Ryan Johansen

[Crede777]

Johansen actually mentioned this over the summer, he said he's not modeling his game after Thornton so much as Getzlaf.

Hopefully he doesn't also try to mimic Getz's personality.

I think 17-19-13 earned another night together. It will be interesting to see what happens when Horton comes in. Right now it seems that Dubinsky will revert to center and we will have to go with 17, 19, 42, and 55/24 down the middle unless Jenner steps up. It isn't something we really need, but could adding a legit 3rd line center be good for Johansen's development? A Malhotra type player, I mean. Or should we just wait and let the young guys like Jenner and Chaput develop?

 

[Bronz]

Dubinsky - Johansen - Atkinson : were dynamite.

If Johansen's back to centering Umberger and X third liner after last night then I really don't know what to think.

 

[604]

I'm a Canucks fan and I was hoping you guys could settle something for me (having a discussion with friends at the bar and a bit of a discussion on the Canucks board):

If the Canucks were to offer Ryan Johansen the following offer-sheets this off-season would CBJ match:

-$5.886M x 3 years (compensation is 1+ 3rd)
-$6.5M x 3 years (compensation is a 1st + 2nd + 3rd)
-$7.0M x 3 years (comepsnation is a 1st + 2nd + 3rd)
-$7.5M x 3 years (compensation is 1st + 2nd + 3rd)
-$7.848M x 3 years (comepnsation is 1st + 2nd + 3rd)
-$9.81M x 7 years (compensation is 2 x 1st + 2nd + 3rd)

Here is a summary of the discussions I've had:

-This all assumes RJ finishes at about what he's on pace for, or a little better: ~ 30 goals and 60-70 points
-RJ is a local guy (to Vancouver) who looks like he's developing into a superstar.
-If RJ signs in VAN, the Canucks can afford to lose picks because they don't have many roster places to fill
-RJ is in no way worth even close to $7M (a point I disagree with...I think the way he's going, he might be worth $7M next season, especially with the cap rising)
-VAN's only RFA this year that they would care about losing is Tanev, and the team makes a lot of money so blow back is not a huge concern
-CBJ seems to be stuggling at the gate
-CBJ is clearing $7.5M of cap space with Gaborik coming off the books
-CBJ seems to have a log of players in the $3M-$5M range who are not really getting the job done
-CBJ is an up and coming team who are close while VAN is a declining team, would RJ even move if given the chance (I'd say $7M would likely cause me to move)
-People rarely give offersheets
-VAN is not really in a position to offer a trade since they don't have anyone who CBJ would want that they could afford to give up unless CBJ would want picks + prospects (and Horvat would not be made avaialble...would rather offer-sheet than trade him)
-The salary cap looks like it's going to go from $64.3M this year to $75M next year and $85M the year after that
-CBJ has one of the highest payrolls in the league
-VAN as a team is aging out so their picks might not be as late as they have been in the past five years.
-Nobody should be giving up picks in the 2015 draft because it looks amazing.

Interested in hearing your guys' thoughts.

 

[Sore Loser]

I don't think there's any way, with the way Ryan Johansen is playing, that he heads into the offseason without a contract. Should this happen, then I would have to think that the offer sheet would have to be monumental for the CBJ to allow him to be snatched away.

Simple answer: No, you aren't going to get him.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

We would match. We would have the space, and we're not going to let a future #1 go for picks. Win now

 

[604]

We would match. We would have the space, and we're not going to let a future #1 go for picks. Win now

So you match all the way up to $9.810 million (the boarder for 2 x 1st + 2nd + 3rd compensation)? I just wanted to confirm and if confirmed, I think it makes a lot of sense. If I was a CBJ fan, I would expect them to match too (other VAN fans are telling me that nobody would offer RJ $7M and there's no way CBJ would match if it was offered).

 

[EspenK]

I don't think Vancouver offers or Jackets match 9 million (or 8 or 7) based on one year of solid performance and potential. Tops might be the 6 that the Oiler wunderkind have received. But I see Jarmo doing 2 year deal in a reasonable $ amount or a 4 if push comes to shove.

