Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[TehDoak]

I always find people defending WNY based on cost of living to be kind of missing the point. You understand that the cost of living is low because not many people want to live there, right? If I were offered a job in NYC, I would consider it. If I were offered a job in Buffalo, I would not. Buffalo's housing costs would never be a consideration, because the house would be in Buffalo, where I don't want to live.

Buffalo is one of the smallest markets in the league, which means, by definition, there's less going on than in other, bigger, cities. There are obviously exceptions, but most NHL players see that as a drawback.

And when it comes to NHL players, it's not the weather - Toronto and Chicago have similar weather and have no trouble drawing in UFAs. And compared with other US markets, it's not the taxes - the NYC teams have the same rate, and CA's are even higher, yet we don't see the Rangers, Sharks, and Kings on every player's no-trade list.

Whether you think it's fair or not, Buffalo is not considered a desirable place to live for most people. It's a small rust-belt city whose population has been declining for decades. I grew up in WNY, but at this point my dad and all my grandparents have passed and my mom retired to Virginia Beach, so I honestly can't think of any reason I'd ever go back. For people who don't have roots in the region...the phrase "Let's move to Buffalo" will not elicit a positive response very often.

I know posting this on this board will go over like a fart in church, but...I can take it.

You aren't wrong on any point.

It IS unknown if Nosek would have taken more and signed in Buffalo. However, as a 30 year old with career earnings of 8M (probably a take home of 3M or less after taxes and agent fees), he likely doesn't have 'retirement' money banked away. This isn't some superstar with 30M in the bank who can afford to eschew cash in favor of a favorable living situation.

The likely answer is an extra million a year would have considerably value to a player of his ilk.

The issue isn't that Nosek 'wouldn't have signed here', the issue is there is every indication that Adams didn't try despite that fact that Nosek checks several boxes that our team needs. And that is the bigger issue here. Running back the same forward group that has such obvious and fixable problems is the Adams special at this point. He did it last year, and he's doing it again this summer.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Meh.. I will give you that one

Honestly, an off post or two isn't a big deal at all. I just completely misread the conversation when I woke up this morning. I should probably wait a few hours before posting, haha.

Also, to stay on topic, add me to the list that believes Adams just didn't want to overpay for a 4C. He probably views Jost as a solid complimentary piece to the 4th line, and an area they can improve on if needed as the season progresses whether via trade or one of the youngsters coming up and getting that young C treatment between Girgs and Okoposo that Granato has shown to do in the past.

Impossible to say for sure, though, which is why I haven't commented much on it.

 

[TageGod]

My narrative? My assumption? Go read the trade board threads from when we signed these players to their contracts.

The overwhelming consensus is that we overpaid.

Over paying on a 1 year deal with cap space is not something that even matters. Toss an extra 500k/1m to a player so they choose you over another team for sure.

 

[Dingo44]

Over paying on a 1 year deal with cap space is not something that even matters. Toss an extra 500k/1m to a player so they choose you over another team for sure.

That goes against everything Adams has been saying since his end-of-year press conference two years ago. They want players who WANT to be Buffalo Sabres - not guys who will reluctantly sign with us instead because we overpaid the market rate.

 

[Zman5778]

The issue isn't that Nosek 'wouldn't have signed here', the issue is there is every indication that Adams didn't try despite that fact that Nosek checks several boxes that our team needs. And that is the bigger issue here.

How do we know that? Adams works in media silence. There was ZERO indication we were in on Clifton.....and we signed him. There was ZERO indication that we were in on Johnson....and we signed him. There was ZERO indication we were in on Greenway.....and we traded for him. Same with Stillman. Same with Boosh last offseason.

Hell, Adams flat-out mentioned in his presser that we were definitively in on a forward or two and got close to one......and the identity of that player STILL hasn't leaked.

 

[Djp]

The bottle neck will be the AHL -> NHL pipeline. In a few years, barring some big changes at the NHL level, we're going to have 6+ 1st/2nd year pros in Rochester. That's....alot. Only so much quality TOI to go around. There is such a thing as too many prospects....no idea what the hard number is, but with 20 drafted in the last 3 years (and only 1 out of the system so far in Bloom), the pipeline is gonna need a plunger.

