Ryan Johansen

[Crede777]

I think it's pretty safe to say Columbus will get Johansen signed to a bridge deal.

 

[Sore Loser]

I think it's pretty safe to say Columbus will get Johansen signed to a bridge deal.

For sure.

 

[Kington91]

Where do people realistically see his absolute ceiling as?? 90 points?

 

[Fro]

I think 75-80 while playing well defensively...

 

[Jackets16]

I'm a Canucks fan and I was hoping you guys could settle something for me (having a discussion with friends at the bar and a bit of a discussion on the Canucks board):

If the Canucks were to offer Ryan Johansen the following offer-sheets this off-season would CBJ match:

-$5.886M x 3 years (compensation is 1+ 3rd)
-$6.5M x 3 years (compensation is a 1st + 2nd + 3rd)
-$7.0M x 3 years (comepsnation is a 1st + 2nd + 3rd)
-$7.5M x 3 years (compensation is 1st + 2nd + 3rd)
-$7.848M x 3 years (comepnsation is 1st + 2nd + 3rd)
-$9.81M x 7 years (compensation is 2 x 1st + 2nd + 3rd)

Here is a summary of the discussions I've had:

-This all assumes RJ finishes at about what he's on pace for, or a little better: ~ 30 goals and 60-70 points
-RJ is a local guy (to Vancouver) who looks like he's developing into a superstar.
-If RJ signs in VAN, the Canucks can afford to lose picks because they don't have many roster places to fill
-RJ is in no way worth even close to $7M (a point I disagree with...I think the way he's going, he might be worth $7M next season, especially with the cap rising)
-VAN's only RFA this year that they would care about losing is Tanev, and the team makes a lot of money so blow back is not a huge concern
-CBJ seems to be stuggling at the gate
-CBJ is clearing $7.5M of cap space with Gaborik coming off the books
-CBJ seems to have a log of players in the $3M-$5M range who are not really getting the job done
-CBJ is an up and coming team who are close while VAN is a declining team, would RJ even move if given the chance (I'd say $7M would likely cause me to move)
-People rarely give offersheets
-VAN is not really in a position to offer a trade since they don't have anyone who CBJ would want that they could afford to give up unless CBJ would want picks + prospects (and Horvat would not be made avaialble...would rather offer-sheet than trade him)
-The salary cap looks like it's going to go from $64.3M this year to $75M next year and $85M the year after that
-CBJ has one of the highest payrolls in the league
-VAN as a team is aging out so their picks might not be as late as they have been in the past five years.
-Nobody should be giving up picks in the 2015 draft because it looks amazing.

Interested in hearing your guys' thoughts.

I don't see any way we let Johansen go anywhere. We have needed a #1 center forever, have spent time developing him, and he is finally starting to show that he is going to be a great center for us. Why would we let him go?

 

[Kington91]

I think 75-80 while playing well defensively...

You think that is his absolute ceiling?? As in you could never ever see him getting more than 80 points? I don't know, but that seems a bit pessimistic.

(this is assuming everything goes right for him obviously, that is why I said absolute ceiling and not conservative ceiling)

 

[Samkow]

You think that is his absolute ceiling?? As in you could never ever see him getting more than 80 points? I don't know, but that seems a bit pessimistic.

(this is assuming everything goes right for him obviously, that is why I said absolute ceiling and not conservative ceiling)

I mean, 90-100 points is possible but that'd require a generational talent to play with regularly. Don't see us getting one anytime soon.

Most likely best-case scenario: A 75 point defensively-adequate center.

 

[major major]

I mean, 90-100 points is possible but that'd require a generational talent to play with regularly. Don't see us getting one anytime soon.

Most likely best-case scenario: A 75 point defensively-adequate center.

His pattern of multi-point games seems to suggest a player who can pile up points once the confidence gets going and he starts really wanting the puck. I think he could hit 100 points playing with good but not great wings like Foligno, Horton, Atkinson, etc.. It all depends on consistency.

I'm not sure if its the same as your "most likely best-case scenario", but I put my median expectation for RyJo at 75ish points.

