Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Irie]

Jesus Christ. We will come up with any excuse to protect this teams management from any criticism.

My comments were strictly about the reality of Buffalo having less UFA draw power than other markets. If your take away was in anyway about Kevyn Adams, then you are completely missing the point and Kevyn Adams is living rent free in your head.

If it were about Adams, I would say, Adams would be a moron to overpay a guy like Nosek 2M - which would be the overwhelming narative around the league and on the main board if he gave out that contract.

He could buy in WNY what would cost 5x in NY/NJ. The cost of living is dramatically less in WNY regardless of taxes which are roughly equivalent.

But why would you buy instead of renting now if it was just for 9 months and there is a ton of uncertainty in the economy and the real estate market? With costs and fees and the unforeseen maintenance costs, it is not a great time to invest in a property you may keep less than a year. Rent and invest the difference in safer options and you are likely money ahead.

 

[Gras]

Is there really that much difference in the cost of rent vs mortgage payment

 

[Beerz]

My comments were strictly about the reality of Buffalo having less UFA draw power than other markets. If your take away was in anyway about Kevyn Adams, then you are completely missing the point and Kevyn Adams is living rent free in your head.

If it were about Adams, I would say, Adams would be a moron to overpay a guy like Nosek 2M - which would be the overwhelming narative around the league and on the main board if he gave out that contract.


But why would you buy instead of renting now if it was just for 9 months and there is a ton of uncertainty in the economy and the real estate market? With costs and fees and the unforeseen maintenance costs, it is not a great time to invest in a property you may keep less than a year. Rent and invest the difference in safer options and you are likely money ahead.

Have a competitive team and the draw power dilemma would be pretty much wiped out. Fear of blizzards is comical

 

[brian_griffin]

RE: Bolded

Best case scenario, EJ and Clifton are equal to where Joki was at the beginning of camp last offseason. In reality, I see them where Joki and Bryson were at the end of the year.

Johnson has very much looked like the wrong side of 30 player he is. He's lost quite a few steps in recent years. He's cashed in playing on an offensive force. He's a decent vet for a role, and he might be able to give you a good game 1 in 8 games, which may give Granato some flexibility to keep guys fresh, gameplan his roster to the opponent.

Clifton is the big one I'm worried about. I like his attitude towards games, and of course I like seeing him use his checking to take guys out of plays. But he had the safety net of a great structure of a team defense to help cover up some holes he left behind when he went to battle someone out of position. Unless the team defense does a 180 immediately to how they play in their own zone, I fear what will follow with how he plays the game. His decision making is pretty bad. I do like his transition game, so that should help out of he's able to keep his errors to a minimum.

I wouldn't say they are unquestionably better than what we had recently outside Power, Dahlin, and Samuelsson, but they do have a chance to be better. It's a slightly improvement than the Middle Pair AHL defenseman we had on the roster last year, I still think you're looking at a NHL 6-8th defenseman in both Clifton and EJ.

You may be more right than wrong on Eric Johnson's 2023-24 performance / consistency. However, if Eric Johnson, regardless of whether he is paired with Owen Power none, some, or all of the time, can serve as an in-game, on-ice, and off-ice coach for Owen Power and elevate Power's performance and consistency by 10-15%, it will likely, IMO, more than make up for any continued degradation in Eric Johnson's play.

Not arguing, but whether Clifton and E. Johnson are NHL #6-#8 defensemen is immaterial to how they slot in BUF.

Before this offseason (in rough order):
Dahlin
Samuelsson
Power
Lyubushkin
Joker
Stillman
(Clague)
Bryson

Add in E. Johnson and Clifton.
Assuming Clague is in Rochester, that's 9 d-men and I think Bryson is clearly lowest on that list of potential NHL'ers

Do I think BUF is better in '23-24 with less than 59 games of Bryson and 33 games of Kale Clague (which they indeed played in '22-23)?
Yes, I do.
Even if it's half as many games they play in Buffalo vs. '22-23, that's a benefit to the Sabres, and that's not a knock on Bryson (who has clear limitations) nor Clague (whom I grew to like more as the season progressed).
We'll have to wait to see whether "more" E. Johnson and Clifton is better in '23-24 than "less" Bryson and Clague (or whomever you wish to insert as the displaced d-men - I admit someone may be still be traded), but for now, the logic behind the plan makes sense to me, and it doesn't depend on where the Sabres newbies would slot on other NHL team's blueliner depth.

You're splitting hairs over who plays where, instead of the bigger issue that KA will only go with 13 FWs.

I have no issue with that, given both the number of ROC forwards and the proximity of BUF to ROC for a substantial fraction of the AHL/NHL regular season home overlap (haven't looked at the schedules, but probably 20-25 games). I'd rather carry 3 goalies to avoid a waiver pluck by another team when there are so many waiver-exempt ROC forwards who have a legit chance at a future in BUF.

