Player Discussion Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: The Silent Beast

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

The ranking is based on percentage of points on the PP. Having low 5v5 points is basically a requirement.

RNH is scoring at over a point per game pace and is in the top echelons of overall scoring in the league. He has 15 PP points out of 30 points scored with only 3 PP goals out of 13. That is not low 5v5 points. You deposit points in the bank, not percentages.

I also assume you also include Hyman, Kane, Draisaitl and McDavid in that comment that we do not have any good 5v5 players.

 

[McDNicks17]

RNH is scoring at over a point per game pace and is in the top echelons of overall scoring in the league. He has 15 PP points out of 30 points scored with only 3 PP goals out of 13. That is not low 5v5 points. You deposit points in the bank, not percentages.

I also assume you also include Hyman, Kane, Draisaitl and McDavid in that comment that we do not have any good 5v5 players.

He's currently tied for 98th in the league in 5v5 points.

As far as players on the PP go(another obvious requirement for the ranking), it's really low.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Unsung hero on our team. Not the biggest, fastest, flashiest, but he gets the job done.

He did some of his homework in the offseason and we've seen a lot of comments from him how much he worked on his shot. I mean thank gawd, but this ought to ahve occurred 10yrs before. Thankful for what he's done and he's getting crisper delivery with more sauce on it. His prior shooting was primarily beating goalies on screens. Now from range he can beat goalies with some more mustard on shots.

heres a thing. With McD and Drai here I think it kind of hurt Nuges confidence in that he knew he couldn't be those guys or be anything like them. But the presence of Kane and Hyman specifically I think has reminded Nuge that are several ways that he can up his game, and get the most out of his game like those players. So that Nuge couldnt learn from superstars because he didn't feel up to that standard but that he could compare himself to players coming in here and making the team better. Essentially Kane and Hyman represent the Hall and Eberle's that Nuge is more capable to keep up with. if this makes any sense.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

He has 10 even strength goals this season in 27 games (which I'm sure are predominantly 5 on 5 goals), I'm not sure what more you can reasonably expect from him. He has 3 more even strength goals than Draisaitl, for example. This is the best I've seen Nuge look at 5 on 5 in years, at least offensively.

I will take the 10 goals all day this year, but historically hes been pretty brutal no?

Last two years 5 on 5, I think its fair to want a little more. Hope he keeps his pace this year though - he has been pretty awesome!

 

[joestevens29]

He's currently tied for 98th in the league in 5v5 points.

As far as players on the PP go(another obvious requirement for the ranking), it's really low.

98th makes him damn near 1st line production then.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

He's currently tied for 98th in the league in 5v5 points.

As far as players on the PP go(another obvious requirement for the ranking), it's really low.

You use percentages to make certain points but abandon percentages when it's not convenient for your argument.

There are 700 players not playing goal who play in the NHL including call ups. That puts RNH in the top 14% of 5v5 points which seems pretty good no?

It's nonsensical to say he is not a good 5v5 player.

As for power play points, special teams are a critical part of how teams score and decide games more often than not. They are typically created from strong 5v5 play where the opponent has to be penalized to stop a 5v5 chance or advancement of the puck. (which is why offensive zone penalties drive coaches nuts)

Justin Bourne, an ex AHL player, the son of NYI legend Bobby Bourne and current analyst with a strong lean towards advanced stats recently did a piece deriding the advanced stats community for speaking poorly of power play points and he was 100% correct.

Power plays are often earned by strong 5v5 play, power points count, and decide many hockey games.

 

[McDNicks17]

You use percentages to make certain points but abandon percentages when it's not convenient for your argument.

There are 700 players not playing goal who play in the NHL including call ups. That puts RNH in the top 14% of 5v5 points which seems pretty good no?

It's nonsensical to say he is not a good 5v5 player.

As for power play points, special teams are a critical part of how teams score and decide games more often than not. They are typically created from strong 5v5 play where the opponent has to be penalized to stop a 5v5 chance or advancement of the puck. (which is why offensive zone penalties drive coaches nuts)

Justin Bourne, an ex AHL player, the son of NYI legend Bobby Bourne and current analyst with a strong lean towards advanced stats recently did a piece deriding the advanced stats community for speaking poorly of power play points and he was 100% correct.

