointing fingers.

It's an EXTREMELY difficult league to make any changes at all -- even harder to make ones that improve your team in both the short and long run. It's a frustrating sport/league in that regard, and Adams has no power to change that.

None of those teams committed to the internal youth development team building process like Buffalo has. The vast majority of the roster is still on the upswing developmentally. That’s the difference.

But they also have more established vet players that won't allow them to go on 8 game losing streaks. Buffalo doesn't have that, but will make a difference in the 23/24 season.

You also have to account for the fact that young players take steps back very often, and development isn't linear -- so half the players could take a step back this year, even if they are on a long term curve to be stars. Happens all the time.

 

[brian_griffin]

You're right, but of those teams only the growth in Ottawa and Columbus matter imo.

Carolina is going to finish 1st or 2nd in their division. Their performance doesn't matter.

Montreal would shock by finishing with 80+ points.

Detroit is largely fueled by older players. Unless Soderbloom Thompsons, which is a possibility. Kasper isn't likely to be an impact player at 19; although I do like him and wish the Sabres drafted him. I would expect Raymond to bounce back this year.

Ottawa has a lot of players in the same age range as Buffalo. They could move mountains.

Columbus is a mix between Ottawa and Detroit. They are lead by older players, but they have more about to crest than Detroit. Any combination of Sillinger, Johnson, Fantilli could pop off. If all three do they'll have a stew going. I think the Defense is about a year away for them. But overall I'm very apprehensive of what the Blue Jackets are building.



I think Ottawa and Columbus are. Concur on the others.

Columbus will need a year or two to be at BUF's level, IMO. I think they'll catch WAS or PIT on their declines before they catch BUF on the Sabres rise. Will be interesting to see if/how well Babcock clicks.

 

[Weltschmerz]

I'd take Tampa's goaltending situation over Toronto's 7 days a week. Toronto has the better forward group, but Tampa has better defense and goaltending -- for me it's a coin flip on who finishes with more points.

They allowed 32 more goals than the Leafs last season, only Florida allowed more from the playoff teams in the east.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Yep, that's why Buffalo needs to make sure their opponent doesn't get 2 points there.

Fair enough. Now I get what you meant

 

[OkimLom]

East - Barring injuries

"Locks"
Metro CAR - Probably the best team in the East.
Metro NJD - The current 'Toronto Maple Leaf's where they are going to be a tough out for any team. Young and exciting. Dangerous team.
Atlantic TOR - They will win games with the weapons they have. Winning enough hasn't been their problem for the past 6+ years. It's been what they do at the dance when they are in.
Atlantic TB - too talented not to win enough games to make the playoffs. They were able to get a rare long break from hockey. Should help their stars recoup and recharge.

"Tough to outright dismiss"
Metro NYR - They are good enough to make the playoffs, and I expect them to do so again, but they haven't shown that next level push to be a lock for me.
Atlantic BOS - Always a tough team to play. Their system and structure are tough to look past. The lack of signings in the center depth to make up for the loss of PB is my question mark.
Atlantic FLA - Solid team, I think they will rebound with a solid season again.

"Question marks"
Atlantic BUF - Young exciting team. Either could be this year's New Jersey Devils, or remain to be an almost made it team. If there's a team where health will be the biggest factor, it would be this one.
Metro PIT - Probably my biggest shrug of a team. They will be in games, but I think they, like Washington are going to see themselves fall down standings more often.
Metro NYI - A lot of things need to happen for them to be battling for a spot. They are sort of in the middle of no-man's land.
Metro Columbus - They have some solid pieces. If they hit the ground running with buying into Babcock's way of playing, they have the pieces to capitalize on staying in games, and have the size to wear teams down. Add in skilled players like Johnny and Johnson, and they could be a dark horse to push for a playoff spot.

"Building year"
Atlantic Ottawa - I could see them possibly pushing for a spot, much in the same way Buffalo did last year.
Atlantic Detroit - See Ottawa.
Metro Washington - They are essentially in "Let's get AO to the Record" mode. Doesn't seem winning is on the menu.
Metro Philadelphia - Rebuild mode, lots of core rebuilding probably needs to be done.
Atlantic Montreal - Not sure what they are doing, or what direction they are trying to head in.

Summary: I see BUF, CLB, OTT competing for the final Wild Card spot. I think TOR, BOS, TB, FLA are a tier above Buffalo and CAR, NJD, NYR hold down the 3 spots for the Metro.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

They allowed 32 more goals than the Leafs last season, only Florida allowed more from the playoff teams in the east.

If you use the metrics of last year to judge this year, then it will lead you to a lot of bad predictions. But like I said, it's a coin toss between those two teams so I wouldn't be surprised if TOR ends up with the better record. I just seem to think they're closer than you do.

East - Barring injuries

"Locks"
Metro CAR - Probably the best team in the East.
Metro NJD - The current 'Toronto Maple Leaf's where they are going to be a tough out for any team. Young and exciting. Dangerous team.
Atlantic TOR - They will win games with the weapons they have. Winning enough hasn't been their problem for the past 6+ years. It's been what they do at the dance when they are in.
Atlantic TB - too talented not to win enough games to make the playoffs. They were able to get a rare long break from hockey. Should help their stars recoup and recharge.

"Tough to outright dismiss"
Metro NYR - They are good enough to make the playoffs, and I expect them to do so again, but they haven't shown that next level push to be a lock for me.
Atlantic BOS - Always a tough team to play. Their system and structure are tough to look past. The lack of signings in the center depth to make up for the loss of PB is my question mark.
Atlantic FLA - Solid team, I think they will rebound with a solid season again.