<snipped logical post about potential homer bias defending Buffalo/WNY>

I know posting this on this board will go over like a fart in church, but...I can take it.

Done that often enough to know how to disguise it. (And therefore I can also take it.)
I was once more offended seeing a full two hands worth of fingernail clippings left in a pew.

 

[Irie]

Have a competitive team and the draw power dilemma would be pretty much wiped out. Fear of blizzards is comical

If you think there is no chance a 25 year old Czech woman in a foreign country with young children won't consider weather as a factor when making a living decision for a single year, knowing she will be alone half the time.... I don't know what to say. You live in a different world than I do.

Until Buffalo has the cup contender draw, weather will be part of the conversation. Currently, the Sabres do not have the cup contender draw, so the weather discussion is far from "comical".

Is there really that much difference in the cost of rent vs mortgage payment

Depends.

Increased Equity minus depreciation minus buying and selling costs minus maintenance upkeep expenses minus taxes.... Buying in an expensive booming market could actually be a great investment, even if it is that short-termed. But in today's market? Risks are high, and you have the opportunity cost of what the money could be doing elsewhere if you rented instead of purchasing.

All things being equal, renting in WNY vs a bigger city would definitely save money, but the money saved via living expenses when weighed against NHL salaries or taxes is probably mostly noise to the players more than selling points.

 

[BFLO]

I don’t think Adams has any interest in signing players where he’d have to double the salary compared to other offers. Not saying that’s what happened here at all

But doubling the salary compared to other offers to get the player to sign here is Adams specialty? It’s the thing Adams is most interested in doing.

Okposo $2.5
Girgs $2.5
Jost $2
Johnson $3.25
Bryson $1.85
Lybushkin $2.75


Edit:

My comments were strictly about the reality of Buffalo having less UFA draw power than other markets. If your take away was in anyway about Kevyn Adams, then you are completely missing the point and Kevyn Adams is living rent free in your head.

If it were about Adams, I would say, Adams would be a moron to overpay a guy like Nosek 2M - which would be the overwhelming narative around the league and on the main board if he gave out that contract.

The narrative is already about how he overpaid all of the players above. At least Nosek would have clearly filled that "4c who can win faceoffs and PK" void that we had last season and still have now.

 

[Dirty Dog]

But doubling the salary compared to other offers to get the player to sign here is Adams specialty? It’s the thing Adams is most interested in doing.

Okposo $2.5
Girgs $2.5
Jost $2
Johnson $3.25
Bryson $1.85
Lybushkin $2.75


Edit:

The narrative is already about how he overpaid all of the players above. At least Nosek would have clearly filled that "4c who can win faceoffs and PK" void that we had last season and still have now.

Your narrative. Doesn’t make it true

 

[Gras]

If you think there is no chance a 25 year old Czech woman in a foreign country with young children won't consider weather as a factor when making a living decision for a single year, knowing she will be alone half the time.... I don't know what to say. You live in a different world than I do.

Until Buffalo has the cup contender draw, weather will be part of the conversation. Currently, the Sabres do not have the cup contender draw, so the weather discussion is far from "comical".



Depends.

Increased Equity minus depreciation minus buying and selling costs minus maintenance upkeep expenses minus taxes.... Buying in an expensive booming market could actually be a great investment, even if it is that short-termed. But in today's market? Risks are high, and you have the opportunity cost of what the money could be doing elsewhere if you rented instead of purchasing.

All things being equal, renting in WNY vs a bigger city would definitely save money, but the money saved via living expenses when weighed against NHL salaries or taxes is probably mostly noise to the players more than selling points.

I mean they may be spending the same amount of $$ on rent as the would on a mortgage, I mean out here youre looking at $2k for a 2 bed Apt which would get you like a 300k house. So he may not even save any $ on a month 2 month basis, just has the investment risk of the property should they choose to purchase.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

But doubling the salary compared to other offers to get the player to sign here is Adams specialty? It’s the thing Adams is most interested in doing.

Okposo $2.5
Girgs $2.5
Jost $2
Johnson $3.25
Bryson $1.85
Lybushkin $2.75


Edit:

The narrative is already about how he overpaid all of the players above. At least Nosek would have clearly filled that "4c who can win faceoffs and PK" void that we had last season and still have now.

Your assumption is that the Sabres are overpaying on those contracts. They might be. They might not be. Other than the Bryson contract the Sabres might be paying what was offered by other teams.

But whatever. It’s more fun to shit on Adams and claim he overpays, because he’s not an “established” GM and is a clueless Yes Massa.

