A few stats for thought:
1) Johansen's 1.32 goals per 60 minutes of even strength play was tied for 5th among ALL NHL players last year. It was a rate more than 2.25 times that (0.59) of the laughable Stepan "comp"
2) Johansen was 11th in goal in the NHL last year
3) Johansen's 63 points were 24% more than the next leading Jacket had (Wiz-51)
4) His 63 points were 26% greater than the Jackets 2nd leader forward scorer (Dubi-50).
5) His 63 points were 58% more than the 3rd leading Jackets forward (Cam-40).
Digest these. He scored 58% more points than the 3rd leading forward and he didn't play with either #2 or #3. The kid is the best forward on this team by such a huge margin that it's not funny.
If anyone thinks that Joey has zero leverage because of the CBA, they are really fooling themselves.
The Jackets are most likely not a playoff team without Johansen.
Since you found it important to post the same thing on two boards, I thought it makes good sense to use the same post to show how flawed this post is.
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=89741075&postcount=622
Listing off stats is fine, but in the end you have to compare them to something. Let me do that for you.
Originally Posted by Cyclones Rock View Post
Ryan Johansen was tied for 5th in the NHL in goals scored per 60 minutes at even strength (1.32). Stepan, who is bandied about as a comparable player was at .59 goals per 60 min. ES.
Almost true. He was tied for 7th in goals scored per 60 minutes at even strength. Gustav Nyquist ($0.950 million) was first in that category. Two other players on RFA contracts finished above Johansen in this category: (1) Max Pac ($4.5 million AAV for 6 years); and (2) Jamie Benn ($5.25 million AAV for 5 years).
Ryan Johansen was tied for 11th in the NHL in goals scored with 33.
Four players on RFA contracts tied or outscored Johansen: (1) Max Pac ($4.5 million AAV for 6 years); (2) Jamie Benn ($5.25 million AAV for 5 years); (3) Tyler Seguin ($5.75 million AAV for 6 years); and (4) Jeff Skinner ($5.73 million AAV for 6 years).
On his own team, Johansen's 63 points were 24% higher than the next leading Jacket point getter (Wizniewski-51 points).
Among Jackets forwards, Johansen's 63 points were 26% higher than the next leading scoring forward (Dubinski-50 points) and a whopping 58% more than the Jackets 3rd leading scorer (Cam Atkinson-40).
He did outperform other Jackets players. No doubt about that. But here are at least eight players on RFA contracts who outperformed Johansen's points:
1. Tyler Seguin by 33% in 2 less games. ($5.75M / 6)
2. Taylor Hall by 27% in 7 less games. ($6M / 7)
3. Jamie Benn [Captain] by 25% in 1 less game. ($5.25M / 5)
4. Matt Duchene by 11% in 11 less games. ($6M / 5 after a $3.5M / 2 bridge)
5. John Tavares [Captain] by 5% in 23 less games. ($5.5M / 6)
6. Jordan Eberle by 3% in 2 less games. ($6M / 6)
7. Gabriel Landeskog [Captain] by 3% in 1 less game. ($5.57 / 7)
8. Ryan O'Reilly by 2% in 2 less games. ($6M / 2 after a $5M / 2 offer sheet forced a $6.5M QO)
The Jackets management could have sewn this up early by just offering the same bridge deal that they gave Sergei Bobrovski (roughly $11 million over 2 years) after he won the Vezina in the lockout season.
The Vezina trophy is awarded to the goaltender "adjudged to be the best at his position." Johansen had one good year after being benched in the AHL, but he came nowhere close to being the best center in the NHL. For crying out loud, there were two forwards from his own draft class that were better. The top point getter outscored Johansen by 65% and the top goal scorer outscored him by 55%. You're response to this will, I'm sure, be that goaltenders are compensated differently. I agree so stick to his actual comparable players.
Johansen finally broke out last year. Those insistent on the "only one good season" point of view, are as silly as someone who would judge a college quarterback on a poor freshman season instead of his standout junior year. Players take time to develop physically and to the pace of play in the NHL. It took Johansen two very painful years to get there, but he's fully acclimated. Last season is the only relevant season to use for projecting future performance.
I think this is ********. Until you see consistent performance across years, you cannot be sure he will maintain his level of play or take the next step. This leads to a considerable amount of risk that you must account for when offering longterm deals. But even assuming his one year is equivalent to showing three solid years out of junior, he has no basis to call an offer comparable to John Tavares' or Jamie Benn's deals an insult or unreasonable. John Tavares' third year (after actually being able to show continuous progress at the NHL level) whooped Johansen's third, and only productive, year. Moreover, he has nowhere near the pedigree of a guy like Tavares.
I think this is going to end in a divorce (trade). Hate to say it but it looks like the most likely resolution. The team isn't going to budge.
I tend to agree with you. I don't know whether there is a "bad guy" in this but in the end, I think there is a good chance Johansen ends up on another team by the trade deadline.
