Prospect Info: Ryan Johnson, D, 2019 #31 overall: Signed, Rochester (AHL), Recalled 12/5/24
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joshjull
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StrompTroller
Registered User
i can hate the pick and still wish the player well at the same time.
Wanting to draft a Kucherov type but still getting a Brodin is fine and dandy. Doesn't mean I didn't want and pull for the forward all along. Wanting a Kucherov and getting a karabacek versus a pysyk is frankly pointless to me because Mark didn't impact the team then and wouldn't now regardless of the metric darlings that still want to parade him as a savior lost on the defensive side. That leaves the other alternative of Johnson becoming Brodin and Kayliev a bust ala karabacek but I'll eat those words when I get there.
Not liking the Johnson pick doesn't mean I'm rooting against him in anyway.
And the point I made (pun intended) is that teams like Tampa take risks on higher end rather than safer players:
Point: 79th overall
Palat: 208th
Kucherov: 58th
Cirelli: 72nd
Johnson-undrafted
Killorn: 77th
Gourde- undrafted
They had a GM with the brass to take Russians and fallers with higher skills but lower draft pedigree and they have been paid out in spades for it.
I'd much rather have a GM that took that approach especially considering the draft capitol we had and/or should have had to waste swinging for the fences on picks which makes this team all the more frustrating.
Buffaloed
webmaster
With the signing of Ryan Jones to a 1 year contract Ryan Johnson is only 3 letters away from being in Rochester.
joshjull
Registered User
You said even if Kaliyev flames out you’re still going to hate the Johnson pick. Thats what I referred to as being irrational. You’re basically saying you’re going to hate the pick no matter what happens down the road. None of the above changes your stance.
You basically hate the pick because of who picked him and the philosophy it represents. That’s what all that ranting above seems to be about. Based on that reasoning, you should also hate every single pick Botts made. Since they would all be a product of his draft philosophy. Maybe you do.
You say you can cheer on Johnson but still hate the pick. I guess thats true but to me this thread at this point is about keeping tabs on Johnson’s development. Ranting about him getting drafted in the first places doesn’t seem much like cheering him on.
EDIT: To be clear, it’s perfectly fine if you wanted someone else drafted and to hate Botts approach. Wasn’t taking you to task over those things.
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StrompTroller
Registered User
I see a lot of rhetoric not touching the subject I broached...
I have no player in the game of any GM's drafting as all have hits and misses. I believe they all failed in later rounds and have some promising picks such as Peterka, Pekar, Samulesson etc. Even a Compher or Brendan would do wonders for this team right now.
You're largely avoiding my major point and not addressing it...
Johnson is a microcosm of a failed Sabres draft strategy for a decade. Safer American/ College etc draft choices with lower end ceilings as opposed to taking a big at bat. That's what separates us from having depth and from playoff contenders. Wasting picks on Cornel, Karbacek, Bailey, Baptiste, Pysyk...lord shall I dig deeper? Asplund...instead of reaching for a higher end guy i.e Kayliev when they are available is the root of my frustration. If Johnson succeeds great if not I've said oh well...I'm used to it from our regime. You're picking an argument over things you aren't even addressing as my main points.
joshjull
Registered User
I got the main point. You’re angry we drafted Johnson over Kaliyev. So you get very carried away attacking the pick. Like Johnson is the poster child for all that is wrong with our drafting for the last 10yrs? Come on, really? The previous 3 GMs hardly had the same operating philosophies. The Sabres just weren’t good at drafting over the last 10 years.
EDIT: I guess if Johnson doesn’t pan out he would be another symbol of that drafting excellence
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DolanPlsGoSabres
スカンデッラ
I'm still dumbfounded that Pysyk who's more or less a full-time NHLer is being put in the same boat as all the other 2nd-3rd rounders who more or less flamed out.
Pysyk was traded for Kulikov (who got bench doored unfortunately) and to move up in the draft, and developed just fine for a late 1st rounder.
You can say you wanted Kuznetsov or Coyle or Brock Nelson at that spot, fine.
But in no way is Pysyk as bust. He wouldn't have been a savior, you're right, but I would've liked to see him on the right side third pairing instead of Tennyson, 2019 onwards Bogo, etc.
Pysyk was traded for Kulikov (who got bench doored unfortunately) and to move up in the draft, and developed just fine for a late 1st rounder.
You can say you wanted Kuznetsov or Coyle or Brock Nelson at that spot, fine.
But in no way is Pysyk as bust. He wouldn't have been a savior, you're right, but I would've liked to see him on the right side third pairing instead of Tennyson, 2019 onwards Bogo, etc.
His game is nothing like Brodin's though. Johnson is braver offensively, and if anything holds onto the puck too long in the O zone, while Brodin hot potato's it. On the negative side, Johnson has nothing like Brodin's poise, positioning, and defending ability in the D zone, and i am talking about 19yo Brodin.