 

[Fezzy126]

Which NHL teams have improved the most this offseason? Rating all 32 teams

From most value added to least, rating each team based on whether they have more talent than they did at the start of the offseason.

theathletic.com

Also, Dom L has tweaked his stats but I still think they're based on the past 3 years of data, which means there is still Krueger taint and the younger guys are not going to have a track record to drive much in his model, which is the basis of these rankings.

More analytically inclined folks, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong there.

I have the same takeaway that I do every year after reading a Dom article:

"Erik Johnson offers veteran experience in a third-pair role, but on the ice, he doesn’t bring much of an upgrade to what was already there."
This statement proves that he didn't watch a single minute of the Sabres defensemen playing hockey last year.

"Connor Clifton has potential as a puck-mover, though he’s not exactly a bona fide top-four defenseman either."
Connor Clifton is a puck mover? For f***s sakes man, at least put a little effort into your articles.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I have the same takeaway that I do every year after ready a Dom article:

"Erik Johnson offers veteran experience in a third-pair role, but on the ice, he doesn’t bring much of an upgrade to what was already there."
This statement proves that he didn't watch a single minute of the Sabres defensemen playing hockey last year.

"Connor Clifton has potential as a puck-mover, though he’s not exactly a bona fide top-four defenseman either."
Connor Clifton is a puck mover? For f***s sakes man, at least put a little effort into your articles.

I’m pretty sure HFSabres as a collective could write better articles about the team

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

If you think there is no chance a 25 year old Czech woman in a foreign country with young children won't consider weather as a factor when making a living decision for a single year, knowing she will be alone half the time.... I don't know what to say. You live in a different world than I do.

Until Buffalo has the cup contender draw, weather will be part of the conversation. Currently, the Sabres do not have the cup contender draw, so the weather discussion is far from "comical".



Depends.

Increased Equity minus depreciation minus buying and selling costs minus maintenance upkeep expenses minus taxes.... Buying in an expensive booming market could actually be a great investment, even if it is that short-termed. But in today's market? Risks are high, and you have the opportunity cost of what the money could be doing elsewhere if you rented instead of purchasing.

All things being equal, renting in WNY vs a bigger city would definitely save money, but the money saved via living expenses when weighed against NHL salaries or taxes is probably mostly noise to the players more than selling points.

I’m so hoping you tell us more about what it’s like to be a Czech woman

 

[Irie]

I’m so hoping you tell us more about what it’s like to be a Czech woman

Ask you shall receive

https://www.moviesonline.ca/tomas-nosek-wife-who-is-eliska-nosek-and-what-does-she-do/

 

[Beerz]

If you think there is no chance a 25 year old Czech woman in a foreign country with young children won't consider weather as a factor when making a living decision for a single year, knowing she will be alone half the time.... I don't know what to say. You live in a different world than I do.

Until Buffalo has the cup contender draw, weather will be part of the conversation. Currently, the Sabres do not have the cup contender draw, so the weather discussion is far from "comical".



Depends.

Increased Equity minus depreciation minus buying and selling costs minus maintenance upkeep expenses minus taxes.... Buying in an expensive booming market could actually be a great investment, even if it is that short-termed. But in today's market? Risks are high, and you have the opportunity cost of what the money could be doing elsewhere if you rented instead of purchasing.

All things being equal, renting in WNY vs a bigger city would definitely save money, but the money saved via living expenses when weighed against NHL salaries or taxes is probably mostly noise to the players more than selling points.

I heard Finnish women with young children refuse to go to LA because of earthquakes.

Swedish women hate Carolina because of Hurricanes

And Dornish women won't let their husbands sign in Chicago because of gun violence

 

[Dubi Doo]

I heard Finnish women with young children refuse to go to LA because of earthquakes.

Swedish women hate Carolina because of Hurricanes

And Dornish women won't let their husbands sign in Chicago because of gun violence

Breathe for a minute, my man. It's not a good look to be taking such a mundane subject and treating it like we're debating Roe v Wade being overturned, especially when the poster you're responding to isn't nearly as aggressive as you.

 

[Beerz]

Breathe for a minute, my man. It's not a good look to be taking such a mundane subject and treating it like we're debating Roe v Wade being overturned, especially when the poster you're responding to isn't nearly as aggressive as you.

What exactly do you see that makes you think I'm upset? . I thought I was espousing more sarcasm than anger

 

[Dirty Dog]

I heard Finnish women with young children refuse to go to LA because of earthquakes.

Swedish women hate Carolina because of Hurricanes

And Dornish women won't let their husbands sign in Chicago because of gun violence

New Jersey women think the farm life is tacky

 

[Jacob582]

New Jersey women think the farm life is tacky

How can they? They are from the Garden State.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Jesus Christ. We will come up with any excuse to protect this teams management from any criticism.