 

[Fro]

could he get to 90 once or twice in his career? sure...but overall I think we should expect a .90-.95 PPG player, which isn't too shabby

 

[Kington91]

I mean, 90-100 points is possible but that'd require a generational talent to play with regularly. Don't see us getting one anytime soon.

Most likely best-case scenario: A 75 point defensively-adequate center.

Generational seems a bit much. I think he could hit 90 with just 2 legit first line players on his wings.

 

[InauguralCBJFan]

Most likely best-case scenario: A 75 point defensively-adequate center.

I'm cool with that.

 

[604]

I agree. No to mention, the Canucks already have over $60m committed to 16 players next year. Could they really, honestly afford to drop nearly $7m on a guy that has had one breakout year ... even with the cap going up? They will need to get another 6 or 7 guys at best under that umbrella; signing a guy to a contract higher than your two star players might not be such a great idea in that scenario.

This is all hogwash. It will never happen ... not for the Canucks. You want Johansen? Send us Kesler and some other pieces ... Johansen is a younger version of Kesler.

That's the thing, as a fan of the Canucks, I'd rather the team send 2 x 1st + 2nd + 3rd and spend an extra $5M then send Kesler over. I'm sure the team can appreciate that. It's not like any of our earned (i.e. got due to where we finished in the standings) 1st or 2nd round picks have become full-time NHLers on our squad since 2005 (Raymond). Note: Hodgson's pick we got from a lottery, not our spot in the standings.

As far as salary is concerned, rumor is the cap is going up to $75M. Say RJ gets $8.4M, that leaves $6.6M to sign Chris Tanev, Mike Santorelli, and a couple fourth liners/spares. Certainly doable...even easier if David Booth is a compliance buy-out, which is expected. The Canucks don't have a notable RFA/UFA coming up until 2016-17.

CBJ can clearly afford RJ at that price, especially given the fact that Gaborik's contract is expiring but would they rather just not match and take the picks + save the cash?

As a Canucks fan, I'd be happier just to offer this year's picks (1st + 2nd + 3rd) + a former first like Jensen/Shinkaruk/Gaunce and sign RJ to a long-term deal ourselves but I highly doubt that gets accepted.

No, they wouldn't match because no team in their right mind would make an offer to a player after his rookie contract like that. It's ludicrous to even think about because we're talking Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin money and as much as I like Johansen he isn't in that league nor will he likely ever be.

That's general thinking but honestly, the Flyers just offered Shea Weber $20M in one season that only 42 games got played in. Stealing a talent is worth a lot to a GM and with the cap going up, $8.4M is the equivalent of $5.6M from the year that Vanek got a $7.1M offer-sheet and the year after with the cap at $85M it will be the equivalent of $5M.

Certainly doable if you have a bit of a long-term outlook.

I honestly believe that Vanek will sign for $10M this off-season with a lot of guys following suit. Might as well jump the gun and get a very good young player.

At 6.7 I think we match. If you'd match at 6 I don't think 700k makes any diff. As the cap rises, unfortunately guys are going to make more.

I agree, I think $6.7M is an easy match. Need to take this thing up to $8.4M to get any traction...at that point, is it still an easy decision?

I think it's pretty safe to say Columbus will get Johansen signed to a bridge deal.

It takes two to tango. If CBJ is offering a $4M-$5M bridge, why wouldn't RJ hold-out. It's not like that offer won't be available after July 1st.

 

[pete goegan]

CBJ can clearly afford RJ at that price, especially given the fact that Gaborik's contract is expiring but would they rather just not match and take the picks + save the cash?

No, I don't believe they would.

 

[Debrincat93]

This kid is just unreal. I watched a few games, well parts of them, the past few weeks and the kid is just always in the right spot at the right time. Making his teammates better, and takes key draws.

if he can improve as much next year as he has this year, he will be the breakout player of the year next year. Sickening.

 

[pete goegan]

This kid is just unreal. I watched a few games, well parts of them, the past few weeks and the kid is just always in the right spot at the right time. Making his teammates better, and takes key draws.

if he can improve as much next year as he has this year, he will be the breakout player of the year next year. Sickening.

Considering the luck your team has had with late picks, the overall success the Wings have enjoyed, and (especially!) their domination of the Jackets, can you really begrudge us one competent young NHL player?

