Ryan Johansen II (contract etc)

[cslebn]

Each of the players bolded had their breakout season a year earlier than Johansen and only 1 of them had more goals and only 4 of them had more points (3 of them #1 overall picks). None of these players has regressed from their year 2 breakout numbers as far as I know. I would argue that it isn't material that Johansen's breakout happened in his 3rd year and that his numbers 33g 30a fit very comfortably with this group. I would see no compelling reason to believe that his production growth wouldn't mirror this group.

Johansen played well enough to not only earn the #1 center position for the Jackets, but be the projected long term #1 center for the CBJ. I would hazard a guess that Florida would have seriously considered trading their #1 overall pick straight up this past year for Johansen. He's achieved the status that one should in order to be given a long term deal.

The only card that the bridge camp is holding is that the breakout season happened in season 3 rather than season 2. This card is also mitigated by the fact the Johansen's year 2 was in a lockout shortened season. The fact that Johansen broke out at age 21 as opposed to 19 or 20 appears to me to be a rounding error which shouldn't be the determining factor for this contract. He's a bonafide #1 two way center who just scored the 11th most goals in the NHL. Last season was not a fluke and the Jackets know this. He's going to be the Jackets #1C for the foreseeable future, imo. His production with a healthy Horton, Hartnell and/or Foligno, with a more experienced Murray on the power play, and with an added year of experience should be projected to rise, not decline.

If anyone believes that Johansen will not be the #1 center on the CBJ in 3 years, then I can understand their "bridge" position. If not, then I can't understand why one wouldn't want to lock up their#1 center to a long term deal and avoid an even costlier contract and/or the joy of arbitration two years down the road. Also, a bridge deal does not guarantee a long term Jackets relationship with Johansen. A 6 year deal accomplishes that.

I think this first paragraph is what this really comes down to for whether someone wants a bridge or not. No one regressed on that list but it remains possible. It's just a question was last year good enough simply put to allay the fears of a false positive.

I'd venture everyone here thinks he's a 1c now. But, that's not always how the market works. I know there was another thread elsewhere discussing how players often get their big contract after their prime and best years. Basically you get paid for what you've done and not will do. That would be another reason JK is pushing the bridge contract.

Definitely a good debate going though. I really don't think we can go wrong so long as Joey is here for at least 8 more years. Anything else and then I would balk.

 

[BluejacketNut]

My concerns are that he does get the bridge and then does live up to it, and by the time he's a UFA, he says 'later' and is gone. You can say that you sign him longer after the bridge, but thats assuming he agree's, he may just say 'well you didnt believe in me, longest I will sign for is till im a UFA' and then we either lose him, or pay max to keep him.

The one thing I was noticing in the playoff replays is he has the 1 skill you cant teach....size. At 6'3 220+lbs as a 21 year old, he may end up being a beast, something we dont want to lose.

 

[Jackets16]

he may just say 'well you didnt believe in me, longest I will sign for is till im a UFA' and then we either lose him, or pay max to keep him.

Or trade him for a big return.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I think this first paragraph is what this really comes down to for whether someone wants a bridge or not. No one regressed on that list but it remains possible. It's just a question was last year good enough simply put to allay the fears of a false positive.

I'd venture everyone here thinks he's a 1c now. But, that's not always how the market works. I know there was another thread elsewhere discussing how players often get their big contract after their prime and best years. Basically you get paid for what you've done and not will do. That would be another reason JK is pushing the bridge contract.

Definitely a good debate going though. I really don't think we can go wrong so long as Joey is here for at least 8 more years. Anything else and then I would balk.

It's always a possibility that regression occurs. Should it happen in Johansen's case, what would be the worst downside for the CBJ?

If Johansen is signed to a Skinner-like deal, 6 years $35 million, and then averages 20-25 goals and 25 assists over the next 2 seasons, then what? Barring no major injury, he'd still be only 23 years old and have 4 years left on his deal. His size and his two way ability would still have a lot of allure and he would be a very tradeable commodity. Johansen would still be viewed as a #2C, at the very least, by most teams and the Jackets could get decent assets in return and would have overpaid a player by a few million per year for two years.