Power plays are often earned by strong 5v5 play, power points count, and decide many hockey games.

Obviously I'm talking about percentages. The article we're talking about is specifically using percentages for the ranking haha.

He's a guy who is lucky to get you 30 5v5 points while often playing a big chunk of his minutes with the two highest scoring forwards in the league. He's had a positive goal differential at 5v5 once in his last 10 seasons. He just isn't a good 5v5 player no matter how you slice it.

PP points are nice until you don't get enough PPs for it to matter. The huge majority of the game is played at 5v5 hence why the best teams in the league are often the best 5v5 teams in the league. You're guaranteed to get 5v5 time. You aren't guaranteed to get PP time. When was the last time a team made any noise in the playoffs with PP goals making up for below average 5v5 play?

 

[bucks_oil]

I will take the 10 goals all day this year, but historically hes been pretty brutal no?

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Last two years 5 on 5, I think its fair to want a little more. Hope he keeps his pace this year though - he has been pretty awesome!

Historically, no... he's averaged 16 goals/82 over his career, including seasons with 18, 19 and 22 EVG. That's not elite, but it's solid production. That's typically going to get you into the top 90 in the league, aka top-line forward territory.

The last two years, that you quoted there... yeah, for some reason he was pretty horrendous at even strength, but those were by far the exception to the rule.

 

[bucks_oil]

He's a guy who is lucky to get you 30 5v5 points while often playing a big chunk of his minutes with the two highest scoring forwards in the league.

Where are you getting your stats from?

He's averaged 37 even strength points/82 games over his entire career.

He's scored more than 30 even strength points in 6 of 11 seasons. Among the 5 seasons he didn't make it: his rookie season he missed by a single point and was injured, two other seasons he missed at least 27 games, one was strike shortened, and one (last year) we can all agree wasn't his best, but he did miss 19 games and was on still on pace for 28.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

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He's had a positive goal differential at 5v5 once in his last 10 seasons. He just isn't a good 5v5 player no matter how you slice it.

Also not true, he's had a positive EV and 5v5 goal differential in 3 of the last 5 seasons

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

 

[The Nuge]

Only noticable difference I'm seeing is he gets his shot off quickly now.

Seasons past he would polish it off a bit, allowing the defensemen and goalies to setup. This year he just rips it when he sees the opening.

He looks a lot like the dynamic Rookie-Nuge.

Ya when he’s playing with some swagger he’s legitimately got one of the quickest releases in the league. He’s never going to just flat out blow it by a goalie like Leon, but he can sneak it by before the goalie has a chance to react when he’s in close. Imo, it has a lot to do with his linemates. When he’s playing with plugs (which is most of the time) he has to favour defense, and it doesn’t let him get in tight where his shot becomes more effective

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Historically, no... he's averaged 16 goals/82 over his career, including seasons with 18, 19 and 22 EVG. That's not elite, but it's solid production. That's typically going to get you into the top 90 in the league, aka top-line forward territory.

The last two years, that you quoted there... yeah, for some reason he was pretty horrendous at even strength, but those were by far the exception to the rule.

While I can't speak for 2020-21, in 2021-22 he had well below his career average sh%.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Obviously I'm talking about percentages. The article we're talking about is specifically using percentages for the ranking haha.

He's a guy who is lucky to get you 30 5v5 points while often playing a big chunk of his minutes with the two highest scoring forwards in the league. He's had a positive goal differential at 5v5 once in his last 10 seasons. He just isn't a good 5v5 player no matter how you slice it.

PP points are nice until you don't get enough PPs for it to matter. The huge majority of the game is played at 5v5 hence why the best teams in the league are often the best 5v5 teams in the league. You're guaranteed to get 5v5 time. You aren't guaranteed to get PP time. When was the last time a team made any noise in the playoffs with PP goals making up for below average 5v5 play?

Your selective use of percentages to prop up an argument yet post a numeric stat that RNH was 98th in 5v5 points this year, framing it like it was a negative stat - failing to state that is in the top 14% of the players in the league which utterly destroys your argument.