I don’t see a bottleneck coming. You are assuming every play makes nhl. That isn’t reality.

That one stings a bit. I would've easily given him $2 for the year.

I’d rather use the two dollars on power ball

I always find people defending WNY based on cost of living to be kind of missing the point. You understand that the cost of living is low because not many people want to live there, right? If I were offered a job in NYC, I would consider it. If I were offered a job in Buffalo, I would not. Buffalo's housing costs would never be a consideration, because the house would be in Buffalo, where I don't want to live.

I grew up and went to college in Buffalo area. After college I’ve lived outside of westetn ny.

you couldn’t pay me enough to live in Manhattan

you are oversimplifying it

Buffalo is one of the smallest markets in the league, which means, by definition, there's less going on than in other, bigger, cities. There are obviously exceptions, but most NHL players see that as a drawback.

buffalo pop count excludes the Canadian population snd it has closer tv markets.

DC reaches out 75+ miles as does the Bay Area, Philadelphia, dc, and others. Buffalo is blocked by other tv matrkets with 75 miles snd the border.

it’s a top 10 us market npby radial stistsnce and it’s media coverage range including just about all southern Ontario.

And when it comes to NHL players, it's not the weather - Toronto and Chicago have similar weather and have no trouble drawing in UFAs. And compared with other US markets, it's not the taxes - the NYC teams have the same rate, and CA's are even higher, yet we don't see the Rangers, Sharks, and Kings on every player's no-trade list.

they are big cities with more things. There are many who don’t care for big cities. Many thing buffalo is a suburb of New York City not realizing it’s sn 8+ drive

Whether you think it's fair or not, Buffalo is not considered a desirable place to live for most people. It's a small rust-belt city whose population has been declining for decades. I grew up in WNY, but at this point my dad and all my grandparents have passed and my mom retired to Virginia Beach, so I honestly can't think of any reason I'd ever go back. For people who don't have roots in the region...the phrase "Let's move to Buffalo" will not elicit a positive response very often.

it’s about stereotypes and fantasy vs reality. If Sabres were a cup fav players would come. See how the Bills are in the nfl

the population decline occurred during the baby boom time when the steel plants shut down.

whatsctrue all over America is that the small towns are dying.

I know posting this on this board will go over like a fart in church, but...I can take it.

sssuuurrreeeeeeee

people talk about the taxes yet you can buy a million dollar house in metro nyc or dc for under $250K in buffalo.

property taxes is the bigger factor in real estate costs.

real e stste privacy ces sre an issue in many parts of the country and it’s going to come crashing if things aren’t changed.

i current live in DCcand msny home buyers got in during the early mid 90s and road the housing wave. When many start to retire and move or die off the housing is going to crash becomes income can’t realistically support the housing prices.

 

[TageGod]

That goes against everything Adams has been saying since his end-of-year press conference two years ago. They want players who WANT to be Buffalo Sabres - not guys who will reluctantly sign with us instead because we overpaid the market rate.

They could want to be a Sabre and want money and want to go to a contender. reading too much into a small overpay on a 1 year deal is silly.

 

[Jacob582]

That goes against everything Adams has been saying since his end-of-year press conference two years ago. They want players who WANT to be Buffalo Sabres - not guys who will reluctantly sign with us instead because we overpaid the market rate.

He's overpaid the market rate on all the UFA's.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

He's overpaid the market rate on all the UFA's.

Clifton and Johnson have both said they received better offers from other teams.

 

[Fjordsen]

He's overpaid the market rate on all the UFA's.

Exactly, would Johnson have signed with Buffalo if Adams hadn't overpaid him? Hardly. Same with Boosh, Comrie, Clifton and others. Perhaps he simply rewarded Okposo and Zemgus, since they are veterans, but for what Jost received such a contract? And overpaying Nosek, for example, is immediately bad. I think it's a bit of a "guys who want to be here" hypocrisy. Money is also very important in this, perhaps paramount.

Clifton and Johnson have both said they received better offers from other teams.

Of course they said, that's what they always say. They also said about Comrie that he got the best offer, but in the end it turned out to be a lie.