Just for comparison sake, Nathan Horton has $31.8 million and 6 years left on his deal. Should he not return to form this season, the Jackets likely will have an unmoveable player on their hands.

The risk in signing an older free agent is far greater than any incurred by signing Johansen to a long term deal. If the Jackets risk aversion is so high that signing a 21 year old 4th overall pick whose own coach continually states "he doesn't know how good he can be" on the post game shows and they have no problems signing a player who underwent shoulder surgery with no guarantee that he would fully recuperate, then the Jackets have very unusual risk assessment criterion.

I've been wondering about this. Had Jarmo drafted Johansen, I would suspect that a long term deal would already have been inked. I don't think former GM Howson would have had any issue signing him long term. I would think that last season's stellar performance would have been ample confirmation that the right draft choice had been made and that a long term deal would be in the best interests of the CBJ.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I
The risk in signing an older free agent is far greater than any incurred by signing Johansen to a long term deal. If the Jackets risk aversion is so high that signing a 21 year old 4th overall pick whose own coach continually states "he doesn't know how good he can be" on the post game shows and they have no problems signing a player who underwent shoulder surgery with no guarantee that he would fully recuperate, then the Jackets have very unusual risk assessment criterion.

I'm not opposed to a long-term deal at this time - totally comfortable with Johansen. But this as evidence is flawed, IMO. Part of the issue with him not knowing "how good he can be" is that he never, even with ample prodding and coaching, realizes it and doesn't put in the work required to achieve it. I read as much concern as confidence in that quote.

 

[cslebn]

is it possible they plan to use contracts as a motivation for Joey?

 

[FreeBoomer61]

is it possible they plan to use contracts as a motivation for Joey?

I'm pretty sure that is the whole goal of the bridge contract from the CBJ's point of view...They fear that if they pony up now for big term and money, he will lose motivation to continue to develop and improve.

 

[db2011]

I'm pretty sure that is the whole goal of the bridge contract from the CBJ's point of view...They fear that if they pony up now for big term and money, he will lose motivation to continue to develop and improve.

I actually do worry about this. There isn't a ton of evidence, but his comments (and the AHL thing) give me pause about some of his make up. Not saying he's a bad kid at all, not enough to say, but you can be a "good guy" and still go soft once the contract is signed. See RJ Umberger. With Joey, the talent is there, it's the attitude that remains an unfinished picture.

Still, it's a risk you take, and you trust in the rest of the room and the environment you've created (or inherited) to see that doesn't happen to Joey, and you pay him. If Jarmo is going to drive a hard bargain and insist on bridge contracts for any RFA ever, regardless of anything like performance, well that is about as silly as it gets. It's small-time, and we have a big-time player in Johansen and should proceed accordingly.

By the way, thoroughly enjoyed reading the posts on the previous page. An absolute clinic in constructive posting that the Boll thread could use some of

 

[pete goegan]

...If Jarmo is going to drive a hard bargain and insist on bridge contracts for any RFA ever, regardless of anything like performance, well that is about as silly as it gets...

What if he plans to only insist on bridge contracts for any RFA who only produces good numbers in the third year of his ELC?

 

[WannabeFinn]

I think what they meant by "doesn't know how good he can be" is that, Joey knows he can be good and that he needs to put the effort in to get to that level.. but if he puts in enough effort, he can be even better. Let's say, for the sake of this example, Joey believes he can be a ~75 point guy in this league. JD believes he can be a ~90 point guy. Believing you can be a 75 point guy is not bad at all. It's a very lofty goal for many, many players. Don't look at it as "well Joey's either gonna be amazing, or he won't even get close because he doesn't know he can be amazing". Look at it as "wow, this kid is great.. but he's gonna be even greater with more work and maturation".

I wouldn't fault Joey anyways if he didn't actually know his potential. Lots of kids don't know/won't know/never knew their true potential. But you've gotta actualize your potential to its fullest extent to see results, whether you realize how high your ceiling is or not.