I am firmly on the fence about Johnson. Definitely has his share of brain farts, but I would rather he tries to do things with the puck as a young player than is timid and afraid to make mistakes. Would like to see him develop more awareness defensively, not that he is a disaster there.
He certainly can skate. Escapability under an intense forecheck could be improved. If he gets that, then he could be valuable as a puck mover in the d zone, because he is a legit option to either pass the puck or move it out himself with two or three strong strides.
MarkusKetterer
Shoulda got one game in
Don’t worry. We’ll make him timid and afraid to make mistakes when he leaves Minnesota.
Literally all those “take a shot on skill only” picks by Tampa are in the 3rd round or later, except Kucherov. Point definitely should have went higher but GMs were still oddly fascinated with size. Regardless, you don’t take extreme chances with a 1st round pick. The Sabres have and Nylander sucks and Mitts is finally starting to look not so terrible.
StrompTroller
Registered User
Comparing taking chances on johnson who was kinda a 2nd round pick and Nylander and Mitts at 8th overral is apples to oranges. I've never laid claim to reaching on talent with our top 10 picks in this discussion. I mentioned the Johnson, Pysyk, Karabacek, Cornel, Bailey and Baptistes. Lets hone it in there.
You make the smart pick with your early first and find better value later on. I'm questioning the ability to do the finding talent later part.
jc17
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- Jun 14, 2013
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As simplistic as it sounds, to me it's less about type and more about production. Passing on point, kaliyev, and debrincat is frustrating because they all produced at high level in their draft years, but our scouts needed to outsmart the results
In this past draft it was pretty clear teams like LA, Toronto, and Carolina were targeting these high potential production and I feel like it will work out.
I get DJ's point, it's not that Johnson can't be better than kaliyev and maybe 1 or 2 others, but with the information we had at the time, the rationale for the pick doesn't seem great. It's process vs results. They can say they really saw something in Johnson that made them want him, but that's the same rationalization that leads to taking cornel and karabacek over point, and asplund over debrincat. Now I'm not saying they should always just draft the highest scorer available, but I think history tells us it is the best move if there's someone who had an unusually productive draft year.
In this past draft it was pretty clear teams like LA, Toronto, and Carolina were targeting these high potential production and I feel like it will work out.
I get DJ's point, it's not that Johnson can't be better than kaliyev and maybe 1 or 2 others, but with the information we had at the time, the rationale for the pick doesn't seem great. It's process vs results. They can say they really saw something in Johnson that made them want him, but that's the same rationalization that leads to taking cornel and karabacek over point, and asplund over debrincat. Now I'm not saying they should always just draft the highest scorer available, but I think history tells us it is the best move if there's someone who had an unusually productive draft year.
DolanPlsGoSabres
スカンデッラ
iirc...
Pysyk - not a bust, completely fine for where he was taken. You can argue that it was safe (many people didn't like the pick at the time, shades of Dennis Persson) but for the millionth time he's not in the same mould as the other guys you list.
2013
Compher - good pick for the spot, not safe/reaching.
Hurley - youngest guy in the draft year, there was a chance he could have gone late 1st had he been born 1 day later (we have no knowledge of him going busto at the time), Sabres took a flyer on a potential scoring forward, busted.
Bailey onwards - how many high scoring forwards/solid defensemen were available at the position?
2014
Yes, hindsight says Point.
I think what Murray valued for guys like Cornel and Karabacek were that they improved their production towards the post-season signifying some sort of late-bloomer potential. Obviously it didn't work out.
Pysyk - not a bust, completely fine for where he was taken. You can argue that it was safe (many people didn't like the pick at the time, shades of Dennis Persson) but for the millionth time he's not in the same mould as the other guys you list.
2013
Compher - good pick for the spot, not safe/reaching.
Hurley - youngest guy in the draft year, there was a chance he could have gone late 1st had he been born 1 day later (we have no knowledge of him going busto at the time), Sabres took a flyer on a potential scoring forward, busted.
Bailey onwards - how many high scoring forwards/solid defensemen were available at the position?
2014
Yes, hindsight says Point.
I think what Murray valued for guys like Cornel and Karabacek were that they improved their production towards the post-season signifying some sort of late-bloomer potential. Obviously it didn't work out.
jc17
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- Jun 14, 2013
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Point had 1.8 points per game after New Years in his draft year. Where the next two highest scorers on the team were 1.2 per game and .84 in that stretch respectively...
I just think you have to swing at that pitch in the 2nd round
Old Navy Goat
Registered User
Point was passed over 78 times, including 3x by Tampa before they selected him. He was an undersized, poor skater (technique and speed) that was projected as AHL caliber potential that worked like crazy to improve surpassing all expectations. In a redraft he's going top 3 along with Pastrnak.
joshjull
Registered User
Lets not bring facts into this.
Snippit
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- Dec 5, 2012
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Kaliyev had red flags with his defensive game and effort. I wanted him as well but there’s a reason he didn’t go in the first.