 

[Dingo44]

How do we know that? Adams works in media silence. There was ZERO indication we were in on Clifton.....and we signed him. There was ZERO indication that we were in on Johnson....and we signed him. There was ZERO indication we were in on Greenway.....and we traded for him. Same with Stillman. Same with Boosh last offseason.

Hell, Adams flat-out mentioned in his presser that we were definitively in on a forward or two and got close to one......and the identity of that player STILL hasn't leaked.

It's like Schrödinger's cat - this way Adams is in on all trades and free agent signings and yet is in none of them all at the same time - at far as some posters are concerned, at least.

 

[zenthusiast]

KA’s hidden efforts are the Rorschach test of the fanbase

He’s either asleep at his desk or wisely processing the entire league’s transactions in his mind palace

 

[MarkusKetterer]

KA’s hidden efforts are the Rorschach test of the fanbase

He’s either asleep at his desk or wisely processing the entire league’s transactions in his mind palace

It’s like the Pegulas. They’re cheap, but overpay to get anyone.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I always find people defending WNY based on cost of living to be kind of missing the point. You understand that the cost of living is low because not many people want to live there, right? If I were offered a job in NYC, I would consider it. If I were offered a job in Buffalo, I would not. Buffalo's housing costs would never be a consideration, because the house would be in Buffalo, where I don't want to live.

Buffalo is one of the smallest markets in the league, which means, by definition, there's less going on than in other, bigger, cities. There are obviously exceptions, but most NHL players see that as a drawback.

And when it comes to NHL players, it's not the weather - Toronto and Chicago have similar weather and have no trouble drawing in UFAs. And compared with other US markets, it's not the taxes - the NYC teams have the same rate, and CA's are even higher, yet we don't see the Rangers, Sharks, and Kings on every player's no-trade list.

Whether you think it's fair or not, Buffalo is not considered a desirable place to live for most people. It's a small rust-belt city whose population has been declining for decades. I grew up in WNY, but at this point my dad and all my grandparents have passed and my mom retired to Virginia Beach, so I honestly can't think of any reason I'd ever go back. For people who don't have roots in the region...the phrase "Let's move to Buffalo" will not elicit a positive response very often.

I know posting this on this board will go over like a fart in church, but...I can take it.

Some good points in here but there's also a lot of generalizations.

I lived in Europe for 5 years, and travelled most of it. Buffalo isn't that bad of a place to play for Europeans. They mostly do not live in giant cities. And because of the cultural vestiges of centuries past, their towns and cities have houses built very close together. Driving around Buffalo, with the small houses built close together, and the older downtown with the architecture, it's not much different than European life.

And there do exist people who do not want to go to big cities. I know plenty of people who would never live in NYC or Chicago, or anywhere in LA, but would consider a place like Buffalo. I've also lived in 10 different States in the US over the years, and interacted with a lot of different people.

I do agree that many players and their families wouldn't consider Buffalo, but I don't think it's as overwhelming as you presented it.

 

[zenthusiast]

It’s like the Pegulas. They’re cheap, but overpay to get anyone.

Well those two aren’t mutually exclusive, assuming you only overpay plugs

 

[Der Jaeger]

I'm presenting this idea in hopes of derailing the "live in Buffalo" talk that we devolve into every summer. I thought of this idea but do not know if I even support it, or if it's realistic in any way.

3-way trade between San Jose, Carolina, and Buffalo

Trade 1: San Jose and Buffalo

Karlsson (20% retained) to Buffalo for 2024 1st, Isak Rosen, Jokiharju, Lyubushkin, and Olofsson (50% retained).

Why San Jose does this: they need to move on from Karlsson and hopefully get futures. They get 2x 1st round picks in the 2024 1st and Rosen. Jokiharju could be a good fit for the Sharks, as they have plenty of defense-first types on the back end. He might be able to blossom the way Montour did once he left. Lyubushkin and Olofsson are future trade chips to pass to a contender at the deadline. Lyubushkin is the exact type of defender teams will be looking for at the TDL, and Olofsson coming in at a bargain price, especially if the Sharks retain even more, would be another good trade piece. Lyubushkin could bring in a 4th and Olofsson a 2nd, making the eventually futures haul for the Sharks pretty significant.

