RW Tom Wilson - Plymouth Whalers, OHL (Washington Capitals)

[puckfan13]

Did everybody already forget about Colton Gillies? He had an extremely similar scouting report and struggles to put up 10 pts in an entire season. Scouts fall in love with these toolsy guys. The offense has to be there at junior or it isn't going to be there at pro. If the hockey sense isn't there it's probably not developing overnight. Lucic is an abberation amongst abberations. I will stay far away from this prospect and play the odds, thank you very much.

 

[pooleboy]

Thomas Wilson (in red)
RW / RHS | 6'4 / 203
29-Mar-94 Toronto, Ontario

 Season			Team		League	GP	G	A	TP	PIM	    	Postseason	GP	G	A	TP	PIM 
 2010-2011	 Plymouth Whalers	 OHL	28	3	3	6	71	|	 	 	 	 	 	  
 	 		Canada Ontario U17	WHC-17	4	0	1	1	6	|	 	 	 	 	 	  
 2011-2012	 Plymouth Whalers	 OHL	49	9	18	27	141	|	 Playoffs	2	0	0	0	8

TSN's Grant McCagg:

Turned heads at the Ivan Hlinka U-18 tournament last summer with his energetic, physical play, but then struggled to produce offensively at the start of the OHL season.

Strengths: One of the more rugged prospects in the draft, loves to throw his weight around, and not afraid to drop the gloves. Strong, decent straight ahead skater, competitive, works hard at both ends of the ice.

Weaknesses: Won't ever put up offensive numbers, has limited offensive skills, average hands, poor puck skills, below average agility.

NHL upside: Has the size and toughness along with straight ahead speed to be a regular lower-line NHL player with a physical presence.​

gotta love young 3rd line players like this, even if he doesnt become a 3rd a 4th is good enough for big energy guys and worth a shot at upside to a top 6 (doubt it but u never know).

 

[HockeyNightInBelfast]

A lot of debate & chit-chat about Tom Wilson still especially given how he is performing in the playoffs (PPG pace).

Will this late surge make him a definite 1st rounder now?

 

[thrillhous]

Certain GMs just need the tiniest excuse to draft a big rough and tumble guy like Wilson so yes, the playoff run has in my view solidified that he will be a 1st rounder.

 

[QMJHLfollower]

Did everybody already forget about Colton Gillies? He had an extremely similar scouting report and struggles to put up 10 pts in an entire season. Scouts fall in love with these toolsy guys. The offense has to be there at junior or it isn't going to be there at pro. If the hockey sense isn't there it's probably not developing overnight. Lucic is an abberation amongst abberations. I will stay far away from this prospect and play the odds, thank you very much.

First, Gillies was rushed by the Wild.

Second, we need to take chance on big junior power forwards. I know that there's not a lot of them that turn out to be top 6 power forward like Lucic, but the more you have in your system, the more you have chance to have one who develop like Lucic. The others that will not develop like Lucic will probably be solid physical bottom 6'er, exactly what you need in the playoffs.

So for the Leafs, if we draft Wilson, we'll have guy like Wilson, Ashton, Biggs, etc. that maybe have the chance to develop into that top 6 power forward that we need. If not, they will probably be solid physical bottom 6'er like I said.

 

[Circulartheory]

I don't get how people don't see the incentive of drafting Wilson.

Yes, I know people hate getting third line players in the first round, but drafting a guy that is sure to be one, while having an upside of a top six forward, is a win-win situation. I would be all for it.

However, I think there is a lot of talent in this draft in defense, so I would expect Wilson to go late 1st-mid 2nd.

With names like Lindholm, Bystrom and Thrower rising up, it'll definitely be interesting to see where Wilson goes.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

What says Wilson will even be a third line player? Most third line players in the NHL were better scorers than Wilson in their junior days.

 

[Circulartheory]

What says Wilson will even be a third line player? Most third line players in the NHL were better scorers than Wilson in their junior days.

I'm checking stats but should I also include his 13 pts in 13 games to his regular season total for my comparison?