I don’t get how there are still complaints about the pick after the WJC that Johnson just had.
I don’t get how there are still complaints about the pick after the WJC that Johnson just had.
Old Navy Goat
Registered User
MarkusKetterer
Shoulda got one game in
This fanbase will always hate him because of the trade. Even if he becomes another Hedman type guy.
Fjordy
Soul Dancing in the Dark
- Jun 20, 2018
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I will be disappointed if Johnson is only a third pair defender. There, an attacking talent was valid in the draft, and not necessarily Kaliyev, the same Hoglander, Pinto and Robertson.
I hope Johnson will develop properly and become a reliable second pair defender.
I hope Johnson will develop properly and become a reliable second pair defender.
jc17
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- Jun 14, 2013
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Is him putting up 1.8 points per game on a low scoring team not "facts"? Who cares if other teams were asleep at the wheel? Look at Carolina and Toronto's last draft, good teams are realizing that that the high end producers are worth taking, because if you hit on even one you're ahead of the game.
And he wasn't some out of nowhere longshot. A couple analysts had him in the first.
I just think its funny that people are so willing to pass on guys like Point, Debrincat, or Kaliyev for fear they'll be nic Petan, instead drafting "high ceiling guys" that also barely make it to the NHL. There's a chance Kaliyev could bust, there was a chance point could have too. I stand by the idea that when guys with their production are available you take them.
Kaliyev had red flags but a pretty large "green flag" was 51 goals. Doesn't mean he's guaranteed to be good, but I think people forget that "high floor" players also aren't guaranteed to be good. Luckily Johnson seems solid, but again, its "process vs results". Johnson could easily be better than Kaliyev in the NHL, the original point was just that the 5 or 6 years of not taking a shot on a high ceiling player didn't do us many favors. Even though it's the Johnson thread, the point is less about him, and more about our overall draft strategy, if I'm interpreting DJN21's posts correctly.
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joshjull
Registered User
I care, as would any one fairly assessing how that draft played out. The facts of that draft are no one, including Tampa, viewed Point as a 1st or 2nd round pick. So he was drafted in the 3rd round. To single out the Sabres over that to make a larger point about their drafting philosophy is grasping.
It was also odd in an earlier post for you to focus on Asplund from another Murray draft. That pick was a product of Murray seeing something in Asplund that he felt warranted aggressive action to ensure we drafted him. That can’t be viewed as a safe pick by the very nature of the amount of capital he gave up to ensure we drafted him. Murray was just wrong in his evaluation of the player.
No one thinks its ok to miss out on talent. I was pissed Murray didn’t take Debrincat and wasted assets to draft Asplund. It was one of many things drafted related that drive me crazy with Murray. The problem with Murray’s draft record was not about a specific draft philosophy (playing it safe vs taking risks). It was about both (1) the opportunity cost to the picks in the first 3 rounds he trade away and (2) the bad drafting with the picks he kept due to bad talent evaluation.
Botts is the GM that fits the narrative of drafting safer picks not Murray. But I’d also add Botts was very good at acquiring young defensive talent via the draft (Laaksonen, Bryson, Samuelsson and Johnson) trades (Joker) and tapping undrafted free agency (Pilut), He also landed two very good goalie prospects (UPL/Portillo). But he wasn’t good at adding young offensive talent through the draft, trades or UDFA outside out R2. I’m referring to outside of the top of the draft where he got Mitts/Cozens.
Overall Botts did a decent job adding young talent to a fairly barren system. He just wasn’t good at adding high end offensive skill at forward. Hopefully Adams approach will remedy that. I think Quinn and Peterka are a good start.
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joshjull
Registered User
I wanted to answer this half of your post separately.
Its not process vs results. Its always just about results for a GM’s draft history. No one cares about a GM’s process or draft philosophy if they suck at drafting.
The issue I took with @DJN21 stance that started the back and forth the last few pages was when he said he would hate this pick no matter what. Even if Kaliyev flamed out and Johnson turned into Brodin he would still hate it. To me thats not a very rational stance to take and I said as much. Then he tried to make it about a draft philosophy and what Johnson symbolized about our last 10 years of drafting. That doesn’t make it any better for two reasons (1) It comes across as petulantly refusing to ever admit you were wrong about a player and (2) the theory doesn’t hold water.
We did take a shot at two high ceiling players; Nylander and Mitts. One didn’t work out and the other hasn’t so far. The Nylander pick is exactly what you and DJ are talking about. Take the high skilled player over the safer one like the dmen available in that draft. If either of Nylander/Mitts had turned out we’re not having this discussion.
nickdawg95
scoutdawg
- Jan 7, 2016
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On record for being a hoglander fanboy during that draft also would have been okay with kaliyev as a 2nd choice, with that being said it made no sense to pick johnson when we were starved of offensive forward prospects.
glad to see he's coming along though. but a Hoggy-Cozy-HUgheyz boy line would dominate behind any eichel line and thats that on that