Why Buffalo does this: They don't need Karlsson, but they could really use Pesce. Carolina wants Karlsson but need some price reductions to make it happen. Buffalo facilitates as the middle man. The trade for Karlsson means Buffalo will retain some money. Their has to be some indication that the cap will go up next season, and with Okposo, Girgensons, Johnson, and Comrie coming off the books (combined $10M), Buffalo can absorb some retained salary.

Trade 2: Buffalo and Carolina

Karlsson (25% retained) to Carolina for Pesce (with an already agreed upon extension) and Jack Drury

Why Carolina does this: Carolina has a lot of expiring contracts: Aho, Teravainen, Martinook, Skjei, Pesce, Chatfield, and Raanta. Having effective players like Martinook coming in at $1.8M per season is going to go away soon. Plus, Necas, Drury, Jarvis, and Coghlan will need new contracts as RFAs. The future is very much now in Raleigh. They've been really close for years, and they take the leap that Karlsson gets them over the top. He also comes in under the $11.5M cost.

Why Buffalo does this: Dahlin and Power are the future of the Buffalo defense, which could be similar to the blueline that drove the Preds to the Cup finals sveral years back. Dahlin is enabled by Samuelsson. Having Pesce next to Power for his formative years could help him develop in the same way Dahlin did. This move also pushes Clifton to a 3rd pairing role, and with Johnson coming in the future, would give Buffalo the league's best blueline. It does come with retained salary of $2.3M for 4 seasons, but that would be offset by veterans leaving and a rising cap.

Opening night line-up
Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mittelstadt - Cozens - Peterka
Greenway - Krebs - Drury
Girgensons - Jost - Okposo

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Pesce
Stillman - Clifton
Bryson - Johnson

Levi, UPL, Comrie

$77,248,570

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Some good points in here but there's also a lot of generalizations.

I lived in Europe for 5 years, and travelled most of it. Buffalo isn't that bad of a place to play for Europeans. They mostly do not live in giant cities. And because of the cultural vestiges of centuries past, their towns and cities have houses built very close together. Driving around Buffalo, with the small houses built close together, and the older downtown with the architecture, it's not much different than European life.

And there do exist people who do not want to go to big cities. I know plenty of people who would never live in NYC or Chicago, or anywhere in LA, but would consider a place like Buffalo. I've also lived in 10 different States in the US over the years, and interacted with a lot of different people.

I do agree that many players and their families wouldn't consider Buffalo, but I don't think it's as overwhelming as you presented it.

The last 5 pages have just been generalizations.

1 person makes a shitty argument and 3 people feel the need to argue the shitty argument and 5 pages later we’re arguing roe v wade and whether Czech women are influencing cost of living standards in small markets. This is why 1 line sarcastic responses are appropriate.

 

[ForsbergMoDo21]

some guys I wouldn't mind on a very cheap contract to help add flavor to our bottom 6 rotation:

Ryan Dzingel, Ondrej Kase, Joonas Donskoi,

Shoot, I wouldn't mind utilizing Granato's services to try and rebuild Nolan Patrick's career. He's had a decent track record of correcting course for a couple young players, especially guys with talent (Mittelstadt, Thompson, Skinner). You have cap space, you have contract space. You could pick him up for cheap.

Kase would likely be the most flavorful, depending on aging. Tatar also might be a player some relish.

 

[BUCKSHOT]

But it is also possible that Adams simply did not show interest in Nosek because he was pleased with the line-up and re-signed Jost. Doesn't this scenario seem more realistic to you? I think.

this is YOUR opinion, not FACT

 

[Jim Bob]

this is YOUR opinion, not FACT

Adams said that despite not qualifying Jost, they were trying to re-sign him prior to 7/1.

Since that did happen, I think it is safe to say that Adams was not thinking about Nosek. We do know there are other forwards he was kicking the tires on, but they signed long before Nosek did.

 

[TehDoak]

That goes against everything Adams has been saying since his end-of-year press conference two years ago. They want players who WANT to be Buffalo Sabres - not guys who will reluctantly sign with us instead because we overpaid the market rate.