 

[Dr. Fire]

No way Johan goes anywhere. If everything stays the same, I look for Gaborik to be dealt at the dead-line, and Johan signed before the end of the season.

The only way that changes is if Gaborik returns from his current injury, stays healthy, lights it up, and the CBJ are in the play-off race. In that case, they keep Gabby, but still resign Johan.

 

[Bobcat110]

So you match all the way up to $9.810 million (the boarder for 2 x 1st + 2nd + 3rd compensation)? I just wanted to confirm and if confirmed, I think it makes a lot of sense. If I was a CBJ fan, I would expect them to match too (other VAN fans are telling me that nobody would offer RJ $7M and there's no way CBJ would match if it was offered).

Where are you finding these compensation numbers for offer sheets? The new CBA would've had to greatly reduced the compensation and I can't locate any source with your numbers. I guess it could make sense that new CBA reduced draft pick compensation due to the reduction on term (years) permitted on contracts, which means the team making offer sheet has less time to recoup the loss of their picks. But, from what I've seen it's:

Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd

Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 - Two 1st round Picks, 2nd, 3rd

Over $8,410,976 - Four 1st Round Picks

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=67897897&postcount=8

I'm liking RyJo's game, but not sure how he makes the jump to that kind of dough or draws the kind of offer sheet you're throwing out there. Stamkos didn't get any offer sheets. If I were a GM that would ever do an offer sheet, I would have done it on Stamkos. Stamkos eventually resigned with Tampa for $7.5M x 5 years. How could no GM throw out $8.5M x 7 years on an offer sheet to Stamkos, but RyJo draws interest at $9.8M per year? RyJo was a Healthy Scratch in an AHL game barely 6 months ago.

Using the comps I've seen, I'd let him go at the $8.4M level and take the 4 1st rounders. At the $6.7M level would probably favor keeping him if he's finishes season in 70 point range.

 

[Nanabijou]

Here's probably the most important snippet from your discussion...

People rarely give offersheets

The official line from the Blue Jackets would be that they would match any offer. I think all of those contracts would be an over-payment at this point, although I hope he is headed in that direction. I think the $6 million contracts the Oilers are giving out like candy were crazy and I hope Joey's is for less AAV and shorter term than theirs.

So, the short answer is that I would be pissed off at the offer sheet, not only because it's a poaching attempt on a key Blue Jacket player, but it starts the ball rolling again on artificially inflated contracts again. I know it's within the rules, but I'd still be pissed off.

All that said, I wouldn't trade Joey for Vancouver's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. So if I was GM, I'd curse Vancouver profusely, then sign Joey to a matching contract and explore if there is a market for him that leads for a better haul than a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

 

[blahblah]

Seriously?

Let's just sum this up the way that it should be. Isn't poaching illegal?

Ugh.

 

[Bobcat110]

Seriously?

First, I don't care how good the 2015 draft is as the pick isn't going to be top 10. Second, your team isn't going to do it. Third, this isn't a proposal (as it was first classified). Fourth, I have no idea what our GM would do. Lastly, he's not going to get an offer sheet anywhere north of 5 million. He's improving, but this isn't Stamkos we're dealing with here.

For some reason, this poaching garbage kind of got on my nerves after a nice night of Jackets hockey. Go sniff around some other teams up and comers. There is no reason that the Jackets would want to see him go - he's a big reason we are "up and comers" (assuming that ends up being true). Do you really think for a second they wouldn't match unless Johansen (not RJ - that is another player on the Jackets) wanted out? We could certainly trade his rights for something better than a few mid to late round first round picks. You know, like a good prospect or two and a roster player along and maybe a first as well?

If your team off sheeted, I would personally want our GM to offer sheet any of your damn decent prospects to slightly over market from now to the end of time. You like to ride the cap? We'll help you with your own players to get there sooner.

Ugh.