 

[BluejacketNut]

Best thing about him is he's showing a scoring touch

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I agree, I think $6.7M is an easy match. Need to take this thing up to $8.4M to get any traction...at that point, is it still an easy decision?

You mean, is it an easy decision for any team to offer Ryan Johansen a contract valued at $8.4 million? I suppose we could engage in a discussion on that topic. While we're at it, why don't we discuss something else totally realistic like "Paul McCartney offers me all of his worldly possessions. Would Oprah match?"

 

[blahblah]

As far as salary is concerned, rumor is the cap is going up to $75M. Say RJ gets $8.4M, that leaves $6.6M to sign Chris Tanev, Mike Santorelli, and a couple fourth liners/spares. Certainly doable...even easier if David Booth is a compliance buy-out, which is expected. The Canucks don't have a notable RFA/UFA coming up until 2016-17.

Please stop this conversation, it's on the other side of fantasy on the side of ridiculous. So you think someone is going to offer sheet Umberger for 8.4 million? :p

It will never get to the point that an offer sheet comes into play. Why are you going down this route of insanity?

I killed my post once, but go poach some other teams players for a while.

Ugh.

Oh, Vanek for 10+ mil? lol.

 

[fox2usp]

Please stop this conversation, it's on the other side of fantasy on the side of ridiculous. So you think someone is going to offer sheet Umberger for 8.4 million? :p

It will never get to the point that an offer sheet comes into play. Why are you going down this route of insanity?

I killed my post once, but go poach some other teams players for a while.

Ugh.

Oh, Vanek for 10+ mil? lol.

I think "RJ" = Ryan Johansen, not Umberberger, but still ridiculous.

 

[bizzz*]

This topic pisses me off. It's like you get a puppy, raise him, invest your time and soul, it becomes your family member and then someone is trying to poach it out of your house.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I think "RJ" = Ryan Johansen, not Umberberger, but still ridiculous.

I think it's possible blah is trying to make a point about clarity of nicknames.

 

[blahblah]

I think "RJ" = Ryan Johansen, not Umberberger, but still ridiculous.

Did you notice the :p ?

 

[cslebn]

That's general thinking but honestly, the Flyers just offered Shea Weber $20M in one season that only 42 games got played in. Stealing a talent is worth a lot to a GM and with the cap going up, $8.4M is the equivalent of $5.6M from the year that Vanek got a $7.1M offer-sheet and the year after with the cap at $85M it will be the equivalent of $5M.

Just to pick a bit more but the Flyers really aren't a good example. You should never use extremes to symbolism the norm (and Yes Snyder is nuts).

 

[604]

Please stop this conversation, it's on the other side of fantasy on the side of ridiculous. So you think someone is going to offer sheet Umberger for 8.4 million? :p

It will never get to the point that an offer sheet comes into play. Why are you going down this route of insanity?

I killed my post once, but go poach some other teams players for a while.

Ugh.

Oh, Vanek for 10+ mil? lol.

Okay, topic over.

No problem.

This topic pisses me off. It's like you get a puppy, raise him, invest your time and soul, it becomes your family member and then someone is trying to poach it out of your house.

I think that's what makes Johnasen so valuable...not the hurt it causes but the fact that it often takes so long for a player like him to develop and a lot of times you are hoping to draft a guy like him, even with a top 10 pick, and it often doesn't turn out.

 

[blahblah]

I think that's what makes Johnasen so valuable...not the hurt it causes but the fact that it often takes so long for a player like him to develop and a lot of times you are hoping to draft a guy like him, even with a top 10 pick, and it often doesn't turn out.

Yeah, I know. A little over 100 games. While there is no guarantee of future results, I wouldn't say we've been waiting all that long.

What makes Johansen, potentially, so valuable is his ability to play in all three zones as well as all roles (5 on 5, PK, PP). All this while doing it against the other teams top line. Not because he seems to have actually worked out and was worth the development time.

I said a while ago, this isn't Stamkos we are dealing with here. I don't think we have a 50 goal scorer here. However, we have a legit, potential, top line center. More than we've had in the past. Up to him to put it together over the course of an entire season.