That has never been a realistic goal. I said it when he first said it. You are a small market team in a high tax, poor weather market. You are last on most NHLers lists. To get the talent level you need to compete, you'll never have that kind of blanket 'guys who want to be Sabres and live in Buffalo'. You want 'Guys who want to be in the NHL and will buy in to the coaches plan regardless of market'. Plenty of teams have had good soliders who left at first opportunity. Tkachuk in Calgary is the perfect example, great leader, teammate...wanted to be somewhere else.

How do we know that? Adams works in media silence.

That isn't close to accurate. If Adams farts too loud, it's on 32 Thoughts next week.

There was ZERO indication we were in on Clifton.....and we signed him.

He was signed an hour into UFA period and twitter was broke.

There was ZERO indication that we were in on Johnson....and we signed him.

He was signed an hour into UFA period and twitter was broke.

There was ZERO indication we were in on Greenway .....and we traded for him.

Plenty of people linked us to Greenway prior to the trade deadline.

Same with Stillman.

Because it was a trade for a bad teams 7th d-man for a marginal prospect?

Same with Boosh last offseason.

Again....mid level UFA signed shortly into UFA season. There was no rumors because, to be blunt, it's not a name that will get clicks.

Hell, Adams flat-out mentioned in his presser that we were definitively in on a forward or two and got close to one......and the identity of that player STILL hasn't leaked.

None of this is evidence of some kind of 'cone of silence' for Adams. When Reinhart, Risto, and Eichel were on the market, we heard plenty. We had weekly updates on teams that were interested in Eichel, what the Sabres were trying to do, etc. If Adams calls about any player of note, it leaks. The reason we hear so little about Adams is because Adams has tried to do so little.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Some good points in here but there's also a lot of generalizations.

I lived in Europe for 5 years, and travelled most of it. Buffalo isn't that bad of a place to play for Europeans. They mostly do not live in giant cities. And because of the cultural vestiges of centuries past, their towns and cities have houses built very close together. Driving around Buffalo, with the small houses built close together, and the older downtown with the architecture, it's not much different than European life.

And there do exist people who do not want to go to big cities. I know plenty of people who would never live in NYC or Chicago, or anywhere in LA, but would consider a place like Buffalo. I've also lived in 10 different States in the US over the years, and interacted with a lot of different people.

I do agree that many players and their families wouldn't consider Buffalo, but I don't think it's as overwhelming as you presented it.

Buffalo is uglier than 95% of europe though. Visually depressing which matters.

 

[Gras]

I'm presenting this idea in hopes of derailing the "live in Buffalo" talk that we devolve into every summer. I thought of this idea but do not know if I even support it, or if it's realistic in any way.

3-way trade between San Jose, Carolina, and Buffalo

Trade 1: San Jose and Buffalo

Karlsson (20% retained) to Buffalo for 2024 1st, Isak Rosen, Jokiharju, Lyubushkin, and Olofsson (50% retained).

Why San Jose does this: they need to move on from Karlsson and hopefully get futures. They get 2x 1st round picks in the 2024 1st and Rosen. Jokiharju could be a good fit for the Sharks, as they have plenty of defense-first types on the back end. He might be able to blossom the way Montour did once he left. Lyubushkin and Olofsson are future trade chips to pass to a contender at the deadline. Lyubushkin is the exact type of defender teams will be looking for at the TDL, and Olofsson coming in at a bargain price, especially if the Sharks retain even more, would be another good trade piece. Lyubushkin could bring in a 4th and Olofsson a 2nd, making the eventually futures haul for the Sharks pretty significant.

Why Buffalo does this: They don't need Karlsson, but they could really use Pesce. Carolina wants Karlsson but need some price reductions to make it happen. Buffalo facilitates as the middle man. The trade for Karlsson means Buffalo will retain some money. Their has to be some indication that the cap will go up next season, and with Okposo, Girgensons, Johnson, and Comrie coming off the books (combined $10M), Buffalo can absorb some retained salary.

