Dom L's model is broken in quite a few ways.
Not necessarily a quality starter, just a guy who plays 40 games and shows a stats of 91% SV and above for example. I think it could have been done over the years considering how many goalies have been traded or signed to UFA.
There were 11 guys who played 40 games and had a save percentage of .910 or higher last year.
I mean, in general, to find goalie who would play 40 games for us and show such a percentage, especially now, with improved defense depth and very high-quality defenders. It doesn't have to be the guy who scored 91% or more last season. I also said that immediately after gone Ullmark, and not just last season, now the third year has already begun.
I agree. I think having defensive depth is going to make more of a difference than a lot of people think. Beyond what those guys add to the mix, not having to have fringe or sub level NHL guys in the lineup evens the quality of what we can ice through inevitable injury stretches and should lessen TOI for our top guys which should provide benefits to both individuals and the team.
36 Goalies had a % of .910 or higher last season, 24 of which played more than 10 games, 19 played more than 20, 15 played more than 30, so less than half of the teams in the league had a goalie that put up a .910 and started more than 30 games.
theathletic.com
Because they're only looking at next season, which will be the best seasons left for most of the FAs. I think their ranking is actually pretty good in that regard. I too think that Buffalo will score fewer goals this season. If they were ranking longer term impacts, a lot of those FAs become a negative on the team, so we'd look better.
Which NHL teams have improved the most this offseason? Rating all 32 teams
From most value added to least, rating each team based on whether they have more talent than they did at the start of the offseason.
Also, Dom L has tweaked his stats but I still think they're based on the past 3 years of data, which means there is still Krueger taint and the younger guys are not going to have a track record to drive much in his model, which is the basis of these rankings.
More analytically inclined folks, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong there.
As I said, I'm taking into account the seasons immediately after Ullmark's gone, not just the past. Also, the goalie can be promising or just a change of outfit is working, and in one team he has poor performance, and in the other good. For example Gustavsson, Georgiev, Vanecek improved, Samsonov and I'm sure there are more goalies. I really believe that Gibson will go 91%+ on the other team, all things considered. So and not against his trade.
My initial assessment of this upcoming season in mid-April came to that same conclusion, before draft, free agency, etc. I expect about a 2:1 reduction in GA for every less GF. Score effects will play a role, as will the Sabres improved team play and individual improvements.
RE: Bolded
That one stings a bit. I would've easily given him $2 for the year.
it takes 2 to tango .... other side of the coin
maybe he wasn't interested in playing in Buffalo ?
And why wouldn't he want to play in Buffalo? For example, 2 million against one million, plus Nosek would probably have an easier get 4C's role in Buffalo than in New Jersey. They already have a good 4C in McLeod. We don't have 4C at all.
I don't know ... maybe his friends/family are in NJ ?