 

[db2011]

What if he plans to only insist on bridge contracts for any RFA who only produces good numbers in the third year of his ELC?

Depends on the good numbers you're referencing. If they wind being the best numbers on a playoff team, Jarmo's insistence could be seen as calcifying into a strict policy which I think would wind up being out of touch. I wonder what more if anything Joey could have accomplished this year to be treated any differently.

 

[pete goegan]

Depends on the good numbers you're referencing. If they wind being the best numbers on a playoff team, Jarmo's insistence could be seen as calcifying into a strict policy which I think would wind up being out of touch. I wonder what more if anything Joey could have accomplished this year to be treated any differently.

I understand your position and don't discount it, at all. You're right - if it becomes a strict policy, it could be seen as out of touch. Since Jarmo has only been in charge a short time, I don't have enough evidence to determine that, yet. I haven't seen enough, to this point, to raise doubts about JK and JD and their ability to gauge their players' attitudes, abilities, and potential (despite the Boll contract!). I think the team's position on Johansen's contract can't solely be based on his successful third season, but must be shaped by his total performance, to date. "One out of three," for me, doesn't earn long-term big bucks. I know others feel differently.

To answer your last question: "Nothing." Unless he could have gone back and altered the preceding two years, I guess.

 

[Metalcommand]

I think what they meant by "doesn't know how good he can be" is that, Joey knows he can be good and that he needs to put the effort in to get to that level.. but if he puts in enough effort, he can be even better. Let's say, for the sake of this example, Joey believes he can be a ~75 point guy in this league. JD believes he can be a ~90 point guy. Believing you can be a 75 point guy is not bad at all. It's a very lofty goal for many, many players. Don't look at it as "well Joey's either gonna be amazing, or he won't even get close because he doesn't know he can be amazing". Look at it as "wow, this kid is great.. but he's gonna be even greater with more work and maturation".

I wouldn't fault Joey anyways if he didn't actually know his potential. Lots of kids don't know/won't know/never knew their true potential. But you've gotta actualize your potential to its fullest extent to see results, whether you realize how high your ceiling is or not.

In todays league 90 point guy means you're TOP-5 or top-3 forward. No one belives Johansen is gonna be that.

 

[db2011]

I understand your position and don't discount it, at all. You're right - if it becomes a strict policy, it could be seen as out of touch. Since Jarmo has only been in charge a short time, I don't have enough evidence to determine that, yet. I haven't seen enough, to this point, to raise doubts about JK and JD and their ability to gauge their players' attitudes, abilities, and potential (despite the Boll contract!). I think the team's position on Johansen's contract can't solely be based on his successful third season, but must be shaped by his total performance, to date. "One out of three," for me, doesn't earn long-term big bucks. I know others feel differently.

To answer your last question: "Nothing." Unless he could have gone back and altered the preceding two years, I guess.

That's what I'm thinking, too- that it was foreordained that Joey wasn't going to be considered for a long term deal based on the 1 of out 3 algebra.

Like you say, it's early in JK's tenure to really believe we know what his approach would be in a given situation, and maybe another guy comes along who plays well enough to be rewarded with a long deal after his entry deal. It seems this particular contract situation with Joey screams just that, but it looks like Joey's camp is going to go ahead with the bridge anyway.

I understand the bridge position, certainly. If nothing else, it's fiscally responsible. In any given RFA situation, the bridge has a lot to recommend itself. But each particular negotiation is a tree, and I'm concerned about the forest.

 

[pete goegan]

...But each particular negotiation is a tree, and I'm concerned about the forest.

That a good way to put it.

 

[WannabeFinn]

In todays league 90 point guy means you're TOP-5 or top-3 forward. No one belives Johansen is gonna be that.

It said that those numbers were used for the sake of making an example. Did you not see that part?

 

[Samkow]

If Johansen's agent has any courage, he'll look at the Brass contract and go back to demanding more years.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

If Johansen's agent has any courage, he'll look at the Brass contract and go back to demanding more years.