Trade 2: Buffalo and Carolina

Karlsson (25% retained) to Carolina for Pesce (with an already agreed upon extension) and Jack Drury

Why Carolina does this: Carolina has a lot of expiring contracts: Aho, Teravainen, Martinook, Skjei, Pesce, Chatfield, and Raanta. Having effective players like Martinook coming in at $1.8M per season is going to go away soon. Plus, Necas, Drury, Jarvis, and Coghlan will need new contracts as RFAs. The future is very much now in Raleigh. They've been really close for years, and they take the leap that Karlsson gets them over the top. He also comes in under the $11.5M cost.

Why Buffalo does this: Dahlin and Power are the future of the Buffalo defense, which could be similar to the blueline that drove the Preds to the Cup finals sveral years back. Dahlin is enabled by Samuelsson. Having Pesce next to Power for his formative years could help him develop in the same way Dahlin did. This move also pushes Clifton to a 3rd pairing role, and with Johnson coming in the future, would give Buffalo the league's best blueline. It does come with retained salary of $2.3M for 4 seasons, but that would be offset by veterans leaving and a rising cap.

Opening night line-up
Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mittelstadt - Cozens - Peterka
Greenway - Krebs - Drury
Girgensons - Jost - Okposo

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Pesce
Stillman - Clifton
Bryson - Johnson

Levi, UPL, Comrie

$77,248,570

Looks like you stole my 3 way idea and ran with it. But damn that seems like a lot of pieces for us to give up in the deal.

 

[TageGod]

I'm presenting this idea in hopes of derailing the "live in Buffalo" talk that we devolve into every summer. I thought of this idea but do not know if I even support it, or if it's realistic in any way.

3-way trade between San Jose, Carolina, and Buffalo

Trade 1: San Jose and Buffalo

Karlsson (20% retained) to Buffalo for 2024 1st, Isak Rosen, Jokiharju, Lyubushkin, and Olofsson (50% retained).

Why San Jose does this: they need to move on from Karlsson and hopefully get futures. They get 2x 1st round picks in the 2024 1st and Rosen. Jokiharju could be a good fit for the Sharks, as they have plenty of defense-first types on the back end. He might be able to blossom the way Montour did once he left. Lyubushkin and Olofsson are future trade chips to pass to a contender at the deadline. Lyubushkin is the exact type of defender teams will be looking for at the TDL, and Olofsson coming in at a bargain price, especially if the Sharks retain even more, would be another good trade piece. Lyubushkin could bring in a 4th and Olofsson a 2nd, making the eventually futures haul for the Sharks pretty significant.

Why Buffalo does this: They don't need Karlsson, but they could really use Pesce. Carolina wants Karlsson but need some price reductions to make it happen. Buffalo facilitates as the middle man. The trade for Karlsson means Buffalo will retain some money. Their has to be some indication that the cap will go up next season, and with Okposo, Girgensons, Johnson, and Comrie coming off the books (combined $10M), Buffalo can absorb some retained salary.

Trade 2: Buffalo and Carolina

Karlsson (25% retained) to Carolina for Pesce (with an already agreed upon extension) and Jack Drury

Why Carolina does this: Carolina has a lot of expiring contracts: Aho, Teravainen, Martinook, Skjei, Pesce, Chatfield, and Raanta. Having effective players like Martinook coming in at $1.8M per season is going to go away soon. Plus, Necas, Drury, Jarvis, and Coghlan will need new contracts as RFAs. The future is very much now in Raleigh. They've been really close for years, and they take the leap that Karlsson gets them over the top. He also comes in under the $11.5M cost.

Why Buffalo does this: Dahlin and Power are the future of the Buffalo defense, which could be similar to the blueline that drove the Preds to the Cup finals sveral years back. Dahlin is enabled by Samuelsson. Having Pesce next to Power for his formative years could help him develop in the same way Dahlin did. This move also pushes Clifton to a 3rd pairing role, and with Johnson coming in the future, would give Buffalo the league's best blueline. It does come with retained salary of $2.3M for 4 seasons, but that would be offset by veterans leaving and a rising cap.

Opening night line-up
Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mittelstadt - Cozens - Peterka
Greenway - Krebs - Drury
Girgensons - Jost - Okposo

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Pesce
Stillman - Clifton
Bryson - Johnson

Levi, UPL, Comrie

$77,248,570

you know what, sign me up.

 

[gallagt01]

This board has become wildly exhausting to read.