You can discuss his past years performance (and by his own admission he did not like his year last year) but the article I posted discusses this years performance. Last years strike outs do not lose todays ball games but when the player is out there hitting .300 and putting up real, not expected, goals and points you have to give credit where credit is due.

PP points count, you can continue to believe they are worthless, but they win hockey games, in the regular season and playoffs.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Historically, no... he's averaged 16 goals/82 over his career, including seasons with 18, 19 and 22 EVG. That's not elite, but it's solid production. That's typically going to get you into the top 90 in the league, aka top-line forward territory.

The last two years, that you quoted there... yeah, for some reason he was pretty horrendous at even strength, but those were by far the exception to the rule.

Fair enough - I hope he keeps it up, I think hes a good player. Maybe I was skewed by the last few years, but I always felt like he left something to be desired 5v5.

 

[McDNicks17]

Your selective use of percentages to prop up an argument yet post a numeric stat that RNH was 98th in 5v5 points this year, framing it like it was a negative stat - failing to state that is in the top 14% of the players in the league which utterly destroys your argument.

You can discuss his past years performance (and by his own admission he did not like his year last year) but the article I posted discusses this years performance. Last years strike outs do not lose todays ball games but when the player is out there hitting .300 and putting up real, not expected, goals and points you have to give credit where credit is due.

PP points count, you can continue to believe they are worthless, but they win hockey games, in the regular season and playoffs.

I sure hope he's around 14% when you're using a player pool that includes hundreds of players that have barely played 5 games haha. Brett Kulak is in the top 24% of the league in 5v5 scoring. Looks like we've got another offensive dynamo back there.

Try running those numbers again with forwards that actually have a similar amount of ice time as Nuge.

 

[FlameChampion]

As much as people talk about McDrai.

RNH and Hyman have been good this year, at least from an offensive point of view. I think Hyman could still clean his defensive game a bit, but could say that about the whole team.

Good on Nuge. Love when he succeeds.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I don't care about 5v5 stats, Nuge is producing and that's all that matter to me

 

[Throttlehead]

Nuge has always been a good player on some terrible teams, it was surprising people complained about his contract. He doesn't bang guys in the boards but he does win a lot of battles along the boards with his quickness and smarts. The PP went south quite a bit when he was out, getting points on the PP shows he is valuable to the PP and all other players on it. I dont understand why its a negative, give me any player that can get 40 PP points and 20 at evens. He is responsible on the defensive side of the puck and doesn't cheat for offence which is something a lot of our players should learn from. He can and does play PP, PK, and every position in top 9 while making just over 5 mil. We should be very happy to have him.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I sure hope he's around 14% when you're using a player pool that includes hundreds of players that have barely played 5 games haha. Brett Kulak is in the top 24% of the league in 5v5 scoring. Looks like we've got another offensive dynamo back there.

Try running those numbers again with forwards that actually have a similar amount of ice time as Nuge.

He is in the top 25% of 384 regular game in game out playing forwards. Good enough for me.

Slice and dice it any way you want but your “analysis” that he’s not having a good 5v5 year and that PP points are worthless is left field spreadsheet gobbledygook.

And don’t forget, you also think McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane and Hyman aren’t any good 5v5 either.

I don't care about 5v5 stats, Nuge is producing and that's all that matter to me

BuT mY sPrEaDsHeEt SaYs OtHeRwIsE

And don’t forget

JeSsE PuLjUjArVi MaKeS mCdAvId BeTtEr

 

[McDNicks17]

He is in the top 25% of 384 regular game in game out playing forwards. Good enough for me.

Slice and dice it any way you want but your “analysis” that he’s not having a good 5v5 year and that PP points are worthless is left field spreadsheet gobbledygook.

And don’t forget, you also think McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane and Hyman aren’t any good 5v5 either.

He's in the top 55% of forwards within 100 minutes of his ice time. And that's with scoring at his highest rate in years. I'd expect more considering his usage.

Also didn't you say strong 5v5 play draws penalties? Nuge being 17th on the team in penalties drawn/60 this year and 25th over the past three seasons makes sense then.

 

[Aerchon]

As much as people talk about McDrai.