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I'm checking stats but should I also include his 13 pts in 13 games to his regular season total for my comparison?

Sure.

I wonder what the number of players with similar numbers who didn't make the NHL is though...Anyway, if Wilson is two inches shorter, does anyone even talk about him in the first three rounds?

 

[projexns]

First, Gillies was rushed by the Wild.

Second, we need to take chance on big junior power forwards. I know that there's not a lot of them that turn out to be top 6 power forward like Lucic, but the more you have in your system, the more you have chance to have one who develop like Lucic. The others that will not develop like Lucic will probably be solid physical bottom 6'er, exactly what you need in the playoffs.

So for the Leafs, if we draft Wilson, we'll have guy like Wilson, Ashton, Biggs, etc. that maybe have the chance to develop into that top 6 power forward that we need. If not, they will probably be solid physical bottom 6'er like I said.

Anyone who looks at Wilson's size and PIM totals and is expecting another Lucic is going to be very disappointed. Wilson is a very, very underwhelming fighter. In the NHL he will not be an enforcer but rather a tomato can.......

 

[DekeLikeYouMeanIt]

The kid is a real gamer. Won't slip past the 1st round for sure.

 

[McDNicks17]

Anyone who looks at Wilson's size and PIM totals and is expecting another Lucic is going to be very disappointed. Wilson is a very, very underwhelming fighter. In the NHL he will not be an enforcer but rather a tomato can.......

Yup. He's definitely a student of the Zack Stortini School of Fighting.

 

[Circulartheory]

Sure.

I wonder what the number of players with similar numbers who didn't make the NHL is though...Anyway, if Wilson is two inches shorter, does anyone even talk about him in the first three rounds?

You mean if he was a 6'2 195lbs who can play in any forward position, drives to the net, wins puck battles along the boards, plays a very skilled downlow game, decent skating, great character, and has promise in his finish around the net?

Sounds like a bottom first round pick to me.

 

[Doomsday Device]

I've listed the lowest points per game totals by 1st round CHL forwards in the last 15 years if I inlcude Wilson.

1. Mike Rupp 0.42
2. Colton Gillies 0.46
3. Tom Wilson 0.55
4. Ben Eager 0.58
5. Brent Burns 0.58
6. Nathan Smith 0.69
7. Carter Ashton 0.71
8. Kyle Chipchura 0.75
9. Brian Sutherby 0.75
10. Michael Grabner 0.75

As you can see, Wilson's scoring numbers are historically bad, and this is a pretty poor list of players.

Brent Burns isn't even a forward anymore so I'll ignore him. Ashton is still up in the air.

The rest are 4th liners at best, save for Grabner. Grabner's goals per game was the same as Wilson's points per game and has just always had incredibly low assist totals and isn't a similar player at all.

If you're drafting Wilson, you're most likely getting a easily replaceable 4th line type, so I'd hope my team's GM steers clear of him in the 1st round.

 

[QMJHLfollower]

Anyone who looks at Wilson's size and PIM totals and is expecting another Lucic is going to be very disappointed. Wilson is a very, very underwhelming fighter. In the NHL he will not be an enforcer but rather a tomato can.......

Not necessarily an enforcer, but a physical player.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

You mean if he was a 6'2 195lbs who can play in any forward position, drives to the net, wins puck battles along the boards, plays a very skilled downlow game, decent skating, great character, and has promise in his finish around the net?

Sounds like a bottom first round pick to me.

The thing is that decent skating, great character, good board play, etc., can be found in UFA every offseason on 1yr/1M deal. Don't want my team wasting a 1st round pick on that.

The statistical comps above are pretty damning.

 

[Pick Six]

Stats are all well and good, and I know HF loves them (especially PPG), but they're not an important factor come draft day. Wilson has a ton of projectable tools that could make him a great player at the next level and his early selection in June will reflect that.

 

[ocarina]

Stats are all well and good, and I know HF loves them (especially PPG), but they're not an important factor come draft day. Wilson has a ton of projectable tools that could make him a great player at the next level and his early selection in June will reflect that.