LOL...but to be fair he did qualify that he was "having a discussion with friends at the bar " So they were just putting some moves on RyJo before putting them on the dance floor

Maybe tonite's Pub crawl will result in a sweeter deal and they'll offer us Luongo for Ryan Murray...Only fair for Ryan Murray, since he played in the shadows of Vancouver too and it helps the CBJ since we've lost Bob for a month.

 

[cydawg]

So you match all the way up to $9.810 million (the boarder for 2 x 1st + 2nd + 3rd compensation)?

The Jackets would match up to a reasonable amount for Johansen. As to what that reasonable amount is specifically, I can't speak to that right now. If he continues his high level of play, IMO, he'll probably get a "bridge" contract somewhere between $3 million and $4 million. But if the Canucks offered around $5 million, I'd bet they'd match.

That said, if the Canucks are dumb enough to make Johansen one of the highest paid players in the league after what would be 1 60ish point season, the Jackets would absolutely not match that. And as pointed out, the compensation is 4 1st round picks.

 

[Samkow]

Honestly DJOpus, are you serious? Johansen's good. He's not 7.5 million good nor am I sure he'll ever be.

Regarding the hypothetical amount, I'd take the 2 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and laugh all the way to the draft. Rising cap or not, the good teams can't afford to pay Johansen 7.5 million and the bad teams will give up great value in draft picks for him.

The best Johansen can hope for is a Hall/Nugent-Hopkins type contract. Even then, that's a bit of an overpayment. But we're probably looking at a bridge contract at about 4-5 million per season.

 

[InauguralCBJFan]

So you match all the way up to $9.810 million (the boarder for 2 x 1st + 2nd + 3rd compensation)? I just wanted to confirm and if confirmed, I think it makes a lot of sense. If I was a CBJ fan, I would expect them to match too (other VAN fans are telling me that nobody would offer RJ $7M and there's no way CBJ would match if it was offered).

Ryan Johansen isn't worth 7 million. (Gaborik makes 7.5 after a career of scoring. 7 30+ goal seasons, 3 40+ goal seasons, 336-338-674 in 769 GP) Johansen projects to be a star, but he's not even close to this pace.

Ryan Johansen isn't worth $5 million, but we would likely match.

 

[major major]

I'm hoping we get a long term deal for Johansen so we can stop having conversations like this. I think he's worth $6million and I'd go long term on that as soon as possible.

 

[Nanabijou]

I'm hoping we get a long term deal for Johansen so we can stop having conversations like this. I think he's worth $6million and I'd go long term on that as soon as possible.

Settle down Howson, let's use the current rules regarding RFA's to our benefit and come up with a reasonable bridge contract. He'll cash in soon enough if he continues this trajectory, but I'd rather have him keep striving for that trajectory even if it costs the CBJ a little more on the backend. I'm thinking a Matt Duchene/PK Subban type of bridge contract.

 

[major major]

Settle down Howson, let's use the current rules regarding RFA's to our benefit and come up with a reasonable bridge contract. He'll cash in soon enough if he continues this trajectory, but I'd rather have him keep striving for that trajectory even if it costs the CBJ a little more on the backend. I'm thinking a Matt Duchene/PK Subban type of bridge contract.

My reasoning is that I'm guessing a bridge contract will cost us a lot more than a little on the backend. Subban is a bad example for you because Montreal is going to lose a fortune on the backend. I'm guessing Bergevin could have had Subban for $5 million on a long term deal if he did that instead of the bridge, now he'll have to pay him $7-8million for a long time to come.

 

[Nanabijou]

My reasoning is that I'm guessing a bridge contract will cost us a lot more than a little on the backend. Subban is a bad example for you because Montreal is going to lose a fortune on the backend. I'm guessing Bergevin could have had Subban for $5 million on a long term deal if he did that instead of the bridge, now he'll have to pay him $7-8million for a long time to come.

I understand the thinking of how it can work out better $-wise, but I just don't think it's necessary with the current CBA to give out 'elite-level' contracts that are almost entirely based on 'potential'. I think it sets a bad precedent both across the NHL and within a given team come contract negotiations. Unless they are a generational talent, I think it's good that 22-year olds have to prove themselves as a safe bet before cashing in on long-term 8-figure deals.

