I don't think your scenario makes sense because we wouldn't let him walk on a low ball offer. And if it was a decent long term offer we would match.
If he signs a 3 year, at the end I believe he would have arbitration rights so if he wants to go UFA he would elect arbitration, the club would elect a 2 year deal and at the end of that contract it is adios. Same with a 2yr deal I believe.
Here's what I think he's getting at. Right now, Johansen has three years of pro experience and is four years away from being a UFA.
If I understand correctly, then he's asking about the following possibility.
1) Johansen signs a new contract with Columbus for three years (taking him to July 1, 2017).
2) Upon the expiration of that contract, he will still be an RFA with arbitration rights.
3) It would theoretically be possible for a new team (in this case, Vancouver) to give Johansen a one-year offer sheet for an obscenely low amount, with a handshake agreement to give him a massive contract either as a UFA or as a new contract extension.
3A) If Columbus matches the offer sheet, they could not trade Johansen for one calendar year from the date of matching. (Article 10.3(b) - "The Prior Club may not Trade that Restricted Free Agent for a period of one year from the date it exercises its Right of First Refusal.")
3B) If Columbus declines to match the offer sheet, they lose Johansen as an RFA for basically nothing.
My statement was that, although this is theoretically possible, there are too many elements to consider this as realistic:
- Columbus would raise holy hell about this, as would every other team
- The NHL would immediately investigate, with a pretty good likelihood of hammering Vancouver with penalties
- The NHLPA would be absolutely livid with Johansen and his agent for both taking a low salary (even for a single year) and then skipping the UFA market entirely
Now, let's say that Johansen does in fact sign a three-year deal with Columbus this offseason, making this scenario technically possible. There is a mechanism to possibly prevent the doomsday plot above from happening, and it's in Section 12.4(a). It states:
"
A Club electing salary arbitration pursuant to Section 12.3(a) above
must do so by making a written request, in accordance with Exhibit 3 hereto, utilizing the form attached hereto as Exhibit 22, to the parties listed in Section (c) below
by not later than 5:00 p.m. New York time on the later of June 15 or 48 hours after the conclusion of the Stanley Cup Finals in the League Year prior to the League Year for which the Club seeks to determine a Player's Paragraph 1 Salary by salary arbitration."
This means that Columbus could elect to offer arbitration to Johansen two full weeks before the three-year contract expires, thus severely cramping the time frame. Johansen could sign an offer sheet, but it would have to be done by July 5 of that year (Section 12.3(a)(iv)).
In addition, the number that Columbus would file on Johansen would have to be equal to or higher than what he would have just made the previous year (2016-17). The likelihood of him taking a one-year offer sheet from Vancouver for much less than the
club-filed offer in arbitration is extremely low, and it would (again) undoubtedly trigger an NHL investigation.