"Question marks"
Atlantic BUF - Young exciting team. Either could be this year's New Jersey Devils, or remain to be an almost made it team. If there's a team where health will be the biggest factor, it would be this one.
Metro PIT - Probably my biggest shrug of a team. They will be in games, but I think they, like Washington are going to see themselves fall down standings more often.
Metro NYI - A lot of things need to happen for them to be battling for a spot. They are sort of in the middle of no-man's land.
Metro Columbus - They have some solid pieces. If they hit the ground running with buying into Babcock's way of playing, they have the pieces to capitalize on staying in games, and have the size to wear teams down. Add in skilled players like Johnny and Johnson, and they could be a dark horse to push for a playoff spot.

"Building year"
Atlantic Ottawa - I could see them possibly pushing for a spot, much in the same way Buffalo did last year.
Atlantic Detroit - See Ottawa.
Metro Washington - They are essentially in "Let's get AO to the Record" mode. Doesn't seem winning is on the menu.
Metro Philadelphia - Rebuild mode, lots of core rebuilding probably needs to be done.
Atlantic Montreal - Not sure what they are doing, or what direction they are trying to head in.

Summary: I see BUF, CLB, OTT competing for the final Wild Card spot. I think TOR, BOS, TB, FLA are a tier above Buffalo and CAR, NJD, NYR hold down the 3 spots for the Metro.

NYR are a lock, and PIT, WAS, DET, and OTT should all move a category up too.

 

[MOGlLNY]

On paper, right now, Idk. I just don't see us making it with this Pittsburgh trade.

 

[Matt Ress]

I just think the Pens are clearly in decline. EK was as much as a surprise as Boston last year and I don't see either repeating. It will be fun for Pens fans. There will be some pretty plays and schooling from time to time but there's very little depth and I don't trust them to defend well. Cute pickup but it doesn't move the needle enough for me.

 

[Chainshot]

I just think the Pens are clearly in decline. EK was as much as a surprise as Boston last year and I don't see either repeating. It will be fun for Pens fans. There will be some pretty plays and schooling from time to time but there's very little depth and I don't trust them to defend well. Cute pickup but it doesn't move the needle enough for me.

I'm curious to see how much quickly moving the puck in transition helps their older legs. I don't have the stat packages to dig into controlled exits and controlled entries for the Pens and specifically for EK, but I expect it is going to make Sid and Geno's lives much, much easier. How that impacts the East will be interesting - some of the teams Buffalo is competing with are going to get pinched by the Pens in head to head too, so it's not just about the Pens improving or failing in a vacuum.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Maybe they could transfer into the west

 

[Diaspora]

Just a reminder: Peter Karmanos is the antichrist of hockey who a new tenth circle of Hell should be created for (along with Governor Convicted Felon and Bettman).

Your nutmeg is hanging out.

 

[TehDoak]

On paper, right now, Idk. I just don't see us making it with this Pittsburgh trade.

Well, a team you are chasing adding the reigning Norris winner will never help.

I think we are going to see less than 10 points separate spots 7-12/13. Injuries will most likely be the differentiator when its that close.

 

[Der Jaeger]

You can be mad -- just not at management. Me, I'm kind of angry at the circumstances that didn't allow us to improve as much as I would have liked. We have no idea what the options even were for Adams, so I don't waste time pointing fingers.

It's an EXTREMELY difficult league to make any changes at all -- even harder to make ones that improve your team in both the short and long run. It's a frustrating sport/league in that regard, and Adams has no power to change that.


But they also have more established vet players that won't allow them to go on 8 game losing streaks. Buffalo doesn't have that, but will make a difference in the 23/24 season.

You also have to account for the fact that young players take steps back very often, and development isn't linear -- so half the players could take a step back this year, even if they are on a long term curve to be stars. Happens all the time.

True, but when you go youth on the scale the Sabres have, you’re going to take lumps. That’s the path Adams took. You’ve got to give those experiences to the kids.

Some kids will have good years and some will not but it’ll more than likely come out ahead with the sheer number of kids.

Those same kids were part of that 8 game losing streak. They were also part of the late season run. Those aren’t lost lessons. Ideally, you want the young kids to be the ones to pull the team out of the losing streak, because they already experienced it. I’d much rather have the kids figure it out than rely on vets.

I ate dinner tonight with a scout for the Bruins. Some of his thoughts:

- Loves Savoie and LOVES Benson. Sabres got two steals

- The way the Sabres are building is the right way

- Envious of the young players the Sabres have. The Bruins are in for a tough spell.

Most of what I wrote about above, he agreed with. It’s a longer road but the better road to take.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

True, but when you go youth on the scale the Sabres have, you’re going to take lumps. That’s the path Adams took. You’ve got to give those experiences to the kids.

Some kids will have good years and some will not but it’ll more than likely come out ahead with the sheer number of kids.

Those same kids were part of that 8 game losing streak. They were also part of the late season run. Those aren’t lost lessons. Ideally, you want the young kids to be the ones to pull the team out of the losing streak, because they already experienced it. I’d much rather have the kids figure it out than rely on vets.

I ate dinner tonight with a scout for the Bruins. Some of his thoughts:

- Loves Savoie and LOVES Benson. Sabres got two steals

- The way the Sabres are building is the right way

- Envious of the young players the Sabres have. The Bruins are in for a tough spell.

Most of what I wrote about above, he agreed with. It’s a longer road but the better road to take.

The Bruins are a model club so I trust him!