RNH and Hyman have been good this year, at least from an offensive point of view. I think Hyman could still clean his defensive game a bit, but could say that about the whole team.

Good on Nuge. Love when he succeeds.

This.

And Nuge needs to work on his shot every summer from now on.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

He's in the top 55% of forwards within 100 minutes of his ice time. And that's with scoring at his highest rate in years. I'd expect more considering his usage.

Also didn't you say strong 5v5 play draws penalties? Nuge being 17th on the team in penalties drawn/60 this year and 25th over the past three seasons makes sense then.

Throw around whatever numbers you want to build a case that RNH is not having a good 5v5 year. It just reinforces your bias against him and I would suggest a fundamental lack of knowledge on the game itself, in particular when you lump Hyman, Draisaitl, Kane and McDavid as not being good 5v5 players either.

Regarding the penalties I am referring to team play. Overall, it is a team game with wild variables, even though your spreadsheet has individual columns.

Strong team play often results in opponents taking penalties against you as they break or wear down in a shift. RNH doesn't have to be the player who drew the penalty, he may have been the player who passed to a teammate in a poorly defended zone who got taken down to negate a scoring chance. That wont show up in his penalties drawn / 60.

 

[Spawn]

He’s been solid offensively this year for sure.

 

[McDNicks17]

Throw around whatever numbers you want to build a case that RNH is not having a good 5v5 year. It just reinforces your bias against him and I would suggest a fundamental lack of knowledge on the game itself, in particular when you lump Hyman, Draisaitl, Kane and McDavid as not being good 5v5 players either.

Regarding the penalties I am referring to team play. Overall, it is a team game with wild variables, even though your spreadsheet has individual columns.

Strong team play often results in opponents taking penalties against you as they break or wear down in a shift. RNH doesn't have to be the player who drew the penalty, he may have been the player who passed to a teammate in a poorly defended zone and that player got taken down to negate a scoring chance. That wont show up in his penalties drawn / 60.

The only bias I'm seeing is you trying to turn this into an anti-analytics thing haha. I haven't brought up or even alluded to them, but you've been trying to shoehorn it into every post.

5v5 play isn't analytics. It's just the reality of the league. If you aren't good at 5v5, you aren't going anywhere. I'm well past the point of being happy about boxcars instead of eventual team success.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

The only bias I'm seeing is you trying to turn this into an anti-analytics thing haha. I haven't brought up or even alluded to them, but you've been trying to shoehorn it into every post.

5v5 play isn't analytics. It's just the reality of the league. If you aren't good at 5v5, you aren't going anywhere. I'm well past the point of being happy about boxcars instead of eventual team success.

Youve posted various numbers - which I assume you got from someone’s spreadsheet.

You view the game through that lens and that’s your deal. Far be it from me to tell you how to enjoy the game but don’t use your biases supported by flimsy, selective and out of context numbers to tell me the sky is purple.

Take a rink whiteboard and show how your numbers are actually created. I don’t think you can. You can sort a column but by your statements seem to not understand the actual game itself.

Believing RNH is not having a good season 5v5 (along with 18,29,91,97) and that power play points are worthless just hammers that home to me.

Anyway I’m sure you have some modding to do and I’m tired of this conversational circular reference to nowhere.

Enjoy the evening.

 

[McDNicks17]

Youve posted various numbers - which I assume you got from someone’s spreadsheet.

You view the game through that lens and that’s your deal. Far be it from me to tell you how to enjoy the game but don’t use your biases supported by flimsy, selective and out of context numbers to tell me the sky is purple.

Take a rink whiteboard and show how your numbers are actually created. I don’t think you can. You can sort a column but by your statements seem to not understand the actual game itself.

Believing RNH is not having a good season 5v5 (along with 18,29,91,97) and that power play points are worthless just hammers that home to me.

Anyway I’m sure you have some modding to do and I’m tired of this conversational circular reference to nowhere.

Enjoy the evening.

I view the game through the lens of what's going to win in the playoffs because we should be well past caring about anything else at this point. Scoring half your points on the PP and getting absolutely torched defensively at 5v5 isn't going to do that.

I think the only numbers I've referenced are points and goals/goals against. I don't think it'd be too hard to show you where those stat comes from on a whiteboard.