Brassard is 26 and already had his bridge contract he signed with the CBJ. I wouldn't use him as a comparison. In fact his deal he signed at roughly Johansen's age was a 3.2 cap hit.

In fact, more power to the Rangers to be stupid enough to pay a 5 million cap hit to someone who has never broke 50 points in his career. I also don't get this statement I read in an article about Brassard. "Per previous reports, Brassard was seeking an arbitration award of $4.95 million, with the Rangers countering at $3.825."

They wouldn't pay him 4.95 for 1 or 2 years but they are willing to pay him 5 for 5 years?

 

[MFRONE]

Brassard is 26 and already had his bridge contract he signed with the CBJ. I wouldn't use him as a comparison. In fact his deal he signed at roughly Johansen's age was a 3.2 cap hit.

In fact, more power to the Rangers to be stupid enough to pay a 5 million cap hit to someone who has never broke 50 points in his career. I also don't get this statement I read in an article about Brassard. "Per previous reports, Brassard was seeking an arbitration award of $4.95 million, with the Rangers countering at $3.825."

They wouldn't pay him 4.95 for 1 or 2 years but they are willing to pay him 5 for 5 years?

How do you figure that he's not a comparison? Both are centers and both are RFAs.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

How do you figure that he's not a comparison? Both are centers and both are RFAs.

This is Brassard's 3rd contract. He is 1 year from UFA. His "bridge deal" was the one he signed 4 years ago with the CBJ

 

[WannabeFinn]

Brassard is 26 and already had his bridge contract he signed with the CBJ. I wouldn't use him as a comparison. In fact his deal he signed at roughly Johansen's age was a 3.2 cap hit.

In fact, more power to the Rangers to be stupid enough to pay a 5 million cap hit to someone who has never broke 50 points in his career. I also don't get this statement I read in an article about Brassard. "Per previous reports, Brassard was seeking an arbitration award of $4.95 million, with the Rangers countering at $3.825."

They wouldn't pay him 4.95 for 1 or 2 years but they are willing to pay him 5 for 5 years?

They went up to 5 to buy some of his UFA years.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

They went up to 5 to buy some of his UFA years.

So if they really wanted him for that long, why didn't they negotiate to that point earlier than the verge of arbitration.

It seems to me they initially wanted him shorter term for less money to prove he can score more than 45 points in a season. They then decided to cave before arbitration and gave Brassard exactly what he wanted. If that report is true he was only asking 4.95, Brassard won that negotiation and didn't give up a thing. It sounds like they are so desperate for a center and nobody is available right now that they had no choice but to lock up Brassard.

I think he'll end up being traded with salary retained within 2 years, 3 tops.

 

[WannabeFinn]

So if they really wanted him for that long, why didn't they negotiate to that point earlier than the verge of arbitration.

It seems to me they initially wanted him shorter term for less money to prove he can score more than 45 points in a season. They then decided to cave before arbitration and gave Brassard exactly what he wanted. If that report is true he was only asking 4.95, Brassard won that negotiation and didn't give up a thing. It sounds like they are so desperate for a center and nobody is available right now that they had no choice but to lock up Brassard.

I think he'll end up being traded with salary retained within 2 years, 3 tops.

Yeah, that's essentially what happened. Brassard clearly beat them in the negotiations. They really had no other options. Losing Richards meant they really had Stepan and then.... ??? aside from Brassard. He had to get signed if they wanted to be competitive this year.

 

[FreeBoomer61]

It's been over a week since we have heard any developments in contract talks between Joey's camp and management. I'm really surprised something hasn't happened, as I thought a deal would be pounded out by the end of the month after Porty's report of progress.

 

[jordanwill21]

I agree. I know a deal will get done eventually but i am worried about the real future of johansen and the blue jackets. Just really wish i knew what the bid deal is about, the bridge got sent last week (which is what management wanted) and still no deal. I really think these delayed negotiations and tactics could really bite the organsization in the ass come next contract signing!!!