I still completely agree with Montreal's approach with Subban compared to Edmonton's approach with Nugent-Hopkins even if it costs them more on the back-end. Maybe if Bergevin had committed $5 million to Subban long-term earlier, he wouldn't have a Norris winner on his team right now.

 

[604]

Where are you finding these compensation numbers for offer sheets? The new CBA would've had to greatly reduced the compensation and I can't locate any source with your numbers. I guess it could make sense that new CBA reduced draft pick compensation due to the reduction on term (years) permitted on contracts, which means the team making offer sheet has less time to recoup the loss of their picks. But, from what I've seen it's:

Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd

Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 - Two 1st round Picks, 2nd, 3rd

Over $8,410,976 - Four 1st Round Picks

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=67897897&postcount=8

I'm liking RyJo's game, but not sure how he makes the jump to that kind of dough or draws the kind of offer sheet you're throwing out there. Stamkos didn't get any offer sheets. If I were a GM that would ever do an offer sheet, I would have done it on Stamkos. Stamkos eventually resigned with Tampa for $7.5M x 5 years. How could no GM throw out $8.5M x 7 years on an offer sheet to Stamkos, but RyJo draws interest at $9.8M per year? RyJo was a Healthy Scratch in an AHL game barely 6 months ago.

Using the comps I've seen, I'd let him go at the $8.4M level and take the 4 1st rounders. At the $6.7M level would probably favor keeping him if he's finishes season in 70 point range.

Yeah sorry, didn't realize compensation was frozen for two years as it previously used to rise with the cap.

Fixing for my screwup, I'd suggest as a Canucks fan I'd be happy if the team tried to poach at $6.7m.

Really cap wise CBJ could afford to match but would they want to?

The reason I'd want the Canucks to do it is because he fills an organizational need and is a local guy... and honestly I think big inflation is coming and you might be able to steal a guy before other teams owners and GMs adjust.

 

[Nanabijou]

Yeah sorry, didn't realize compensation was frozen for two years as it previously used to rise with the cap.

Fixing for my screwup, I'd suggest as a Canucks fan I'd be happy if the team tried to poach at $6.7m.

Really cap wise CBJ could afford to match but would they want to?

The reason I'd want the Canucks to do it is because he fills an organizational need and is a local guy... and honestly I think big inflation is coming and you might be able to steal a guy before other teams owners and GMs adjust.

With the cap going up, I'd be very surprised to see any successful offer sheets next year. This was the year that offer sheets could really have been used against a team up against the cap and we still didn't really see it.

 

[Sore Loser]

With the cap going up, I'd be very surprised to see any successful offer sheets next year. This was the year that offer sheets could really have been used against a team up against the cap and we still didn't really see it.

I agree. No to mention, the Canucks already have over $60m committed to 16 players next year. Could they really, honestly afford to drop nearly $7m on a guy that has had one breakout year ... even with the cap going up? They will need to get another 6 or 7 guys at best under that umbrella; signing a guy to a contract higher than your two star players might not be such a great idea in that scenario.

This is all hogwash. It will never happen ... not for the Canucks. You want Johansen? Send us Kesler and some other pieces ... Johansen is a younger version of Kesler.

 

[cbjfaninmo]

This is all hogwash.

This.

 

[Xoggz22]

So you match all the way up to $9.810 million (the boarder for 2 x 1st + 2nd + 3rd compensation)? I just wanted to confirm and if confirmed, I think it makes a lot of sense. If I was a CBJ fan, I would expect them to match too (other VAN fans are telling me that nobody would offer RJ $7M and there's no way CBJ would match if it was offered).

No, they wouldn't match because no team in their right mind would make an offer to a player after his rookie contract like that. It's ludicrous to even think about because we're talking Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin money and as much as I like Johansen he isn't in that league nor will he likely ever be.

 

[EspenK]

At 6.7 I think we match. If you'd match at 6 I don't think 700k makes any diff. As the cap rises, unfortunately guys are going to make more.