What exactly do you see that makes you think I'm upset? . I thought I was espousing more sarcasm than anger

This post coupled with the others made it seem like your were ticked over something mundane, so I must've missed the light hearted sarcastic tone of your previous post. My apologies if I took your tone the wrong way.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Let’s check in on Adams big summer. The one I was promised he would finally make the necessary moves after doing nothing last year

Which NHL teams have improved the most this offseason? Rating all 32 teams

From most value added to least, rating each team based on whether they have more talent than they did at the start of the offseason.

theathletic.com

Anyone want to make me a promise about next year?

Ah, an article that also lists the Wings as one of the most improved, just like they did last year.... how'd that work out?

Oh and the Islanders are the 6th most improved... by adding no one and removing 2 players who were not nearly as awful as Dom makes them out to be.

Sorry but an article by Dom isn't worth the time it takes to read. Didn't he also predict a bottom 5 finish for Buffalo last season?

By the way, who promised you big moves? This horse has long been dead and yet it gets kicked day after day after day after day.

 

[Jim Bob]

Ah, an article that also lists the Wings as one of the most improved, just like they did last year.... how'd that work out?

Oh and the Islanders are the 6th most improved... by adding no one and removing 2 players who were not nearly as awful as Dom makes them out to be.

Sorry but an article by Dom isn't worth the time it takes to read. Didn't he also predict a bottom 5 finish for Buffalo last season?

By the way, who promised you big moves? This horse has long been dead and yet it gets kicked day after day after day after day.

The Sabres have outproduced most models the past two seasons and it is driven by the team performing much better under Granato than Krueger.

A lot of these models seem to be lagging indicators as opposed to leading indicators.

 

[brian_griffin]

New Jersey women think the farm life is tacky

How can they? They are from the Garden State.

Granted, the Gabor sisters were Hungarian, not Czech.

 

[joshjull]

RE: Bolded

Best case scenario, EJ and Clifton are equal to where Joki was at the beginning of camp last offseason. In reality, I see them where Joki and Bryson were at the end of the year.

Johnson has very much looked like the wrong side of 30 player he is. He's lost quite a few steps in recent years. He's cashed in playing on an offensive force. He's a decent vet for a role, and he might be able to give you a good game 1 in 8 games, which may give Granato some flexibility to keep guys fresh, gameplan his roster to the opponent.

Clifton is the big one I'm worried about. I like his attitude towards games, and of course I like seeing him use his checking to take guys out of plays. But he had the safety net of a great structure of a team defense to help cover up some holes he left behind when he went to battle someone out of position. Unless the team defense does a 180 immediately to how they play in their own zone, I fear what will follow with how he plays the game. His decision making is pretty bad. I do like his transition game, so that should help out of he's able to keep his errors to a minimum.

I wouldn't say they are unquestionably better than what we had recently outside Power, Dahlin, and Samuelsson, but they do have a chance to be better. It's a slightly improvement than the Middle Pair AHL defenseman we had on the roster last year, I still think you're looking at a NHL 6-8th defenseman in both Clifton and EJ.

At the end of the season Joker was playing 20+ mins a night 5v5 and Bryson was normally a healthy scratch. Not sure how that should be taken with Clifton/E.Johnson.

Joker’s 5v5 minutes (18:15 atoi for year) were due in large part to how bad the rest of the defense was and what little faith the coaching staff had in them. 5v5 atoi for the returning depth; Bryson was getting 13mins, Boosh 12:43, and Stillman 11:25.

At 5v5, you’d like to have a decent amount of guys the coaches trust with 14mins or so (preferably 15mins or so) on the 3rd pair or as depth. The more guys on the roster or available depth the coaches trust, the less the top guys have to play. It also helps sustain better ice distribution when injuries hit.

It’s a good start to come into the season with Clifton, Joker, E.Johnson and Clague**. It reduces the ask of any one player to carry the load.

**The only depth guy we had who fit what Iw as talking about this past season was Clague. His 5v5 atoi was 14:40mins and was used mostly in a specific usage niche; very offensive deployments with Power (OZS% 70%) and some with Dahlin (OZS% 63%) and ahd mixed results.

 

[Beerz]

This post coupled with the others made it seem like your were ticked over something mundane, so I must've missed the light hearted sarcastic tone of your previous post. My apologies if I took your tone the wrong way.

Meh.. I will give you that one

 

[BFLO]

Your narrative. Doesn’t make it true

Your assumption is that the Sabres are overpaying on those contracts. They might be. They might not be. Other than the Bryson contract the Sabres might be paying what was offered by other teams.

But whatever. It’s more fun to shit on Adams and claim he overpays, because he’s not an “established” GM and is a clueless Yes Massa.

My narrative? My assumption? Go read the trade board threads from when we signed these players to their contracts.

The overwhelming consensus is that we overpaid.