While I tend to agree that stats are overplayed, Wilson's numbers are so low that I have to even question if he has enough skill to make it to the league.

All those tools he potentially has will not help him if he isn't talented enough to produce.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Stats are all well and good, and I know HF loves them (especially PPG), but they're not an important factor come draft day. Wilson has a ton of projectable tools that could make him a great player at the next level and his early selection in June will reflect that.

Stats are actually the best way to project a prospect, especially if you account for age and strength of team. If you picked simply off adjusted ppg then you would have done far better than most NHL teams the last 10-20 years (this is a fact).

That is not to say you ignore things like intangibles, but they should be used a supplement.

 

[puckfan13]

I've listed the lowest points per game totals by 1st round CHL forwards in the last 15 years if I inlcude Wilson.

1. Mike Rupp 0.42
2. Colton Gillies 0.46
3. Tom Wilson 0.55
4. Ben Eager 0.58
5. Brent Burns 0.58
6. Nathan Smith 0.69
7. Carter Ashton 0.71
8. Kyle Chipchura 0.75
9. Brian Sutherby 0.75
10. Michael Grabner 0.75

As you can see, Wilson's scoring numbers are historically bad, and this is a pretty poor list of players.

Brent Burns isn't even a forward anymore so I'll ignore him. Ashton is still up in the air.

The rest are 4th liners at best, save for Grabner. Grabner's goals per game was the same as Wilson's points per game and has just always had incredibly low assist totals and isn't a similar player at all.

If you're drafting Wilson, you're most likely getting a easily replaceable 4th line type, so I'd hope my team's GM steers clear of him in the 1st round.

I'd say this is pretty damning evidence. I hate looking at junior player's stats but when they are so low, you just have to take it into account.

 

[BigBlue11]

Stats are actually the best way to project a prospect, especially if you account for age and strength of team. If you picked simply off adjusted ppg then you would have done far better than most NHL teams the last 10-20 years (this is a fact).
That is not to say you ignore things like intangibles, but they should be used a supplement.

Not denying it at all, but I'd love to see the proof for this

 

[Circulartheory]

I'd say this is pretty damning evidence. I hate looking at junior player's stats but when they are so low, you just have to take it into account.

James Neal, a 2nd round pick, was 0.647 PPG in his draft year.

Just saying

 

[Pick Six]

While I tend to agree that stats are overplayed, Wilson's numbers are so low that I have to even question if he has enough skill to make it to the league.

All those tools he potentially has will not help him if he isn't talented enough to produce.

By all accounts he is talented, though. Talking to some knowledgeable people about his game thus far in the playoffs, and they're really impressed. The draft is all about projecting to the next level, not about what a player is right now.

Stats are actually the best way to project a prospect, especially if you account for age and strength of team. If you picked simply off adjusted ppg then you would have done far better than most NHL teams the last 10-20 years (this is a fact).

That is not to say you ignore things like intangibles, but they should be used a supplement.

Now that's a whole can of worms that I really don't have the time nor the effort to get into. If this is really true you should let some NHL teams know. I like to go off of live viewings and/or talking to people who's opinions I trust.

James Neal, a 2nd round pick, was 0.647 PPG in his draft year.

Just saying

Milan Lucic, 2nd round pick, .306 PPG in his draft year .

 

[Circulartheory]

Milan Lucic, 2nd round pick, .306 PPG in his draft year .

Bryan Bickell (0.59PPG his draft year) seems to be doing well for himself this season as well.

Also heard Blake Comeau is a decent bottom sixer as well (0.443)

Tyler Kennedy (0.667), Troy Brouwer (0.634), Brooks Laich? (0.4)

 

[Pick Six]

Bryan Bickell (0.59PPG his draft year) seems to be doing well for himself this season as well.

Also heard Blake Comeau is a decent bottom sixer as well (0.443)

Tyler Kennedy (0.667), Troy Brouwer (0.634)

Ryan Callahan (0.525 PPG in his first draft year - got drafted 2nd time around). We're making a pretty solid team here.